Russia has the M-03 highway on the way to Bakhmut more under control. They're really making a strong push for Bakhmut.

Waffledynamics said:

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benchmark said:

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Quick reminder what a few Rand Corp 'experts' were saying a month before the Russian invasion.

The West's Weapons Won't Make Any Difference to Ukraine

Quote:

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The Ukrainian military has been shaped to fight the conflict in the Donbass and thus poses little deterrent threat to Russia; provision of U.S. weapons can do nothing to change that. If Moscow is willing to launch a major war, invading the second-largest country in Europe with a population of over 40 million, all while absorbing tremendous economic punishment from the West, then it is unlikely to be deterred by whatever U.S. military assistance can be delivered in the coming weeks.

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Quote:

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In normal times, there are many good reasons for the United States to provide military support to Ukraine. But these are not normal times. Military assistance now will at best be marginal in affecting the outcome of the crisis. It might be morally justified to help a U.S. partner at risk of aggression. But given the scale of the potential threat to Ukraine and its forces, the most effective way Washington can help is to work on finding a diplomatic solution.

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Keep in mind many of these people also expected Ukraine to fold like a cheap lawn chair and for Kyiv to fall in a couple of days.

Take it with a grain of salt. I'd say Ukraine is doing much better with Western help than without.

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Yep, hindsight is always 20-20. The Ukrainians get a vote in all this since they're putting their lives and their country on the line, and they most definitively want to fight for their independence from Russia.

benchmark said:

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Quick reminder what a few Rand Corp 'experts' were saying a month before the Russian invasion.

The West's Weapons Won't Make Any Difference to Ukraine

Quote:

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The Ukrainian military has been shaped to fight the conflict in the Donbass and thus poses little deterrent threat to Russia; provision of U.S. weapons can do nothing to change that. If Moscow is willing to launch a major war, invading the second-largest country in Europe with a population of over 40 million, all while absorbing tremendous economic punishment from the West, then it is unlikely to be deterred by whatever U.S. military assistance can be delivered in the coming weeks.

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Quote:

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In normal times, there are many good reasons for the United States to provide military support to Ukraine. But these are not normal times. Military assistance now will at best be marginal in affecting the outcome of the crisis. It might be morally justified to help a U.S. partner at risk of aggression. But given the scale of the potential threat to Ukraine and its forces, the most effective way Washington can help is to work on finding a diplomatic solution.

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I wonder how much that analysis by Rand was driven by intelligence intercepts of what orc advisors were telling Putin about their moles in Ukraine and how the Ukrainians wanted to be Russian. If Putin's advisors were telling him that the Ukrainian leadership was riddled with moles and people that were working with FSB, I suspect our intel community assumed it was mostly true and formed their opinions accordingly. When Kiev did not fall in the first week as expected, I bet every intelligence agency in the world was scrambling to figure out what the real situation was. Probably explains at least in part why we were so slow to start committing significantly useful weapons beyond Manpads and Anti-tank missiles.

The other piece re Rand is that they also overweight the Uke performance in 2014. Very few countries in the world have made such a drastic improvement in less than a decade without considerable outside involvement in terms of weapons, training, etc.

Yes the significant flow of AT weapons helped but that's not all. It IS surprising that Uke performance, morale, etc. Is so different from 8 years ago.

aezmvp said:

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The other piece re Rand is that they also overweight the Uke performance in 2014. Very few countries in the world have made such a drastic improvement in less than a decade without considerable outside involvement in terms of weapons, training, etc.

Yes the significant flow of AT weapons helped but that's not all. It IS surprising that Uke performance, morale, etc. Is so different from 8 years ago.

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......and plenty of other reputable organizations like RAND (and the CIA) also completely misjudged the Russian military's capabilities. Ukraine has hugely over-performed and Russia has hugely under-performed.

74OA said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Keep in mind many of these people also expected Ukraine to fold like a cheap lawn chair and for Kyiv to fall in a couple of days.

