ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Problem is there is no guarantee production will start in 2023 with global supply chain issues, and even if it does it may not be in substantial quantities. That's why I think they'll get a limited number if and when they do get them.

---

ATACMS are the only long range tactical missile we have. Lockheed produced about 3,850 ATACMS and over 600 were use in Iraq/Afg ... so we don't have very many. Their remaining shelf life is 3-10 yrs depending on the last round of refurbs that started in 2015. So, a few hundred seems all we could spare.

ATACMS next-gen successor is PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) with a 500km range. The first 120 will be delivered in late FY23 ... then about 250/yr thereafter for a total planned purchase of about 4,000. The delivery schedule may have accelerated recently but probably not significantly.

If delivered, they would be used sparingly and only for extremely valuable targets. Maybe to prep the battlefield immediately prior to a major offensive.

Malibu2 said:

---

Well I thoroughly share the sentiment, I want to make sure I'm not confirming my own biases. What's the devils advocate rebuttal that Russian logistics won't collapse by August?

---

I ask myself the same questions. As you said, Hopium is a strong drug.

However, we've known since their failed northern offensive that Russian logistics is primitive and their weakest link. Ultimately, Ukraine needs to cut their rail ratlines in the south for the coup de grace. And we also know this - Ukraine shouldn't wait more than 4-6 weeks to start a major offensive before the rainy season starts.

If true that the Russians have shifted their primary naval assets from Sevastopol to Novorossyisk, then they realize the Ukes are getting the deep strike munitions.

What is interesting here is that if the Ukes are able to successfully retake any pockets of the South near Melitopol or even north of Mariupol, they could technically reach that naval base as well.

Crimean airbases, ammo dumps, Sevastopol, Kerch Bridge and potentially (if Southern campaign is successful) take out Novorossyisk - basically destroying both Russian naval bases in the region.

AGS-R-TUFF said:

---

If true that the Russians have shifted their primary naval assets from Sevastopol to Novorossyisk, then they realize the Ukes are getting the deep strike munitions.

What is interesting here is that if the Ukes are able to successfully retake any pockets of the South near Melitopol or even north of Mariupol, they could technically reach that naval base as well.

Crimean airbases, ammo dumps, Sevastopol, Kerch Bridge and potentially (if Southern campaign is successful) take out Novorossyisk - basically destroying both Russian naval bases in the region.

---

That should be the strategic goal.

Way back when this invasion began, the biggest question to me was what would Turkey do with regards to the Straits. When they opted to close them to warships except those returning to home port, that tied Russia's hands in the use of naval assets outside of the Black Sea.

Take those naval ports out of the equation, they can't redeploy naval assets to backfill in the Black Sea.

New Russian propaganda....have a child soldier die in Ukraine? Don't worry. Use the cash benefit to buy a new car.

You couldn't make this up

Last night Russian state TV ran a report on the unexpected 'benefits' of having your son killed in Ukraine

You can buy a Lada with the compensation given to you by the state! pic.twitter.com/itzuSiSMhC

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) July 18, 2022

Ukraine having difficulty managing all the different donated Western weapon systems. HODGEPODGE

I'm surprised that Russia values a male's life as high as the cost of a dish washing machine.

fullback44 said:

---

1/2⬇️The RF Armed Forces are moving train unloading points outside of #HIMARS range, this image gives an idea of ​​how this affects delivery times.

Conclusion: Transportation time has doubled, so they need twice as many trucks to keep up the speed of delivery.#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rntvt0K2PZ

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) July 17, 2022

Himars causing Ruskies to unload ammo out of Himars range.. Time for our bigger missiles ?

---

That map shows how important it is to take out the Kerch bridge. Half of Russian occupied Ukraine is being supplied by rail over that bridge. Taking it out would make their whole occupation from Crimea to Mariupol collapse in a week.

Bulldog73 said:

---

fullback44 said:

---

1/2⬇️The RF Armed Forces are moving train unloading points outside of #HIMARS range, this image gives an idea of ​​how this affects delivery times.

Conclusion: Transportation time has doubled, so they need twice as many trucks to keep up the speed of delivery.#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rntvt0K2PZ

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) July 17, 2022

Himars causing Ruskies to unload ammo out of Himars range.. Time for our bigger missiles ?

---

That map shows how important it is to take out the Kerch bridge. Half of Russian occupied Ukraine is being supplied by rail over that bridge. Taking it out would make their whole occupation from Crimea to Mariupol collapse in a week.

