***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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8:23a, 9/9/22
AG


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Waffledynamics
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8:25a, 9/9/22
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8:27a, 9/9/22
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Waffledynamics
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8:29a, 9/9/22
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Kherson front:

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Waffledynamics
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8:31a, 9/9/22
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Not a Bot
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8:31a, 9/9/22
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A lot of Twitter references to the 2nd Battle of Kharkiv. Tens of thousands of Soviet troops trapped in a pincer in Izyum by the Germans.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:34a, 9/9/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:


No way. I'm as pro Ukraine as anyone. It makes no sense for them to start pulling back from Melitopol now before even losing Kherson.
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MouthBQ98
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8:35a, 9/9/22
AG
I love to see a good breakthrough. Keep them on their heels, unable to re-supply, establish a coordinated defense, or effectively use artillery or air because they don't know where anything is. Cause panic and shatter morale.

Hopefully they have a plan to mark captured equipment and send it back to a recovery unit so the attack forces can move on without having to delay, or needlessly destroy it if it is useable.
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Waffledynamics
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8:36a, 9/9/22
AG
If there are 25k orcs trapped in the Kherson region, and 20k troops trapped in Izyum...

This is unfathomably unfortunate for the Russians.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to AgLA06 • 8:37a, 9/9/22
AG
They are probably pretty aware by now of the range of western rocket systems and what targets they prefer. If they will fall in range but can operate just as well outside it, it makes sense to pull targeted equipment back from the front.
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FriscoKid
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8:37a, 9/9/22
AG


You hate to see it
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to AgLA06 • 8:38a, 9/9/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
Waffledynamics said:


No way. I'm as pro Ukraine as anyone. It makes no sense for them to start pulling back from Melitopol now before even losing Kherson.


Mariupol, not Melitopol. They're moving it West, possibly on a route to Kherson or Zaporizhzhia.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to FriscoKid • 8:40a, 9/9/22
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FriscoKid said:


You hate to see it
I'm laughing at their claim of first significant defeat.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to FriscoKid • 8:46a, 9/9/22
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FriscoKid said:


You hate to see it


First? Kiev would like a word.

I don't think there's any hiding or explaining away this ****show now. If even the Russian trolls are admitting these kind of losses, Russia is going to have to start explaining to its population how they're getting their asses beat.
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Waffledynamics
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8:48a, 9/9/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 8:48a, 9/9/22
AG
They'll vacate the areas in a "good will gesture" just like before.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:51a, 9/9/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
AgLA06 said:
Waffledynamics said:


No way. I'm as pro Ukraine as anyone. It makes no sense for them to start pulling back from Melitopol now before even losing Kherson.


Mariupol, not Melitopol. They're moving it West, possibly on a route to Kherson or Zaporizhzhia.


Thanks. That makes more sense they moved it 50 miles closer to Kherson. I read withdrawal and confused the 2 cities like you said. Too many Ukrainian towns with similar names.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:52a, 9/9/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:


According to this they are.


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Waffledynamics
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9:08a, 9/9/22
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Waffledynamics
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9:11a, 9/9/22
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If Russia is cut off and abandons Izyum, where do they go? Into captivity?
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TXAggie2011
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9:16a, 9/9/22
AG
There may be some down right nasty fighting coming over the bridges over the reservoir…unless of course one side or the other decides to just blow 'em up.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:22a, 9/9/22
AG
Hell. They go to Hell.
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sclaff
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9:30a, 9/9/22
AG
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FriscoKid
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9:33a, 9/9/22
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aezmvp
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In reply to sclaff • 9:39a, 9/9/22
sclaff said:
Holy crap they might actually surround anyone still in Izyum. If they're in Kyupyansk and Oskil there are probably not a lot of ways out and some priority taskings coming in for any river crossings coming up. Wow!
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aezmvp
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9:45a, 9/9/22


Helpful visual for all you history text book types.
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aezmvp
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9:51a, 9/9/22


If this is anywhere close to accurate and the Ukes cut off P79, The Russians only option might be to try and fight their way out. What is going on?!? It looks like a complete collapse SE of Kharkiv.
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AgLA06
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In reply to aezmvp • 9:52a, 9/9/22
AG
aezmvp said:
sclaff said:
Holy crap they might actually surround anyone still in Izyum. If they're in Kyupyansk and Oskil there are probably not a lot of ways out and some priority taskings coming in for any river crossings coming up. Wow!


