I believe a variable in the general incompetency of the Russian military is they have not fought a large war in years. Our generals have a lot more experience waging wars.

I read an article stating the Russian centralized leadership style poses a problem on the battlefield. There is some value to bureaucracies, but it can prevent initiative and agility. The Ukrainians have invested in the NCO Corps which is paying dividends.

I think we have greater competency because of the investment in training and doctrine. I'm not convinced that much of what we've done since 2003 is terribly relevant to a war like this.

GAC06 said:

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I think we have greater competency because of the investment in training and doctrine. I'm not convinced that much of what we've done since 2003 is terribly relevant to a war like this.

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Of course there is relevance. Division and Corps Commanders conduct significant planning and monitor execution. When we invaded Iraq in the second war our generals had to plan and execute. 240,000 US services members, equipment, vehicles, planes, and supplies don't come out of the thin air. It takes an extreme amount of planning with our Air Force, Navy, TRANSCOM, and coalition forces, and CENTCOM. Corps, Divisions, and Brigades conduct a tremendous amount of planning, coordination, and monitoring execution.

The Army Corps Commanders in Iraq and Afghanistan had tremendous responsibilities across the board to include kinetic operations, host nation coordination, logistics, personnel, basing, Joint operations and planning, tracking all the missions kinetic or non-kinetic. It's complex and detailed. Try feeding 100,000 soldiers a day.

You didn't read my post

Also OIF is almost 20 years ago.

GAC06 said:

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You didn't read my post

Also OIF is almost 20 years ago.

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Have you ever worked in a Division or Corps HQs? Sure the kinetic operations slowed down in Afghanistan and Iraq but the level of detailed planning was significant. Commanding 100,000 US military personnel with all the disparate missions involves a high level of planning. For example, rotating Combat Divisions in and out of the war zone is a major muscle move which is great experience for many commanders. Most likely the division will go to a draw yard to pick up equipment and vehicles. That is an important task that must be managed and is in line with the concept of prepositioned equipment and vehicles in various places in the world. Logistics for 100,000 is another big muscle move that will give valuable experience to the commanders. Our kinetic operations went down in both theaters, but the full spectrum of capabilities was on standby. This requires leadership at all the levels. We were not rocking and rolling with kinetic operations at the end, but our generals still got valuable experiences and could run circles around the Russian generals.

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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Interesting. At 2:00, he shows a very clear stoppage in artillery as Russian Wagner forces move towards Bakhmut.

Ukraine is gaining ground near Izyum. They took Dovhenke village. Russia is moving some forces back up to Kharkiv and also to Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Could we see a big Ukrainian push in the East soon?

He also mentions at 9:36 that Ukraine has not even received materiel from Lend Lease. The first shipments from that begin in September/October.

He also really seems to believe the strategy is to trap Russians north of the Dnipro River on the Kherson front.

Re Armenia vs Azerbaijan:

Short answer is that it is bad for Russia. Russia guaranteed the peace between both sides. Russia has an obligation to squash trouble between the 2. Russia is not in position to do that. Could erode trust from Russias allies in Eurasia.

Armenia is a Russian ally. However, current leadership has moved closer to the west. This is why Russia didn't help Armenia in the last war. Azerbaijan and Russia have friendly relations, but are not officially allies.

Russia was the one nation Armenia and Azerbaijan both trusted enough to broker an end to the last war.

Don't know the details, but would not be surprised if turkey pushed the Azeri leader to start another squabble. Turkey still hates the Armenians and resents Russian influence in Eurasia.

GAC06 said:

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You didn't read my post

Also OIF is almost 20 years ago.

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Fair enough.

UPDATE

More speculation that Ukraine is trying to lure troops across the Dnieper to defend Kherson to leave a weak middle in the Melitopol area. Of course rascists should be onto this from social media, too

Speculative 🧵: In recent weeks, most of the fighting in 🇺🇦 (and subsequent media attention) has focused on the Donbas and Kherson fronts. In between lies the fairly stagnant Zaporizhzhia front. Could this 'land bridge to Crimea' hold any potential for an offensive by 🇺🇦? 1/16 pic.twitter.com/L9FZbO9bI6

— Pax Lusitanica (@PaxLusitanica) June 22, 2022

Red1 said:

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GAC06 said:

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You didn't read my post

Also OIF is almost 20 years ago.

