Europe continues to clean out its old Soviet stuff and donate it to Ukraine. Macedonia

The Fall Guy said:

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North Korea sending troops to Ukraine?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/world/europe/100000-north-korean-soldiers-could-be-sent-to-bolster-putins-forces-fighting-ukraine/news-story/1126782c8c5e6fe08a8ad2d9fa38dff0%3famp

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Well that will help them integrate their command and control and communication between forces.

Saber rattling for their Russian overlords.
They won't commit their own forces because that makes them subject to direct attack AND full sanctions. Allowing Russia to attack from their territory already justifies it arguably.

The Fall Guy said:

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North Korea sending troops to Ukraine?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/world/europe/100000-north-korean-soldiers-could-be-sent-to-bolster-putins-forces-fighting-ukraine/news-story/1126782c8c5e6fe08a8ad2d9fa38dff0%3famp

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They probably need the income, food and energy it could bring, or wipe them out too.

Quote:

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Russian militaries shelled the Zaporizhzhia NPP for the second time in the last few hours: three hits were recorded on the site of the station. The nitrogen-oxygen station and the combined auxiliary building were damaged

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/5-august-russian-militaries-shelled-the-zaporizhzhia-npp

The Fall Guy said:

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North Korea sending troops to Ukraine?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/world/europe/100000-north-korean-soldiers-could-be-sent-to-bolster-putins-forces-fighting-ukraine/news-story/1126782c8c5e6fe08a8ad2d9fa38dff0%3famp

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North Korea will send 100k troops to die in Ukraine in trade for stolen grain and goods.

So ****ed up!

sclaff said:

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Russian warship named in this report

Russian warship Vasily Bykov destroyed by ZSU near Sevastopol, this morning.
20 sailors missing. Harpoon missile probably was used.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/saeXautUgR

— Fuat (@lilygrutcher) August 5, 2022

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Wondering when we'll get some kind of confirmation on this.

sclaff said:

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Russian warship named in this report

Russian warship Vasily Bykov destroyed by ZSU near Sevastopol, this morning.
20 sailors missing. Harpoon missile probably was used.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/saeXautUgR

— Fuat (@lilygrutcher) August 5, 2022

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Destroyed by ZSU?

Our common enemy is evil and a reminder for any who have forgotten is in the video link below. Its not that great and a simple search should produce no shortage of orc actions on a sovereign peoples.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wh2wct/i_made_a_short_video_on_amnesty_internationals/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Logistics planning and training have been discussed ad nauseum, with all mostly contributing without conflict for several hundred pages now. It will come again due to its importance but no reason to argue over who is more righter when evil is our enemy.

Red1. As for intel being provided by US, this has been occurring since early on and not really publicized even discreetly until the sinking of the mosca when our global hawke went into the black sea turning off when nearing the AO and then not turning off while running BDA loops over the sink site. Not sure who authorized that but thought it was a big FU to russia.

Amnesty International can go eat a big ol' bag of dicks.

Ukrainian Armed Forces

The reports of the Russian ship on fire near Sevastopol are still unconfirmed. Some people on the Twitter threads saying the water color looks different from the water around that area.

On a more tactical note…

Every successful Uke obliteration of a Russian ammo site, appears to trigger them to retaliate with numerous obnoxious strikes on civilian targets. So the orcs lose a crapload of munitions, then respond by firing a crapload of munitions.

This math would seem to greatly favor the Uke's objectives of whittling down the Russian standoff arty capabilities. Some posted content appears to show signs of this happening…lower number of strikes etc.

If this trend continues, you would think the Russians would encounter some serious tactical setbacks. I'm definitely hoping for this. But the one thing I'm suspicious about…

Has Iran been backfilling the orcs via these numerous secretive cargo flights?

ABATTBQ11 said:

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sclaff said:

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Russian warship named in this report

Russian warship Vasily Bykov destroyed by ZSU near Sevastopol, this morning.
20 sailors missing. Harpoon missile probably was used.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/saeXautUgR

— Fuat (@lilygrutcher) August 5, 2022

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Wondering when we'll get some kind of confirmation on this.

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Does the Harpoon have that kind of range to reach Sevastopol?

#Russia has sent 25,000 troops to the south of #Ukraine. Kyiv admits they will try to encircle #Mykolaiv

The capture of the city is necessary if Moscow plans to capture Odesa. In addition, an offensive is necessary to make bridges over the Dnieper beyond the range of the HIMARS. pic.twitter.com/Txks9AUKxB

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 5, 2022

The Ukrainian military destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Berislav, #Kherson region. pic.twitter.com/SHfJUpeX40

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 5, 2022

Odesa to Sevastopol is 180 miles and the reported range of the Neptunes in 170 miles.

Ukes have got to take out RU train engines.

Blowing up ammo depots is good, but they've got to hurt the literal supply trains.

Ukraine is chipping away at Russia's gains in the Izyum direction. This is protecting Slovyansk more.

Bakhmut, an important crossroads city, is under threat. The Ukrainians need to push them back and hold that city.

