Much depends on the level of attrition especially the must have supplies, vehicles, service members, fuel, weapons, weapons platforms to not lose a war. The Germans ran out of fuel, supplies, ammunition, and tanks in N Africa. That attrition guaranteed they would lose in that campaign. The Japanese running out of aircraft carriers in the Pacific meant they would lose the war. Without naval air power we owned the sky. By owning the sky, we owned the ocean.lb3 said:I'm not a military guy but those are the questions that will likely determine the fate of Russia for the next 60 years.Red1 said:
Are there fundamental flaws Ukraine can take advantage of to start large flanking maneuvers? Are the flaws so great that the Russian forces who are massed can be destroyed like a tethered goat? I don't know, but I hope so.
So far I have seen no evidence that Ukraine can maneuver large formations to flank the Russians. Taking ground requires infantry (hopefully backed by armor an close air support) closing on enemy lines. But Russian artillery, while not very precise or even timely, is overwhelming in volume.
Ukraine doesn't have enough smart weapons to take out all the artillery so they have to play the long game of continually degrading supplies and command structures from a distance while waiting for Russia to collapse.
I think this war ends in a rout of one side or another. Either the EU gives up on Ukraine and they run out of ammo or fuel, or they suffer a leadership collapse post Zelenskiy.
Or the Russians get stuck in a quagmire of ammo, food, and maintenance supply issues driving morale to the point that their army basically dissolves at first contact with the Ukrainians.
Smart militaries conduct shaping operations to gain future objectives. Right now the shaping operations Ukraine is conducting is destroying supply depots, destroying bridges, and possibly attacking Russian supply routes to cause attrition to its logistics capabilities. The ideal situation is that supply attrition will have second and third order effects which will cause attrition to the Russian combat power. Who knows. I don't have metrics and I don't have a crystal ball.
