benchmark said:

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74OA said:

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Three more Russian generals get the SACK.

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Also this.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 7 August 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/Q9m6pBivU7

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/CSsurnK3iR

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 7, 2022

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Are these guys removed from theatre or demoted and kept in the fight somewhere? Because if they're getting one wayed back to mother Russia, that's probably saving their arses from the Uke target list.

In military operations, we often speak about ‘seizing the initiative’. It is a term used in doctrinal publications, and heavily emphasised in leadership & operations. Today, an examination of whether there may be a pending shift in the initiative in #Ukraine. 1/25 🧵 pic.twitter.com/UQal4wWePB

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) August 7, 2022

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1556092549474820097.html

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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benchmark said:

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74OA said:

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Three more Russian generals get the SACK.

---

Also this.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 7 August 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/Q9m6pBivU7

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/CSsurnK3iR

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 7, 2022

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Are these guys removed from theatre or demoted and kept in the fight somewhere? Because if they're getting one wayed back to mother Russia, that's probably saving their arses from the Uke target list.

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If Putin is truly trying to go back to the USSR, they are taking a one way trip to Lefortovo prison where they will tragically suffer a 9x18mm brain hemorrhage.

Really interesting thread. Thanks for sharing. I imagine Ukraine has a bit more shaping to do?

One of the best posts in this entire thread.

sclaff said:

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In military operations, we often speak about ‘seizing the initiative’. It is a term used in doctrinal publications, and heavily emphasised in leadership & operations. Today, an examination of whether there may be a pending shift in the initiative in #Ukraine. 1/25 🧵 pic.twitter.com/UQal4wWePB

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) August 7, 2022

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1556092549474820097.html

---

If I had to plan the attack on the Russian 42nd Division I would continue to:

- Destroy bridges or keep them destroyed.
- Destroy rail capabilities of the Russians.
- Destroy ammunition and supply depots.
- Destroy command centers.
- Control logistics routes.

I would not decisively engage the 42nd but will fight a battle of attrition. I would want:

- Blocking force to prevent reinforcements.
- Fixing force to decisively engage the 42nd. Decisively engage means the enemy cannot move.
- Flanking force.

I don't have any metrics to go by, so I don't know if the Ukrainians can pull this off. I do hope they can pull this off.

Red1 said:

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If I had to plan the attack on the Russian 42nd Division I would continue to:

- Destroy bridges or keep them destroyed.
- Destroy rail capabilities of the Russians.
- Destroy ammunition and supply depots.
- Destroy command centers.
- Control logistics routes.

I would not decisively engage the 42nd but will fight a battle of attrition. I would want:

- Blocking force to prevent reinforcements.
- Fixing force to decisively engage the 42nd. Decisively engage means the enemy cannot move.
- Flanking force.

I don't have any metrics to go by, so I don't know if the Ukrainians can pull this off. I do hope they can pull this off.

---

You wouldn't decisively engage them but you'd decisively engage them?

https://gagadget.com/en/war/154802-atacms-replacement-lockheed-martin-is-developing-a-new-missile-for-himars-and-m270-with-a-range-of-up-to-650-km-it-wi-amp/

GAC06 said:

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Red1 said:

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If I had to plan the attack on the Russian 42nd Division I would continue to:

- Destroy bridges or keep them destroyed.
- Destroy rail capabilities of the Russians.
- Destroy ammunition and supply depots.
- Destroy command centers.
- Control logistics routes.

I would not decisively engage the 42nd but will fight a battle of attrition. I would want:

- Blocking force to prevent reinforcements.
- Eventually use a fixing force to decisively engage the 42nd. Decisively engage means the enemy cannot move.
- Flanking force.

I don't have any metrics to go by, so I don't know if the Ukrainians can pull this off. I do hope they can pull this off.

---

You wouldn't decisively engage them but you'd decisively engage them?



Red1
I would attrit them and eventually want to fix them.

Patton was known for decisively engaging and fixing the Germans with forward elements or fighter planes, so he could attack the Germans on his terms.

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Red1 said:

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If I had to plan the attack on the Russian 42nd Division I would continue to:

- Destroy bridges or keep them destroyed.
- Destroy rail capabilities of the Russians.
- Destroy ammunition and supply depots.
- Destroy command centers.
- Control logistics routes.