I appreciate your continuous engagement in this thread, but I continue to question this guy's insights into the war. I'll admit, I've only watched a few of his videos, but how is an airline pilot so "in the know"?

Eliminatus said:

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After six months of carnage, I am a little shocked that Russia has not declared full war and ordered a full mobilization.

I think it is becoming commonly accepted that Russias fight in Afghanistan was the final straw that touched off the fall of the Soviet Union. That is still within living history. Do y'all think war has NOT been declared because of that? Or declaring war would actually help prevent a said occurrence? I honestly don't know. I just know as bad as Russia has prosecuted this as a whole, it can, and very well may, get worse.

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I've always thought Chernobyl was very significant too. Definitely a sign of serious issues with the Soviet system and a very serious blow to the regime's credibility.

Eliminatus said:

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After six months of carnage, I am a little shocked that Russia has not declared full war and ordered a full mobilization.

I think it is becoming commonly accepted that Russias fight in Afghanistan was the final straw that touched off the fall of the Soviet Union. That is still within living history. Do y'all think war has NOT been declared because of that? Or declaring war would actually help prevent a said occurrence? I honestly don't know. I just know as bad as Russia has prosecuted this as a whole, it can, and very well may, get worse.

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The real question is: can they even do that?

Russia has serious issues with general heath of their population. I think their average age of death is mid-50's. Which means the general population is...not healthy. Massive issues with AIDS and other issues, because their health sector has completely collapsed. And, if you listen to Zehein, the reason Putin started this whole mess is because Russia is on the verge of complete collapse. Declining demographics on top of a very sick population that cannot muster an army. That's on top of a collapse of their education system and everything else that's going wrong. Which makes sense that they're kidnapping the Ukraine population and sending them throughout the country simply to prop up the dying Russians.

We're witnessing the last throws of a nation. And as everyone starts to realize this, their entire massive border is going to weaken and invite invasion. The ONLY thing staving this off is the fact Russia is a nuclear power.

It's really starting to make more sense. Phyrric victory.

Eliminatus said:

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After six months of carnage, I am a little shocked that Russia has not declared full war and ordered a full mobilization.

I think it is becoming commonly accepted that Russias fight in Afghanistan was the final straw that touched off the fall of the Soviet Union. That is still within living history. Do y'all think war has NOT been declared because of that? Or declaring war would actually help prevent a said occurrence? I honestly don't know. I just know as bad as Russia has prosecuted this as a whole, it can, and very well may, get worse.

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If they can't perform on a special operation how are we supposed to expect them to perform on a full scale declaration of war? maybe thats what you meant in the last words of your last statement.
I know this is supposed to open up some magic box of resources but given their performance so far I am not seeing it. I think they are just about fully deployed to their current capabilities minus nukes and severe risk of loss (IE aircraft) (putin protection detail)

Also don't we do the same thing?
We haven't declared war since 1941 yet we deployed continuously for over 20 years in afghan/iraq/GWOT whatever we want to call it. Our own success, if any long term, is debatable but we certainly never incurred losses such as this and proved many times over we know how to fight a combined arms battle at every level.

FWIW I believe we fail at nation building and should just stick to destroying the enemy when threatened. (this is not meant to derail the thread and the whole subject itself would deserve its own and likely several hundred pages of heated debate) Maybe this group can start one after this war is over, I would enjoy much of your philosophy on this, but later, I am already too distracted from work/etc studying this one which should have been prevented.

Green2Maroon said:

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Eliminatus said:

---

After six months of carnage, I am a little shocked that Russia has not declared full war and ordered a full mobilization.

I think it is becoming commonly accepted that Russias fight in Afghanistan was the final straw that touched off the fall of the Soviet Union. That is still within living history. Do y'all think war has NOT been declared because of that? Or declaring war would actually help prevent a said occurrence? I honestly don't know. I just know as bad as Russia has prosecuted this as a whole, it can, and very well may, get worse.

---

I've always thought Chernobyl was very significant too. Definitely a sign of serious issues with the Soviet system and a very serious blow to the regime's credibility.

---

Aye. The one-two punch that cascaded into the downfall. In terms of absolute timeline though, the pullout out of Afghan was the last major step before the end.

Either way, Russia IS hurting on multiple levels and the current fight is absolutely stalemated. Even trying to look from Russian shoes, Ukraine has to be looking like a zero sum game and yet no overt actions are being taken at the national level that I can tell at least. My western mind has troubles grasping that. (maybe it shouldn't though after our own Afghan debacle...)

I am just not sure why full war and mobilization has not been declared. Anyone have insight to the pros and cons of this? I can think surface level stuff but my views err towards declaration so not seeing why Russia has not declared war yet to focus their recruiting and industry. Pride? Economics? Fear? I don't know.

Eliminatus said:

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Green2Maroon said:

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Eliminatus said:

---

After six months of carnage, I am a little shocked that Russia has not declared full war and ordered a full mobilization.

