SouthTex99 said:

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#3 is the fastest way to invite NATO to the party. And NATO won't stop in Ukraine.

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Oh I agree it would be the dumbest option for putin to make, but, backed into a corner at risk of losing everything, I could see him making a rash decision.

I question whether the button pushers would actually follow the order and push the button

Agthatbuilds said:

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I'd imagine the ukes are trying to push their momentum to capture all they can before fall/winter weather mucks things up.

If they time it right, they can push Russia out and use winter as a helpful time to build up defenses for a major russian counter attack.


The wild card here is putin. What's he going to do?

1. Declare actual war, institute a draft and try to actually overwhelm the ukes, at least in the east/south east? Of course, this would mean pulling troops/recruits from Moscow and St. Petersburg which could escalate any internal resistance.

2. Throw everything he has into the donbass and Crimea regions, say the special operation is over and attempt to not lose any ill-goten gains by playing defense?

3. Introduce chemical or nuclear weapons to the battlefield? Would his military officers follow through? Would it lead to a coup?

4. Lose complete control and fall victim to coup?

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If Russia has trashed this so bad over 6.5 months in mostly good weather, wait until their old and inexperienced guys are supposed to be on guard duty in frigid conditions. Ukes will have a turkey shoot going on just for fun.

The already crappy Russian supplies have likely been thoroughly exhausted.

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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I'd imagine the ukes are trying to push their momentum to capture all they can before fall/winter weather mucks things up.

If they time it right, they can push Russia out and use winter as a helpful time to build up defenses for a major russian counter attack.


The wild card here is putin. What's he going to do?

1. Declare actual war, institute a draft and try to actually overwhelm the ukes, at least in the east/south east? Of course, this would mean pulling troops/recruits from Moscow and St. Petersburg which could escalate any internal resistance.

2. Throw everything he has into the donbass and Crimea regions, say the special operation is over and attempt to not lose any ill-goten gains by playing defense?

3. Introduce chemical or nuclear weapons to the battlefield? Would his military officers follow through? Would it lead to a coup?

4. Lose complete control and fall victim to coup?

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If Russia has trashed this so bad over 6.5 months in mostly good weather, wait until their old and inexperienced guys are supposed to be on guard duty in frigid conditions. Ukes will have a turkey shoot going on just for fun.

The already crappy Russian supplies have likely been thoroughly exhausted.

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I'm assuming the winter would effect operations on both sides. Could the Ukes even sufficiently move around their artillery, HIMARS, etc. to effectively hit Russian defensive forces?

SwigAg11 said:

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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I'd imagine the ukes are trying to push their momentum to capture all they can before fall/winter weather mucks things up.

If they time it right, they can push Russia out and use winter as a helpful time to build up defenses for a major russian counter attack.


The wild card here is putin. What's he going to do?

1. Declare actual war, institute a draft and try to actually overwhelm the ukes, at least in the east/south east? Of course, this would mean pulling troops/recruits from Moscow and St. Petersburg which could escalate any internal resistance.

2. Throw everything he has into the donbass and Crimea regions, say the special operation is over and attempt to not lose any ill-goten gains by playing defense?

3. Introduce chemical or nuclear weapons to the battlefield? Would his military officers follow through? Would it lead to a coup?

4. Lose complete control and fall victim to coup?

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If Russia has trashed this so bad over 6.5 months in mostly good weather, wait until their old and inexperienced guys are supposed to be on guard duty in frigid conditions. Ukes will have a turkey shoot going on just for fun.

The already crappy Russian supplies have likely been thoroughly exhausted.

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I'm assuming the winter would effect operations on both sides. Could the Ukes even sufficiently move around their artillery, HIMARS, etc. to effectively hit Russian defensive forces?

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That is my point. The ukes push to the very edge of the ability right now and gain as much as they can before fall/winter. I dont see how russia would be capable of mounting any counter attack for many weeks at the current moment.

Then, as the weather changes making attacking a much more difficult proposition, they use the poor weather to build up their defenses.

They can use the weather like a basketball team uses the out of bounds line as a 6th defender.

Demosthenes81 said:

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If I remember my WW2 correctly, winter is actually a time for offensive movement. Once the ground freezes tracked vehicles can move, maybe not with the speed of summer but it is not zero either. Spring thaw is actually a time of stagnant operations where the mud prevents off road movement. Now being on the defensive in the dead of winter is probably worse than being on offense.

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Depends on where. The frost line has to be deep enough that you don't crack through to mud. These tanks are 30-40 tons. AFV are lighter and more capable during winter but yeah you have to freeze that ground hard.

