***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,612,399 Views | 47851 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by 74OA
PJYoung
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tremble said:

French nuclear should be coming back online this fall so the issues with gas can be somewhat ameliorated. It's going to be a ****ty winter for a lot of Europe though.

Macron gave a gangbusters speech yesterday at the UN and the Europeans have belatedly realized that everything we told them for the last decade plus about Russia was true. I think they will tough it out and it will cause further anger against Russia when things in Europe get tough.

Interesting article from yesterday

France sets course for a nuclear renaissance

About-turn raises many challenges after technology's long wilderness period

Quote:

As Europe's energy crisis and climate concerns swing momentum back behind nuclear power, the plans to build new reactor plants in France should have been a boost for an industry emerging from two decades of political reproval and dried up order books.

Instead, France's nuclear renaissance, one of the most ambitious of the revivals contemplated by a growing number of governments, has been fraught with concerns. Critics question whether constructors still have the knowhow to build reactors and deliver them on time, and whether they can find enough people to get the work done.

"We'd been told for years: please, prepare yourselves to shut reactors," Jean-Bernard Lvy, the outgoing chief executive of state-controlled French nuclear site operator EDF, told a conference in Paris in August. He was flanked by a government minister as he delivered his rebuke and warned of a lack of qualified construction staff.

"Clearly, we didn't hire people to build 12 reactors, we hired people to dismantle them," he noted.
CondensedFogAggie
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Russian troops were already freezing and starving a few months ago when their offensive started stalling.

They lost a **** ton of materials, logistics, and soldiers, and now they're going to throw in reserves into the teeth of winter? Against Ukrainians that are better armed every day? Whom US and the entirety of Europe will continue to supply winter uniforms/gear, ammo, and more and more artillery?

Ukraine has shown they can be both on the offensive and defensive depending on the situation. A ton of Russians are going to die.
atmtws
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Hypothetical: how does NATO/the world react if Putin were to lob a nuke over into Ukraine?
/W\ Saw 'Em Off! /W\
BTHO tu.
AlaskanAg99
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Germany may have gas reserves, but it paid an extremely high price for it that will devastating impacts on industry and citizens. What good is having NG available if you can't afford to use it?

On the other topic, we need to discuss what utility the UN even brings anymore. We foot the majority of the bill, they refuse to be audited and appear to be useless in doing anything. All it does is allow access to their countries elites to abandon the country they represent.
PJYoung
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TXAggie2011 said:

tremble said:

French nuclear should be coming back online this fall so the issues with gas can be somewhat ameliorated. It's going to be a ****ty winter for a lot of Europe though.
I hope this helps the world embrace nuclear power again
It absolutely is and I think that's a pretty exciting prospect for a lot of us more conservative types.
chickencoupe16
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tremble said:

HumpitPuryear said:

aginresearch said:

The problem for Putin is that it is the United States who is funding this war by and large. We can do this all day long. NATO is just window dressing.
If Europe wants the gas turned back on bad enough to make concessions to Putin we aren't going to be sending arms to Ukraine. It might even become physically impossible even if we wanted to. We supply arms through NATO countries with their cooperation. Putin is banking on that situation ending.


Which NATO countries are going to prohibit the ****ing United States of America from shipping weapons to Ukraine?

It's sure as hell isn't Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Sweden, or Finland. It also sure as hell isn't France who's going to tell us to stop.


Exactly. Poland is the only country that we need to supply Ukraine and they're not stopping us anytime soon; they know too much about how Russia operates.
PJYoung
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atmtws said:

Hypothetical: how does NATO/the world react if Putin were to lob a nuke over into Ukraine?
It's been discussed a ton in the past 7 months and the consensus is that the US holds several cards that would make the calculus much, much too painful for Putin to follow through.

It's so unlikely it's not really worth talking about but Putin has been threatening it since Day 1.
AgLA06
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Probably why the nationalized the utilities, no? They'll cap the cost and take the hit at the national level.

Everyone is betting on new LNG terminals to be ready before next winter. While that would mean large revenues for domestic companies it will also mean higher domestic prices in the US.
74OA
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PJYoung said:

atmtws said:

Hypothetical: how does NATO/the world react if Putin were to lob a nuke over into Ukraine?
It's been discussed a ton in the past 7 months and the consensus is that the US holds several cards that would make the calculus much, much too painful for Putin to follow through.

It's so unlikely it's not really worth talking about but Putin has been threatening it since Day 1.
Exactly. Read the thread. That hypothetical has been discussed to death.
74OA
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AgLA06 said:

Probably why the nationalized the utilities, no? They'll cap the cost and take the hit at the national level.

Everyone is betting on new LNG terminals to be ready before next winter. While that would mean large revenues for domestic companies it will also mean higher domestic prices in the US.
LNG TERMINALS
chickencoupe16
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atmtws said:

Hypothetical: how does NATO/the world react if Putin were to lob a nuke over into Ukraine?


I think we find out about some classified systems that make us think we're living in a Clancy novel.
74OA
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The Russian army has one basic training base. Lots of other insights.

AgLA06
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Yep.

Russia makes money on 2 exports. Vodka and fossil fuels.

Russia didn't shut off the fuel right away because they couldn't. They needed the money to fund the war. It was empty threats. Supposedly this month their monetary reserves went from a surplus (fuel money) to a deficit.