I would not decisively engage the 42nd but will fight a battle of attrition. I would want:

- Blocking force to prevent reinforcements.
- Fixing force to decisively engage the 42nd. Decisively engage means the enemy cannot move.
- Flanking force.

I don't have any metrics to go by, so I don't know if the Ukrainians can pull this off. I do hope they can pull this off.

---

the ballsiest move would be for Uke forces to debauch from the Odessa area and take small boats across the water to the part of Kherson Oblast SOUTH of the Dnipro River

that would cut the only link from Crimea and cause mass confusion. they would have to build up a position along the west coast of that peninsula and cut the highway from Crimea into Kherson.

Quote:

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Explosions reported in several cities of Kherson region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/7-august-explosions-reported-in-several-cities-of-kherson



All highlighted icons were hit. This was reported 3 hours ago on LiveUAMap.

Red1 said:

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I would attrit them and eventually want to fix them.

Patton was known for decisively engaging and fixing the Germans with forward elements or fighter planes, so he could attack the Germans on his terms.

---

Kinda lost in the semantics/analogies here ... but there's no need to attrit if the Orks wisely decide to leave Kherson voluntarily. My vote is to fix Kherson with only necessary and minimal engagement for the moment ... while pivoting east to take the dam at Novo Kakhovka. I know I'm a broken record on this but Kherson is political and the dam is strategic.

This short clip deserves the world's full attention. Russian forces in #Enerhodar are using the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as a playground for soldiers, armored units, and equipment to hide in.

The facility is the 9th largest in the world. pic.twitter.com/ZQ728FI7A0

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) August 7, 2022

benchmark said:

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Red1 said:

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I would attrit them and eventually want to fix them.

Patton was known for decisively engaging and fixing the Germans with forward elements or fighter planes, so he could attack the Germans on his terms.

---

Kinda lost in the semantics/analogies here ... but there's no need to attrit if the Orks wisely decide to leave Kherson voluntarily. My vote is to fix Kherson with only necessary and minimal engagement for the moment ... while pivoting east to take the dam at Novo Kakhovka. I know I'm a broken record on this but Kherson is political and the dam is strategic.

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I don't know what the Russians want and can do. Competent Generals will wargame the situation and will develop the most likely Russian Course of Action (COA) and alternate Russian COAs and how to react to them. I am going to make the assumption some of our generals are guiding the Ukranian planners because we use this methodology when we plan for large operations.

ClifsNotes of this conflict since May?

Ghost of Bizbee said:

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ClifsNotes of this conflict since May?

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• Russia makes little gains for high cost
• Ukraine has been getting more aid that is helping them severely screw with Russian logistics and C&C
• Some areas are back-and-forth
• Focus is switching from the East to the South and Northeast (but mostly South) due to Ukraine positioning troops for an offensive. Ukraine is now gaining some ground back in the East
• A lot of other stuff I'm forgetting since a lot has gone on since May.

Waffledynamics said:

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Ghost of Bizbee said:

---

ClifsNotes of this conflict since May?

---

• Russia makes little gains for high cost
• Ukraine has been getting more aid that is helping them severely screw with Russian logistics and C&C
• Some areas are back-and-forth
• Focus is switching from the East to the South and Northeast (but mostly South) due to Ukraine positioning troops for an offensive. Ukraine is now gaining some ground back in the East
• A lot of other stuff I'm forgetting since a lot has gone on since May.

---

orc losses

• 931 MBTs
• 521 AFVs
• 1152 IFVs
• 321 IDF (artillery)
• 38 fixed wing
• 49 rotary wing
• 104 drones

Orcs continue to attack civilian population areas with med/long range rockets and artillery. Areas they have taken they have mostly destroyed completely.
They now also occupy, shoot from, and store weaponry within the large Zapprizhia nuke plant.
To date it appears russia has zero regard for human life of either side.
recently burned up 50+ UKR POWs sickening.

Ghost of Bizbee said:

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ClifsNotes of this conflict since May?

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Orcs castrated a Ukraine pow. Video is online.

pluto29 said:

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This short clip deserves the world's full attention. Russian forces in #Enerhodar are using the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as a playground for soldiers, armored units, and equipment to hide in.

The facility is the 9th largest in the world. pic.twitter.com/ZQ728FI7A0

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) August 7, 2022

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If ever there was a place to use nerve agents, this would be that place.

JFABNRGR said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Ghost of Bizbee said:

---

ClifsNotes of this conflict since May?

