***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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PJYoung
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4:13p, 9/12/22
AG
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DeBoss
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In reply to Fitch • 4:13p, 9/12/22
AG
This map shows that Ukraine now controls Zaporizhia if I'm not mistaken. Does that mean the situation and the nuclear plant may get better?
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javajaws
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In reply to AgLA06 • 4:15p, 9/12/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
Don't see your point. In a week they undid what took the supposed second greatest military 3 months to take in a meat grinder.
I was responding to a post about how Ukraine was doing and was trying to give a general estimate of the current Ukraine offensive and how it relates to land still occupied by Russia. Basically THIS map:

So while the offensive is great for Ukraine (purple areas)...let's not forget all that area in red:

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
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AgLA06
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In reply to javajaws • 4:16p, 9/12/22
AG
1/2 of that red wasn't in Ukrainian hands at the start of this war.

This is reality.
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aezmvp
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4:16p, 9/12/22
The lines won't stabilize for a bit. The Russians don't have good unity of command and have replaced senior commanders twice in two and a half weeks. The lines around northern Donbass will likely be determined more by Ukrainian supply and logistic capabilities and the need to reform and reorganize. After that it will be a race to see if the Russians can resupply from secondary and tertiary supply dumps and form new defensive lines.

I'm seeing a LOT of indications that there will be a third front opened soon in the South East. The TO&E for the Ukrainians indicate that a third battle group is available. We'll see in the next 48 hours.
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PJYoung
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4:17p, 9/12/22
AG


Quote:
...car rolling stock.

The Ukrainian capture of this Russian railway rolling stock filled with supplies is why the Russian Army abandoned all of the Kharkiv Oblast.

The Russians did this to the Nazis in Operation Bagration.

The Russians knew how Ukraine was going to do it to them and their collective guilty consciousnesses over their genocidal ethnic cleansing of Ukrainians did the rest.

The current Ukrainian mobile offensive can likely last another five to ten days moving dozens of kilometers a day simply on these railway supplies.

This now visible Russian logistical cascading event failure was the reason for my 10 Sep 2022 thread.

Ukrainian advances of twenty kilometers a day for five more days using these railway supplies are on the low end of possibilities.

Russia's public refusal to put any new Russian Army units inside Ukraine while retreating others out of Donetsk is another confirmation

... of this battlefield reality.

People on Twitter need to be thinking in terms of the complete liberation of all of Donbass by Ukraine in the next two to four weeks.
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Robert C. Christian
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In reply to DeBoss • 4:19p, 9/12/22
AG
DeBoss said:
This map shows that Ukraine now controls Zaporizhia if I'm not mistaken. Does that mean the situation and the nuclear plant may get better?
Not necessarily, the Nuclear plant is not in the city and is till held by Russia.
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javajaws
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In reply to AgLA06 • 4:21p, 9/12/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
2/3 of that red wasn't in Ukrainian hands at the start of this war.
Obviously not 100% of it, nor did I say they did. I hope we all know Crimea was taken previously by now and areas of the Donbas had been contested pre-war as well. I guess I'll drop out of posting in this thread - you'll seem to be especially argumentative for some reason...apologies.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
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FriscoKid
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In reply to PJYoung • 4:22p, 9/12/22
AG



[We are leaving this one up. -Staff]
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AgLA06
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In reply to javajaws • 4:27p, 9/12/22
AG
Literally the map you posted. It's not about being argumentative, but factually correct.
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aezmvp
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4:30p, 9/12/22


Oooooo boy. More fun for Russia.
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aezmvp
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4:33p, 9/12/22


Heh. If I was DIA I'd already be scooting my way to help with the intel and debriefings.
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javajaws
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In reply to AgLA06 • 4:33p, 9/12/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
Literally the map you posted. It's not about being argumentative, but factually correct.
Yes, but Zelensky has not said he would accept leaving any of those areas in Russian hands. So...the map I posted is correct in that they need to take all of the Donbas and Crimea to meet their objectives. What they "started with" is irrelevant given that goal.