Russia shifted a lot of the sales to Asia, but they sure as heck aren't paying a premium. They've got all the leverage.
SouthTex99
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FriscoKid
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https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572270599535214598.html
ABATTBQ11
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I'm not sure there would be a nuclear response. We COULD strike Russian military bases with conventional weapons and handicap their military completely. Eliminate aircraft, ships, armor, etc and degrade their capabilities to the point that any conflict would be a losing proposition. Basically, "We're not going to kill everyone in a nuclear exchange, but this war and all future wars are over for you. Retaliate again, and nukes will be the only option left."

I think we've seen from their performance in Ukraine that that is a realistic option. Russian forces are simply outmatched by modern Western weaponry, logistical prowess, and coordination.
74OA
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AgLA06 said:

Yep.

Russia makes money on 2 exports. Vodka and fossil fuels.

Russia didn't shut off the fuel right away because they couldn't. They needed the money to fund the war. It was empty threats. Supposedly this month their monetary reserves went from a surplus (fuel money) to a deficit.

Russia shifted a lot of the sales to Asia, but they sure as heck aren't paying a premium. They've got all the leverage.
Particularly since ~$350B of Putin's ~$600B "war chest" has been impounded in western banks.
74OA
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Russian reservists are fleeing mobilization. AIRFARE
74OA
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FriscoKid said:



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572270599535214598.html
Extracting 300K working aged men from an economy struggling with labor shortages even before the war is certainly high risk.
FriscoKid
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tremble
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74OA said:

AgLA06 said:

Yep.

Russia makes money on 2 exports. Vodka and fossil fuels.

Russia didn't shut off the fuel right away because they couldn't. They needed the money to fund the war. It was empty threats. Supposedly this month their monetary reserves went from a surplus (fuel money) to a deficit.

Russia shifted a lot of the sales to Asia, but they sure as heck aren't paying a premium. They've got all the leverage.
Particularly since ~$350B of Putin's ~$600B "war chest" has been impounded in western banks.


And he can't buy components for missiles, air craft, etc.
Teslag
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Could a lob a small yield nuke into Chernobyl? It's a 30km uninhabited zone and already radioactive. Or would that piss off Belarus too?
AlaskanAg99
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Simply put, blockage any and all Russian naval activity. All transports are seized on the high seas. Nothing in or out via water.

Those that do business with Russia find themselves in the cold as well. Deport people with work visas from those countries and close our markets to them.
PJYoung
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Teslag said:

Could a lob a small yield nuke into Chernobyl? It's a 30km uninhabited zone and already radioactive. Or would that piss off Belarus too?


Our response to a nuke would probably be something on the order of Russia losing their Baltic fleet instantly.
AgBank
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PJYoung said:



Our response to a nuke would probably be something on the order of Russia losing their Baltic fleet instantly.
- Suggested by Gen. Ben Hodges.
2wealfth Man
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AgLA06 said:

Yep.

Russia makes money on 2 exports. Vodka and fossil fuels.

Russia didn't shut off the fuel right away because they couldn't. They needed the money to fund the war. It was empty threats. Supposedly this month their monetary reserves went from a surplus (fuel money) to a deficit.

Russia shifted a lot of the sales to Asia, but they sure as heck aren't paying a premium. They've got all the leverage.
Wait until the Russian oil and gas infrastructure starts breaking down; and it won't be long now. If their track record of corruption, poor maintenance and incompetence in the sector is anything like what we have seen from their military (note: it is as I have seen it myself) they will become a failed petro state real soon. See Venezuela as example A here. Great future huh; no youth and no economic prospects to speak of.
PJYoung
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2wealfth Man said:

AgLA06 said:

Yep.

Russia makes money on 2 exports. Vodka and fossil fuels.

Russia didn't shut off the fuel right away because they couldn't. They needed the money to fund the war. It was empty threats. Supposedly this month their monetary reserves went from a surplus (fuel money) to a deficit.

Russia shifted a lot of the sales to Asia, but they sure as heck aren't paying a premium. They've got all the leverage.
Wait until the Russian oil and gas infrastructure start breaking down; and it won't be long now. If their track record of corruption, poor maintenance and incompetence in the sector is anything like what we have seen from their military (note: it is as I have seen it myself) they will become a failed petro state real soon. See Venezuela as example A here. Great future huh; no youth and no economic prospects to speak of.
Yes our concern is less about what Putin will do with his nukes and more about fractured Russia and who will be in control of those nukes in the future. You can certainly bet they won't give them up like Ukraine did when they broke away from the Soviet Union.
aezmvp
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Teslag said:

Could a lob a small yield nuke into Chernobyl? It's a 30km uninhabited zone and already radioactive. Or would that piss off Belarus too?
I don't think anyone would know what that would do to the materials there and it would likely cause an ecological disaster across most of Central Europe at least. I'm almost certain the fallout from that attack could trigger Article V as well.
Waffledynamics
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Who?mikejones!
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Waffledynamics said:




They are going to fall out of a window soon
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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74OA
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Bird Poo
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74OA said:


LMCane
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:

Russian troops were already freezing and starving a few months ago when their offensive started stalling.

They lost a **** ton of materials, logistics, and soldiers, and now they're going to throw in reserves into the teeth of winter? Against Ukrainians that are better armed every day? Whom US and the entirety of Europe will continue to supply winter uniforms/gear, ammo, and more and more artillery?

Ukraine has shown they can be both on the offensive and defensive depending on the situation. A ton of Russians are going to die.
really good point you just brought up..

NATO may not donate a hundred Abrams MBT to Ukraine,

but they sure as heck will be sending over hundreds of thousands of cold weather snow uniforms and winterized equipment in the next two months (Finland and Sweden say "Hi Vlad!!")...

anyone think that the Russkies have the same supplies built up for their "new" army?
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