---

• Russia makes little gains for high cost
• Ukraine has been getting more aid that is helping them severely screw with Russian logistics and C&C
• Some areas are back-and-forth
• Focus is switching from the East to the South and Northeast (but mostly South) due to Ukraine positioning troops for an offensive. Ukraine is now gaining some ground back in the East
• A lot of other stuff I'm forgetting since a lot has gone on since May.

---

orc losses

• 931 MBTs
• 521 AFVs
• 1152 IFVs
• 321 IDF (artillery)
• 38 fixed wing
• 49 rotary wing
• 104 drones

Orcs continue to attack civilian population areas with med/long range rockets and artillery. Areas they have taken they have mostly destroyed completely.
They now also occupy, shoot from, and store weaponry within the large Zapprizhia nuke plant.
To date it appears russia has zero regard for human life of either side.
recently burned up 50+ UKR POWs sickening.

---

Thank you both. This is all since Putin put the butcher in command?

Ghost of Bizbee said:

---

JFABNRGR said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

Ghost of Bizbee said:

---

ClifsNotes of this conflict since May?

---

• Russia makes little gains for high cost
• Ukraine has been getting more aid that is helping them severely screw with Russian logistics and C&C
• Some areas are back-and-forth
• Focus is switching from the East to the South and Northeast (but mostly South) due to Ukraine positioning troops for an offensive. Ukraine is now gaining some ground back in the East
• A lot of other stuff I'm forgetting since a lot has gone on since May.

---

orc losses

• 931 MBTs
• 521 AFVs
• 1152 IFVs
• 321 IDF (artillery)
• 38 fixed wing
• 49 rotary wing
• 104 drones

Orcs continue to attack civilian population areas with med/long range rockets and artillery. Areas they have taken they have mostly destroyed completely.
They now also occupy, shoot from, and store weaponry within the large Zapprizhia nuke plant.
To date it appears russia has zero regard for human life of either side.
recently burned up 50+ UKR POWs sickening.

---

Thank you both. This is all since Putin put the butcher in command?

---

Alexander Dvornikov? He's been relieved of his position as of late May.

https://www.yahoo.com/video/general-dvornikov-no-longer-command-155200379.html

I am trying to put on the shoes of a Russian General:

- The ability to maneuver can be challenging.
- Logistics can suck.
- Centralized decision making slows down the process.
- The soldiers are ill trained and lack initiative and agility.
- The morale of the soldiers is low.
- The lack of capability to repair broken vehicles adds to the attrition.
- The army lacks the precision fires that Ukraine has.

Those are all fundamental tenets of an army, and I can't see how a general can turn the ship around considering all the flaws.

You start leveling cities to the ground.

^^^this is the next step^^^

You find a way to either make it look like or create so much hatred on the Ukranian side that it they begin torturing and killing Russian POW's.

The you use this as an excuse to begin to wipe out entire population centers and carpet bomb them into the earth.

That is the only way to win at this point.

But Russia needs an excuse real or imagined to begin this phase of the campaign.

Waffledynamics said:

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Ghost of Bizbee said:

---

JFABNRGR said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

Ghost of Bizbee said:

---

ClifsNotes of this conflict since May?

---

• Russia makes little gains for high cost
• Ukraine has been getting more aid that is helping them severely screw with Russian logistics and C&C
• Some areas are back-and-forth
• Focus is switching from the East to the South and Northeast (but mostly South) due to Ukraine positioning troops for an offensive. Ukraine is now gaining some ground back in the East
• A lot of other stuff I'm forgetting since a lot has gone on since May.

---

orc losses

• 931 MBTs
• 521 AFVs
• 1152 IFVs
• 321 IDF (artillery)
• 38 fixed wing
• 49 rotary wing
• 104 drones

Orcs continue to attack civilian population areas with med/long range rockets and artillery. Areas they have taken they have mostly destroyed completely.
They now also occupy, shoot from, and store weaponry within the large Zapprizhia nuke plant.
To date it appears russia has zero regard for human life of either side.
recently burned up 50+ UKR POWs sickening.

---

Thank you both. This is all since Putin put the butcher in command?

---

Alexander Dvornikov? He's been relieved of his position as of late May.

https://www.yahoo.com/video/general-dvornikov-no-longer-command-155200379.html

---

Wow. What a ****show

They do this to remove as much incentive as possible for Ukrainians to want to return to occupied territory.

