***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,639,813 Views | 47868 Replies | Last: 12 hrs ago by 74OA
Red1
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lb3 said:

Red1 said:

Are there fundamental flaws Ukraine can take advantage of to start large flanking maneuvers? Are the flaws so great that the Russian forces who are massed can be destroyed like a tethered goat? I don't know, but I hope so.
I'm not a military guy but those are the questions that will likely determine the fate of Russia for the next 60 years.

So far I have seen no evidence that Ukraine can maneuver large formations to flank the Russians. Taking ground requires infantry (hopefully backed by armor an close air support) closing on enemy lines. But Russian artillery, while not very precise or even timely, is overwhelming in volume.

Ukraine doesn't have enough smart weapons to take out all the artillery so they have to play the long game of continually degrading supplies and command structures from a distance while waiting for Russia to collapse.

I think this war ends in a rout of one side or another. Either the EU gives up on Ukraine and they run out of ammo or fuel, or they suffer a leadership collapse post Zelenskiy.

Or the Russians get stuck in a quagmire of ammo, food, and maintenance supply issues driving morale to the point that their army basically dissolves at first contact with the Ukrainians.
Much depends on the level of attrition especially the must have supplies, vehicles, service members, fuel, weapons, weapons platforms to not lose a war. The Germans ran out of fuel, supplies, ammunition, and tanks in N Africa. That attrition guaranteed they would lose in that campaign. The Japanese running out of aircraft carriers in the Pacific meant they would lose the war. Without naval air power we owned the sky. By owning the sky, we owned the ocean.

Smart militaries conduct shaping operations to gain future objectives. Right now the shaping operations Ukraine is conducting is destroying supply depots, destroying bridges, and possibly attacking Russian supply routes to cause attrition to its logistics capabilities. The ideal situation is that supply attrition will have second and third order effects which will cause attrition to the Russian combat power. Who knows. I don't have metrics and I don't have a crystal ball.
GarryowenAg
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AG
Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

Video of Ukrainian operation at Ingulets river near Andriivka village
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-july-video-of-ukrainian-operation-at-ingulets-river-near



The video doesn't have a lot of action. It's basically just them running. Still, maybe keen eyes might see something I wouldn't think of.
I'm curious about the location of that bridging system. It definitely looks well established and the Ukes certainly don't seem concerned about security other that the presumed OP trucks on either side of the bridge at defilade. Appeared to be a squad plus, or 2 squad element. Other than that, I couldn't decipher anything else.
Red1
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If this is a rational world a US senior army general with his extensive staff is helping the Ukrainians plan. The major staff sections are:

- Personnel.
- Intelligence.
- Current and Future Operations.
- Logistics.
- Communications.
- Budget.

The beauty of the staffs is they are experts in their fields and can take various inputs to help the general war game the various courses of action. If I was the SECDEF I would order this be done.
TRM
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AG
Looks like Northern Ukraine got hit by cruise missiles this morning.
docb
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https://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_us_congress_declares_the_need_to_transfer_atacms_to_ukraine_democrats_and_republicans_support_the_decision-3699.html

I'm thinking this will happen at some point
74OA
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The crippling effects of sanctions on Russia's economy are becoming more and more clear. IMPACT

"Since the invasion, the Kremlin's economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable," the study said.

"These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin."

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed Russian ammunition warehouses in Chornobayivka and Bilohirka, - South Operative Command


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/28-july-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-destroyed-russian-ammunition

That's really close to the front in the Kherson region.
74OA
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Updates:
BBC
DW
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian troops resumed assault on Avdiivka and Pisky with tanks, howitzers and MLRS. Russian soldiers using Ukrainian uniform


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/28-july-russian-troops-resumed-assault-on-avdiivka-and-pisky

This is Northwest and North of Donetsk City. This news comes a few hours after reports of heavy shelling in Avdiivka.
FriscoKid
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Quote:

Russian soldiers using Ukrainian uniform
More war crimes.
Red1
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This might not amount to a hill of beans, but I will say it anyway. Here are some strategic thoughts about the Ukraine War. Carl Von Clausewitz who was an 1800s military theorist opined war consists of 3 important components. I will use tangible examples from the American Revolution for clarity.

- Passion of the People: The people will support its government and the military through various actions and enlisting to fight. Most of the Americans were passionate about attaining freedom from England and took various actions to support the military to include enlisting as a Continental Army or fighting as a militiaman. I will say this about Ukrainians. They have every reason to fight to the death considering all the atrocities committed by the Russians.

