***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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GarryowenAg
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JFABNRGR
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FriscoKid said:

These guys and gals have been fighting for three days straight. They have made amazing gains and they need sleep and prayers as we watch football tomorrow.

Unbelievable sacrifice by a bunch of people fighting for their independence as a country.



Well said. I did not know much about Ukraine like I do now, their history dating way back, their land size, their flag, but most of all their people. Makes me wonder about the corruption and how much of that was externally induced as we have no room to criticize about corruption ourselves.

The advances they are making will be written about for years but the fight is still ongoing and who knows how putin is going to accept being cornered (in his mind ow they could just leave) but because of this routing unrest is quickly rising within russia.

Godspeed Ukraine and those many foreigners fighting as well.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
JFABNRGR
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Several reports its under UKR control already.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Not a Bot
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WTF is happening!? This is borderline unbelievable.
Not a Bot
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At times I think this is almost too good to be true, as if they are pushing themselves into a trap. But then we see reports about how Russians are leaving very expensive equipment behind. Maybe the strikes on all the command and control areas just have them in complete disarray. There were reports a few days ago that the Russians were completely unable to communicate with each other.

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If this report is true then more indication Russia probably wasn't expecting an offensive in the east. They sent a **** ton of equipment to Kherson and left the east lightly defended.
GarryowenAg
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GarryowenAg
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This x one billion.
Ag In Ok
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Private PoopyPants said:



If this report is true then more indication Russia probably wasn't expecting an offensive in the east. They sent a **** ton of equipment to Kherson and left the east lightly defended.


Credit to whoever here posted the thought the Kherson push was intended to draw in Russian brigades and even a division only to cut off access this bottling up thousands of troops. Numbers don't matter if they are unable to move.
Amazed by the turn of events. Hope they keep all their gains.
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Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian occupation administration evacuating from Vovchansk to Belgorod
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-september-russian-occupation-administration-evacuating
Waffledynamics
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Honest question: is this the sign of a military in revolt? I just don't understand how this is happening. The only thing that makes me think otherwise is the massive amount of casualties along with the POWs.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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More corroboration that Izyum has been retaken by Ukraine.

GarryowenAg
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Waffledynamics said:

Honest question: is this the sign of a military in revolt? I just don't understand how this is happening. The only thing that makes me think otherwise is the massive amount of casualties along with the POWs.
I'be been wondering this as well. The Russian forces are collapsing as quickly as the Iraqis during ODS
Waffledynamics
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Drillbit4
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Private PoopyPants said:




Did they cross a major river to get here?
GarryowenAg
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This is awesome.
aezmvp
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GarryowenAg said:

Waffledynamics said:

Honest question: is this the sign of a military in revolt? I just don't understand how this is happening. The only thing that makes me think otherwise is the massive amount of casualties along with the POWs.
I'be been wondering this as well. The Russian forces are collapsing as quickly as the Iraqis during ODS
No its not a revolt. Based on pictures that I've seen and reports on Uke Telegram channels it seems like the forces stationed in the area of the offensive are LHR and DHR forces with Rosguardia mostly. This is seasoned by some fresher reserve troops which aren't as good as the conscript soldier classes. The most recent conscript class won't hit the field in effective numbers for another month. The Ukes pinned down a lot of Russian higher quality units elsewhere and this is what happens.

The biggest things this shows are the degradation and incompetence in Russian military leadership. You cant be on the defensive, which they were here, and not build out additional defense lines. Either arrogance or stupidity, none forgivable to professional soldiers.
GarryowenAg
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I think the situation is so fluid that no one knows what's really going on. If this were the US, we would be calling up to higher when reaching a phase line to confirm if we are supposed to continue mission (continue advancing). However, this is Ukraine, and I wonder how much operational control higher HQ have on these tactical units. How far are they going to push before they have to conduct tactical pauses?
SPF250
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FamousAgg
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Lots of sunflowers being planted in Russian corpses the past few day. Maybe the should have stayed TF out of Ukraine
Waffledynamics
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Who?mikejones!
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Private PoopyPants said:

WTF is happening!? This is borderline unbelievable.


Months of himar preparation of the battlefield.

Motivated army vs unmotivated army

Modern weapons vs Soviet North Korean buy backs.

No air superiority
No Spin Ag
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GarryowenAg said:

This is awesome.



Slava Ukraine indeed!
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
javajaws
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Starting to sound more like an all out (yet hasty) withdrawal more than simply a rout.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
Ulysses90
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Waffledynamics said:

Honest question: is this the sign of a military in revolt? I just don't understand how this is happening. The only thing that makes me think otherwise is the massive amount of casualties along with the POWs.

This is just academic theory of war and I am not someone with the experience to say I have done it or watched it up close. Anyway, this is what the US military teaches at their schools and war colleges.

The theory of war employed by the US military borrows from the Germans the concept of schwerpunkt which is the "center of gravity" for oneself and one's enemy. Identifying what constitutes the enemy's schwerpunkt and its vulnerabilities is the G-2 's (intelligence officer) primary duty in operational planning. Protecting one's own schwerpunkt is obviously critically important and one of the most intuitive ways to do that is to distribute your weight and make it difficult for the enemy to focus their attack against it.

The Ukrainians understood, probably better than anyone else in the world, the the Russian doctrine that seeks to win by systematic application of massive amounts of firepower and forces supplied by a large centralized ammunition and fuel depots make their concentrated logistics hubs the Russian's schwerpunkt.

If an attack on the schwerpunkt is successful it results in "dislocation" and the enemy is off-balance and disoriented and cannot mount an effective defense. My amateur opinion is that the Ukrainians rightly decided to relentlessly hammer the Russian fuel and ammo supply depots and make it impossible to adequately resupply their front line forces. Then they attached the C2 nodes so that when the attack on Russian defensive positions was executed, there would be no ability to exercise C2.

That results in shock and confusion. Pressing the attack against shocked and confused front line forces that cannot get resupplied, don't know what's happening to their flanks and to the rear, and have no one to call for fire support causes panic and ideally, large scale surrender.

When it all goes as planned, a successful campaign should result in far more captured and surrendering than killed. The Ukrainians seem to have achieved a large scale dislocation of the Russian military forces and have removed the ability of the Russian command structure to be effective.

There are lots of military history books but there are sparse examples of an operation on this scale going as well as this appears to be going. This is a master class in session. It appears to a be a victory in the making and if it is then it's on the scale of Hannibal's victory at Cannae or the Russian fleet being sunk at Tsushima. The Ukrainians could not have done it without a LOT of NATO help but their operational planning is just superb.

Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Great analysis! Thank you for the education.
Gordo14
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Ag In Ok said:

Private PoopyPants said:



If this report is true then more indication Russia probably wasn't expecting an offensive in the east. They sent a **** ton of equipment to Kherson and left the east lightly defended.


Credit to whoever here posted the thought the Kherson push was intended to draw in Russian brigades and even a division only to cut off access this bottling up thousands of troops. Numbers don't matter if they are unable to move.
Amazed by the turn of events. Hope they keep all their gains.


I'm pretty confident the Khersan offensive is real as well. But because of the combat power of Russian troops there it's going to be a slower, more methodical, attrition focused grind. Ukraine is much better served being patient and tearing apart Russia's combat power there than try to fight through the teeth of Russia's defense. But obviously, they did what they could to divert Russia's combat power away from the Donbas as well. The interesting thing is how in denial Russia has been until the last few days... They still thought they were on an offensive at Bakhmut even though they have largely stalled there.
Bryan98
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I wonder how much cronyism has degraded Russia's command competence.
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