The fewer Ukrainians, the easier it will be to maintain occupation and the more homes and infrastructure Russia destroys, the fewer Ukrainians they have to deal with. They want the land and resources, and also want the people but only the ones who would submit to Russian authority.

If they raze cities, yes it will be costly to rebuild, but they feel they can gradually do that and it possession of that land is wrath the cost.

It's really sad. I don't think I've seen a war with a strategy quite like this one in a long time.

First report of AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missiles. Usually they're air-launched but maybe not in Ukraine. Designed to home in on SAM radar. Interesting development.

ETA: Twitter link.

The Drive: Does Ukraine Now Have AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles?

🔥For three days, new anti-radar missiles of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine destroyed 17 air defense systems of the invaders!

AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti-Radar Missile) is a high-speed anti-radar missile.
Range: 150 km! #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWillWin #UkraineRussianWar pic.twitter.com/aMYOcbE5g5

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) August 8, 2022

Quote:

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Head of occupation authorities in parts Zaporizhzhia region signed a decree on referendum to join Russia

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/8-august-head-of-occupation-authorities-in-parts-zaporizhzhia

1/2
Sentinel-2 imagery of the 22nd Tank Reserve Center (В/ч 42713), at Buy - Kostroma Oblast, indicates that most equipment parked in the central parking areas of the base likely has been removed over past two months.

Imagery June 2nd and August 4th. pic.twitter.com/TlhRsyjDbY

— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) August 8, 2022

MouthBQ98 said:

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They do this to remove as much incentive as possible for Ukrainians to want to return to occupied territory.

The fewer Ukrainians, the easier it will be to maintain occupation and the more homes and infrastructure Russia destroys, the fewer Ukrainians they have to deal with. They want the land and resources, and also want the people but only the ones who would submit to Russian authority.

If they raze cities, yes it will be costly to rebuild, but they feel they can gradually do that and it possession of that land is wrath the cost.

It's really sad. I don't think I've seen a war with a strategy quite like this one in a long time.

---

I think of Stalingrad when they bomb the cities.

Quote:

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Explosions were reported in Uman as Ukrainian air defence shot down Russian cruise missiles

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/8-august-explosions-were-reported-in-uman-as-ukrainian-air

Question about occurrences like this: are these cruise missiles usually fired one or two at a time, indicating that the air defense ended the threat (excepting falling debris), or is this more like destroying one out of several missiles with the rest hitting targets? As I understand, air defense basically fires its own rocket to hit an incoming cruise missile.

Obviously there are other caveats, but I'm trying to make sure I understand it on a basic level.

I don't think there is any way to answer that. Depends on how many targets they want to hit and how many are available.

They have ships and subs that could fire dozens at a time. Also have land based launchers they could congregate as many as they want together.

I believe the practice is to hit as many targets as possible, from as many directions as possible all at once to overwhelm air defenses and minimize interceptions (in a perfect worlds with lots of targets and plenty of weapons).

But this is Russia we're talking about. They've depleted many of their high tech weapons at this point, Ukraine is hiding / concealing targets much better than than Russia. As well as Ukraine still has a functioning air defense system and Russia doesn't seem as capable of having reconnaissance behind Uke lines as the Ukes have behind Russian lines.

Damage from last night's attack.

🇺🇦💥Antonovsky bridge today after the night strike of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine. #Kherson.#UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWillWin #Ukrainian #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine️War #Ukrainians pic.twitter.com/E7ulgoR1qN

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) August 8, 2022

Waffledynamics said:

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Quote:

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Explosions were reported in Uman as Ukrainian air defence shot down Russian cruise missiles

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/8-august-explosions-were-reported-in-uman-as-ukrainian-air

Question about occurrences like this: are these cruise missiles usually fired one or two at a time, indicating that the air defense ended the threat (excepting falling debris), or is this more like destroying one out of several missiles with the rest hitting targets? As I understand, air defense basically fires its own rocket to hit an incoming cruise missile.

Obviously there are other caveats, but I'm trying to make sure I understand it on a basic level.

---

It depends on where they are coming from. The subs in the Black Sea that they have been using carry 8 Kalibr missiles each I believe, but I am not sure if they are in vertical launchers or if they are launched through the torpedo tubes. If they are launched through the tubes, they may only be able to launch two at a time. Also, with only 8 on board, they may be reluctant to salvo the whole lot in one mission.