Door-to-door voting in Russia-occupied parts of Ukraine. Totally normal, nothing to see here https://t.co/RZk41KQQok

— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) September 23, 2022

lb3 said:

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aginresearch said:

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I don't think Russia as we have known it survives this mobilization. Their medium term demographic collapse has been accelerated to now.

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Any chance the west can carve St. Petersburg out of Russia? In the chaos of a Coup or Revolution, I could see an opportunity for St.Petersburg to declare independence and form a 4th Baltic state.

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No way. Putin goes nuclear before that happens.

lb3 said:

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aginresearch said:

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I don't think Russia as we have known it survives this mobilization. Their medium term demographic collapse has been accelerated to now.

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Any chance the west can carve St. Petersburg out of Russia? In the chaos of a Coup or Revolution, I could see an opportunity for St.Petersburg to declare independence and form a 4th Baltic state.

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The only proven protection nuclear weapons give you is that nobody will attack your mainland.

I think its foolish to try to go after St. Petersburg. Why go after it at all?

Just let Russia implode.

one MEEN Ag said:

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lb3 said:

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aginresearch said:

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I don't think Russia as we have known it survives this mobilization. Their medium term demographic collapse has been accelerated to now.

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Any chance the west can carve St. Petersburg out of Russia? In the chaos of a Coup or Revolution, I could see an opportunity for St.Petersburg to declare independence and form a 4th Baltic state.

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The only proven protection nuclear weapons give you is that nobody will attack your mainland.

I think its foolish to try to go after St. Petersburg. Why go after it at all?

Just let Russia implode.

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Just need to keep Russian from invading its neighbors, no need to meddle in their internal chaos. Let them eat themselves. Europe needs to develop a better energy policy anyway.

LMCane said:

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2wealfth Man said:

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This northern prong will consist of what kind of material and equipment? Anything pointed toward Kiev or Lviv gets shredded without even a moments pause. That would be life or death for the Ukes.

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as another poster mentioned above- the Russkies could use Belarus territory to make a play for Kyiv and Lviv.

I could see that as at least a feint to draw attention and forces away from Kherson and Luhansk Oblast where Russia is being pounded every hour.

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The problem with this theory, besides the fact that Russia already failed to handle it logistically once (while everything was fresh even), is that last time Russia had the benefit of "surprise". They were able to amass military assets right at the border because there wasn't a war going on so they could build them up in plain sight and no one was going to strike a military installation in another country. Now, if Russia tried to build up troops any reasonable distance from the border of UA controlled Ukraine, they are going to get struck regardless of who's border they sit within. At this point if they are within reach and clearly RU military, they are a fair game military target. I would wager they are actually less safe in Belarus because then you don't even have the "direct attack on Russian soil" aspect to worry about.

one MEEN Ag said:

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lb3 said:

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aginresearch said:

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I don't think Russia as we have known it survives this mobilization. Their medium term demographic collapse has been accelerated to now.

---

Any chance the west can carve St. Petersburg out of Russia? In the chaos of a Coup or Revolution, I could see an opportunity for St.Petersburg to declare independence and form a 4th Baltic state.

---

The only proven protection nuclear weapons give you is that nobody will attack your mainland.

I think its foolish to try to go after St. Petersburg. Why go after it at all?

Just let Russia implode.

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I'm not suggesting an invasion of St. Petersburg, just wondering if during an implosion, St. Petersburg could be enticed to declare independence and come out the other side as a sovereign nation state.

That drone got smoked.

Putin's approach may be to run Ukraine out of bullets before Russia runs out of soldiers. DESPERATION

lb3 said:

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one MEEN Ag said:

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lb3 said:

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aginresearch said:

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I don't think Russia as we have known it survives this mobilization. Their medium term demographic collapse has been accelerated to now.

---

Any chance the west can carve St. Petersburg out of Russia? In the chaos of a Coup or Revolution, I could see an opportunity for St.Petersburg to declare independence and form a 4th Baltic state.

---

The only proven protection nuclear weapons give you is that nobody will attack your mainland.

I think its foolish to try to go after St. Petersburg. Why go after it at all?

Just let Russia implode.

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I'm not suggesting an invasion of St. Petersburg, just wondering if during an implosion, St. Petersburg could be enticed to declare independence and come out the other side as a sovereign nation state.

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No intel from me, but when I think of 'Russian culture' its really just St. Petersburg and Moscow. I think Russia if it broke up would be those two cities and everything around them being the continued power of Russia. Everything on the east side of the Ural mountains is probably going to be easy pickings for China to take over as a resource grab.

74OA said:

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Putin's approach may be to run Ukraine out of bullets before Russia runs out of soldiers. DESPERATION

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Then he's even dumber than we thought.

Ukrainian collaborators being hunted down. TRAITORS

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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LMCane said:

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2wealfth Man said:

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This northern prong will consist of what kind of material and equipment? Anything pointed toward Kiev or Lviv gets shredded without even a moments pause. That would be life or death for the Ukes.