The offensive is good...great even. But let us not think this is over just yet. Well, unless Putin meets a fortunate end on his vacay.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
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Straight Talk
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4:43p, 9/12/22
AG
You guys are both good posters, don't get hung up TexAgs style on the small differences.

Please.
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dtkprowler
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5:48p, 9/12/22
AG
Anyone else get uneasy when this thread doesn't have an update for over an hour now? Wanna keep seeing liberations and pushes and wins. Get nervous it has stalled when we don't hear anything.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to dtkprowler • 5:52p, 9/12/22
AG
dtkprowler said:
Anyone else get uneasy when this thread doesn't have an update for over an hour now? Wanna keep seeing liberations and pushes and wins. Get nervous it has stalled when we don't hear anything.
No. Not at all.

OpSec.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to dtkprowler • 5:53p, 9/12/22
AG
It's 2:00 AM in Ukraine right now. News reports are going to slow down for a few hours.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to agent-maroon • 5:57p, 9/12/22
AG
agent-maroon said:
It's 2:00 AM in Ukraine right now. News reports are going to slow down for a few hours.
Get those reporters NVGs!!
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AlaskanAg99
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5:57p, 9/12/22
AG
Best part of Russia fleeing is they're leaving behind so much hardwarenthats notice to the Ukes Army.

They just turn the equipment around and point it back the other way. Plus scrub off the Z or O.

I hope to keep the troops rested they're leap frogging units to keep the pressure on.
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CondensedFogAggie
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6:00p, 9/12/22

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aggiehawg
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 6:05p, 9/12/22
AG
And the Rus ability to manufacture enough to resupply those losses is questionable, at best.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to dtkprowler • 6:05p, 9/12/22
AG
It's late at night there, so news slows down. You can also see a lot of updates for newly liberated/secured towns and villages mentioned on LiveUaMap. Many of the announcements of such liberations are in the Kharkiv region, which it's pretty clear that Russia has mostly abandoned, but they still need to be sure and secure the towns for Ukraine.

There's also the issue of OpSec, as aggiehawg has alluded to. I'm sure Ukraine tamped down big time on the news getting out as the focus goes more to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
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CondensedFogAggie
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6:14p, 9/12/22
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CondensedFogAggie
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6:18p, 9/12/22
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AggieLit
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6:22p, 9/12/22
Did we ever hear what happened with the "fighting at Donetsk airport" rumors last Saturday?
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80sGeorge
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7:05p, 9/12/22
AG
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lb sand
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7:27p, 9/12/22
AG
Russian conscripts at the training range.
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lobopride
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In reply to lb sand • 7:37p, 9/12/22
When I was in the navy and arrived at my first ship we had to get qualified on a 9mm handgun. Shouldn't be anything major but the range officer who was armed with a handgun kept yelling that "I'm gonna shoot you in the back!" (If I kept messing up). I hadn't ever shot a gun in my life and I didn't know how to do anything with a gun. To say I was nervous was an understatement. At least he wasn't firing live rounds!
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Not a Bot
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7:44p, 9/12/22
AG


Some in the Duma are still calling for full mobilization. Also some increasing pressure to withdrawal. Putin is in a tight spot here.
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Not a Bot
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7:53p, 9/12/22
AG
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Not a Bot
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7:54p, 9/12/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Not a Bot • 7:58p, 9/12/22
AG
Private PoopyPants said:
What does this mean?
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Malibu
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:00p, 9/12/22
Skynet imminent.
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JB!98
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:02p, 9/12/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Private PoopyPants said:
What does this mean?
I am not going to crazy here, but could the pull out be to facilitate a tactical nuke or WMD strike on the areas that they pulled troops out of? I think that would be stupid on Ivan's part, but we have not seen them do anything smart.
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Not a Bot
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8:02p, 9/12/22
AG






While Armenia does have a loose defense alliance with Russia, it seems like they are the most democratic and pro-Europe country in the Caucasus. Does Russia have troops to spare to send to quell the situation?
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