Take it with a grain of salt. I'd say Ukraine is doing much better with Western help than without.

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Yep, hindsight is always 20-20. The Ukrainians get a vote in all this since they're putting their lives and their country on the line, and they most definitively want to fight for their independence from Russia.

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Our 20/20 mistake was failing to develop a contingency plan. We should have started training Ukes and staging HIMARS and M777's in Poland/Romania last Jan/Feb As a result, it cost us 4 valuable months to deliver these systems.

benchmark said:

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74OA said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Keep in mind many of these people also expected Ukraine to fold like a cheap lawn chair and for Kyiv to fall in a couple of days.

Take it with a grain of salt. I'd say Ukraine is doing much better with Western help than without.

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Yep, hindsight is always 20-20. The Ukrainians get a vote in all this since they're putting their lives and their country on the line, and they most definitively want to fight for their independence from Russia.

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Our 20/20 mistake was failing to develop a contingency plan. We should have started training Ukes and staging HIMARS and M777's in Poland/Romania last Jan/Feb As a result, it cost us 4 valuable months to deliver these systems.

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We'd been intensively training the Ukrainians since immediately after Crimea in 2014 and had sent several billion dollars in military aid thru 2021. In addition to Ukraine's fighting spirit, that training and aid was the difference in it being able to repel Russia's initial assault on Kiev.

Only Biden and his immediate circle of national security advisors believed Russia would actually invade so no European nation would have agreed to staging heavy weapons for Ukraine on their soil. Recall that right up to the last day, Putin and his government were laughing at suggestions Russia intended to invade and our European allies were calling us "alarmist" for saying otherwise. 20-20 again.

It also wouldn't hurt to use the Defense Production Act to get GD, Northop Grumman, Textron and Raytheon to start producing GMLRS rockets to augment Lockheed Martin's capacity. The Palletized Field Artillery Launchers (PFAL) should be a multiple award IDIQ rather than to a single prime contractor.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1553869495369859075.html

- The world thought the big bad bear would use its mass to crush Ukraine.
- It was surprising Russians would be so poor at tactics and operational planning.
- I did not foresee a smaller force to include guerilla type fighters using Javelins, Stingers, and Drones to beat Russian advances. This is revolutionary.
- The level of commitment from the US and other countries to aid Ukraine is significant. The logistics footprint must be huge and complex to keep Ukraine in the war.

There are so many variables that linear thinking and predicting future developments is challenging. This is a war of attrition. Like other armies in the past, the Russians foolishly believed the war would be won quickly and are now paying for their mistake.

⚡️UK Intelligence: Ukrainian strike damages rail connection between Kherson and Crimea.

Russian forces are likely to repair the connection within the next few days but the rail link will remain a vulnerability, U.K.'s Ministry of Defense reported on Aug. 3. pic.twitter.com/AMNB5yg2BT

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 3, 2022

Red1 said:

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- The world thought the big bad bear would use its mass to crush Ukraine.
- It was surprising Russians would be so poor at tactics and operational planning.
- I did not foresee a smaller force to include guerilla type fighters using Javelins, Stingers, and Drones to beat Russian advances. This is revolutionary.
- The level of commitment from the US and other countries to aid Ukraine is significant. The logistics footprint must be huge and complex to keep Ukraine in the war.

There are so many variables that linear thinking and predicting future developments is challenging. This is a war of attrition. Like other armies in the past, the Russians foolishly believed the war would be won quickly and are now paying for their mistake.

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The Russians may have not accomplished their initial objectives quickly, but they have already conquered large swaths of eastern and southern Ukraine, are on the eve of annexing these territories, and the Ukrainians have been futile in any attempts to take back the territory. I wouldn't paint a picture of their foray into Ukraine as the failure you have.

The only time Ukraine has seen success in this war is when Russia pulled itself out of territories it had taken.

