I haven't compared the maps side by side yet but Russia seemed to be taking ground 2 weeks ago and it seems like Ukraine is taking it back

Jomini of the West update. He's been surprisingly accurate since the start. Open each map to read analysis.

"I will be breaking up my normal update over the course of several days. There is a lot of data to analysis and discuss, therefore today's thread will be a short one on the major events of the past three weeks. Tomorrow's update will focus on naval developments. An assessment on air operations will follow this weekend, as well as a deep dive into operational trends and the likely trajectory of operations for the late summer / early fall."

JOW

Providing western fighter planes for Ukraine is slowly gaining acceptance: WHICH TYPE?

P.U.T.U said:

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I haven't compared the maps side by side yet but Russia seemed to be taking ground 2 weeks ago and it seems like Ukraine is taking it back

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Not so sure about that, but Russia has been beating their head against the wall and is not making many gains. Meanwhile, Ukraine is strengthening and putting up a stout defense. What gains Russia is getting is mostly due to destruction so bad there's nothing left to defend in a town.

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned that Russia seems committed to political gains for very high costs, while Ukraine is willing to let them have it for those high costs, at least temporarily.

What I wonder is if you'll see a rapid recapture of some of these towns. Unless Russia is mass rebuilding these towns right now, how are they going to defend their gains in the case of any strong counterattack that reaches a destroyed city?

Waffledynamics said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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I haven't compared the maps side by side yet but Russia seemed to be taking ground 2 weeks ago and it seems like Ukraine is taking it back

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Not so sure about that, but Russia has been beating their head against the wall and is not making many gains. Meanwhile, Ukraine is strengthening and putting up a stout defense. What gains Russia is getting is mostly due to destruction so bad there's nothing left to defend in a town.

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned that Russia seems committed to political gains for very high costs, while Ukraine is willing to let them have it for those high costs, at least temporarily.

What I wonder is if you'll see a rapid recapture of some of these towns. Unless Russia is mass rebuilding these towns right now, how are they going to defend their gains in the case of any strong counterattack that reaches a destroyed city?

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Russia's "success" to date amounts to sitting in the ruins of cities it gutted and choking on the dust of the earth it scorched--all at fantastic cost to its army.

Sea or River landing seems like the only option since the Ukraine air defense is so stout.

Paratroopers would have made sense otherwise.

EU making progress preparing for a winter without Russian energy.

"Currently, gas storage facilities in the EU are on average 65% full, which is very good. That makes the target of 80 to 90% in three-and-a-half months a realistic one. Poland, Sweden and Denmark have already reached this target. In Germany, the figure is currently 65%."

ENERGY

Wasn't Germany just drawing from its winter reserves earlier this week?

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Wasn't Germany just drawing from its winter reserves earlier this week?

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Yes, before Russia reopened Nordstream 1 after "maintenance".

Zelensky holding firm. UPDATE

74OA said:

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Providing western fighter planes for Ukraine is slowly gaining acceptance: WHICH TYPE?

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A year to train pilots. For use in this war that's a waste of time and lives. Send them the drones.


If it was me I would be buying them the newer Bayraktar Akinci. Probably way cheaper, make the turks happier to help UKR, UKR already knows how to fly it, and no loss of intel if orcs bring one down.
https://www.baykartech.com/en/uav/bayraktar-akinci/

Might be possible UKR is about to engage major air op with manned and new unpublished unmanned aircraft in the south while the HIMARS have been hitting orc EW/radar sites with continued help of our intel assets flying overhead and hopefully with ATACMS as part of the already shipped assets.

NM

They're going to need both.

JFABNRGR said:

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74OA said:

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Providing western fighter planes for Ukraine is slowly gaining acceptance: WHICH TYPE?

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A year to train pilots. For use in this war that's a waste of time and lives. Send them the drones.


If it was me I would be buying them the newer Bayraktar Akinci. Probably way cheaper, make the turks happier to help UKR, UKR already knows how to fly it, and no loss of intel if orcs bring one down.
https://www.baykartech.com/en/uav/bayraktar-akinci/

Might be possible UKR is about to engage major air op with manned and new unpublished unmanned aircraft in the south while the HIMARS have been hitting orc EW/radar sites with continued help of our intel assets flying overhead and hopefully with ATACMS as part of the already shipped assets.

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What is the radar cross section of these drones? Would they be more susceptible to anti aircraft weapons?

I think the time has come for an integrated from aerial attack on a larger scale. Mix of dummy drones, TB2s, loitering munitions, and Support aircraft would overwhelm an under supported Ru ADA. It doesn't have to be on the scale of operation millennium in WW2, but sizable enough to more than bruise the enemy, expose their network, and force them to shoot off equipment from their dwindling inventory.

The only question i have is it limited by bandwidth.

JFABNRGR said:

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I feel like were getting very close to russia having to make a change in Ukraine, between supply chain logistics, HIMARS, and continued UKR defenses tallying up overall losses they are going to have to either start pulling out of areas or up the anti with risking aircraft or worse nukes.

