Trying anything to take pressure off of Kherson by drawing Ukrainian forces away. Isn't going to work.

txags92 said:

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Belarus to conduct military exercises potentially aimed at Ukraine, General Staff says (yahoo.com)

Would love to see Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia announce a surprise joint NATO training exercise along the Belarus border to simulate repelling an invasion and counterattacking into Belarus.

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You know, I originally thought it's unproductively provocative. But I now wonder if it might pay off by causing just enough concern in Russia to delay deploying that new army group it is training to Ukraine. Do it.

74OA said:

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txags92 said:

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Belarus to conduct military exercises potentially aimed at Ukraine, General Staff says (yahoo.com)

Would love to see Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia announce a surprise joint NATO training exercise along the Belarus border to simulate repelling an invasion and counterattacking into Belarus.

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You know, I originally thought it's unproductively provocative. But I now wonder if it might pay off by causing just enough concern in Russia to delay deploying that new army group it is training to Ukraine. Do it.

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Short of NATO troops joining into Ukraine, not much is that provocative anymore. Putin is in a bad position. He played his nuke threat far too early. Now it is just boy who cried wolf too often.

74OA said:

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txags92 said:

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Belarus to conduct military exercises potentially aimed at Ukraine, General Staff says (yahoo.com)

Would love to see Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia announce a surprise joint NATO training exercise along the Belarus border to simulate repelling an invasion and counterattacking into Belarus.

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You know, I originally thought it's unproductively provocative. But I now wonder if it might pay off by causing just enough concern in Russia to delay deploying that new army group it is training to Ukraine. Do it.

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I am not that worried about how Russia would react, I am interested in making Belarus have just enough fear in the back of their mind that they decide they know better than to turn their "exercise" into an actual invasion. Hopefully word of the NATO buildup and exercises would cause a good number of the Belarus troops to think twice about any orders they get suggesting something other than an exercise.

I think the only nuke threat that remains is a high altitude burst - EMP. Not the ace of spades but damn close.

I think Putin has (quite rightly) concluded that any escalation into any type of WMD (chemical or nuke) would provoke an active reaction involving foreign troops and/or air power entering on the side of Ukraine. He knows now that his armed forces are a paper tiger (and shell of their former selves) compared to the NATO forces. So he isn't going to do anything that will provoke them to do more than they are currently doing. He is hoping that the west will get tired of supporting Ukraine and run out of leftover equipment to giveaway before he runs out of artillery shells and missiles. Ultimately, I think he is still getting terrible intel from his commanders in the field and thinks he still has a chance of success. So he will keep pushing, but I think all the momentum is gone from the orc offensive, and all they can hope to do is hold back the Ukrainian counteroffensive until winter sets in.

Ag In Ok said:

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I think the only nuke threat that remains is a high altitude burst - EMP. Not the ace of spades but damn close.

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That's bad enough. It would cause Europe to decivilize fast. And in winter that would ve extraordinary deadly.

Read the book One Second After. In most modern countries a high level EMP would kill 90% of the population within a year. It's prolong suffering of a nuclear weapon on surface

Great book! (and troubling to read). Whatever the population density of an area was in 1850 … it would be again within a few years after an EMP.

txags92 said:

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I think Putin has (quite rightly) concluded that any escalation into any type of WMD (chemical or nuke) would provoke an active reaction involving foreign troops and/or air power entering on the side of Ukraine. He knows now that his armed forces are a paper tiger (and shell of their former selves) compared to the NATO forces. So he isn't going to do anything that will provoke them to do more than they are currently doing. He is hoping that the west will get tired of supporting Ukraine and run out of leftover equipment to giveaway before he runs out of artillery shells and missiles. Ultimately, I think he is still getting terrible intel from his commanders in the field and thinks he still has a chance of success. So he will keep pushing, but I think all the momentum is gone from the orc offensive, and all they can hope to do is hold back the Ukrainian counteroffensive until winter sets in.

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Agree with your points. My concern about the Russian munition reserves is…

Iran or other members of the dark side resupplying via these continuous cargo flights, noted in previous posts. I wonder how many shells and/or missiles are being imported into the fight from other rogue sympathizers?

