74OA said:
No telling yet how the Kherson fight will work out, but I sure hope a significant number of the ~20K Russian troops reportedly fighting there are ultimately captured.
Not only would it be a major blow to Putin and the Russian army, but it would also provide the Ukrainians with bargaining chips to exchange for their own POWs and the hundreds of thousands of kidnapped Ukrainian civilians.
TRAPPED?
The only way this war comes to a quick end, barring a shocking capitulation by Ukraine, is if the offensive to retake Kherson succeeds and allows Ukraine to press on all the way to the Isthmus of Perekop, which connects Crimea to mainland Ukraine. You wouldn't think it to look at a map, but Crimea lacks fresh water, and the Soviets built a canal diverting water from the Dnipro in the '60s that allowed the plains of Crimea to become productive agricultural land. When the Russians took Crimea in 2014, Ukraine dammed the canal to stop the flow of water. Reestablishing that flow of water was a key invasion objective.
Yes, it's from NPR but it's a good readI think this is probably a more realistic objective than forcibly ejecting the Russians from Donbas, but, if accomplished, it would give Ukraine a big bargaining chip in potential negotiations to end the war, perhaps trading water for Crimea in exchange for a return to pre-invasion borders (neither side would like it, but that's what happens in a compromise).