Live UA map says US experts estimate 100+ ammo dumps and C&C targets hit.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/22-july-the-united-states-believes-ukraine-has-taken-out

Artillery hammers 2 orc INF squads
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/w538dy/ukrainian_108th_and_109th_battalion_artillery/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Orc equipment destroyed in open fields. Fairly eerie. A few bodies but nothing graphic/horrific. Does not look like much evidence of artillery. This could be new footage of old attacks.


US says russia has committed 85% of its DFs to Ukraine. Unreal.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w5d1r8/new_from_senior_us_defense_official_on_the_war_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Entire orc artillery battery 8 guns destroyed.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/w58qoi/a_russian_target_eight_152mm_2a65_mstab_howitzers/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

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I don't think that video is recorded footage at at all. I believe it's a fly-through in a game engine level editor. The 3D imagery seems like it was created from photogrammetry data but is being rendered on a GPU rather than replayed from an actual drone camera. They eyepoint jerks more like a mouse movement controlling it than a camera panning on a quadcopter.

Let me ask my dumbass question. I keep seeing the word orc around here. Does it have a specific military meaning or is it a LOTR reference to describe Russia?

Ag In Ok said:

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I think the time has come for an integrated from aerial attack on a larger scale. Mix of dummy drones, TB2s, loitering munitions, and Support aircraft would overwhelm an under supported Ru ADA. It doesn't have to be on the scale of operation millennium in WW2, but sizable enough to more than bruise the enemy, expose their network, and force them to shoot off equipment from their dwindling inventory.

The only question i have is it limited by bandwidth.

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Thanks for the reply.

LOTR reference to describe Russia

Malibu2 said:

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Let me ask my dumbass question. I keep seeing the word orc around here. Does it have a specific military meaning or is it a LOTR reference to describe Russia?

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A Ukrainian friend told me that orc is a LOTR reference that Ukrainians have used for Russians for years. It was apparently common long before the current war.

Okay, what is LOTR?

Excellent. The military sometimes uses acronyms to describe acronyms so I wasn't sure if I was out of the loop on something technical. But I do appreciate that description or Russian forces.

Lord of the Rings

aggiehawg said:

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Okay, what is LOTR?

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Aahh, explains that. Never read the books nor watched the movies.

ETA: Think I may have read The Hobbit once but wasn't that engrossed in it.

Ag In Ok said:

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I think the time has come for an integrated from aerial attack on a larger scale. Mix of dummy drones, TB2s, loitering munitions, and Support aircraft would overwhelm an under supported Ru ADA. It doesn't have to be on the scale of operation millennium in WW2, but sizable enough to more than bruise the enemy, expose their network, and force them to shoot off equipment from their dwindling inventory.

The only question i have is it limited by bandwidth.

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This is what I was referring to and my prayer is weapons in theater but not yet announced.

Given our intel, the HIMARS w med or Long range hit as many of the S3/400s and or EW/Radars followed by dummys followed by unmanned/manned & missiles. Sure like to see some subs, aircraft, supply line infrastructure, and missile launch facilities get wasted between the Dnieper and south crimea.

FWIW if that one video is from a damn game then I was sure fooled and my apologies.

JFABNRGR said:

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I feel like were getting very close to russia having to make a change in Ukraine, between supply chain logistics, HIMARS, and continued UKR defenses tallying up overall losses they are going to have to either start pulling out of areas or up the anti with risking aircraft or worse nukes.

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We may have just witnessed the peak of Russia's conventional military power. At least for the foreseeable future.

They've committed almost their entire military with mostly Pyrrhic results. They don't have the equipment (trucks), the time, or the infrastructure to improve logistics beyond dispersing depots. They don't have air superiority and they won't get it. They have far less ability to take out HIMARS than we had to take out Iraqi SCUDS. And now, they're backfilling losses with less capable manpower and equipment. Meanwhile, the Kremlin seems determined to continue the offensive?

All that said, their air defense and artillery are legit and they've had 5 months to dig in. Any Ukrainian counter-offensive won't be easy.

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/07/22/500-plus-drones-extra-himars-headed-to-ukraine-in-latest-us-assistance-package/

Things seem to be escalating. Putin having HIMARs nightmares.

They obviously thought they were untouchable inside the nuclear plant.

The Ukrainian military attacked the positions of #Russian troops near the #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station.

📰 Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported. pic.twitter.com/r51GITdbHF

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) July 22, 2022

ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 22

Quote:

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Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) published footage on July 22 of the July 20 Ukrainian strike on Russian military assets at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast.[25] GUR's footage shows strikes on a Russian BM-21 Grad and anti-air transport among the NPP's water coolers and Russian personnel tents roughly 350 meters from the nearest nuclear cell block.[26] GUR reported that the strikes killed three Russian personnel and wounded 12 others.[27] Images of the strikes' aftermath show devastation at the former tent site with no damage to the surrounding NPP facilities.[28]

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Look at those orcs scramble and run.

It's just played at something like 10x actual speed. Look at the tattered flag on the tank. Flapping like mad as if the video is greatly sped up, which it apparently is for the sake of brevity.

Russia = Big slow boxer. Ukraine = Smaller faster boxer.

Russia's strength is the close fight and the Ukraine's is the far fight.