Back in the Soviet Era a Premier would go to his vm vacation home and either develop a terminal illness or just never come back.

Maybe Sochi is Putins "retirement".

He needs to put a bullet to his brain, he has been humiliated on the world stage. He can't get past this.

Maybe his vacation home is set up with a nice gas leak or something, you never know

Demosthenes81 said:

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If I remember my WW2 correctly, winter is actually a time for offensive movement. Once the ground freezes tracked vehicles can move, maybe not with the speed of summer but it is not zero either. Spring thaw is actually a time of stagnant operations where the mud prevents off road movement. Now being on the defensive in the dead of winter is probably worse than being on offense.

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It can, but, a cold winter can bring so many other issues like iced over roads, mud, frozen Infantry.

Hilter delayed his invasion of russia by about 6 weeks in 1941, and ended up starting in late June instead of early May.

Then fall rain made mud so bad movement slowed greatly. Then a very cold winter caused frostbite, impassable roads and fields, frozen weapons and so on. In general, everything is harder in winter conditions, especially when gearing up for an offensive.

You could look at the Battle of the bulge adsan example as well, but to the opposite of my point. The Germans were able to mount a massive surprise offensive in the dead of winter using the weather as cover for their buildup.

SwigAg11 said:

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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I'd imagine the ukes are trying to push their momentum to capture all they can before fall/winter weather mucks things up.

If they time it right, they can push Russia out and use winter as a helpful time to build up defenses for a major russian counter attack.


The wild card here is putin. What's he going to do?

1. Declare actual war, institute a draft and try to actually overwhelm the ukes, at least in the east/south east? Of course, this would mean pulling troops/recruits from Moscow and St. Petersburg which could escalate any internal resistance.

2. Throw everything he has into the donbass and Crimea regions, say the special operation is over and attempt to not lose any ill-goten gains by playing defense?

3. Introduce chemical or nuclear weapons to the battlefield? Would his military officers follow through? Would it lead to a coup?

4. Lose complete control and fall victim to coup?

---

If Russia has trashed this so bad over 6.5 months in mostly good weather, wait until their old and inexperienced guys are supposed to be on guard duty in frigid conditions. Ukes will have a turkey shoot going on just for fun.

The already crappy Russian supplies have likely been thoroughly exhausted.

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I'm assuming the winter would effect operations on both sides. Could the Ukes even sufficiently move around their artillery, HIMARS, etc. to effectively hit Russian defensive forces?

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We need to look at the last 6.5 months and I'm no military historian, just a casual novice. Who has been better organized and been able to adapt? Who has not learned from a single error? We well know about the Ukrainian Tractor Corps when needed. When conditions go to ****, I'm betting on one side that has hardened fighters, not a bunch of old or fat or green call ups since all their early men and equipment have been churned through the meat grinder.

I'm thinking the Ukes would love to terrorize these guys across frozen rivers or fields with their drone army dropping little surprises in the middle of the night. Imagine you already can't sleep, hungry, freezing, pissed off and the enemy is able to blow up the trench you are trying not to die in.

I think a couple of pages back was a tally of what was captured/destroyed. The captured seemed to be quite higher- speaks to the resolve of the conscript.

Even black on fuel/ammo they'd still fight SOME but it doesn't seem to be the case.

so, does anyone have a succinct current status of the overall war? its hard to understand who is winning at this point/

Waffledynamics said:

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Bag said:

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so, does anyone have a succinct current status of the overall war? its hard to understand who is winning at this point/

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Russia's getting their asses handed to them at the moment. Ukraine just took back a lot of land in the Northeast and is threatening the South.

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But Russia still holds significant Ukraine land. I think this current offensive has taken back, what, less than 10% of what they have lost so far (not including Crimea)? Anybody have a better estimate?

Russia is halting sending soldiers into Ukraine, and there are some in the Kherson region reportedly negotiating a surrender. The annexation referendums have been reportedly canceled.

Russia took a big loss.

BUT

For now, they still hold most of the territory they took. They have fewer resources now and the Ukrainians are getting stronger but this strategic surprise might not be so successful twice. Russia may simply spread out behind more defensible lines and play for time and try to pressure negotiations while they have a decent hand. I doubt they press for more except in The east, and that's what they might attempt to bargain for.

It's going to be a battle of how much misery the Russians will suffer versus the Ukrainians resolve.

Also, Stalin went to his countryside Dachas many times and always came back. I think Putin has to be pretty nervous though.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Russia took a big loss.

BUT

For now, they still hold most of the territory they took. They have fewer resources now and the Ukrainians are getting stronger but this strategic surprise might not be so successful twice. Russia may simply spread out behind more defensible lines and play for time and try to pressure negotiations while they have a decent hand. I doubt they press for more except in The east, and that's what they might attempt to bargain for.

