javajaws said:
IMO, this is where it all starts to get really interesting. There was no need for Russia to panic after their early withdrawal from the Kyiv assault. They still had plenty of forces to work with at that point and still had momentum.
But now, after the near stalemate for months...they have lost momentum and are now getting routed in parts of the invasion. I don't see them re-gaining these losses anytime in the near future which now puts them in a precarious position.
If the rout continues or even accelerates then Russia has some hard decisions to make. Continue to deny you are losing and risk losing everything you have committed? Pull out and call this what it is: a failure? Does Putin say f*** it and open up the silos? Or does somebody finally get the balls to take him out? One thing is for sure, Russia has to do SOMETHING different as they are badly losing right now.
IMO, this is a direct result of the quality of men Russia has been counting on to conduct their warfare. Recent pics from recruiting depots over the last few weeks is very telling. "Bottom of the barrel" is a very apt description. More gray and bald than hair, more potbelly than muscle, etc.
While there is no real true way to quantify it, morale has always been such a force multiplier in war and the orcs simply don't have it. That is one area that I am firmly convinced of. I was traveling yesterday and listening to Dan Carlin and reminded me of a great example. The fall of Singapore early WW2. The Allied troops outnumbered the Japanese by almost 3x and were the defenders in their "fortress city". But those Allied troops had been in hard combat for weeks, low on supplies, felt betrayed by their command, and were given unrealistic goals in unrealistic timelines. Sound familiar? Yeah, The Japanese struck hard with a much smaller army that was well provisioned and a firm belief in their mission and their leaders vision. Singapore cracked and capitulated in a week.
All that to say, I am not surprised at the breakdown in the Russian defences in that area. I was even kind of expecting it. I can truly think of no harder job this world has ever faced than a leader in charge of trying to stop a rout. We have numerous examples of military leaders gloriously attacking and taking objectives but I respect those who can lead successful retreats under fire even more. Strong and capable frontline leaders is something else the orcs seem to be missing, or are already dead. No defense in layers is a screaming example of this. Mind boggling to me even.
And I fully concur with you. I think the next big turning point is whether Russia fully declares war or not.