---

Exactly why Russia is fortifying the hell out of that bridge. I hope Ukraine's window to take it out doesn't close.

Interesting. EW target identified from Sunday's attack near the dam ... only a few hundred feet away from the bridge crossing the river canal.

Russian media claim that Ukraine targeted the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric plant. In fact, the target appears to have been an EW repellent-1 system. This @planet satellite image shows the system hours before the attack.

1/2https://t.co/vwTXiME081 pic.twitter.com/Gt5O9tzhnw

— Benjamin Pittet (@COUPSURE) July 19, 2022

Ukraine : Vidéo d'un média d'état de Russie qui montre un impact à l'endroit où a été ciblé ce (véhicule Repellent-1 ?) qui s'abritait à proximité des infrastructures de la centrale hydroélectrique de Kakhovka.
📌 46.77460, 33.37436
Géolocalisation : https://t.co/C0GaswfrUV pic.twitter.com/Mst7nnRjGB

— Rebecca Rambar (@RebeccaRambar) July 19, 2022

https://t.co/JHUOWkpP51 pic.twitter.com/dLrPpdx7m5

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) July 19, 2022

benchmark said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Problem is there is no guarantee production will start in 2023 with global supply chain issues, and even if it does it may not be in substantial quantities. That's why I think they'll get a limited number if and when they do get them.

---

ATACMS are the only long range tactical missile we have. Lockheed produced about 3,850 ATACMS and over 600 were use in Iraq/Afg ... so we don't have very many. Their remaining shelf life is 3-10 yrs depending on the last round of refurbs that started in 2015. So, a few hundred seems all we could spare.

ATACMS next-gen successor is PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) with a 500km range. The first 120 will be delivered in late FY23 ... then about 250/yr thereafter for a total planned purchase of about 4,000. The delivery schedule may have accelerated recently but probably not significantly.

If delivered, they would be used sparingly and only for extremely valuable targets. Maybe to prep the battlefield immediately prior to a major offensive.

---

I was thinking even less than a few hundred, but basically all of this. I think if they got them, they would have to be used on naval bases or serious choke points for Russian logistics.

They may not be able to take out the Kerch bridge with them as their warheads are probably too small, but the rail lines from the bridge go through what looks like a short, shallow tunnel several miles west. THAT could be hit with a bunker buster to collapse the tunnel, which would then take time to clear. There are also smaller rail bridges over highways that could be hit to disrupt rail traffic. If you follow the rail line west, there's a long stretch where it is the only line. If you cut it anywhere where this is the case, Russia would need to truck supplies or load from one train to another, severely limiting their ability to resupply into the line was fixed.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3532696-ukrainian-forces-shoot-down-russian-fighter-jet-in-kherson-region.html

Here ya go ... first evidence of hits to the Kherson hwy bridge. Minimal damage using 95 lb artillery rounds.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/w2va1p/ukrainian_artillery_hit_the_antonovskiy_bridge_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

AGS-R-TUFF said:

---

What is interesting here is that if the Ukes are able to successfully retake any pockets of the South near Melitopol or even north of Mariupol, they could technically reach that naval base as well.

---

Interesting. I suspect the nuke threats will be turned up to 11 if Ukraine retakes Melitopol.

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

benchmark said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Problem is there is no guarantee production will start in 2023 with global supply chain issues, and even if it does it may not be in substantial quantities. That's why I think they'll get a limited number if and when they do get them.

---

ATACMS are the only long range tactical missile we have. Lockheed produced about 3,850 ATACMS and over 600 were use in Iraq/Afg ... so we don't have very many. Their remaining shelf life is 3-10 yrs depending on the last round of refurbs that started in 2015. So, a few hundred seems all we could spare.

ATACMS next-gen successor is PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) with a 500km range. The first 120 will be delivered in late FY23 ... then about 250/yr thereafter for a total planned purchase of about 4,000. The delivery schedule may have accelerated recently but probably not significantly.

If delivered, they would be used sparingly and only for extremely valuable targets. Maybe to prep the battlefield immediately prior to a major offensive.

---

I was thinking even less than a few hundred, but basically all of this. I think if they got them, they would have to be used on naval bases or serious choke points for Russian logistics.

They may not be able to take out the Kerch bridge with them as their warheads are probably too small, but the rail lines from the bridge go through what looks like a short, shallow tunnel several miles west. THAT could be hit with a bunker buster to collapse the tunnel, which would then take time to clear. There are also smaller rail bridges over highways that could be hit to disrupt rail traffic. If you follow the rail line west, there's a long stretch where it is the only line. If you cut it anywhere where this is the case, Russia would need to truck supplies or load from one train to another, severely limiting their ability to resupply into the line was fixed.

