Putin fears revolution would break out. He promised the Russian public he could keep it limited. Going to full mobilization effectively admits failure of the limited operation. The society is already failing.Eliminatus said:
After six months of carnage, I am a little shocked that Russia has not declared full war and ordered a full mobilization.
I think it is becoming commonly accepted that Russias fight in Afghanistan was the final straw that touched off the fall of the Soviet Union. That is still within living history. Do y'all think war has NOT been declared because of that? Or declaring war would actually help prevent a said occurrence? I honestly don't know. I just know as bad as Russia has prosecuted this as a whole, it can, and very well may, get worse.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Additionally, Russia was already suffering from a chronic labor shortage before the war. Full mobilization would effectively stop the economy.Agsuffering@bulaw said:Putin fears revolution would break out. He promised the Russian public he could keep it limited. Going to full mobilization effectively admits failure of the limited operation. The society is already failing.Eliminatus said:
After six months of carnage, I am a little shocked that Russia has not declared full war and ordered a full mobilization.
I think it is becoming commonly accepted that Russias fight in Afghanistan was the final straw that touched off the fall of the Soviet Union. That is still within living history. Do y'all think war has NOT been declared because of that? Or declaring war would actually help prevent a said occurrence? I honestly don't know. I just know as bad as Russia has prosecuted this as a whole, it can, and very well may, get worse.
Top Russian Hypersonic Scientist arrested to treason…
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/05/europe/russian-hypersonic-missile-scientist-arrest-treason-hnk-intl/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/05/europe/russian-hypersonic-missile-scientist-arrest-treason-hnk-intl/index.html
Suspected of collaborating with China.
Sounds like the Partisans got caught.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-august-russian-media-report-assassination-attempt-on-deputyQuote:
Russian media report assassination attempt on deputy head of occupation authorities in Nova Kakhovka Vitaliy Hur
Take with a grain of salt, but it could be true. LiveUAMap isn't calling it known propaganda at this time.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-august-governor-of-kursk-region-of-russia-claims-saboteurQuote:
Governor of Kursk region of Russia claims saboteur attack on military airfield in Kursk region foiled this morning
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-august-suspicious-activity-of-russian-troops-at-zaporizhzhiaQuote:
Suspicious activity of Russian troops at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, possibly moving explosives to power units
#Энергодар, Запорожская обл.: российские оккупанты используют АЭС в качестве стоянки военной техники и склада БК https://t.co/ZFJSAuWnsQ #warcrimes #всрф pic.twitter.com/YSAXXIuDxu
— Necro Mancer (@666_mancer) August 6, 2022
Not sure I believe they're dumb or suicidal enough to destroy the plant and cause a massive nuclear disaster on purpose.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-august-4th-unit-of-zaporizhzhia-npp-has-been-turned-offQuote:
4th unit of Zaporizhzhia NPP has been turned off the grid, due to damage of powerlines
Waffledynamics said:https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-august-suspicious-activity-of-russian-troops-at-zaporizhzhiaQuote:
Suspicious activity of Russian troops at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, possibly moving explosives to power units#Энергодар, Запорожская обл.: российские оккупанты используют АЭС в качестве стоянки военной техники и склада БК https://t.co/ZFJSAuWnsQ #warcrimes #всрф pic.twitter.com/YSAXXIuDxu
— Necro Mancer (@666_mancer) August 6, 2022
Not sure I believe they're dumb or suicidal enough to destroy the plant and cause a massive nuclear disaster on purpose.
Put enough explosives around sensitive things that any strike is too risky then park whatever you want protected next to it.
There are many direct links between civilian an military pilots as about half of US pilots are retired military. I would suspect in many other countries that percentage is higher due to the cost of entry into the civilian part of the career.GarryowenAg said:
I appreciate your continuous engagement in this thread, but I continue to question this guy's insights into the war. I'll admit, I've only watched a few of his videos, but how is an airline pilot so "in the know"?
I'm guessing he has old military friends that are still active and feeding him his info.
It appears the Russians are reinforcing the Russian 42nd Division at Kherson. This might be the case of reinforcing failure. The Ukrainians are conducting shaping operations to isolated and attrit the 42nd by destroying bridges, ammunition and supply depots, command centers, and rail. The division is trapped on the West side of Dnipro River. It is a major river. I am going to assume the Ukrainians will have a blocking force to prevent reinforcements when they attack the 42nd. It sure would be a nice statement if the 42nd was wiped out.
What is the latest on N Korea's offer to Russia?
map of ukraine - Bing images
What is the latest on N Korea's offer to Russia?
map of ukraine - Bing images
Another aid package being bundled up. WEAPONS
8 hours ago per LiveUAMap:
This is roughly 68 km Southeast from Mariupol.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-august-partisans-claimed-responsibility-for-explosion-atQuote:
Partisans claimed responsibility for explosion at police station in Berdiansk this morning
This is roughly 68 km Southeast from Mariupol.
