***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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FamousAgg
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3:39p, 9/21/22
Remember that Russians have ignored orders and averted a nuclear exchange in the past.

Basically here was a false radar signal showing potential launches from the US. He disobeyed protocol and did not launch his warheads.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
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MouthBQ98
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3:43p, 9/21/22
AG
Twice a Soviet officer has refused a standing order to launch a nuclear attack and averted a needless nuclear exchange.

It's always a threat. There is the classic dark satirical comedy Dr Strangelove that covers it the topic.

The current tensions are not a good development in that arena, but we would observe their actual readiness posture change if they were serious about a nuclear attack.
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fooz
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3:47p, 9/21/22
Bold strategy.


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74OA
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3:48p, 9/21/22
AG
Russian seaborne oil exports fall dramatically. CRATERING

Gonna be increasingly tough feeding, clothing and equipping all those reservists.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to agent-maroon • 3:49p, 9/21/22
AG
Russia has smart pockets (they build most of the rockets for space ships) and are good with stuff like biological weapons (both of which could be traced back to German scientist they got for WWII) but overall the average education of the population is middle school.

I used to think the Russian Spetsnaz was elite like our special operations troops, not even close. I thought they drew the bad straws at some hostage situations in the past which is also wrong. They are not as capable and don't plan nearly as well.
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CondensedFogAggie
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In reply to Not a Bot • 4:16p, 9/21/22
Private PoopyPants said:

There is zero chance whoever filmed this isn't talking with the Ukrainian authorities. Hopefully it's being trailed and tagged until it gets within HIMARS range.
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CondensedFogAggie
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 4:19p, 9/21/22
Agthatbuilds said:



They are going to fall out of a window soon

They don't even bother to cover up the assassinations. Like disguise it as a heart attack or something that a good civilised assassin would do.

Nope. They just walk in, chuck the dude out the window, and call it a day.
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CondensedFogAggie
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4:26p, 9/21/22
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CondensedFogAggie
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4:32p, 9/21/22


I forgot Russia has a mandatory 1 year conscription period for all males. Unless you paid someone off or were exempt, etc.

So this 'partial mobilization' is in fact a de facto full mobilization.

Jesus.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to agent-maroon • 4:32p, 9/21/22
AG
agent-maroon said:
How can you not be using forklifts? Not that this was a great idea or perhaps even legal, but I was driving a forklift all over a water bottling business just after I had my DL at age 15! Is the problem in affording the investment or is it "skilled" labor or what?

I used to think the rus were smart. I don't think that anymore.


My last company decided to outsource some work because Indians could do it for 1/3 the hourly cost. Nevermind that it took them 5x the time.

That's the Russian level of thinking
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CondensedFogAggie
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 4:35p, 9/21/22
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CondensedFogAggie
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4:39p, 9/21/22
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GAC06
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 4:39p, 9/21/22
AG
A "Special Mobilization Operation" if you will
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aggiehawg
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4:45p, 9/21/22
AG


Quote:
Russia's Duma passed a new law yesterday that makes desertion a crime punishable by up to 10 years in prison. So anyone who does leave could be facing serious consequences if they ever decide to return. But obviously a lot of people are thinking they'd rather risk that than taking a bullet in Ukraine.

Finally, it's worth noting that because of the way things work in Russia, no one with power or connections expects to be called up for military service. Alexei Navalny's people made a prank phone call to the son of Putin's press secretary telling him he'd been ordered to report at 10 am for military service. He made it clear that he would not be coming and would resolve the problem "on another level."
Via Hot Air
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AgLA06
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 4:45p, 9/21/22
AG
CondensedFoggyAggie said:


I forgot Russia has a mandatory 1 year conscription period for all males. Unless you paid someone off or were exempt, etc.

So this 'partial mobilization' is in fact a de facto full mobilization.

Jesus.