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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txags92 said:

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I think Putin has (quite rightly) concluded that any escalation into any type of WMD (chemical or nuke) would provoke an active reaction involving foreign troops and/or air power entering on the side of Ukraine. He knows now that his armed forces are a paper tiger (and shell of their former selves) compared to the NATO forces. So he isn't going to do anything that will provoke them to do more than they are currently doing. He is hoping that the west will get tired of supporting Ukraine and run out of leftover equipment to giveaway before he runs out of artillery shells and missiles. Ultimately, I think he is still getting terrible intel from his commanders in the field and thinks he still has a chance of success. So he will keep pushing, but I think all the momentum is gone from the orc offensive, and all they can hope to do is hold back the Ukrainian counteroffensive until winter sets in.

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Agree with your points. My concern about the Russian munition reserves is…

Iran or other members of the dark side resupplying via these continuous cargo flights, noted in previous posts. I wonder how many shells and/or missiles are being imported into the fight from other rogue sympathizers?

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I may be mistaken, but at the rate the Russians are firing their guns and losing ammo dumps and convoys, they need replacements by the trainload, not the plane load. Then again, there may be truck or train routes they are using too.

Russia wants to get to a position they can negotiate from where they will get a ceasefire and get to keep a satisfactory amount of their gains. They are hoping attrition will tire Ukraine of the fight, and the losses of infrastructure, population, production, revenue, etc will convince the civilian population to consider a negotiation favorable to Russia. I think Russia thinks with more time they can rebuild their military into something more effective.

I don't disagree with you that that's the Russians HOPE, but man, I think we have made it very clear that we are going to show them who daddy is.

Rolling with tanks? We'll donate Javelines and NLAWs.

Turn it into an artillery stalemate? We give the Ukes HIMARS.

Bring in drones from Iran? We will hand over Vampires.

Etc.

P.U.T.U said:

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Read the book One Second After. In most modern countries a high level EMP would kill 90% of the population within a year. It's prolong suffering of a nuclear weapon on surface

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The source of my comment of decivilization..
Russia could pop 2-3 off USA coasts and we'd be in the same boat. I live in Houston and we would survive 2-3 weeks. Just based on lack of functional transportation and lack of clean water. Zero illusions.

Save the last round 1 ea.

And i agree. The problem is if and when the Ukes take Kherson and cross the DNeiper, the Russians are losing. In a big way that may not be reversible. I can see the Russians using a tactical nuke as an EMP to lay waste to Kherson or Odessa, or Kharkiv as a line to prevent further loses in Donetsk or Luhansk. What other play would have have for peace and a buffer zone before gains are slowly eroded away by the wests arsenal? Will China and India actually step in and rearm the dwindling Russian stocks? Maybe, but then again maybe not.
Maybe if Belarus actually gets an army and crosses the border they may be able to sue for peace but i don't see that happening without some western counter.

Too much in the world seems to be hanging on by a thread.

You think they'll do that or send in all their troops and try to overwhelm Ukraine?

⚡️ Mayor: Russian forces hit Kharkiv with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.

Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that overnight, Russia damaged four vehicles and two undisclosed infrastructure sites.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 2, 2022

Many reports that they have been resorting to this. They are tossing random stuff into the cities. The S300 can be modified as a ground to ground missile but it is highly inaccurate. They have been launching a bunch of crap at Sumy and Kharkiv for the last few weeks. These are cities close to Russian borders and bases within Russia. Have seen reports of various ordinance used in these attacks but this is the first time I've seen them report S300 used in that region. Just more indication that they are scraping up what they have.

I have seen a few reports of Russian officials and collaborators telling their families to get out of Crimea.

It should be noted that amid frequent explosions in Crimea, the self-proclaimed authorities began removing their families from the occupied peninsula en masse.

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 2, 2022

Testing…

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 2, 2022

He's back!

Ukraine’s military also hit a Russian command and observation post, one pontoon bridge, three ammunition depots and two military supply points.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 3, 2022

⚡️ISW: Russian officials, proxies, bloggers pushing false narratives around Ukraine's southern counteroffensive.