74OA said:
Another aid package being bundled up. WEAPONS
I didn't realize that we had agreed to treating Ukes at Landstuhl in Germany. Big deal in my eyes and a needed boon for them. I must have missed that detail somewhere.
It will be very interesting to see how the Ukes adapt to the Russian build up in the South. Did they expect this - as in part of a bigger strategy? Can they destroy command/control and degrade supply enough to give them a chance to effectively contain and slowly attrit the Russian BTGs?
And could the Russian shift to the South allow them an opportunity to have a meaningful breakthrough in the East/Izium direction? We've heard "this battle or that" will be pivotal in this conflict. But unlike the earlier Eastern front engagements, this impending Southern axis clash does present some different dynamics:
A lot to unpack in my note, but I'm hoping for "that pivotal moment" in favor of the Ukes. And the South, with its importance to the overall economic prosperity of Ukraine, might provide that ray of light at the end of the tunnel.
Slava Ukraini!
And could the Russian shift to the South allow them an opportunity to have a meaningful breakthrough in the East/Izium direction? We've heard "this battle or that" will be pivotal in this conflict. But unlike the earlier Eastern front engagements, this impending Southern axis clash does present some different dynamics:
- Ukes have more precision/longer range weapons…HIMARS, M777, etc.
- Geography lends itself better to supply disruption and troop isolation.
- Overall standard of many Russian BTGs has been degraded, forcing them to integrate less experienced personnel and even more antiquated armor systems.
- Russian's limited ability to repair and refit when regional access/exit points are contested.
- Finally, I've read a few pieces indicating that there is a legitimate (shadow) resistance embedded in the Kherson and surrounding region. If true, this could definitely boost intel and sabotage opportunities.
A lot to unpack in my note, but I'm hoping for "that pivotal moment" in favor of the Ukes. And the South, with its importance to the overall economic prosperity of Ukraine, might provide that ray of light at the end of the tunnel.
Slava Ukraini!
Or cook it off. Blame it on Ukraine and use the disaster as a reason to fully withdrawal???AgLA06 said:Waffledynamics said:https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-august-suspicious-activity-of-russian-troops-at-zaporizhzhiaQuote:
Suspicious activity of Russian troops at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, possibly moving explosives to power units#Энергодар, Запорожская обл.: российские оккупанты используют АЭС в качестве стоянки военной техники и склада БК https://t.co/ZFJSAuWnsQ #warcrimes #всрф pic.twitter.com/YSAXXIuDxu
— Necro Mancer (@666_mancer) August 6, 2022
Not sure I believe they're dumb or suicidal enough to destroy the plant and cause a massive nuclear disaster on purpose.
Put enough explosives around sensitive things that any strike is too risky then park whatever you want protected next to it.
Does anyone else have the feeling with the right package and quantity of military hardware, weapons platforms, and munitions that Ukraine could blow the war wide open?
Red1 said:
Does anyone else have the feeling with the right package and quantity of military hardware, weapons platforms, and munitions that Ukraine could blow the war wide open?
I was thinking the same thing. Especially if they are all trapped in Kherson.
I will play the what if and my 3 cards are: Cruise missiles, multirole strike aircraft, and predator type drones.
Nice wrap-up of the current situation. Partisan activity escalating. UPDATE
"A Ukrainian attack will not look like the Russians': this rolling barrage that destroys everything in its path," Lange said. "Rather, it will also rely on partisans, on uprisings in the occupied cities, on mobile operations behind enemy lines."
"A Ukrainian attack will not look like the Russians': this rolling barrage that destroys everything in its path," Lange said. "Rather, it will also rely on partisans, on uprisings in the occupied cities, on mobile operations behind enemy lines."
Open link for full discussion. Edward Hunter Christie served in a senior civilian position in NATO.
1-8
— Edward Hunter Christie (@EHunterChristie) August 5, 2022
This is the reasoning used over at @amnesty, which reveals an inadequate understanding of the concomitant IHL principle of necessity.
If Ukraine followed AI's line, it would directly help the aggressor to win, itself a crime, and thus generating yet more crimes. https://t.co/OY9oOI5ApT
74OA said:
"A Ukrainian attack will not look like the Russians': this rolling barrage that destroys everything in its path," Lange said. "Rather, it will also rely on partisans, on uprisings in the occupied cities, on mobile operations behind enemy lines."
This goes back to Clausewitz' Trinity of Military Acumen, Rational Government, and Passion of the People. The Ukrainians want blood and rightfully so. The Russians will have to deal with a conventional military and guerrilla type fighters simultaneously.74OA said:
Nice wrap-up of the current situation. Partisan activity escalating. UPDATE
"A Ukrainian attack will not look like the Russians': this rolling barrage that destroys everything in its path," Lange said. "Rather, it will also rely on partisans, on uprisings in the occupied cities, on mobile operations behind enemy lines."