Ukraine may take back its territory at some point down the road. However I don't see that happening in the near future as things currently stand. Ukraine will have to win a Vietnam War type struggle that would take many many years

rgag12 said:

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Red1 said:

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- The world thought the big bad bear would use its mass to crush Ukraine.
- It was surprising Russians would be so poor at tactics and operational planning.
- I did not foresee a smaller force to include guerilla type fighters using Javelins, Stingers, and Drones to beat Russian advances. This is revolutionary.
- The level of commitment from the US and other countries to aid Ukraine is significant. The logistics footprint must be huge and complex to keep Ukraine in the war.

There are so many variables that linear thinking and predicting future developments is challenging. This is a war of attrition. Like other armies in the past, the Russians foolishly believed the war would be won quickly and are now paying for their mistake.

---

The Russians may have not accomplished their initial objectives quickly, but they have already conquered large swaths of eastern and southern Ukraine, are on the eve of annexing these territories, and the Ukrainians have been futile in any attempts to take back the territory. I wouldn't paint a picture of their foray into Ukraine as the failure you have.

The only time Ukraine has seen success in this war is when Russia pulled itself out of territories it had taken.

Ukraine may take back its territory at some point down the road. However I don't see that happening in the near future as things currently stand. Ukraine will have to win a Vietnam War type struggle that would take many many years

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If the analogy of choice is Vietnam and the Ukrainians are cast as the NVA then it's more like Vietnam in 1974 after Nixon's resignation than 1966 when the massive advantage of their adversary in troops and firepower was still growing.

At the rate of current casualties and destruction of equipment, Russia will have fed more troops and materiel into the meat grinder in one year in Ukraine than the US did in a decade in Vietnam. The also did it from a far smaller population and an inventory of war materiel that is not the cutting edge of technology.

The main difference here to a Vietnam or even Russia in Afghanistan analogy is the leader of Russia is a dictator with what appears to have total one-man control. Doesn't have to care about elections. There isn't even the checks and balances of power among multiple men that the Soviet Politburo had.

It is just 1 guy making the decisions over there and since he is a total a-hole and doesn't seem to really care how much damage his citizens absorb, it is an existential conflict for him, then this thing is going to be a long long long road unless the democratically elections West eventually cracks and loses their resolve paying high gas prices, pushing Ukraine to concessions ( which is presumably what Putin is probably counting on to happen sooner or later).

Your assessment assumes there is no point at which Putin's grip on power fails. There is a point at which even Russians stop following orders on a large scale. I believe that we are closer to that point than we are to the West losing its resolve. Regardless of which side breaks first, it will happen before winter is over. If heat is going to be in short supply in Germany, it will be far worse in eastern Ukraine for both the few civilians left and especially for the soldiers.

Fall should wetter and again limit field operations. This will confine attacks to largely roads again and make defense easier.

Winter will be difficult all around. This might help Ukraine if they have continued access to better western equipment and supplies for winter operations. The civilians may suffer considerably, however, in contested areas.

The logistics battle will be key. If Ukraine can keep interdicting logistics, the Russian front will weaken and a major sustained break through attack might collapse morale and the command structure in a large area, instead of fighting a frontal attrition battle.

Mechanized forces are needed to do that, however.

⚡️ IAEA: Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant 'out of control.'

Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that "seven indispensable pillars of nuclear safety and security are being violated" at the Zaporizhzhia plant.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 3, 2022

Sereda, Belgorod Oblast, Russia
Column destroyed in tree line around 50.24617, 36.65248@GeoConfirmed @DefMon3 pic.twitter.com/3IO6JbOyWJ

— Paulius Zaleckas (@PauliusZaleckas) August 3, 2022

Waffledynamics said:

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⚡️ IAEA: Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant 'out of control.'

Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that "seven indispensable pillars of nuclear safety and security are being violated" at the Zaporizhzhia plant.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 3, 2022

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Out of control means what, exactly?

Could mean many things, but most likely it means that it is not being operated according to its standard operating protocols and practices by trained personnel and with appropriate safety precautions observed.