---

as another poster mentioned above- the Russkies could use Belarus territory to make a play for Kyiv and Lviv.

I could see that as at least a feint to draw attention and forces away from Kherson and Luhansk Oblast where Russia is being pounded every hour.

---

The problem with this theory, besides the fact that Russia already failed to handle it logistically once (while everything was fresh even), is that last time Russia had the benefit of "surprise". They were able to amass military assets right at the border because there wasn't a war going on so they could build them up in plain sight and no one was going to strike a military installation in another country. Now, if Russia tried to build up troops any reasonable distance from the border of UA controlled Ukraine, they are going to get struck regardless of who's border they sit within. At this point if they are within reach and clearly RU military, they are a fair game military target. I would wager they are actually less safe in Belarus because then you don't even have the "direct attack on Russian soil" aspect to worry about.

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good point

although in Putin's mind, he may actually want to invite Uke strikes into Belarus

to force Lukashenko into having to "defend Belarus" against Ukrainian aggression.

one MEEN Ag said:

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Whatever company made that anti-drone vehicle is putting this in the company slide deck for its end of year review.

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other posters from yesterday put up articles claiming Israeli companies are now selling the anti-UAV weapons

in order to crush the Iranian deliveries to Putin

LMCane said:

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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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LMCane said:

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2wealfth Man said:

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This northern prong will consist of what kind of material and equipment? Anything pointed toward Kiev or Lviv gets shredded without even a moments pause. That would be life or death for the Ukes.

---

as another poster mentioned above- the Russkies could use Belarus territory to make a play for Kyiv and Lviv.

I could see that as at least a feint to draw attention and forces away from Kherson and Luhansk Oblast where Russia is being pounded every hour.

---

The problem with this theory, besides the fact that Russia already failed to handle it logistically once (while everything was fresh even), is that last time Russia had the benefit of "surprise". They were able to amass military assets right at the border because there wasn't a war going on so they could build them up in plain sight and no one was going to strike a military installation in another country. Now, if Russia tried to build up troops any reasonable distance from the border of UA controlled Ukraine, they are going to get struck regardless of who's border they sit within. At this point if they are within reach and clearly RU military, they are a fair game military target. I would wager they are actually less safe in Belarus because then you don't even have the "direct attack on Russian soil" aspect to worry about.

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good point

although in Putin's mind, he may actually want to invite Uke strikes into Belarus

to force Lukashenko into having to "defend Belarus" against Ukrainian aggression.

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sort of like the Austrian anschluss

Chechnya says "nyet" to conscription. EXEMPT

UN documents rape of children by Russian soldiers. ANIMALS

evidently stairs are as dangerous as windows in Russia.

Anatoly Gerashchenko, the former head of Moscow’s Aviation Institute (MAI), died in a mysterious fall inside the institute’s headquarters in the Russian capital on Tuesday.https://t.co/HZTZkWqry5

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) September 21, 2022

74OA said:

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Putin Goes To Bed Disappointed As Support For Joining Russia Struggles To Breach 250% In Faux Annexation Referendum pic.twitter.com/KRybEsVj5D

— Le Chou News (@LeChouNews) September 23, 2022

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He shouldn't worry. I am sure the overnight count of mail in ballots will swing his way

"NATO countries will increase military assistance to Ukraine in response to referendums"

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) September 23, 2022

Russian forces are attempting counterattacks North East of Drobysheve in a futile attempt to stop a Ukrainian flank on Lyman.

Fighting continues in some areas of the settlement. pic.twitter.com/ilJSTznVbv

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) September 23, 2022

From Russian TG channel "Notes of a Veteran" pic.twitter.com/YQbYVwaXQU

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) September 23, 2022

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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Putin's approach may be to run Ukraine out of bullets before Russia runs out of soldiers. DESPERATION

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Then he's even dumber than we thought.

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US and its allies are already working to ensure that doesn't happen. RESUPPLY

74OA said:

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AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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Putin's approach may be to run Ukraine out of bullets before Russia runs out of soldiers. DESPERATION

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Then he's even dumber than we thought.

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US and its allies are already working to ensure that doesn't happen. RESUPPLY

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I'm sure TexAgs subscribers alone could round up several million rounds of 5.56 out of our gun closets before Ukraine's magazines go empty...

Please pardon my ignorance, but is the acquisition of Ukraine an existential necessity for the rus? I don't see that and I can't understand why they're betting all their chips on this particular hand. I understand that this may now be an existential issue for Putin the man, but for the country itself?

Keep thinking that someone high enough is going to see this and take Putin out.

agent-maroon said:

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Please pardon my ignorance, but is the acquisition of Ukraine an existential necessity for the rus? I don't see that and I can't understand why they're betting all their chips on this particular hand. I understand that this may now be an existential issue for Putin the man, but for the country itself?

Keep thinking that someone high enough is going to see this and take Putin out.

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Putin believes it's a matter of survivability. Becasue NATO is going to storm in.