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Have you ever worked in a Division or Corps HQs? Sure the kinetic operations slowed down in Afghanistan and Iraq but the level of detailed planning was significant. Commanding 100,000 US military personnel with all the disparate missions involves a high level of planning. For example, rotating Combat Divisions in and out of the war zone is a major muscle move which is great experience for many commanders. Most likely the division will go to a draw yard to pick up equipment and vehicles. That is an important task that must be managed and is in line with the concept of prepositioned equipment and vehicles in various places in the world. Logistics for 100,000 is another big muscle move that will give valuable experience to the commanders. Our kinetic operations went down in both theaters, but the full spectrum of capabilities was on standby. This requires leadership at all the levels. We were not rocking and rolling with kinetic operations at the end, but our generals still got valuable experiences and could run circles around the Russian generals.

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100% spot on accurate (as someone who worked in the Pentagon from 2005-09)

Detailed combat sector by sector breakdown. Scroll through the slides for each. UPDATE

LMCane said:

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Red1 said:

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GAC06 said:

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You didn't read my post

Also OIF is almost 20 years ago.

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Have you ever worked in a Division or Corps HQs? Sure the kinetic operations slowed down in Afghanistan and Iraq but the level of detailed planning was significant. Commanding 100,000 US military personnel with all the disparate missions involves a high level of planning. For example, rotating Combat Divisions in and out of the war zone is a major muscle move which is great experience for many commanders. Most likely the division will go to a draw yard to pick up equipment and vehicles. That is an important task that must be managed and is in line with the concept of prepositioned equipment and vehicles in various places in the world. Logistics for 100,000 is another big muscle move that will give valuable experience to the commanders. Our kinetic operations went down in both theaters, but the full spectrum of capabilities was on standby. This requires leadership at all the levels. We were not rocking and rolling with kinetic operations at the end, but our generals still got valuable experiences and could run circles around the Russian generals.

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100% spot on accurate (as someone who worked in the Pentagon from 2005-09)

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I am sorry you had to work at the Pentagon. I think I would have gone AWOL before going to DC. This applies to recruiting command as well. lol May I ask what you did in the military?

All of that happens in normal training and overseas rotations. It's also been a while since we've had 100k deployed to Afg

Photos of the Russian Dmitry Rogachev Project 22160 patrol ship with a Tor-M2KM air defense system.https://t.co/QpzlgTZdX1 pic.twitter.com/yyqd55HS8y

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 5, 2022

Quote:

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Curfew declared in Mykolaiv for this weekend

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/5-august-curfew-declared-in-mykolaiv-for-this-weekend

74OA said:

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In the absence of facts I will make a strong assumption which in military thinking is facts that will be proven by future events. We are giving Ukraine valuable real time intelligence, probably prioritizing targets, and assistance in planning. The shaping operations will be cutting off logistics, preventing maneuver, hitting priority targets, facilitating attrition, preventing reinforcements, and massing forces. The Russians will fight conventional and guerrilla type forces which can be problematic. I have to believe this is what is in motion. The 42nd is a big, fat, and ripe target that is isolated currently.

sclaff said:

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More speculation that Ukraine is trying to lure troops across the Dnieper to defend Kherson to leave a weak middle in the Melitopol area. Of course rascists should be onto this from social media, too

Speculative 🧵: In recent weeks, most of the fighting in 🇺🇦 (and subsequent media attention) has focused on the Donbas and Kherson fronts. In between lies the fairly stagnant Zaporizhzhia front. Could this 'land bridge to Crimea' hold any potential for an offensive by 🇺🇦? 1/16 pic.twitter.com/L9FZbO9bI6

— Pax Lusitanica (@PaxLusitanica) June 22, 2022

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That post you linked is from June 22nd.