That could result in reckless or risky activity at the reactor.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Could mean many things, but most likely it means that it is not being operated according to its standard operating protocols and practices by trained personnel and with appropriate safety precautions observed.

That could result in reckless or risky activity at the reactor.

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To me out of control suggests a runaway nuclear reaction in progress. Hope you are correct that the IAEA is proactively expressing concern.

Probably due to the Russians not allowing workers at the plant or workers not wanting to come to the plant since Russia has weapon systems scattered throughout it making it a prime target. Can't help but wonder if Russia is saying this to get some people from the west to come help so they can take hostages

aggiehawg said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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⚡️ IAEA: Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant 'out of control.'

Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that "seven indispensable pillars of nuclear safety and security are being violated" at the Zaporizhzhia plant.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 3, 2022

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Out of control means what, exactly?

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I'm guessing it means "seven indispensable pillars of nuclear safety and security are being violated" at the Zaporizhzhia plant.

Quote:

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I'm guessing it means "seven indispensable pillars of nuclear safety and security are being violated" at the Zaporizhzhia plant.

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Can't be too "indispensable" if it hasn't blown up yet. Words matter.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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I'm guessing it means "seven indispensable pillars of nuclear safety and security are being violated" at the Zaporizhzhia plant.

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Can't be too "indispensable" if it hasn't blown up yet. Words matter.

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All it is going to take is some orc digging a foxhole or latrine in the wrong spot and cutting the communications lines that allow the control room to operate the reactor.

I suspect it really just means that the IAEA has no idea what's happening there and/or that they are not able to monitor or control it. It might mean that the IAEA is not getting the proper TPS Reports with the new cover sheets.

rgag12 said:

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Red1 said:

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- The world thought the big bad bear would use its mass to crush Ukraine.
- It was surprising Russians would be so poor at tactics and operational planning.
- I did not foresee a smaller force to include guerilla type fighters using Javelins, Stingers, and Drones to beat Russian advances. This is revolutionary.
- The level of commitment from the US and other countries to aid Ukraine is significant. The logistics footprint must be huge and complex to keep Ukraine in the war.

There are so many variables that linear thinking and predicting future developments is challenging. This is a war of attrition. Like other armies in the past, the Russians foolishly believed the war would be won quickly and are now paying for their mistake.

---

The Russians may have not accomplished their initial objectives quickly, but they have already conquered large swaths of eastern and southern Ukraine, are on the eve of annexing these territories, and the Ukrainians have been futile in any attempts to take back the territory. I wouldn't paint a picture of their foray into Ukraine as the failure you have.

The only time Ukraine has seen success in this war is when Russia pulled itself out of territories it had taken.

Ukraine may take back its territory at some point down the road. However I don't see that happening in the near future as things currently stand. Ukraine will have to win a Vietnam War type struggle that would take many many years

---

Only time will tell the future. The strength of the Russians is their ability to mass forces, but they are finding the resistance challenging and the Ukrainians are counterattacking in some areas. The Russians are also facing attrition such as their troop strength. Ukraine is conducting shaping operations to destroy Russian Supply, Ammo Depot's, and Command Centers. There is a concept in war. When a military loses a key asset the war is over. It means they will lose.

I never said the Russian invasion was a failure. I said the Russians expected a quick victory. However, it was a failure in respect to Russia's original strategic goal of invading and defeating the whole country of Ukraine. In the battle of the Coral Sea in WWII the US and Japanese fleets fought a tactical draw, but it was a strategic victory for the US because it stopped further Japanese encroachment North of Australia.

Ulysses90 said:

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Your assessment assumes there is no point at which Putin's grip on power fails. There is a point at which even Russians stop following orders on a large scale. I believe that we are closer to that point than we are to the West losing its resolve. Regardless of which side breaks first, it will happen before winter is over. If heat is going to be in short supply in Germany, it will be far worse in eastern Ukraine for both the few civilians left and especially for the soldiers.

