***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,630,049 Views | 47859 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by 74OA
P.U.T.U
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A western Ukraine mountain trained team fighting in the flat eastern part of the country. This article said they were fighting in Chuhuiv which on Livemap still shows to be under Ukraine control. Really doesn't show much fighting in the area so maybe it was a lull where they could mourn their dead
Waffledynamics
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I'm not sold yet on the entire 128th Mountain Assault Brigade being KIA yet. Any corroboration would be appreciated. If it's only from Russian or pro-Russian sources, it's probably not that reliable.

Here's them supposedly in Kherson two days ago.



And then some quite generous Russian reporting from Telegram.

Waffledynamics
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Watching now--will update with information as it seems relevant.

To start, Ukraine is making slow, methodical gains now in the Kherson region. It seems Ukraine is indeed planning to separate the area Northwest of the Dnipro River into three pieces and then divide and conquer. This is discussed and notated on the map at 0:47.

At 3:12, he mentions that Chaplynka's airfield has been used by the Russians and was recently attacked by Ukraine. This is a bit far Southeast of Kherson but still North of Crimea.

At 4:19, he mentions that an airfield near Melitopol still gives Russia some air capability in the Kherson region. I'm surprised it hasn't been hit, assuming Ukraine can use the Grom or ATACMS to hit further away.

At 10:20: Denys mentions that Belarus will simulate an attack in drills from September 8-14. It's still doubtful that they will enter Ukraine.
Not a Bot
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Shoot and scoot

Demosthenes81
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Looks like a target of opportunity to me.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
Not a Bot
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I'm seeing nothing confirming anything about massive Ukrainian casualties like what's being reported in Russian media. I find the claims dubious as the manner of the counteroffensive does not seem to be conducive to having that many in the line of fire to begin with.
PlaneCrashGuy
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I got behind on this thread by a few dozen pages. Still relatively stale? I saw they killed the famous Russian who opposed the war.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
Waffledynamics
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

I got behind on this thread by a few dozen pages. Still relatively stale? I saw they killed the famous Russian who opposed the war.
Ukraine has initiated a significant but methodical offensive on the front in the Kherson region. Since they are a smaller and less powerful military force, they need to take the long road. They've been degrading the Russians in that area. Information is slow to come out on this front due to a blackout from the Ukrainian side and propaganda from the Russian side. Sometimes, the Russians panic on social media like Telegram and tell the truth when SHTF.

The East is more or less at a standstill, with occasional gains at heavy losses for Russia. Sometimes Ukraine takes areas back, too.
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Not sure what the accords allow for. We know they are not going to let any naval vessels through. Not sure whether they can transport weapons on civilian ships.
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Case in point as to why I don't believe Russian reports about mass Ukrainian casualties.
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JFABNRGR
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The loss on the 128th MTN was probably the platoons or company of infantry caught in the open by drone and targeted by artillery vid i saw.

Below is a missile strike on what i hope to be orc troops. Reports show it to be both ways.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/x3vnv8/footage_of_ukrainian_rocket_artillery_targeting_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Gilligan
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Private PoopyPants said:



Case in point as to why I don't believe Russian reports about mass Ukrainian casualties.
The RuZZians have destroyed 44 Himars missiles with their equipment and personnel is more like it.
Waffledynamics
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Sounds like some good hits in the Kherson region.

Quote:

Russian base was destroyed in Tavriysk of Kherson region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/2-september-russian-base-was-destroyed-in-tavriysk-of-kherson

Quote:

Ammunition explosions after missile hit near railway bridge near Oleshky-Antonivka


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/2-september-ammunition-explosions-after-missile-hit-near
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ammunition warehouses exploded in Melitopol overnight


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/2-september-ammunition-warehouses-exploded-in-melitopol-overnight
LMCane
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Waffledynamics said:

Ouch


how do they know how many mines it was carrying?!
Waffledynamics
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Counting explosions? Good question, though.
sclaff
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Private PoopyPants said:


Biden must have shipped them the Bush/ Katrina weather machine
Gilligan
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Runs from a rat into a bomb dropped by a drone

The above reddit link has a thermal video of a guy who sees a rat, turns and runs, hops/crawls over two guys and right when he does a 180 the bomb goes.

At the two second mark there is a small white thermal signature that starts running up and to the right at the same moment the guys starts to run. Anyone else see the same thing?
Red1
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Private PoopyPants said:



Case in point as to why I don't believe Russian reports about mass Ukrainian casualties.
Here you go! There was an article stating Ukraine made fake HIMARS replicas.

GWT: Information minister claims coalition helicopters downed - YouTube
Swollen Thumb
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Private PoopyPants said:



Case in point as to why I don't believe Russian reports about mass Ukrainian casualties.
43 of them were wooden decoys.
Red1
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I am just reporting what I read and cannot vouch for the veracity of the reporting.

- Ukraine has 5 attack points in the area of operations west of the Dnipro River.
- The Ukrainians are completely in love with the HIMARS. It is a Revolution In Miltary Affairs.
- There is plenty of land for both sides to maneuver in.
- Perhaps Ukraine should not be overly aggressive on the offensive for the fear of creating a vulnerable salient. However, this entails the Russians to be able to maneuver.
- Ukraine is using armor at the point of attacks which tells me that the tempo of the attacks can be quick and violent.
- It is said that the US Military illuminated various situations for the Ukrainians. This is in line with the methodical and comprehensive planning process conducted by large army units like brigade, division, and corps in the US Army. The process is facilitated by staff members who have expertise in a specific field like operations and planning, intelligence, logistics, communication, and budget. They create a few Courses of Actions (COA) and wargame them. How would the Russians react to the COAs? I think this is a very good process if there is time to plan. It must take into account the capabilities and posture of friendly and enemy forces to include other variables like terrain, weather, natural obstacles, bridges, and routes.

This is my 2 cents for today.
benchmark
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Unverified.

ETA. Tweet removed but here's the screenshot:
JFABNRGR
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Gilligan said:

Runs from a rat into a bomb dropped by a drone

The above reddit link has a thermal video of a guy who sees a rat, turns and runs, hops/crawls over two guys and right when he does a 180 the bomb goes.

At the two second mark there is a small white thermal signature that starts running up and to the right at the same moment the guys starts to run. Anyone else see the same thing?
Good Catch.
PLS forward to the UKR INTEL PR department. I can only imagine the PR to come out of Ratatouille scares orcs to death. Or the Ghost of Donetsk Trenches.

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Explosions in Kozatske and Beryslav of Kherson region


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/2-september-explosions-in-kozatske-and-beryslav-of-kherson

That's four noted explosions right in the area of Nova Kakhovka in the last 12 hours or so, at least according to LiveUaMap.
Waffledynamics
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By the way everyone, this while time, the Kharkiv front in the Northeast has been getting absolutely pounded by shelling. It's basically constant. Somehow, that city and its surrounding areas are still mostly in Ukraine's hands. It's pretty brutal, though.
74OA
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I think Putin blundered with the energy weapon. By gradually choking off natural gas over the last six months, he's given the EU time to work on its supply lines, help industry adjust and mentally prepare its public for the inevitable shutdown. Overall, the continent now has gas storage filled at roughly 85% and increasing. In contrast, going into last winter gas storage was below 50% IIRC. Don't get me wrong--it's still going to be a tough winter, but not nearly as tough as it might have been.

NO MORE GAS
P.U.T.U
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Also Russia is starting to do more bombing in the northern part of Ukraine. Wonder why at this time
GT_Aggie2015
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