It's going to be a battle of how much misery the Russians will suffer versus the Ukrainians resolve.

Also, Stalin went to his countryside Dachas many times and always came back. I think Putin has to be pretty nervous though.

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If Russia stops offensive operations and tries to harden their lines then that just continues to open them up for point attacks by allowing Ukraine to thin their forces along the line further. They can they allocate more forces in a concentrated area for offensive pushes like they are doing now.

In other words, if Russia wants to sit still they have already lost - they just can't/won't admit it yet.

Almost back to 2016 lines

Bag said:

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so, does anyone have a succinct current status of the overall war? its hard to understand who is winning at this point/

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

What that does't show is much of the east was taken in 2014 in addition to Crimea. Ukraine has taken back a lot of what Russia invaded this year.

Here's a time laps of the war. I don't think the average person realizes how much land Ukraine has taken back.

https://www.ft.com/content/4351d5b0-0888-4b47-9368-6bc4dfbccbf5

Waffledynamics said:

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Russia is halting sending soldiers into Ukraine, and there are some in the Kherson region reportedly negotiating a surrender. The annexation referendums have been reportedly canceled.

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That's been a pretty persistent rumor but my feel in that is that it has the feel of a propoganda campaign.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Russia took a big loss.

BUT

For now, they still hold most of the territory they took. They have fewer resources now and the Ukrainians are getting stronger but this strategic surprise might not be so successful twice. Russia may simply spread out behind more defensible lines and play for time and try to pressure negotiations while they have a decent hand. I doubt they press for more except in The east, and that's what they might attempt to bargain for.

It's going to be a battle of how much misery the Russians will suffer versus the Ukrainians resolve.

Also, Stalin went to his countryside Dachas many times and always came back. I think Putin has to be pretty nervous though.

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Depends on if the Russians can retake control of their retreat. If they can get more organized and consolidate into defensible positions that can be reinforced, then they can probably create a stalemate and try to politically get out of this jam.

Ukraine must continue to push to their limit while they have the momentum if their goal is indeed retake all Ukrainian territory

The tractor brigade is getting possessive of its war booty.

Ukranian tractorist from Trostyanets describes how retreating Russian troops abandoned "a wealth of armor" incl. 3 T-80 "little tanks." He fixed 1 up & towed the 2 others. A few days later, the 93rd Brigade of the Ukranian Army came & took the 2. "I won't forgive them," he ends🤣 pic.twitter.com/qjLynKeq5S

— Elizabeth Tsurkov🌻 (@Elizrael) September 12, 2022

Why TF would they allow him to keep the tank?

I understand his frustration, but if anyone needs it it's the uke military.

These could provide really good "decoys" with just a driver, they could make Russia believe an offensive was going one direction. If they could just park them and the Russians don't know if they are manned or not.

javajaws said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Bag said:

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so, does anyone have a succinct current status of the overall war? its hard to understand who is winning at this point/

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Russia's getting their asses handed to them at the moment. Ukraine just took back a lot of land in the Northeast and is threatening the South.

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But Russia still holds significant Ukraine land. I think this current offensive has taken back, what, less than 10% of what they have lost so far (not including Crimea)? Anybody have a better estimate?

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A new🗺️from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats depicts total liberated Ukrainian territory as of September 11, 2022.#Ukraine has liberated over 60,000 square km of territory since the Russians began retreating from around Kyiv in early April. Quick🧵below. pic.twitter.com/bORyqNNHWY

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 12, 2022

Yep. They've taken back more land than Russia has been able to hold so far in this war.

And yet people have no clue.

Fitch said:

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javajaws said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Bag said:

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so, does anyone have a succinct current status of the overall war? its hard to understand who is winning at this point/

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Russia's getting their asses handed to them at the moment. Ukraine just took back a lot of land in the Northeast and is threatening the South.

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But Russia still holds significant Ukraine land. I think this current offensive has taken back, what, less than 10% of what they have lost so far (not including Crimea)? Anybody have a better estimate?

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A new🗺️from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats depicts total liberated Ukrainian territory as of September 11, 2022.#Ukraine has liberated over 60,000 square km of territory since the Russians began retreating from around Kyiv in early April. Quick🧵below. pic.twitter.com/bORyqNNHWY

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 12, 2022

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My bad, I should have been more precise...I meant 10% of what Russia had held a couple weeks ago...not from the beginning of the war or from Russia's maximal gains sometime between then and now.

Don't see your point. In a week they undid what took the supposed second greatest military 3 months to take in a meat grinder.