***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,627,843 Views | 47859 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by 74OA
JFABNRGR
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This is a very interesting video of recent TB2 attack. I have been wanting to comment on it since it surfaced but wanted to wait a couple of days and since then they have redacted the Time on all newer videos, which should be done for OPSEC.

Its the destruction of one 120MM mortar tube and 3-4 boxes of munitions with a follow on attack of a supporting truck. In the initial attack you can clearly see a three tube battery, three trucks, and several soldiers active. It is difficult to tell if the tubes have been recently firing. The two on the left look to have more debris strewn about than the one on the right which was targeted. The operator flipped between targeting a box and the tube itself ultimately hitting the tube. It is interesting to me because a tube was targeted and not the truck with several soldiers next to it and that a TB2 against a mortar tube does not make much sense unless a UKR unit was getting hammered by this battery and needed immediate support or an upcoming operation needed them to be destroyed. Would love to have this Geolocated.

The initial attack is 1sept22 at 11:41:37 and at least one soldier not previously seen next to the boxes is severely wounded. A second attack occurs at 1sept22 at 12:02:53 on one of the two remaining trucks. The site at this time appears to be abandoned and one truck missing.

The interesting part is why the :23 min delay? Did the TB2 have to go rearm, did it follow the truck, or was something else hit with remaining payload. I don't think I have seen a single video with multiple drops in a single pass. 95KG payload specs.

The third attack on this vid is actually from the day before 31Aug22 at 21:33:02 almost a ten hour difference. A nine thirty at night attack two hours after sunset followed by daytime lunch attacks. All more recent TB2 attacks have almost info redacted.

https://funker530.com/video/tb2-bayraktar-destroys-multiple-russian-targets-in-kherson-offensive/

120 MM mortar 5.5K range.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/120-PM-43_mortar

This article says UKR has received a license to build and should complete 48 units by years end in Ukraine.
https://root-nation.com/en/articles-en/weapons-en/en-bayraktar-tb2-drone-review/
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
FriscoKid
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AgLA06
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If true, it looks like they're making a run on the north side from the west to cut of Izium.

Izium has Ockin river to the east, so if Ukraine can cut off retreat to the north there is potential for a huge route.
74OA
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It's important to not leap to broad conclusions from a brief conflict.

Despite Russian bumbling, armor will be of enduring utility on the battlefield.

TANKS
Waffledynamics
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Legal Custodian
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Is there a time-lapsed map of the state of occupation from the start until present? Trying to get caught up on the situation as it stands now.
FriscoKid
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SwigAg11
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FriscoKid said:


That doesn't show up translated for me. Throwing it in Google translate gives:

Kharkiv

The Russian army suffered heavy losses today. Large numbers of dead and prisoner losses reported

Incoming images confirm this.
FriscoKid
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Waffledynamics
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Legal Custodian said:

Is there a time-lapsed map of the state of occupation from the start until present? Trying to get caught up on the situation as it stands now.


Videos will get quickly outdated, especially with multiple Ukrainian offensives ongoing. However, checking out LiveUaMap and DeepStateMap are great places to start.
Waffledynamics
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FriscoKid
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Sounds like Bucca. This is a major development.
Waffledynamics
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Not entirely sure how much this endangers Ukrainian forces in the East along the Donetsk front, but I can't imagine it's too terribly bad or good news. Russia is already up to the M-04 highway in the Donetsk region, and it doesn't seem like they can easily use highways to encircle the forces north of there.

Edit: that's if this is even true. One comment reply suggests they're not to the highway yet.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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docb
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Apparently he died
Waffledynamics
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What

Waffledynamics
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Does he think he's safe there?

Edit: Apparently he was brought back with an escort and then fled again. Whereabouts unknown.
ABATTBQ11
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Every couple of years Russia hosts a tank biathlon. Different countries compete, and Russia provides tanks for some. Apparently this was a tank used for the 2014 competition.
Waffledynamics
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Unconfirmed and needs further corroboration:

Waffledynamics
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Couple this with other tales of chronic undersupply. We could be seeing Russia's wheels falling off in some places.
docb
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We may already be past the beginning of the end
lb3
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jt2hunt
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I don't see how Putin can keep himself from being assassinated at this point.
JFABNRGR
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Waffledynamics said:

Unconfirmed and needs further corroboration:


Taking of Kyselivka would put almost all of Kherson in standard artillery range.

Control of the T1501 road running NW to SE and then due east to Kherson gives you a lot better control of the Gulf of Dniprovska and eventually weakens the whole tip on the south side that extends toward Odessa. As this T1501 extends towards Kherson I would say its at the upper boundary for effective russian artillery range from the south side of the river.

I suspect in a couple days its going to look like a flotilla of orcs heading south across the Dnipro and some of them getting shot in the back by fsb if there is any left in Kherson.

The $100 question is, what next after Kherson. A HIMARS battery in Kherson effectively gives you target capability over EVERY road from 2014 borders to Kherson. It will not cover the E105 that can supply Melitopul from Crimea. Bridge or barges will have to be rebuilt over the Dnipro to get to Melitopul from the west.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russia at UNSC dismissed proposal to establish security perimeter around Zaporizhzhia Nuclear power plant as "non-serious"


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-september-russia-at-unsc-dismissed-proposal-to-establish
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian military in Staryi Karavan near Krasnyi Lyman


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-september-ukrainian-military-in-staryi-karavan-near-krasnyi

Red1
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My 2 cents for today. The CPT Obvious statement is something that is not brought up often. Sometimes nations lose wars because they run out of supplies, weapons systems, and other assets. For example, when Germany lost most of its experienced pilots in WWII, it meant we would gain air superiority.

