***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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7:50a, 7/30/22
AG
Doesn't appear to have damaged the structural girders. Looks repairable..

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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to benchmark • 10:28a, 7/30/22
AG
Repairable? Probably. Anything can be fixed. Soon? Probably not.
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74OA
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In reply to benchmark • 10:37a, 7/30/22
AG
benchmark said:
Doesn't appear to have damaged the structural girders. Looks repairable..

Ukraine doesn't need to cut off Russian resupply, just make it late to need and of insufficient volume to support high-firepower ops.

So, if Ukraine can repeatedly damage bridges and other LOCs just enough to keep them impassable, but without destroying them, it's win-win as they then strangle Russian logistics without further gutting their own national infrastructure.
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AgLA06
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 10:38a, 7/30/22
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
Repairable? Probably. Anything can be fixed. Soon? Probably not.


It will be interesting to see. Russia claims their railroad battalions exist for this very situation. Based on their execution of everything else, I'm skeptical.
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txags92
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In reply to AgLA06 • 11:13a, 7/30/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
Repairable? Probably. Anything can be fixed. Soon? Probably not.


It will be interesting to see. Russia claims their railroad battalions exist for this very situation. Based on their execution of everything else, I'm skeptical.
Hope the Ukes wait for the repair battalion to show up, then hit it again.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to 74OA • 11:29a, 7/30/22
AG
74OA said:
benchmark said:
Doesn't appear to have damaged the structural girders. Looks repairable..

Ukraine doesn't need to cut off Russian resupply, just make it late to need and of insufficient volume to support high-firepower ops.

So, if Ukraine can repeatedly damage bridges and other LOCs just enough to keep them impassable, but without destroying them, it's win-win as they then strangle Russian logistics without further gutting their own national infrastructure.
And without making their own movement across the river more difficult.
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knj2417
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 11:54a, 7/30/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
74OA said:
benchmark said:
Doesn't appear to have damaged the structural girders. Looks repairable..

Ukraine doesn't need to cut off Russian resupply, just make it late to need and of insufficient volume to support high-firepower ops.

So, if Ukraine can repeatedly damage bridges and other LOCs just enough to keep them impassable, but without destroying them, it's win-win as they then strangle Russian logistics without further gutting their own national infrastructure.
And without making their own movement across the river more difficult.


Good point - but what stops Russia from doing the same thing when Uke's take back Kherson? Could end up being a back and forth
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TRM
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In reply to knj2417 • 11:57a, 7/30/22
AG
knj2417 said:
Waffledynamics said:
74OA said:
benchmark said:
Doesn't appear to have damaged the structural girders. Looks repairable..

Ukraine doesn't need to cut off Russian resupply, just make it late to need and of insufficient volume to support high-firepower ops.

So, if Ukraine can repeatedly damage bridges and other LOCs just enough to keep them impassable, but without destroying them, it's win-win as they then strangle Russian logistics without further gutting their own national infrastructure.
And without making their own movement across the river more difficult.


Good point - but what stops Russia from doing the same thing when Uke's take back Kherson? Could end up being a back and forth
Lack of munitions since Ukraine has been targeting Russian ammo/supply depots.
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74OA
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In reply to knj2417 • 12:06p, 7/30/22
AG
knj2417 said:
Waffledynamics said:
74OA said:
benchmark said:
Doesn't appear to have damaged the structural girders. Looks repairable..

Ukraine doesn't need to cut off Russian resupply, just make it late to need and of insufficient volume to support high-firepower ops.

So, if Ukraine can repeatedly damage bridges and other LOCs just enough to keep them impassable, but without destroying them, it's win-win as they then strangle Russian logistics without further gutting their own national infrastructure.
And without making their own movement across the river more difficult.


Good point - but what stops Russia from doing the same thing when Uke's take back Kherson? Could end up being a back and forth
Always that potential, but Russia's operational reliance on high firepower volume rather than maneuver makes it more dependent than is Ukraine on continuously intact resupply LOCs.

Additionally, Russian forces are compressed into narrow strips of Ukraine. As Ukraine presses forward, particularly in the south, more Russian LOCs come into MLRS/HIMARS range while more Ukrainian LOCs move out of effective artillery range.
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GAC06
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In reply to knj2417 • 12:11p, 7/30/22
AG
knj2417 said:
Waffledynamics said:
74OA said:
benchmark said:
Doesn't appear to have damaged the structural girders. Looks repairable..

Ukraine doesn't need to cut off Russian resupply, just make it late to need and of insufficient volume to support high-firepower ops.

So, if Ukraine can repeatedly damage bridges and other LOCs just enough to keep them impassable, but without destroying them, it's win-win as they then strangle Russian logistics without further gutting their own national infrastructure.
And without making their own movement across the river more difficult.