That being said, I wonder how effective a strategy that is in the age of social media and high tech information gathering. I'm no expert, but it seems like that is a strategy that would work better without everyone being connected so much. Then again, I suppose Russia still has to prepare for a situation from multiple directions as it is, which will spread their forces thinner.

Are we past the age of surprise, master stroke check mates? It just seems like it's hard to completely blindside an enemy in a rout.

So, here we are almost 6 months into this....in yall's opinion, is it realistic to assume that Russia will continue to be bogged down where they are, or are they going to be able to take Ukraine?

I'm no expert, but neither side seems currently able to make a decisive win. Ukraine is getting strengthened by Western aid and is punching well above their weight, while Russia is underperforming. I think we won't see anything big until Ukraine gets more of the lend-lease supplies and/or Russia declares war and starts actual mobilization. They are currently still calling it a Special Military Operation.

That being said, my non-expert opinion sees a stalemate and long war. I will be surprised if Russia fully or even mostly captures Ukraine. They have not shown the ability to dominate the skies or really do anything except use a lot of artillery and move troops into the rubble.

It seems very unlikely Russia will gain full control of Ukraine barring a major collapse. The question now is how much territory can Russia hold, how effective can Ukraine be at retaking territory, and how long can both sides keep up with the attrition, cost, and morale.

My worry is that right as Ukraine is poised to make a major move in the south against an orc force with depleted supplies, the orcs are going to reopen the Kharkiv front with a major offensive and the Belarussians will finally enter the war with a renewed push towards Kiev. That could force the Ukrainians to divert forces and equipment intended to help the push past Kherson to instead help defend the north. Hopefully that doesn't come to pass, but it is definitely a risk.

At a minimum, it seems that Belarus has been tasked/ bullied into at least appearing to threaten the Ukes on the northern border.

txags92 said:

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My worry is that right as Ukraine is poised to make a major move in the south against an orc force with depleted supplies, the orcs are going to reopen the Kharkiv front with a major offensive and the Belarussians will finally enter the war with a renewed push towards Kiev. That could force the Ukrainians to divert forces and equipment intended to help the push past Kherson to instead help defend the north. Hopefully that doesn't come to pass, but it is definitely a risk.

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They definitely want to act like that is going to happen, however the first time they spread themselves out like that, it didn't work out the best for them. Seeing as they are only having success by massing troops and artillery, I would question the success against a Ukraine that is increasingly mobilized, supplied, and hardened.

Waffledynamics said:

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txags92 said:

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My worry is that right as Ukraine is poised to make a major move in the south against an orc force with depleted supplies, the orcs are going to reopen the Kharkiv front with a major offensive and the Belarussians will finally enter the war with a renewed push towards Kiev. That could force the Ukrainians to divert forces and equipment intended to help the push past Kherson to instead help defend the north. Hopefully that doesn't come to pass, but it is definitely a risk.

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They definitely want to act like that is going to happen, however the first time they spread themselves out like that, it didn't work out the best for them. Seeing as they are only having success by massing troops and artillery, I would question the success against a Ukraine that is increasingly mobilized, supplied, and hardened.

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Agreed. They may not make much headway by doing it, but as a tool to blunt the ability of Ukraine to effectively counterattack, it may be all they have to forestall Ukraine from retaking the Kherson-Melitopol area and cutting off the rest of the Donbas forces from resupply through Crimea.

Waffledynamics said:

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I'm no expert, but neither side seems currently able to make a decisive win. Ukraine is getting strengthened by Western aid and is punching well above their weight, while Russia is underperforming. I think we won't see anything big until Ukraine gets more of the lend-lease supplies and/or Russia declares war and starts actual mobilization. They are currently still calling it a Special Military Operation.

That being said, my non-expert opinion sees a stalemate and long war. I will be surprised if Russia fully or even mostly captures Ukraine. They have not shown the ability to dominate the skies or really do anything except use a lot of artillery and move troops into the rubble.

