txags92 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Private PoopyPants said:

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Russian Air Force strategic bomber voice net active on 4694 Kilohertz USB, 2336 UTC. Aircraft passing 000 radiograms to ground control.

— TJ (@te3ej) September 12, 2022

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What does this mean?

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I am not going to crazy here, but could the pull out be to facilitate a tactical nuke or WMD strike on the areas that they pulled troops out of? I think that would be stupid on Ivan's part, but we have not seen them do anything smart.

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It is far more likely they are just going to launch another round of cruise missiles at civilian infrastructure to punish the Ukrainians for being better at war than the orcs.

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lb sand said:

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Russian conscripts at the training range.

The range safety discipline in the training of these new Buryat volunteers of the “Baikal” battalion is 🔥 pic.twitter.com/KdxASXEz6k

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) September 11, 2022

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lb sand said:

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Russian conscripts at the training range.

The range safety discipline in the training of these new Buryat volunteers of the “Baikal” battalion is 🔥 pic.twitter.com/KdxASXEz6k

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) September 11, 2022

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rgag12 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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1/2 of that red wasn't in Ukrainian hands at the start of this war.

This is reality.

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So you're saying Ukraine should only go to pre-February borders and let Donetsk and Luhansk separatists join Russia? Even if that's what you were saying, I don't know to be clear, Ukraine still has a lot of work to do to take back all of Kherson oblast, zaporizhia oblast,and non-separatist areas of the Donbas.

Most of those areas in blue that are on the map weren't taken by Ukraine, they were vacated by Russia when they figured out they bit off more than they could chew. That isn't a good representation of what Ukraine has successfully taken back by their own counter-attack

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Waffledynamics said:

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rgag12 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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1/2 of that red wasn't in Ukrainian hands at the start of this war.

This is reality.

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So you're saying Ukraine should only go to pre-February borders and let Donetsk and Luhansk separatists join Russia? Even if that's what you were saying, I don't know to be clear, Ukraine still has a lot of work to do to take back all of Kherson oblast, zaporizhia oblast,and non-separatist areas of the Donbas.

Most of those areas in blue that are on the map weren't taken by Ukraine, they were vacated by Russia when they figured out they bit off more than they could chew. That isn't a good representation of what Ukraine has successfully taken back by their own counter-attack

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Counterpoint: that's exactly what Ukraine's strategy is: make the areas untenable for Russia to continue holding. Ukraine knows it is not a comparable force in many ways, and so improvisation is required. Their targeting of strategic objectives makes full-fledged, suicidal frontal assaults not as necessary but accomplishes the same goals. This has now worked twice, and is hinting at working a third time in the South.

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rgag12 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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1/2 of that red wasn't in Ukrainian hands at the start of this war.

This is reality.

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So you're saying Ukraine should only go to pre-February borders and let Donetsk and Luhansk separatists join Russia? Even if that's what you were saying, I don't know to be clear, Ukraine still has a lot of work to do to take back all of Kherson oblast, zaporizhia oblast,and non-separatist areas of the Donbas.

Most of those areas in blue that are on the map weren't taken by Ukraine, they were vacated by Russia when they figured out they bit off more than they could chew. That isn't a good representation of what Ukraine has successfully taken back by their own counter-attack

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Quote:

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Ukraine's southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.

Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City. The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians' ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City and suggests that Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions.

Spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Operational Command, Natalya Humenyuk, stated on September 12 that Russian forces located along the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast are attempting to negotiate for surrender under the auspices of international law. Ukrainian operations in Kharkiv Oblast are unlikely to have had such a dramatic psychological effect on Russian troops this far south, and both the withdrawal of troops from forward positions in Kyselivka and reports of surrender negotiations are indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensives in the south are progressing in a significant way, even if visibility on this axis is limited by the shift in focus to Kharkiv.

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IZIUM / 0100 UTC 13 SEP / UKR forces have continued to exploit the breakthrough at Izium. Late reports indicate that UKR units are in possession of the P-66 HWY south of Savatove and have also liberated the important junction at Kremenna. pic.twitter.com/LElextVT1r

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 13, 2022

FriscoKid said:

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This looks like a total collapse at this point. Maybe Russia can retreat to an Alamo and put up a fight, but this is battle that will go down in history for centuries.

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SwigAg11 said:

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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I'd imagine the ukes are trying to push their momentum to capture all they can before fall/winter weather mucks things up.

If they time it right, they can push Russia out and use winter as a helpful time to build up defenses for a major russian counter attack.


The wild card here is putin. What's he going to do?

1. Declare actual war, institute a draft and try to actually overwhelm the ukes, at least in the east/south east? Of course, this would mean pulling troops/recruits from Moscow and St. Petersburg which could escalate any internal resistance.

2. Throw everything he has into the donbass and Crimea regions, say the special operation is over and attempt to not lose any ill-goten gains by playing defense?

3. Introduce chemical or nuclear weapons to the battlefield? Would his military officers follow through? Would it lead to a coup?

4. Lose complete control and fall victim to coup?

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If Russia has trashed this so bad over 6.5 months in mostly good weather, wait until their old and inexperienced guys are supposed to be on guard duty in frigid conditions. Ukes will have a turkey shoot going on just for fun.

The already crappy Russian supplies have likely been thoroughly exhausted.

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I'm assuming the winter would effect operations on both sides. Could the Ukes even sufficiently move around their artillery, HIMARS, etc. to effectively hit Russian defensive forces?

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Waffledynamics said:

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He last replied to someone on Twitter on 9/11.

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Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 13 September 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/BYZhjLmtmf

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/r0Cf3z3wab

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) September 13, 2022

GeorgiAg said:

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This whole thread is interesting and a good read.

To the Republicans complaining about the billions the US is sending to Ukraine

I’m going to share with a private opinion from a knowledgeable European official I know

Basically, he starts off smiling and saying the US are “absolutely ruthless” with regard to the Ukraine war

1

— Gummi Bear (@gummibear737) September 10, 2022

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Russian reporter in Lyman area says Ukrainians have a "beastly" counter-battery fire, pinning down the defenders in the area. The pressure is mounting. pic.twitter.com/aRl9BnFkvS

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 12, 2022

Kreminna lies only 25 kilometers northwest of Severodonetsk, which Russian forces occupied over a month of fierce fighting over May and June.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 13, 2022