I think it is becoming commonly accepted that Russias fight in Afghanistan was the final straw that touched off the fall of the Soviet Union. That is still within living history. Do y'all think war has NOT been declared because of that? Or declaring war would actually help prevent a said occurrence? I honestly don't know. I just know as bad as Russia has prosecuted this as a whole, it can, and very well may, get worse.

---

I've always thought Chernobyl was very significant too. Definitely a sign of serious issues with the Soviet system and a very serious blow to the regime's credibility.

---

Aye. The one-two punch that cascaded into the downfall. In terms of absolute timeline though, the pullout out of Afghan was the last major step before the end.

Either way, Russia IS hurting on multiple levels and the current fight is absolutely stalemated. Even trying to look from Russian shoes, Ukraine has to be looking like a zero sum game and yet no overt actions are being taken at the national level that I can tell at least. My western mind has troubles grasping that. (maybe it shouldn't though after our own Afghan debacle...)

I am just not sure why full war and mobilization has not been declared. Anyone have insight to the pros and cons of this? I can think surface level stuff but my views err towards declaration so not seeing why Russia has not declared war yet to focus their recruiting and industry. Pride? Economics? Fear? I don't know.

---

I think they are victims of their own propaganda. They have spent so much time telling their population that they are winning (with talking heads on their nightly news discussing which country they should invade next), that it would now be a sign of failure to declare war and start a general mobilization. Also, that would have to include troops from areas closer to Moscow and St Petersburg, which would make it inevitable that their more educated and richer citizens would start to learn the truth of how the war is going when their sons start phoning home with the reality checks.

GarryowenAg said:

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I appreciate your continuous engagement in this thread, but I continue to question this guy's insights into the war. I'll admit, I've only watched a few of his videos, but how is an airline pilot so "in the know"?

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He knows people in the UAF and probably has other sources. His maps come from the Ukrainian government.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#7/49.396/34.973

15:39, Rob talks about a recent get by the Ukrainians. Apparently they captured some stuff, but also captured a group commander that was part of a detachment from the 140th Special Ops Underwater Division Unit of the Northern Fleet. Apparently, this is analogous to the Navy SEALs. This capture happened back on July 12th.

ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 5

Quote:

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August 5, 7:30pm ET

Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russia is using Iranian-provided drones in Ukraine. Advisor to the Ukrainian President's Office, Oleksiy Arestovych, stated on August 5 that Iran handed 46 drones over to Russia and that the Ukrainian government has already noted the use of these drones in combat in Ukraine. At least a portion of the provided drones are older-generation "Shahed 129" heavy strike drones, which Russian forces may seek to use to attack US-provided HIMARS in Ukraine. It is unclear whether the 46 drones represent all the drones that Tehran has agreed to send, or the number of Iranian drones that are currently operating in Ukraine.

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russian forces are using Iranian-provided drones in Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground assaults on settlements south of Bakhmut.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged heavy artillery fire in Pisky, suggesting that Russian forces are unlikely to have full control of Pisky despite Russian claims.
• Russian forces conducted several limited ground assaults to the north, northwest, and southwest of Donetsk City.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces accused each other of firing rounds near the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar, but ISW cannot independently determine which party is responsible for the incident.
• Russian forces have repeatedly used artillery systems deliberately positioned within the complex to fire on targets across the Dnipro River.
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance on Lozove, Kherson Oblast, likely targeting the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River.
• Russian federal subjects are forming new volunteer battalions in Omsk and Samara Oblasts.
• Russian occupation authorities are likely accelerating passportization and rubleization efforts and civilian data collection in occupied territories in preparation for the upcoming pseudo-referenda on the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory into Russia.
• The Kremlin is continuing to replace Ukrainian collaborators in Russian occupation administrations with Russian officials, likely to prepare for formal Russian governance of annexed areas.

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So. I mused over why we were deceived about the true strength of the Russian Military. I believe this is the case because everyone and their grandmother said the US was #1 and Russia #2. Being #2 implies they are pretty good at fighting wars. The quantitative analysis of the number of vehicles, weapons, weapons platforms, and the size of the army became the mantra of they are #2 and they are badass. I scanned a few articles and none illuminated a qualitative analysis of the Russian Military. They fail at doing the basic things our military can execute. The following narrative is par for the course:

Russia has recovered from its post-Soviet military slump, launching a slew of far-reaching modernization projects to revitalize its aging air force and navy. The fruits of those labors can be readily observed in 2021, with a new generation of Russian strategic and cruise missile submarines narrowing the qualitative gap with their U.S. counterparts. Russia's growing force of modernized corvettes and other small ships reflects Moscow's commitment to a coastal defense force. Meanwhile, Russia continues to hold a large quantitative edge over the United States in all land power categories other than armored vehicles. The airpower matchup is still somewhat lopsided in favor of the United States; as illustrated by its new Su-57 air superiority fighter, Russia is currently more interested in developing air-based counters to U.S. stealth penetration platforms than investing in similar capabilities.

Ranked for 2021: Top 5 Militaries On Planet Earth | The National Interest

Today's SITREP.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 6 August 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/ipwkuIN1lV

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/cyB1fVrATh

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 6, 2022