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Your post reminds me of Carl Von Clausewitz' Trinity of War. He surmised there exists three prominent components of war: Military Acumen, The Government, and the Passion of the People. There is interplay as well. The Vietnam War is a great example of the interplay of the three components and influences they have in respect to the war.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Fall should wetter and again limit field operations. This will confine attacks to largely roads again and make defense easier.

Winter will be difficult all around. This might help Ukraine if they have continued access to better western equipment and supplies for winter operations. The civilians may suffer considerably, however, in contested areas.

The logistics battle will be key. If Ukraine can keep interdicting logistics, the Russian front will weaken and a major sustained break through attack might collapse morale and the command structure in a large area, instead of fighting a frontal attrition battle.

Mechanized forces are needed to do that, however.

---

Agreed.

I also believe that Winter's impact may be exponentially more challenging to the orcs than expected. The Uke's ongoing campaign of destroying ammo sites will only continue to force Russia to relocate those munitions further and further back from the front line.

If resupply times are increasing now in specific areas, imagine what happens when all transit corridors are sharply limited to a few paved roadways. Easier to attack, delays will intensify and hopefully fracture orc capability and moral.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/wfhnis/russia_blows_up_its_ammunition_while_trying_to/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

It won't make a difference

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Fall should wetter and again limit field operations. This will confine attacks to largely roads again and make defense easier.

Winter will be difficult all around. This might help Ukraine if they have continued access to better western equipment and supplies for winter operations. The civilians may suffer considerably, however, in contested areas.

The logistics battle will be key. If Ukraine can keep interdicting logistics, the Russian front will weaken and a major sustained break through attack might collapse morale and the command structure in a large area, instead of fighting a frontal attrition battle.

Mechanized forces are needed to do that, however.

---

Agreed.

I also believe that Winter's impact may be exponentially more challenging to the orcs than expected. The Uke's ongoing campaign of destroying ammo sites will only continue to force Russia to relocate those munitions further and further back from the front line.

If resupply times are increasing now in specific areas, imagine what happens when all transit corridors are sharply limited to a few paved roadways. Easier to attack, delays will intensify and hopefully fracture orc capability and moral.

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orc resupply train supposedly hit. Massive secondary's including rockets and incendiaries.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wfgh55/seems_himars_hit_a_train_in_kherson_oblast/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Kherson bridge supposedly hit again. Both attacks reported to be HIMARS.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wfj3t1/ukraine_minutes_ago_another_gmlrs_barrage_lands/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Disruption of supply due to HIMARS may force orcs to fight like UKR, the question is will they have the resolve to do so as an attacking force and not a defending of home sovereignty like UKR does.

Orcs are approaching losses of 1000 main battle tanks. They are hardly using any air assets after losing 38 fixed wing, 49 rotary wing, and now up to 102 unmanned AC. They continue to conduct terroristic type attacks which only strengthen international support for UKR and have yet to work on cutting any major UKR supply lines entering from the west like rail. They may keep some of their 2014 territory but I do not believe they will be able to keep any new ground. russia is going to russia and **** them to hell for it.

Russia-Ukraine talk starts at 15:10, in case the timestamped link below doesn't work.

• Russia has lost Bohorodychne and has moved back across the Siverski Donets river. They are also withdrawing from Dolnya and Dovhen'ke.
• More and more Russian troops are being sent from the Izyum region in the East to the Kherson region in the South.
• Russia has lost a chunk of ground in the direction of Polohy in the Southeastern part of the country.

The fact that Russia can mass so many troops and still basically accomplish nothing for long periods of time is interesting.

JFABNRGR said:

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Disruption of supply due to HIMARS may force orcs to fight like UKR, the question is will they have the resolve to do so as an attacking force and not a defending of home sovereignty like UKR does.

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Russians can't fight like Ukraine. They don't have access to a $1T in multi-spectral national assets orbiting overhead.