Good point - but what stops Russia from doing the same thing when Uke's take back Kherson? Could end up being a back and forth


Russia's missiles aren't as accurate as ours. Hitting that rail bridge would be challenging for them. They do have more air assets though
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to GAC06 • 12:24p, 7/30/22
AG
GAC06 said:
knj2417 said:
Waffledynamics said:
74OA said:
benchmark said:
Doesn't appear to have damaged the structural girders. Looks repairable..

Ukraine doesn't need to cut off Russian resupply, just make it late to need and of insufficient volume to support high-firepower ops.

So, if Ukraine can repeatedly damage bridges and other LOCs just enough to keep them impassable, but without destroying them, it's win-win as they then strangle Russian logistics without further gutting their own national infrastructure.
And without making their own movement across the river more difficult.


Good point - but what stops Russia from doing the same thing when Uke's take back Kherson? Could end up being a back and forth


Russia's missiles aren't as accurate as ours. Hitting that rail bridge would be challenging for them. They do have more air assets though
Taking Kherson sets the Ukes up to extend the targeting range to light up Crimean airfields, ammo dumps and possibly Sevastopol. I don't think they will hunker down and wait for Russia to stage a retake of the territory. It will continue to be a HIMAR/M270 hell zone for the orcs.
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In reply to GAC06 • 12:35p, 7/30/22
AG
GAC06 said:
Russia's missiles aren't as accurate as ours. Hitting that rail bridge would be challenging for them. They do have more air assets though
Russia will likely blow the bridge if Kherson falls or if the Ukes threaten capture. Until then, the Ukes can deny access with another strike if needed.
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74OA
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3:22p, 7/30/22
AG
Today's SITREP.

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Waffledynamics
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3:38p, 7/30/22
AG
Big video.



Some highlights:

  • Belarus still acts like they want to to get in on it.
  • Russia has amassed troops near Kharkiv for another push
  • Ukraine took a little more territory back near Izyum
  • Lots and lots of shelling happening
  • Russia is throwing a lot of their forces over to the Kherson region. It is expected that they will start an offensive against the Ukrainians there soon. Speculation is that they're more than doubling the amount of troops there (from ~12,000 to ~25,000)
  • Russia built a heavier pontoon bridge in Darivka that can carry heavier equipment
  • Germany will give Ukraine engineering tanks that can build heavy bridges
  • Some of the German Panzerhaubitze 2000 tanks were lemons, but Germany is opening a maintenance facility near the border to fix them

I have some huge questions about the Russian reinforcements going to Kherson. How will they adequately supply those men? What would the armor situation be like with degraded ability to get heavy equipment over the river? Have they fixed some glaring logistical issues? Will they attack Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih, or both? I see a lot of dead Russians in the future if they try that because those towns are massively fortified.

There has to be something I'm missing that gives Russia some confidence in this.
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Waffledynamics
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4:02p, 7/30/22
AG
Quote:
President Zelensky asks civilians from Donetsk region to evacuate
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/30-july-president-zelensky-asks-civilians-from-donetsk-region

Additional source:

Quote:
Ukraine is starting a mandatory evacuation from the controlled areas of the Donetsk region due to prolonged hostilities and the lack of an opportunity to provide heating for residential buildings in the winter period. The head of the Ministry of Reintegration, Iryna Vereshchuk , said this on the air of the telethon.

On July 29, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to create a headquarters for the evacuation of residents of the Donetsk region.

According to Vereshchuk, this happened after receiving a request from the head of the Donetsk regional administrative center, Pavlo Kyrylenko, to start the mandatory evacuation of residents of the region.
https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/news/ukraina-nachinaet-obyazatelnuyu-evakuatsiyu-s-podkontrolnyh-rayonov-donbassa
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Red1
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4:03p, 7/30/22
The Russians are promising outlandish sums of money to new recruits who will get very little training. This tells me:

- The Russian Army is experiencing serious attrition to its soldiers.
- Inexperienced soldiers are easier to kill if they are forced to frontline units.

The advent of the P-51 in Europe was the bane to the Luftwaffe in WWII. In due time practically all the experienced German pilots were shot down. Their replacements had little experience and were killed rather easily. This is an example of attrition and the ramifications of it. The Russians will be fielding inexperienced soldiers who are in it mostly for the money. I think many of them will learn they were mistaken.
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74OA
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5:24p, 7/30/22
AG
Updates:
DNIEPER[url=https://www.dw.com/en/dnieper-battle-recalls-a-turning-point-in-world-war-ii/a-62659840][/url]
DONETSK
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Red1 • 5:39p, 7/30/22
AG
Red1 said:
The Russians are promising outlandish sums of money to new recruits who will get very little training. This tells me:

- The Russian Army is experiencing serious attrition to its soldiers.
- Inexperienced soldiers are easier to kill if they are forced to frontline units.

