Here's the thing, if the rookies blow up a nuclear plant, it's time for the rest of Europe to get involved. That disaster will not be contained. Europe also leads this. Not the US. The US may broker a peace that involves Russia leaving Ukraine and all occupied territories in exchange the EU buys Russian O&G again and RU is on the hook for repairs in Ukraine.

But hell, that's just a fantasy.

Russia is moving aircraft out of Crimea.

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/russian_aviation_flees_from_crimea_where_the_enemy_planes_based_now-3923.html

Quote:

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Two more MiG-31s flew to Kushchevsk, and one MiG-31 all the way to Gelendzhik. According to the same message from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, during the flight on one of these fighters there was a fire on board, probably the main power plant and navigation equipment.

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Lmao

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Here's the thing, if the rookies blow up a nuclear plant, it's time for the rest of Europe to get involved. That disaster will not be contained. Europe also leads this. Not the US. The US may broker a peace that involves Russia leaving Ukraine and all occupied territories in exchange the EU buys Russian O&G again and RU is on the hook for repairs in Ukraine.

But hell, that's just a fantasy.

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Yeah Europe isn't going to lead anything.

javajaws said:

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LOL...time to refill the cannon fodder:

Quote:

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The Russian government announced this week it is bringing back a Soviet-era honorary title and financial reward bestowed upon Russian women who have 10 or more children.

In a decree this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed, it was announced that the title of "Mother Heroine" will again be awarded to Russian women who "birth and raise" 10 Russian citizens.

The title will come with a reward of 1 million Russian Rubles, equating to roughly $16,645 in U.S. dollars, once the tenth child turns one year of age. Recipients will also earn a five-pointed golden star medal, the decree states.

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https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-offers-16000-reward-honorary-title-russian-women-have-10-children

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Russia emulating the Nazi Lebensborn program. I'm shocked.

More evidence it was not an "accident" as Russia is trying to tell everyone. Good news for the Uke troops in the south. More distance to target means more fuel required which means they have to carry less weapons.

No link, but at the dentist with ABC news on. They were just showing some footage from the nuclear plant with a bunch of Russian trucks parked inside. They're definitely using it as a base.

P.U.T.U said:

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More evidence it was not an "accident" as Russia is trying to tell everyone. Good news for the Uke troops in the south. More distance to target means more fuel required which means they have to carry less weapons.

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I'm sure more maintenance issues will be a feature, too.

JFABNRGR said:

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What I find interesting is the OPSEC on the most recent crimea hits. No actual sat pics shared yet but we know they exist. There has been a little bit of weather over crimea last 48 hours but Waffledynmics shared pic of a field on fire within a klic or 2 of main strike the following day when it was clear. Given the size of the secondary explosions my theory is that there is a significant amount of collateral damage done to civilians and or civilian structures that they don't want to realize yet. Especially if it was atacams and not lil green men. I wonder if this will be the same of will it get disclosed.

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It's obvious they're likely sandbagging BDA for attacks in Crimea and Russia for policy reasons. What's not obvious is why public domain sat imagery isn't coming out. The yesterday evening (local time) attack on a very large Russian depot/distribution hub near Timonovo is a headscratcher example. Recent (April/May) Google Earth sat imagery of this Russian base haven't even been provided by milblogger sources.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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No link, but at the dentist with ABC news on. They were just showing some footage from the nuclear plant with a bunch of Russian trucks parked inside. They're definitely using it as a base.

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You know, if someone is degenerate enough to use a nuke plant as cover I'm more than willing to look the other way at using some chemical weapons to get them out.

benchmark said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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What I find interesting is the OPSEC on the most recent crimea hits. No actual sat pics shared yet but we know they exist. There has been a little bit of weather over crimea last 48 hours but Waffledynmics shared pic of a field on fire within a klic or 2 of main strike the following day when it was clear. Given the size of the secondary explosions my theory is that there is a significant amount of collateral damage done to civilians and or civilian structures that they don't want to realize yet. Especially if it was atacams and not lil green men. I wonder if this will be the same of will it get disclosed.

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It's obvious they're likely sandbagging BDA for attacks in Crimea and Russia for policy reasons. What's not obvious is why public domain sat imagery isn't coming out. The yesterday evening (local time) attack on a very large Russian depot/distribution hub near Timonovo is a headscratcher example. Recent (April/May) Google Earth sat imagery of this Russian base haven't even been provided by milblogger sources.

