⚡️Russian media say Ukrainian military destroyed Wagner Group base in occupied Popasna.

Yuriy Kotenok, a Russian propagandist, wrote on his Telegram that Ukrainian forces used HIMARS missiles to hit the base in Popasna, Luhansk oblast.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 14, 2022

⚡️General Staff: Armed Forces repulse Russian attacks in 3 directions.

Ukraine's military reported that Russian forces had partial success in the direction of Bakhmut, Donetsk oblast, while suffering losses and being forced to retreat near Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Avdiivka.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 14, 2022

⚡️Governor: Russia shells four border communities in Sumy Oblast.

Sumy Oblast Governor Dmytro Zhyvytskyi reported that on Aug. 14 Russian forces attacked the Yunakivska, Khotinska, Bilopilska, and Esmanska communities 11 times over the past 24 hours.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 14, 2022

Quote:

---

Massive shelling of Bakhmut overnight - more than 150 missiles hit the town, multiple fires

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-august-massive-shelling-of-bakhmut-overnight--more-than

Russia seems to be going scorched earth by mass destruction when they can't gain any ground.

They haven't fought a major ground campaign since 1945. They're falling back on what they know: mass bombardment followed by mass attack.

P.U.T.U said:

---

Russia seems to be going scorched earth by mass destruction when they can't gain any ground.

---

They're trying to suck reinforcements and supplies from the Uke build up in the South. If the Ukes can force a breakthrough and put the transport links to Crimea down it's going to be a colossal disaster for the Russians.

P.U.T.U said:

---

Russia seems to be going scorched earth by mass destruction when they can't gain any ground.

---

That's pretty much their entire history tbh. Sore losers I guess.

I am still struggling to see the big picture from Russian shoes.

Since this has shaken out some by now, what do yall see as the political cons for Putin if he DID declare an actual war and put the nation on an official war footing? Are they really bad enough that he is STILL afraid to do so? I've seen pictures of the latest batches of "volunteers" at Russian recruiting centers and scraping the bottom of the barrel had never been more apt. Bunch of grizzled, old men with pot bellies looking tired/scared. Pitiful even.

Putin ****ing sucks.

Russia's got themselves in a no win position. I don't see how Putin gains a square inch of territory when its all said and done. Ukraine is going to fight until they get it back.

Lystopad was recognized in 2019 as Ukraine's top fighter pilot and last year led the flight of an air column over Khreshchatyk as part of Ukraine's 30th anniversary celebrations.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 15, 2022

#Afghanistan plans to buy about 1 million barrels of oil from #Russia and asks for a barter if Russia is interested in #Afghan products. pic.twitter.com/hfto5qu2Or

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 15, 2022

Footage of the aftermath of yesterday's strike on the #Wagner PMC base in #Popasna. pic.twitter.com/mhed4MnH1P

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 15, 2022

Serhiy Haidai, head of the #Luhansk regional military administration, confirmed the information about the strike on the Wagner PMC base in #Popasna. pic.twitter.com/L5mAKpJSSI

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 15, 2022

#Russian invaders confirm a #Ukrainian strike on a Wagner PMC base in #Popasna, #Luhansk region. pic.twitter.com/yP1VahMB54

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 15, 2022

No telling yet how the Kherson fight will work out, but I sure hope a significant number of the ~20K Russian troops reportedly fighting there are ultimately captured.

Not only would it be a major blow to Putin and the Russian army, but it would also provide the Ukrainians with bargaining chips to exchange for their own POWs and the hundreds of thousands of kidnapped Ukrainian civilians.

TRAPPED?

74OA said:

---

No telling yet how the Kherson fight will work out, but I sure hope a significant number of the ~20K Russian troops reportedly fighting there are ultimately captured.

Not only would it be a major blow to Putin and the Russian army, but it would also provide the Ukrainians with bargaining chips to exchange for their own POWs and the hundreds of thousands of kidnapped Ukrainian civilians.

TRAPPED?

---

I haven't seen anything to suggest Russia would negotiate on behalf of their people.

Can you imagine being up in that thing when it was hit?

That's a horrible last 10 seconds of life.

Doesn't look like a drone or missle. I don't see anything flying into the base. Just an explosion, almost like a controlled demolition.

Eliminatus said:

---

P.U.T.U said:

---

Russia seems to be going scorched earth by mass destruction when they can't gain any ground.

---

That's pretty much their entire history tbh. Sore losers I guess.