The false narratives of a failed counteroffensive are likely meant "to exploit Ukrainian operational silence," according to the Institute for the Study of War.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 3, 2022

#Lavrov and a delegation of #Russian diplomats were denied visas to travel to the #UnitedStates to attend the #UN General Assembly. pic.twitter.com/emdGcvvw6E

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 3, 2022

A highly mobile Ukrainian buggy equipped with a roof(?) mounted DShK 12.7mm heavy machine gun pic.twitter.com/E3cMWe44JE

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 2, 2022

pic.twitter.com/caHuYksCNW

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 2, 2022

Ukrainian strike in Russian controlled Kozats'ke, Kherson Oblast pic.twitter.com/GuT099gK9P

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 2, 2022

UK MOD- The [Ukrainian offensive in Kherson Oblast] has limited immediate objectives, but Ukraine’s forces have likely achieved a degree of tactical surprise; exploiting poor logistics, administration and leadership in the Russian armed forces. pic.twitter.com/YTxC0GYkWf

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 3, 2022

Quote:

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Ukrainian air defense shot down all 5 Iskander missiles launched at Dnipro city overnight

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/3-september-ukrainian-air-defense-shot-down-all-5-iskander

#Ukraine: A Russian Pantsir-S1 SAM system was taken out by a Ukrainian strike, said to be in Oleshky, #Kherson Oblast. The loss of these potent systems enable the Bayraktar TB-2 drone to operate with more freedom, hence the footage we could show of recent use. pic.twitter.com/OUmwfNJFCf

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 3, 2022

txags92 said:

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AGS-R-TUFF said:

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txags92 said:

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I think Putin has (quite rightly) concluded that any escalation into any type of WMD (chemical or nuke) would provoke an active reaction involving foreign troops and/or air power entering on the side of Ukraine. He knows now that his armed forces are a paper tiger (and shell of their former selves) compared to the NATO forces. So he isn't going to do anything that will provoke them to do more than they are currently doing. He is hoping that the west will get tired of supporting Ukraine and run out of leftover equipment to giveaway before he runs out of artillery shells and missiles. Ultimately, I think he is still getting terrible intel from his commanders in the field and thinks he still has a chance of success. So he will keep pushing, but I think all the momentum is gone from the orc offensive, and all they can hope to do is hold back the Ukrainian counteroffensive until winter sets in.

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Agree with your points. My concern about the Russian munition reserves is…

Iran or other members of the dark side resupplying via these continuous cargo flights, noted in previous posts. I wonder how many shells and/or missiles are being imported into the fight from other rogue sympathizers?

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I may be mistaken, but at the rate the Russians are firing their guns and losing ammo dumps and convoys, they need replacements by the trainload, not the plane load. Then again, there may be truck or train routes they are using too.

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https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1564748636877213701.html

The thing that stood out to me was Russian soldiers are still in winter uniforms because they can't issue summer uniforms.

That is surprising. Wearing the same uniforms in an infantry environment for six months is a long time.

I remember hearing old guys who had been with 1st Recon in Vietnam talk about coming back from multi week patrols in the jungle and going through a ritual they called the "sheep dip" where they would shower and get treated for parasites or Immersion foot and throw away the old uniforms that were just dissolving off their bodies from being continuously sweaty and wet. Though Iraq was a very different environment, LtGen Mattis insisted that the Marine Corps eat the cost of issuing two new utility uniforms and a pair of new boots to each Marine that completed a tour in Iraq.

Not a lot of map changes, however it seems like Ukraine is still heavily degrading Russia in the South.

Interesting note at 2:20, the air defenses and sirens in Rostov-On-Don, inside of Russia, were activated. Not sure what the threat was.

You can see at 3:49 a satellite image of the Nova Kakhovka Bridge. It's basically half collapsed, and half-unsuable what hasn't collapsed.

At 4:21, he discusses an accident in Chernihiv that saw a captured Russian artillery shell that was stored in open air explode at an exhibition, causing civilian injuries. I guess it really is possible that some of this junk is going up on its own.

At 7:32, he shows another map that has some information about the Kherson counteroffensive. The claim is that Russia has lost ~2000 soldiers and ~80 tanks. Does that seem very likely? It seems like a bit much, especially for the tanks, at least going off of what I've heard called embellishment when Russia claims it.

Ukraine is moving multiple armored columns towards the Donetsk frontline, possibly indicating a second counteroffensive soon

I made a link to the Twitter post because of the embed problems with tweets labeled age-restricted content.

Who the hell puts an artillery shell on display with the fuse still installed?!?!?!

Or did it detonate with no fuse in place?