The advent of the P-51 in Europe was the bane to the Luftwaffe in WWII. In due time practically all the experienced German pilots were shot down. Their replacements had little experienced and were killed rather easily. This is an example of attritions and the ramifications of it.
What other signs of Russia suffering attrition do you see? It seems like they are still able to have marginal success. One would think scrub teams would get wiped out with no challenge.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 6:31p, 7/30/22
AG
It appears they're relying on Wagner to be a lead force instead of a supporting cast because their troops are depleted, tired, or incapable.
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Waffledynamics
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9:47p, 7/30/22
AG
Quote:
More than 50 explosions in Mykolaiv overnight, and continued
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/31-july-more-than-50-explosions-in-mykolaiv-overnight-and

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Waffledynamics
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11:01p, 7/30/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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11:07p, 7/30/22
AG
There has GOT to be a way to take out Russia's artillery guns. I've read here that it's better that they target civilian infrastructure, but after seeing city after city destroyed and captured, I'm tired of that excuse. There needs to be destruction of Russia's artillery. Make these orcs pay in blood and dead weaponry.

I'm so sick of seeing Russia destroy a city and then rush in. Barbarians.
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FriscoKid
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 11:18p, 7/30/22
AG
Russia is fighting the cities and civilians. Ukraine is fighting the Russian army. I really hope Russia doesn't somehow win this war.
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docb
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 11:20p, 7/30/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
There has GOT to be a way to take out Russia's artillery guns. I've read here that it's better that they target civilian infrastructure, but after seeing city after city destroyed and captured, I'm tired of that excuse. There needs to be destruction of Russia's artillery. Make these orcs pay in blood and dead weaponry.

I'm so sick of seeing Russia destroy a city and then rush in. Barbarians.

I think the biggest problem facing the Ukrainians is that they severely lack air power. Don't get me wrong I think they are doing extremely well with what they have but it needs to be more to help eliminate more targets effectively. It's just going to be a slow grind for their gains.
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6:29a, 7/31/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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7:45a, 7/31/22
AG
Quote:
Drone attack at Black Sea Fleet HQ was carried out from inside Sevastopol, - occupation authorities
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/31-july-drone-attack-at-black-sea-fleet-hq-was-carried-out

Quote:
HQ of Russian Black Sea Fleet in occupied Sevastopol was targeted with suspected drone. 5 wounded, all celebrations of the Navy day cancelled in the city
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/31-july-hq-of-russian-black-sea-fleet-in-occupied-sevastopol
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:59a, 7/31/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Quote:
Drone attack at Black Sea Fleet HQ was carried out from inside Sevastopol, - occupation authorities
Quote:
HQ of Russian Black Sea Fleet in occupied Sevastopol was targeted with suspected drone. 5 wounded, all celebrations of the Navy day cancelled in the city
LMAO
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:26a, 7/31/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
There has GOT to be a way to take out Russia's artillery guns. I've read here that it's better that they target civilian infrastructure, but after seeing city after city destroyed and captured, I'm tired of that excuse. There needs to be destruction of Russia's artillery. Make these orcs pay in blood and dead weaponry.

I'm so sick of seeing Russia destroy a city and then rush in. Barbarians.
Acting on real time intel and taking out ammo sites is key to slowing the orc arty attacks.
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black_ice
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In reply to FriscoKid • 9:07a, 7/31/22
FriscoKid said:
Russia is fighting the cities and civilians. Ukraine is fighting the Russian army. I really hope Russia doesn't somehow win this war.


They certainly could ol boy. They certainly could.
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sclaff
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10:30a, 7/31/22
AG
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lb3
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:57a, 7/31/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
There has GOT to be a way to take out Russia's artillery guns. I've read here that it's better that they target civilian infrastructure, but after seeing city after city destroyed and captured, I'm tired of that excuse. There needs to be destruction of Russia's artillery. Make these orcs pay in blood and dead weaponry.

I'm so sick of seeing Russia destroy a city and then rush in. Barbarians.
The orc artillery is wearing out with as many rounds as they are putting through them and accuracy is degrading. Slow the maintenance down and what artillery is left will be ineffective within a month or two.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to sclaff • 11:14a, 7/31/22
sclaff said:


One less Putin POS on this planet is always a good thing, but this one is even better.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to sclaff • 1:39p, 7/31/22
AG
sclaff said:


"You can do whatever you want, just don't get caught."

/Russia
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AgLA06
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 1:40p, 7/31/22
AG
I wouldn't believe that until you have pieces of him to confirm a DNA test.

Dead or alive.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to AgLA06 • 1:43p, 7/31/22
AG
I would hesitate to believe it as well, but this is the kind of guy Russia would send to the front armed with a banana to make sure this goes away.
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