2 bridges and a railroad bridge left it appears over the river to the east. Ukes are already at and attacking the northern bridge. Assuming they hit the others with artillery/ HIMARS, then the Russian options are swim, hunker down for a seige, or die.

They're moving at a speed that would make Patton blush. They've proven to be competent, so hopefully they aren't overextending.
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kag00
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:09a, 9/9/22
AG
Let's hope that the Ukes have a plan to deal with a cornered wild animal that is those 20k thinking that they are fighting for their lives. Best case is that they don't have any fight left in them but I very much doubt that right now.

A modern day siege may be in the future for them to drain them if what supplies and fight they have left.
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EastSideAg2002
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10:11a, 9/9/22
Me after every time I refresh this thread the last few days.



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Ag In Ok
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:12a, 9/9/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:


They are watching what happens to Putin and may be hedging their bets that Putin survives. No Putin, there may be a regime change in Belarus. Why push to Kiev if the Ukes are kicking the crap out of the Russians on two fronts? What's the upside here?
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to aezmvp • 10:16a, 9/9/22
AG
It might be a complete collapse. Seems like the Russians don't have the men or munitions and they know it. They're running backwards and probably hoping to link up with reinforcements and regroup.

If the FSB really evacuated and cleared out of Kupyansk before the Ukrainians got there, then that's a sign that they know defending that position is pointless. If it's pointless, it's because they lack manpower, equipment, munitions, or all of the above to an extent they can't even hold until reinforced, or they don't believe reinforcements will come or the Ukrainians are moving so fast they think they'll get cutoff.

In any event, this looks like a rout right now, and the Russians are losing strategic objectives for the East. It may turn out that Kherson was a feint to draw attention away from the real assault against Russian supply lines in the East and force Russia to resupply only from the South.
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txags92
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In reply to kag00 • 10:19a, 9/9/22
AG
kag00 said:
Let's hope that the Ukes have a plan to deal with a cornered wild animal that is those 20k thinking that they are fighting for their lives. Best case is that they don't have any fight left in them but I very much doubt that right now.

A modern day siege may be in the future for them to drain them if what supplies and fight they have left.
Imagine trying to defend a beseiged position in an urban area where nearly every home is occupied by somebody that hates your guts and wants very badly to kill you.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:20a, 9/9/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Quote:
The 25th brigade captured a battery of self-propelled guns Msta-S of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with the inscriptions "To Kyiv" and "Crimea is ours"

Soldiers of the 25th Airborne Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the offensive near Balakleya captured an entire battery of 152 mm Msta-S self-propelled artillery mounts from the 18th Insterburg motorized rifle division of the RF Armed Forces. In order to secretly escape from the cauldron, Russian gunners threw absolutely serviceable self-propelled guns with full ammunition. The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was so swift that even long-range artillery, which was stationed 20 kilometers from the front line, was captured in its positions. It is especially amusing that Russian self-propelled guns are outlined with boastful inscriptions "To Kyiv" and "Crimea is ours". As a result, the braggarts fled to Moscow, and they threw not only guns, but also personal small arms. The Russian army near Balakleya scatters in complete panic.


https://t.me/ButusovPlus/969

On reddit video of MRLS off the road, lid off the fuel tank, another video of artillery strike on industrial complex where orcs seen pushing vehicle towards cover, multiple pieces of equipment abandoned. I think fuel is definitely an issue for the Orcs and is about to slow down Ukraine, doubtful they expected to race into occupied territory this fast. Some of you logistics experts would likely concur that even when resupply is planned for, it rarely is executed at the speed with which combat demands it.

I tried to find the vids/pics to link but so much is happening its too far down the threads.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to kag00 • 10:20a, 9/9/22
AG
kag00 said:
Let's hope that the Ukes have a plan to deal with a cornered wild animal that is those 20k thinking that they are fighting for their lives. Best case is that they don't have any fight left in them but I very much doubt that right now.

A modern day siege may be in the future for them to drain them if what supplies and fight they have left.


I think Kherson is giving them some practice with that.
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