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I doubt Russia actually goes that far. As I understand it, that is the nuclear option, but it would be extremely unpopular. First it would mean admitting defeat, and second it would start staying a lot of people who do not any to be drafted. Politically I'm not sure it can be done.

Waffledynamics said:

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txags92 said:

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My worry is that right as Ukraine is poised to make a major move in the south against an orc force with depleted supplies, the orcs are going to reopen the Kharkiv front with a major offensive and the Belarussians will finally enter the war with a renewed push towards Kiev. That could force the Ukrainians to divert forces and equipment intended to help the push past Kherson to instead help defend the north. Hopefully that doesn't come to pass, but it is definitely a risk.

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They definitely want to act like that is going to happen, however the first time they spread themselves out like that, it didn't work out the best for them. Seeing as they are only having success by massing troops and artillery, I would question the success against a Ukraine that is increasingly mobilized, supplied, and hardened.

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I am also curious if they are just a holding force to keep some UKR forces pinned north. According to Denis (not sure his sources) belarus has been sending quite a bit of their stocks of ammo to the russians. Seems like a bad idea to do that and then try an assault.

Waffledynamics said:

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sclaff said:

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More speculation that Ukraine is trying to lure troops across the Dnieper to defend Kherson to leave a weak middle in the Melitopol area. Of course rascists should be onto this from social media, too

Speculative 🧵: In recent weeks, most of the fighting in 🇺🇦 (and subsequent media attention) has focused on the Donbas and Kherson fronts. In between lies the fairly stagnant Zaporizhzhia front. Could this 'land bridge to Crimea' hold any potential for an offensive by 🇺🇦? 1/16 pic.twitter.com/L9FZbO9bI6

— Pax Lusitanica (@PaxLusitanica) June 22, 2022

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That post you linked is from June 22nd.

That being said, I wonder how effective a strategy that is in the age of social media and high tech information gathering. I'm no expert, but it seems like that is a strategy that would work better without everyone being connected so much. Then again, I suppose Russia still has to prepare for a situation from multiple directions as it is, which will spread their forces thinner.

Are we past the age of surprise, master stroke check mates? It just seems like it's hard to completely blindside an enemy in a rout.

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Sorry on context. It was Telenko referring to this option. DefMon brought it up a couple weeks, too

Call this thread "Ukraine's Tokmak Option" because if the railway cross roads in Tokmak is taken by Ukraine.

Then the overland railway link from Russia through Ukraine to Crimea is cut, leaving only the Kerch Straits bridge. 👇 https://t.co/2Ct8r3nnJs

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) August 5, 2022

North Korea sending troops to Ukraine?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/world/europe/100000-north-korean-soldiers-could-be-sent-to-bolster-putins-forces-fighting-ukraine/news-story/1126782c8c5e6fe08a8ad2d9fa38dff0%3famp

then there is this report

Russians keep concentrating forces near Tokmak, Melitopol, Enerhodar, currently about 12 BTGs.
It is reported they will make a distracting attack to draw Ukrainian forces from the Kherson frontline.

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) August 5, 2022

The Fall Guy said:

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North Korea sending troops to Ukraine?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/world/europe/100000-north-korean-soldiers-could-be-sent-to-bolster-putins-forces-fighting-ukraine/news-story/1126782c8c5e6fe08a8ad2d9fa38dff0%3famp

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I change my mind. Russia is scraping the bottom of the barrel and will lose imminently.

The Fall Guy said:

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North Korea sending troops to Ukraine?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news.com.au/world/europe/100000-north-korean-soldiers-could-be-sent-to-bolster-putins-forces-fighting-ukraine/news-story/1126782c8c5e6fe08a8ad2d9fa38dff0%3famp

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I think that's just Kim Jong trying to stay relevant. I don't think that will happen.

sclaff said:

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then there is this report

Russians keep concentrating forces near Tokmak, Melitopol, Enerhodar, currently about 12 BTGs.
It is reported they will make a distracting attack to draw Ukrainian forces from the Kherson frontline.

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) August 5, 2022

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Seems like a good opportunity for an artillery attack while they're concentrated there.