- The Russians are facing severe attrition to their ground forces. They are enticing newbies with lots of money and promises of a short enlistment. This is especially problematic because they will not be trained beyond firing a rifle and they are motivated only by money.

- It appears Russia is buying weapons for North Korea. I don't think North Korean weapons are any better than what the Russians have. I will add and say Russian forces running out of fuel and supplies outside Kyiv tells me their logistics planning and capabilities suck.

The longer the conflict goes the greater the impact of attrition due to enemy and friendly actions. In battles and wars the commanders have three sets of data:

- Facts.
- Strong assumptions which are essentially facts but have yet to be proven.
- Pure assumptions that are speculative.

The Russians made the wrong assumption that Ukraine would fall quickly and precipitously. That is why we are seeing attrition to the Russian military. On the flipside with the US taking the lead, the logistics footprint to support the Ukrainian military must be huge.
ABATTBQ11
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FSB are going to be the first ones to go. They don't want to get caught, and they can wait for everyone retreating instead of catching up.
Bevo99
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Red1 said:

My 2 cents for today. The CPT Obvious statement is something that is not brought up often. Sometimes nations lose wars because they run out of supplies, weapons systems, and other assets. For example, when Germany lost most of its experienced pilots in WWII it meant we would gain air superiority.

- The Russians are facing severe attrition to their ground forces. They are enticing newbies with lots of money and promises of a short enlistment. This especially problematic because they will not be trained beyond firing a rifle and they are motivated by money.

- It appears Russia is buying weapons for North Korea. I don't think North Korean weapons are any better than what the Russians have.

The longer the conflict goes the greater the impact of attrition due to enemy and friendly actions. In battles and wars, the commanders have three sets of data:

- Facts.
- Strong assumptions which are essentially facts but have yet to be proven.
- Pure assumptions that are speculative.

The Russians made the wrong assumption that Ukraine would fall quickly and precipitously. That is why we are seeing attrition to the Russian military. On the flipside with the US taking the lead, the logistics footprint to support the Ukrainian military must be huge.
"promises of short enlistment"

Could also say "the rest of your life". Both are likely true.
FriscoKid
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I don't get it? Just that Russia has bugged out completely?
Red1
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JFABNRGR said:

Waffledynamics said:

Unconfirmed and needs further corroboration:


Taking of Kyselivka would put almost all of Kherson in standard artillery range.

Control of the T1501 road running NW to SE and then due east to Kherson gives you a lot better control of the Gulf of Dniprovska and eventually weakens the whole tip on the south side that extends toward Odessa. As this T1501 extends towards Kherson I would say its at the upper boundary for effective russian artillery range from the south side of the river.

I suspect in a couple days its going to look like a flotilla of orcs heading south across the Dnipro and some of them getting shot in the back by fsb if there is any left in Kherson.

The $100 question is, what next after Kherson. A HIMARS battery in Kherson effectively gives you target capability over EVERY road from 2014 borders to Kherson. It will not cover the E105 that can supply Melitopul from Crimea. Bridge or barges will have to be rebuilt over the Dnipro to get to Melitopul from the west.
If I was the commander of the Ukrainian Military I would approach the situation like a siege without the castle. Continue shaping operations of causing attrition to the Russian forces. When I think the odds favor us then I would attack with ground forces. Of course, I would order that air power be used.
P.U.T.U
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This, keep chipping away at strategic targets and watch Russia's artillery and missiles dwindle to a point where they cannot do the mass bombing on several fronts. Ukraine also has to work on not overextending itself, to take some of the cities/strategic roads they will likely have the Russians on three sides of them meaning they need proper rear security.

I think Ukraine does have the capability to damage the Krymsky bridge but is waiting until they are within range of more of the bases on the Crimean peninsula using standard artillery. They will probably try to cut off resupply via roads and the bridge at the same time therefore cutting off Russia from their supply routes. This will probably happen in winter where Russia will have to trust the roads more.
Waffledynamics
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At 5:35, Denys says that Russia reduced the amount of marine ships in the Black Sea carrying Kalibr cruise missiles to only two (2). Interesting.

At 9:38, Denys says he does not have confirmation that Balakliya is back in Ukrainian hands, but everything else I see seems to point in that direction.
AGS-R-TUFF
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Red1 said:

JFABNRGR said:

Waffledynamics said:

Unconfirmed and needs further corroboration:


Taking of Kyselivka would put almost all of Kherson in standard artillery range.

Control of the T1501 road running NW to SE and then due east to Kherson gives you a lot better control of the Gulf of Dniprovska and eventually weakens the whole tip on the south side that extends toward Odessa. As this T1501 extends towards Kherson I would say its at the upper boundary for effective russian artillery range from the south side of the river.

I suspect in a couple days its going to look like a flotilla of orcs heading south across the Dnipro and some of them getting shot in the back by fsb if there is any left in Kherson.

The $100 question is, what next after Kherson. A HIMARS battery in Kherson effectively gives you target capability over EVERY road from 2014 borders to Kherson. It will not cover the E105 that can supply Melitopul from Crimea. Bridge or barges will have to be rebuilt over the Dnipro to get to Melitopul from the west.
If I was the commander of the Ukrainian Military I would approach the situation like a siege without the castle. Continue shaping operations of causing attrition to the Russian forces. When I think the odds favor us then I would attack with ground forces. Of course, I would order that air power be used.
Yes and what's really interesting, especially within the occupied territory is…

It's becoming virtually impossible for the Russians to conceal their ammo sites. Uke sympathizers, SOF intel plus eyes in the sky appear to be able to successfully id and smoke these targets. As more and more of these munition storage zones go off like the 4th of July, the Russians' will slowly start conceding territory.

Winter is Coming!

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