I am still struggling to see the big picture from Russian shoes.

Since this has shaken out some by now, what do yall see as the political cons for Putin if he DID declare an actual war and put the nation on an official war footing? Are they really bad enough that he is STILL afraid to do so? I've seen pictures of the latest batches of "volunteers" at Russian recruiting centers and scraping the bottom of the barrel had never been more apt. Bunch of grizzled, old men with pot bellies looking tired/scared. Pitiful even.

Putin ****ing sucks.

---

Most of Russia still thinks they're doing well and that the "special military operation" is still a small scale conflict. Declaring war means they ****ed up and confirms they're losing, but it also confirms how much they've lost. Any realistic casualty numbers put out are explained away as western propaganda, but if Russia declares actual war then they're implicitly admitting that they've lost too many men and too much equipment to achieve their objectives. Essentially, they're admitting defeat. That kind of perceived failure in the Cuban missile crisis is what cost Khrushchev his job, and it would probably be the same for Putin but on a faster timeline.

txags92 said:

---

Private PoopyPants said:

---

#Afghanistan plans to buy about 1 million barrels of oil from #Russia and asks for a barter if Russia is interested in #Afghan products. pic.twitter.com/hfto5qu2Or

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 15, 2022

---

So what "products" would Afghanistan have sitting around that the orcs might want to trade oil for? Opium might help Putin's mindset, but I bet all the American weapons systems left behind would be more valuable to the orcs.

---

Spetsnatz was already removing DOD sensitive materials and equipment even before the last C17 lifted off. We damn near got in a gunfight with them and wondering now had that happened would we be where we are now with the Ukraine invasion.

As for 20K pows, talk about a logistics problem for Ukraine however better than 20k enemy troops shooting at you.

How feasible/realistic could it be for a UN led SOF mission to take control of the power plant and set up and "defense zone" around it without any other offensive attacks? Would Russia lose it if a UN soldier killed a Russian soldier at the plant?

How long before Wagner sends its mercenaries to "visit" that dumb reporter? STRIKE

DeBoss said:

---

How feasible/realistic could it be for a UN led SOF mission to take control of the power plant and set up and "defense zone" around it without any other offensive attacks? Would Russia lose it if a UN soldier killed a Russian soldier at the plant?

---

Well to my knowledge the UN couldn't successfully conduct a one car funeral procession. Maybe NATO under the cover of the un.

Complex issue for sure. If you get in to the plant and take Control than the problem becomes how to protect them and the plant from artillery and missile strikes. This would require a combined arms effort and basically all in.

The trick would be to take control without letting russia know they lost it. Maybe un/nato barter some bs sanctions etc back to get them to pull out off the plant and stop targeting it.

Yeah, totally meant NATO, getting my groups confused. I was really just wondering at what point this becomes such a large issue that they can not sit by idle any longer. it would take full commitment to that spot but it could also turn this into a full WW3 if NATO soldiers kill a Russian. If Russia did something and the fallout affected a NATO country, is that grounds for NATO to have to respond?

There is no way that the Russians are going to accept a NATO force moving in and setting up shop at a nuke plant in Ukraine, when that is one of the few spots they can stack stuff that the Ukrainians won't hit with HIMARS. Trying to do that would just feed the orc narrative that Ukraine is a NATO puppet, and the orcs might just attack the plant deliberately to radiate the NATO team, while blaming it on NATO.

txags92 said:

---

Private PoopyPants said:

---

#Afghanistan plans to buy about 1 million barrels of oil from #Russia and asks for a barter if Russia is interested in #Afghan products. pic.twitter.com/hfto5qu2Or

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 15, 2022

---

So what "products" would Afghanistan have sitting around that the orcs might want to trade oil for? Opium might help Putin's mindset, but I bet all the American weapons systems left behind would be more valuable to the orcs.

---

lithium and other minerals; the stuff we left behind isn't anything they wouldn't have already had copies of from bunch of other sources.

Now they may want the equipment to send to Uke to replace the stuff they've lost

JFABNRGR said:

---

DeBoss said:

---

How feasible/realistic could it be for a UN led SOF mission to take control of the power plant and set up and "defense zone" around it without any other offensive attacks? Would Russia lose it if a UN soldier killed a Russian soldier at the plant?

---

Well to my knowledge the UN couldn't successfully conduct a one car funeral procession. Maybe NATO under the cover of the un.