If so, the Orks will also drop all the bridges near Kherson and set up shop on the south bank for their artillery. Also if so, the Ukes should pivot east to the dam at Nova Kakhovka. Capturing the dam is the trophy.
2/2 This is a strategy of terror and scorched earth, which the #Russians are preparing for, before the counteroffensive of #Ukrainian forces in the south.#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukrainian #UkraineWillWin #UkraineRussianWar #Ukrainians #UkraineWar
— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) August 6, 2022
One of my favorite movies.benchmark said:74OA said:
"A Ukrainian attack will not look like the Russians': this rolling barrage that destroys everything in its path," Lange said. "Rather, it will also rely on partisans, on uprisings in the occupied cities, on mobile operations behind enemy lines."
Our Air Force has the capability of dropping bombs which spits out 40 smart cluster bombs which hunts and targets vehicles. That is a tremendous amount of firepower. They would obliterate Russian mechanized forces.JFABNRGR said:
I will play the what if and my 3 cards are: Cruise missiles, multirole strike aircraft, and predator type drones.
Today's SITREP.
I don't think he purports to know anything that is not readily available. Similar to Covid heat maps, there are maps out there that try to summarize the movements. He just presents that information along with a few other things he recently read about.GarryowenAg said:
I appreciate your continuous engagement in this thread, but I continue to question this guy's insights into the war. I'll admit, I've only watched a few of his videos, but how is an airline pilot so "in the know"?
The Speak the Truth guy likely spends more time searching the web, but I think both get to about the same place.
Speak the truth appears to still be fairly connected in the SF world.
Yeah, he keeps talking with his guests that were over in Ukraine about "the guy we both know". I assume that has to be some SF or ex-SF guy that is organizing the international groups working over there.AgLA06 said:
Speak the truth appears to still be fairly connected in the SF world.
AgLA06 said:
Speak the truth appears to still be fairly connected in the SF world.
He's also hired journalists embedded in units for upcoming content as well. His stuff is very good.
Three more Russian generals get the SACK.
Waffledynamics said:AgLA06 said:
Speak the truth appears to still be fairly connected in the SF world.
He's also hired journalists embedded in units for upcoming content as well. His stuff is very good.
I love him so much.
Also this.74OA said:
Three more Russian generals get the SACK.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 7 August 2022
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 7, 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/Q9m6pBivU7
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/CSsurnK3iR
The US military is significantly better than the Russian military. We have better trained service members, leadership, weapons, and weapons platforms. I don't know if Patton can even turn around the Russian military because they are often incapable of executing "normal" tasks that we take for granted.74OA said:
Three more Russian generals get the SACK.
- It is said the Russian centralized leadership often precludes quick actions on the battlefield. Another problem is the decision makers are near the front, so they become big fat targets. Ukraine has invested in its NCO Corps which makes the Ukrainians significantly more agile.
- In general Ukraine has a significant advantage with precision fires. The US doctrine of developing and fielding precision fires is significantly better in many respects to the Russian doctrine of massing imprecise fires.
- The Russian soldiers have low morale, are ill-trained, and have little experience. A 20-year-old Russian tank commander would be a driver in my tank. Tanking is not easy. Tankers need to know how to quickly apply contact drills, movement and formation techniques, coordinating with the other tanks, offensive, and defensive operations.
I will ramble about tanks because I was a Tank Platoon Leader.
When I was a Tank Platoon Leader, I studied the Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) until I had it memorized. The other tank commanders were E-6s and my Platoon Seargeant was an E-7. Needless to say they had a lot more experience than me, so I had to catch up. I will illustrate the beauty of tankers executing based the SOP. If we conducted a hasty defense the tank commanders knew to find suitable terrain for cover and concealment. Then I identified three Targe Reference Points in the engagement area that were distinguishable terrain features 1000 meters from us or further. This establishes the fire pattern for each tank by SOP. The beauty of the TRP system is it simplifies painting the picture of the battlefield. If I told the other tank commanders three T-72s 2000 meters TRP3, I had quickly created and communicated a common operating picture. This methodology is so simple, quick, and accurate that I have to say it is beautiful.
Illustrated below is the TRP methodology:
-------------TRP1--------------------------------------TRP2-------------------------------------------- TRP3
------------------ TANK1--------------------TANK2--------TANK3--------------------------TANK4
The fire plan for TANK1 starts firing at TRP1 and goes to the right.
The fire plan for TANK2 starts slightly right of TRP2 and moves left.
The fire plan for TANK3 starts slightly left of TRP2 and moves right.
The fire plan for TANK4 starts firing at TRP3 and moves left.
I illustrate this because perhaps some of you might be interested in tank tactics. The other reason is to illuminate a 20-year-old Russian tank commander is incapable of performing at this level, let alone in unison with the other tanks. The performance and quality of the American and Russian soldiers is like night and day. What the Russian soldiers possibly cannot accomplish, we could execute it in 5 minutes.
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