I don't believe that is correct. I believe someone posted something previously that after physical issues, class status, and economic benefits were considered, only a fraction of those eligible actually did any service. And that year is mostly a waste of everyone's time. Unless you sign up for long term contract, you don't get any real training or experience.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 4:52p, 9/21/22
CondensedFoggyAggie said:

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CondensedFogAggie
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 4:56p, 9/21/22
Agthatbuilds said:



The original tweet I pasted was deleted, so also deleting my post in case that document was fake.
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2wealfth Man
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 5:17p, 9/21/22
AG
CondensedFoggyAggie said:
Agthatbuilds said:



The original tweet I pasted was deleted, so also deleting my post in case that document was fake.
Those guys are really going to be 'in it to win it"
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lobopride
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 5:25p, 9/21/22
If I were them I would pretend to have a change of heart and to be "gung-ho" for the war effort all the looking for a way to slink away at first chance.
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JFABNRGR
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5:25p, 9/21/22
AG
If there is anything the russians have been successful at it's imprisoning and killing their own people and sadly it's successful because they allow it to happen to their fellow citizens. Scenes posted above show hardly any protest to the arrests and the boy snatched for military service was tattled on by his own neighbors. It seems another chapter to the Gulag Archipelago is being written.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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NoVAag91
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In reply to torrid • 5:59p, 9/21/22
AG
I see what you did there …
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GarryowenAg
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6:10p, 9/21/22
AG



If this is true, I hope to see photos of all these brave fighters soon.

Edit 3: already seeing some photos. Those boys look so emaciated.




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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to wangus12 • 6:21p, 9/21/22
AG
wangus12 said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Color me shocked the rich kids don't want to go to war. So unpatriotic


Time for a Russian translated version of Fortunate Son
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Waffledynamics
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6:50p, 9/21/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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7:06p, 9/21/22
AG


Right away, it sounds like Lyman is on deck. Ukraine's made progress in that direction.

At 2:05, Russia tried and failed to attack Kupyansk. Ukraine already has defense lines set up.

At 6:46, Denys talks about some progress on the North part of the Kherson pocket. Ukraine is slowly advancing.

At 10:16, he shows an alleged Russian advertisement for someone to break your arm so that you won't be conscripted for the war. The price is 1,500 Rubles.

Much of the rest of the video is about information already discussed here.
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80sGeorge
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:21p, 9/21/22
AG
Yeah, those guys are real bastions of transparency
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74OA
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7:42p, 9/21/22
AG
Massive POW swap. AZOV
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lb3
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In reply to 74OA • 7:45p, 9/21/22
AG
Was this a 215 for 1 swap?
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GarryowenAg
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In reply to lb3 • 7:47p, 9/21/22
AG
Yes. A page earlier I posted a few photos. Good stuff
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:52p, 9/21/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Sounds legit.
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agent-maroon
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7:56p, 9/21/22
AG
Laugh at Nork weapons at your own peril. This is the same country that put an astronaut on the sun and as impressive of a feat that would be no matter who did it - they got him there and back the same morning for a noon press conference.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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74OA
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In reply to lb3 • 7:57p, 9/21/22
AG
lb3 said:
Was this a 215 for 1 swap?
Come on, the answer is in the very first sentence of the article.
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lb3
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In reply to 74OA • 8:03p, 9/21/22
AG
74OA said:
lb3 said:
Was this a 215 for 1 swap?
Come on, the answer is in the very first sentence of the article.
It gave the name of a single Russian. It didn't say whether he was the only one in the trade. Given the headaches releasing Azov fighters will cause Putin, I'm shocked he felt one man was worth so much.
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10thYrSr
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In reply to 74OA • 8:07p, 9/21/22
74OA said:
Massive POW swap. AZOV



Maybe Putin made the swap because he plans to escalate bombing and didn't want his guy being a casualty? All the Ukes will be returning and can be killed in the bombing, whereas if the POWs were killed in RUS, it could be problematic.

Trying to rationalize such a disproportionate exchange.
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74OA
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In reply to lb3 • 8:09p, 9/21/22
AG
lb3 said:
74OA said:
lb3 said:
Was this a 215 for 1 swap?
Come on, the answer is in the very first sentence of the article.
It gave the name of a single Russian. It didn't say whether he was the only one in the trade. Given the headaches releasing Azov fighters will cause Putin, I'm shocked he felt one man was worth so much.
"Ukraine and Russia have completed a prisoner swap in which hundreds of fighters and civilians were returned to Ukraine in exchange for the freeing of 55 Russians and Viktor Medvedchuk, Putin's key ally in Ukraine and his daughter's godfather."
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