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You don't get a high quality commercial satellite launched without some level of agreement with the intelligence community about times when they will want you to not release certain images.

Waffledynamics said:

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Russia is moving aircraft out of Crimea.

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/russian_aviation_flees_from_crimea_where_the_enemy_planes_based_now-3923.html

Quote:

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Two more MiG-31s flew to Kushchevsk, and one MiG-31 all the way to Gelendzhik. According to the same message from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, during the flight on one of these fighters there was a fire on board, probably the main power plant and navigation equipment.

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Lmao

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Well I would rather have power and be lost, than be lost without power, but damn having both issues now you just hate to see it for the orc aviator. Yeah that is a funny one.

It almost reads like Uke war humor. Like it was shot down or crashed.

For you seamen:

A Ropucha-class LST near the Kerch Strait, likely earlier today. https://t.co/XNq1UHqPMe

— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) August 19, 2022

ABATTBQ11 said:

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No link, but at the dentist with ABC news on. They were just showing some footage from the nuclear plant with a bunch of Russian trucks parked inside. They're definitely using it as a base.

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Here it is: INSIDE

txags92 said:

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You don't get a high quality commercial satellite launched without some level of agreement with the intelligence community about times when they will want you to not release certain images.

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Doubtful. Soon after the reported attack on Russia's Gvardeyskoe airbase in Crimea a few days ago, Planet Labs released detailed sat photos showing no damage. So maybe we'll see something eventually.

Macron spoke to Putin about the situation at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant today. Macron "expressed his support for sending a mission of IAEA experts to the site as quickly as possible...The Russian President indicated his agreement to the deployment of this mission," per Elysee. pic.twitter.com/ByvjOnzX6M

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) August 19, 2022

The growing role of irregular warfare. BEHIND THE LINES

Waffledynamics said:

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Macron spoke to Putin about the situation at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant today. Macron "expressed his support for sending a mission of IAEA experts to the site as quickly as possible...The Russian President indicated his agreement to the deployment of this mission," per Elysee. pic.twitter.com/ByvjOnzX6M

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) August 19, 2022

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Putin: "Sure bring in the IAEA guys! That will make sure that the Ukrainians won't shell the artillery/MLRS base I have positioned there.

Great analysis on the depletion of Russian artillery tubes and ammunition. The Russians advantage in artillery is evaporating quickly and will collapse in the near future. Telenko cites some respectable estimates of how much ammo and how many tubes they began with. Then he whittles that away to come up with estimates of how much they have and what percentage of that is worthless and unreliable. Intercepted communications from one Russian artilleryman cites just one out of three guns being functional with no means to replace or repair them.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1559013688958455813.html

Quote:

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE
HISTORICAL COLLECTION DIVISION HR70-14
DATE: 07-18-2012
Warsaw Pact Ammunition Logistics in the Western Theater: Sustainability for Offensive Operations
An Intelligence Assessment
Top Secret
SOV 89-10057CX
June 1989

This document gives a total artillery ammunition storage of 6 million metric tons of packaged ammunition allocated as follows:

3 million tons to the Western Theater,
1 million tons to the Southern Theater and
2 million to the Far Eastern Theater.

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Quote:

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The Russians shooting 45,000 shells in a day means 22 and a half new guns are burned out at 2,000 EFC (Effective Full-Charge) a barrel.

Suppose instead the average EFC rate left on available Russian barrels was 1,000.

That means 45 barrels are shot out.

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Hey Putin, we can do this all day. WEAPONS

74OA said:

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Hey Putin, we can do this all day. WEAPONS

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Sweep the leg.

If the Ukes could break out in the southeast just north of the fat part of the Dnipro River and drive to the sea of Azov splitting the southern and eastern theaters, the Orcs would break.

It would be a free for all of Russians trying to escape Crimea.

Waffledynamics said:

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Macron spoke to Putin about the situation at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant today. Macron "expressed his support for sending a mission of IAEA experts to the site as quickly as possible...The Russian President indicated his agreement to the deployment of this mission," per Elysee. pic.twitter.com/ByvjOnzX6M

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) August 19, 2022

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so the wind goes from east to west in that part of Europe?

it may be worth it to at least kill off a bunch of Ruskies in the Zapirozhiye area with a small leak

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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Hey Putin, we can do this all day. WEAPONS

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Sweep the leg.