- Rational Government: The government is considered legitimate and makes sound decisions. The Continental Congress was not robust, but it did provide some leadership, direction, and support for the war efforts.

- Military Capability: War is the continuation of politics by other means. The CPT Obvious statement is the military must know how to fight to win the war. George Washington is considered to be one of the finest revolutionaries in world history. Eventually he built up a peer sized army to the English Army. Some our generals understood how to use the militia. Use the significant range of the long rifles and allow them to use guerilla like tactics. Under the tutelage of Baron Friedrich Wilhelm von Steuben, the Continental Army became a disciplined fighting force.

Now I challenge you to apply this trinity to the Ukraine War from the Ukraine and Russian perspectives.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The US military has a concept called Center of Gravity (COG). A COG is the true strength of a military or country. I believe the COGs in the Ukraine War are:

Ukraine: The ability to fight at a distance with precision weapons. Its people.
Russia: Massing and fighting for the close fight.

However, I would like to point out the Russian COG appears to be more ineffective over time. The true strength of the Russian military is not getting the job done, and I personally don't see them having an alternative COG to supplement what they have. The west must continue to give Ukraine long range precision fires weapons and munitions.

If the shaping operations of causing severe attrition to the Russian Army culminates into a great opportunity to counterattack, then it is paramount that Ukraine has ability to counterattack in force with speed and requisite violence. Flanking does not have to be this large complete sweep like in Desert Storm. Visualize you are a Russian infantry commander of a large unit fighting the close fight in a meat grinder battle, and you hear reports of a large enemy unit in the rear of the area of operations effectively counterattacking. That will put some doubt and fear in you. You understand that enemy unit can maneuver, has sufficient combat power, which means they could surprise you. It is very difficult to regroup to fight effectively once an enemy army is on the run.

I digress. I am window shopping for something that may never happen.




Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian military repelled an assault at direction Bruskynske-Bilohirka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/28-july-ukrainian-military-repelled-an-assault-at-direction

This is from 11 hours ago, in the Kherson region. Something about it stands out to me. They repelled an assault in the middle of their offensive?
USAFAg
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Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

Ukrainian military repelled an assault at direction Bruskynske-Bilohirka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/28-july-ukrainian-military-repelled-an-assault-at-direction

This is from 11 hours ago, in the Kherson region. Something about it stands out to me. They repelled an assault in the middle of their offensive?


Counterattack. Can disrupt, stall or even break an attack.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
Eliminatus
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Well, I just watched Russian soldiers castrate a captured, live, Ukrainian POW with a boxcutter. The dark pits of Reddit are exactly that. Won't link it but readily found online.

Not new, but the way these literal war crimes are taped and released like it is nothing is insane to me. I don't think most of the western world fully understands how absolutely bitter this war has been and continues to be. This one is heinous to watch but at the same time, I wish everyone would. Evil exists when there is no light to shine on it. Extremely firm believer of that. And I am positive the rest of the uke fighters have seen/ will see this video as well. And so continues the escalation and deepening hatred. This may be the must just national war we have seen as a world in over a century. From the Ukes side I mean.

Russia is a cancer on this world and has been for many generations.

ETA: Btw, the Russian who did it has already been found in other videos and I imagine he will be fully identified in very short order. And yes, I do hope he is captured in turn. It's a baser human mentality I know, but I have never claimed to be a saint. **** this dude.
FriscoKid
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AG


hope this turns out to be true
benchmark
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Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

Ukrainian military repelled an assault at direction Bruskynske-Bilohirka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
This is from 11 hours ago, in the Kherson region. Something about it stands out to me. They repelled an assault in the middle of their offensive?
What offensive? This is the area on the Inhulets River about 45 miles NE of Kherson. We've seen scant evidence of any Uke progress here for 2 months. They once had a bridgehead at Davydiv Brid for a short time and then lost it. No update on a more recent bridgehead nearby at Andriivka.
Not a Bot
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So Reddit allows that video but not the word "groomer."
ATX_AG_08
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Same type of evil as the cartels and Muslim extremists. Russia needs to be exterminated.
ATX_AG_08
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Looks like it was prob in response to this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10636597/amp/Ukrainian-doctor-tells-TV-interviewer-ordered-staff-CASTRATE-Russian-soldiers.html
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
Waffledynamics
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benchmark said:

Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

Ukrainian military repelled an assault at direction Bruskynske-Bilohirka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
This is from 11 hours ago, in the Kherson region. Something about it stands out to me. They repelled an assault in the middle of their offensive?
What offensive? This is the area on the Inhulets River about 45 miles NE of Kherson. We've seen scant evidence of any Uke progress here for 2 months. They once had a bridgehead at Davydiv Brid for a short time and then lost it. No update on a more recent bridgehead nearby at Andriivka.
Keep in mind that information coming out of that area is throttled quite a bit. There definitely has been an ongoing offensive.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Fire and explosions reported in Ilovaisk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/29-july-fire-and-explosions-reported-in-ilovaisk



Waffledynamics
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13 hours ago per LiveUaMap:

Quote:

The commander of the Russian fleet declares control of the Sea of Azov and the northern part of the Black Sea
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/28-july-the-commander-of-the-russian-fleet-declares-control
benchmark
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Waffledynamics said:

Keep in mind that information coming out of that area is throttled quite a bit. There definitely has been an ongoing offensive.
Agree ... almost total news blackout on both sides from the Kherson areas. That said, for the last 2 months all the battle reports near Davydiv Brid have been within a few miles of the Inhulets River. That smells like stalemate.

There's 30 miles of open country between the Inhulet and Dnipro rivers. They badly need a break out.
Waffledynamics
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benchmark said:

Waffledynamics said:

Keep in mind that information coming out of that area is throttled quite a bit. There definitely has been an ongoing offensive.
Agree ... almost total news blackout on both sides from the Kherson areas. That said, for the last 2 months all the battle reports near Davydiv Brid have been within a few miles of the Inhulets River. That smells like stalemate.

There's 30 miles of open country between the Inhulet and Dnipro rivers. They badly need a break out.
Agreed. How many of the weaponry/vehicles that they're getting can realistically help an offensive? It seems like most are better for defense and not to give a direct major edge. I'm no expert, though,
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

In Nova Kakhovka, locals report a series of explosions. At the same time other strikes were, apparently, somewhere outside city as locals report sounds similar to a secondary detonation are heard somewhere in the distance. Video with sounds of explosions from Nova Kakhovka-
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/29-july-in-nova-kakhovka-locals-report-a-series-of-explosions

lb3
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Eliminatus said:

ETA: Btw, the Russian who did it has already been found in other videos and I imagine he will be fully identified in very short order. And yes, I do hope he is captured in turn. It's a baser human mentality I know, but I have never claimed to be a saint. **** this dude.
When he's doxxed, post it here. I've watched most of the ISIS and cartel snuff videos over the years but I don't need to see any more of that stuff right now.
Eliminatus
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lb3 said:

Eliminatus said:

ETA: Btw, the Russian who did it has already been found in other videos and I imagine he will be fully identified in very short order. And yes, I do hope he is captured in turn. It's a baser human mentality I know, but I have never claimed to be a saint. **** this dude.
When he's doxxed, post it here. I've watched most of the ISIS and cartel snuff videos over the years but I don't need to see any more of that stuff right now.
Oh, he is already probably doxxed. A man was found that appears to be him. The internet neckbeards, as cringe and mega-virgins that they are, have a weird sense of honor. Live mutilation of bound and helpless prisoners is a no-no and they went to work and are continuing to do so. There is a name, multiple ID numbers, background, current address, current vehicle, and family status (single, no kids) now available with multiple photos of him and his neighborhood. Seems to be fairly accurate with a few going to length to ensure his identity. Will never be 100% but effort was made I guess.

Either way, this made the waves and the Ukes know. Reprisals are bound to happen and this war will just continue to get worse and worse somehow. Executing civilians and killing little kids is not enough apparently.

Russia needs to lose and they need to lose badly. Their war machine is a cruel and bestial monster that has perpetuated the worst humanity has to offer. Over and over and over and over....



AGS-R-TUFF
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AG
Who?mikejones!
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So there's video of a Russian cutting off the genitals of a Ukrainian pow. Obviously not gonna post it here.

But wow.
Teacher_Ag
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Redditors also already fully doxxed the dude and know exactly who he is and where he's from. Hoping his days are numbered. That video was the worst thing I've seen since ISIS was posting their highlight reels.
Who?mikejones!
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I didn't watch it
black_ice
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I just watched it. It's ****ed up.
ABATTBQ11
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Teacher_Ag said:

Redditors also already fully doxxed the dude and know exactly who he is and where he's from. Hoping his days are numbered. That video was the worst thing I've seen since ISIS was posting their highlight reels.


He'll probably be cannon fodder soon to get rid of him
javajaws
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HIMARS hacked?

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-has-secret-development-take-down-us-himars-military-expert-1728820?amp=1
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
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