Complex issue for sure. If you get in to the plant and take Control than the problem becomes how to protect them and the plant from artillery and missile strikes. This would require a combined arms effort and basically all in.

The trick would be to take control without letting russia know they lost it. Maybe un/nato barter some bs sanctions etc back to get them to pull out off the plant and stop targeting it.

---

Hmm. How to get all those Russians off a nuclear plant. Seems like a twist in the Hunt for Red October. One of the PhDs needs to fake a leak and watch the Russians scurry the hell outta there.

Ag In Ok said:

---

JFABNRGR said:

---

DeBoss said:

---

How feasible/realistic could it be for a UN led SOF mission to take control of the power plant and set up and "defense zone" around it without any other offensive attacks? Would Russia lose it if a UN soldier killed a Russian soldier at the plant?

---

Well to my knowledge the UN couldn't successfully conduct a one car funeral procession. Maybe NATO under the cover of the un.

Complex issue for sure. If you get in to the plant and take Control than the problem becomes how to protect them and the plant from artillery and missile strikes. This would require a combined arms effort and basically all in.

The trick would be to take control without letting russia know they lost it. Maybe un/nato barter some bs sanctions etc back to get them to pull out off the plant and stop targeting it.

---

Hmm. How to get all those Russians off a nuclear plant. Seems like a twist in the Hunt for Red October. One of the PhDs needs to fake a leak and watch the Russians scurry the hell outta there.

---

Wouldn't work. They would just neglect to tell the troops what was happening. The troops they have there probably have no idea how nuclear plants work and wouldn't understand if you tried to explain to them why it is dangerous for them to be there.

one would need to look no further than chernobyl, then or now, to support your premise.

JFABNRGR said:

---

one would need to look no further than chernobyl, then or now, to support your premise.

---

That was the example I was thinking of when I wrote that. We tend to think of what troops know based on our own education system, but the Russian education system is trash and it is very unlikely that the troops they are using even know what radiation is.

74OA said:

---

No telling yet how the Kherson fight will work out, but I sure hope a significant number of the ~20K Russian troops reportedly fighting there are ultimately captured.

Not only would it be a major blow to Putin and the Russian army, but it would also provide the Ukrainians with bargaining chips to exchange for their own POWs and the hundreds of thousands of kidnapped Ukrainian civilians.

TRAPPED?

---

The only way this war comes to a quick end, barring a shocking capitulation by Ukraine, is if the offensive to retake Kherson succeeds and allows Ukraine to press on all the way to the Isthmus of Perekop, which connects Crimea to mainland Ukraine. You wouldn't think it to look at a map, but Crimea lacks fresh water, and the Soviets built a canal diverting water from the Dnipro in the '60s that allowed the plains of Crimea to become productive agricultural land. When the Russians took Crimea in 2014, Ukraine dammed the canal to stop the flow of water. Reestablishing that flow of water was a key invasion objective.

Yes, it's from NPR but it's a good read

I think this is probably a more realistic objective than forcibly ejecting the Russians from Donbas, but, if accomplished, it would give Ukraine a big bargaining chip in potential negotiations to end the war, perhaps trading water for Crimea in exchange for a return to pre-invasion borders (neither side would like it, but that's what happens in a compromise).

Red Pear Realty said:

---

I wouldn't agree to that if I were Ukraine. Allowing Russia to stay in Crimea just allows them a base to launch future invasions years from now, and this whole war would be for nothing. Expel them completely or die trying.

---

That's the problem. I don't think Ukraine has the resources to expel Russia completely, even if we were to give them everything they want. The Russians are about out of steam, too, but they would be content to call it a day and wait for another opportunity a few years down the road, having taken another big slice of Ukraine this time around, like they did after taking Crimea.

If you have the momentum to retake Kherson you go all the way to the Crimean coast you keep going. A lot of attacks to mainland Ukraine have come from Crimea and the waters around it. You destroy or badly damage the Krymsky bridge which would landlock any remaining troops. The Russians only way to resupply would be via water and Ukraine now has several weapon systems that can reach the base at Sevastopol if they take Kherson. Take out the S400 missile systems protecting the military bases there and slowly get air superiority.

One of the factors in this war is Russia is a dying state due to demographics. This is an existential war for Putin. He may be exhausting his poolnof available men who are fit enough to fight. Their tech is proving to be no match for modern weapons. This could be the last gasp of a military able to project force.