If the Ukes could break out in the southeast just north of the fat part of the Dnipro River and drive to the sea of Azov splitting the southern and eastern theaters, the Orcs would break.

It would be a free for all of Russians trying to escape Crimea.

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The Kerch bridge might collapse under the weight of all the microwaves and toaster ovens packed into the fleeing cars.

74OA said:

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Hey Putin, we can do this all day. WEAPONS

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Ruuskies going to be in a world of hurt if they start getting outranged by Uke artillery tubes

let's see how many of them enjoy being subjected to bombardment in a hole in the ground

and six inches of water around their legs in October

Quote:

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Air defense is active near Yevpatoriya, Crimea

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-august-air-defense-is-active-near-yevpatoriya-crimea

LMCane said:

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74OA said:

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Hey Putin, we can do this all day. WEAPONS

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Ruuskies going to be in a world of hurt if they start getting outranged by Uke artillery tubes

let's see how many of them enjoy being subjected to bombardment in a hole in the ground

and six inches of water around their legs in October

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I read that article posted about Russia burning out their artillery.

I can only hope not only are we supplying more pieces, but enough barrels and parts to keep the previously provided pieces running. There was rumors of some of the self propelled pieces failing.

If so, not only could the Orcs be outranged, but outgunned in the near future. Assuming they don't run out of shells to fire first.

You can draw out an artillery battle with Russia until they run out but no one knows for sure how many Russia had to start with, yes we have an estimate but that is all it is. Keep taking out key logistic placements, airfields, and ammo/weapon systems storage sites and demoralize the Russian troops even more. Taking out part of the rails on the Kerch bridge would be huge, I doubt at this point the Ukes take out the civilian vehicle part of the bridge since there are so many trying to flee the Crimea area.

This war also shows the difference in the special operations forces. Russia's are like their country's animal, the bear. Big, strong, and uses force to overpower an opponent. You saw how they treated their enemy's populace in Afghanistan and Africa, threats of torture to you and your entire family unless you submit. Whereas Ukraine has been modeling their special operations forces on the USA's, they have direct action groups like the SEALs but they also have troops similar to the Green Berets. Whether they are going behind enemy lines and killing officers, sabotaging equipment, or working with the local populace, like in Crimea, to get intel or even have them start helping the Ukraine soldiers. Much like in WWII when the OSS worked with the French citizens to get rid of the German invaders.

I have no idea if the Uke special operations teams have been involved on the attacks in Crimea but it would not shock me in the least if they were

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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Hey Putin, we can do this all day. WEAPONS

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Sweep the leg.

If the Ukes could break out in the southeast just north of the fat part of the Dnipro River and drive to the sea of Azov splitting the southern and eastern theaters, the Orcs would break.

It would be a free for all of Russians trying to escape Crimea.

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A little more.

"1,000, tube-launched, optically tracked anti-tank missiles for Carl Gustaf weapons sent by other allies."

Oh, this is going to start being fun.

Probably not a coincidence it goes over with 100+ armored vehicles. How to you say Blitzkrieg in Uke?

At one time they had a limit of like 5 or 10 rounds allowed to be fired by each shooter before risking TBIs. I was listening to a podcast the other day where one guy said he was firing around 20 a day.

Each round is around 8 pounds so infantry is limited to 4-5 rounds to carry each. Strap them to a vehicle and it is game on

P.U.T.U said:

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At one time they had a limit of like 5 or 10 rounds allowed to be fired by each shooter before risking TBIs. I was listening to a podcast the other day where one guy said he was firing around 20 a day.

Each round is around 8 pounds so infantry is limited to 4-5 rounds to carry each. Strap them to a vehicle and it is game on

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I get it. And it's great if they're watching things like that for our military.

But if we had a Red Dawn type of scenario like the Ukes are facing, those kind of restrictions are out of the window for us too.

Quote:

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Air defense is active in Sevastopol, occupation authorities confirmed

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-august-air-defense-is-active-in-sevastopol-occupation

I was hoping harpoon.

Supposedly drones.

Russia said it shot down some drones so likely. They have a decent amount of S400s in that area so a drone would be an easy target. Doubt the S400 could shoot down a Harpoon unless it got lucky. It was designed to shoot down aircraft and not small missile systems

Some breaking reports on the air war.
DOGFIGHT
MISSILES