---

The two main roads out of Crimea are the E105 in the east and the E97 in the west. Both railroads out of Crimea roughly follow those highway's routes. E105 has a long highway and rail bridge over a marsh and estuary near Chonhar. E97 has longish highway and rail bridges over a flood plain near Armiansk. Both would be far easier to take out than the Kerch Bridge.

benchmark said:

---

Malibu2 said:

---

Well I thoroughly share the sentiment, I want to make sure I'm not confirming my own biases. What's the devils advocate rebuttal that Russian logistics won't collapse by August?

---

I ask myself the same questions. As you said, Hopium is a strong drug.

However, we've known since their failed northern offensive that Russian logistics is primitive and their weakest link. Ultimately, Ukraine needs to cut their rail ratlines in the south for the coup de grace. And we also know this - Ukraine shouldn't wait more than 4-6 weeks to start a major offensive before the rainy season starts.

---

There is no doubt that too many in the West looking at Western media are inhaling the Hopium.

the truth of actual reality is that the Russians have been pounding the Uke defenders and defenses into literal dust. the Uke offensive in the vicinity of Kherson has made very little progress over the last two weeks

We really don't know at this stage how effective TWELVE artillery batteries are going to be long term.

unless the Ukes can start to deploy massive numbers of artillery tubes and the Polish tanks - and increase vastly the size of their army- they will not "win".

the best that would happen is a continuous incremental snail pace movement of the lines westward. Russia still has massive numbers of potential manpower they can feed in if they decide that's their next move

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

benchmark said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Problem is there is no guarantee production will start in 2023 with global supply chain issues, and even if it does it may not be in substantial quantities. That's why I think they'll get a limited number if and when they do get them.

---

ATACMS are the only long range tactical missile we have. Lockheed produced about 3,850 ATACMS and over 600 were use in Iraq/Afg ... so we don't have very many. Their remaining shelf life is 3-10 yrs depending on the last round of refurbs that started in 2015. So, a few hundred seems all we could spare.

ATACMS next-gen successor is PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) with a 500km range. The first 120 will be delivered in late FY23 ... then about 250/yr thereafter for a total planned purchase of about 4,000. The delivery schedule may have accelerated recently but probably not significantly.

If delivered, they would be used sparingly and only for extremely valuable targets. Maybe to prep the battlefield immediately prior to a major offensive.

---

I was thinking even less than a few hundred, but basically all of this. I think if they got them, they would have to be used on naval bases or serious choke points for Russian logistics.

They may not be able to take out the Kerch bridge with them as their warheads are probably too small, but the rail lines from the bridge go through what looks like a short, shallow tunnel several miles west. THAT could be hit with a bunker buster to collapse the tunnel, which would then take time to clear. There are also smaller rail bridges over highways that could be hit to disrupt rail traffic. If you follow the rail line west, there's a long stretch where it is the only line. If you cut it anywhere where this is the case, Russia would need to truck supplies or load from one train to another, severely limiting their ability to resupply into the line was fixed.

---

OR the Ukes could actually wait until a nice fat supply train or truck convoy is moving north

and then blow the hell out of them ON a bridge or culvert.

LMCane said:

---

benchmark said:

---

Malibu2 said:

---

Well I thoroughly share the sentiment, I want to make sure I'm not confirming my own biases. What's the devils advocate rebuttal that Russian logistics won't collapse by August?

---

I ask myself the same questions. As you said, Hopium is a strong drug.

However, we've known since their failed northern offensive that Russian logistics is primitive and their weakest link. Ultimately, Ukraine needs to cut their rail ratlines in the south for the coup de grace. And we also know this - Ukraine shouldn't wait more than 4-6 weeks to start a major offensive before the rainy season starts.

---

There is no doubt that too many in the West looking at Western media are inhaling the Hopium.

the truth of actual reality is that the Russians have been pounding the Uke defenders and defenses into literal dust. the Uke offensive in the vicinity of Kherson has made very little progress over the last two weeks

We really don't know at this stage how effective TWELVE artillery batteries are going to be long term.

unless the Ukes can start to deploy massive numbers of artillery tubes and the Polish tanks - and increase vastly the size of their army- they will not "win".

the best that would happen is a continuous incremental snail pace movement of the lines westward. Russia still has massive numbers of potential manpower they can feed in if they decide that's their next move

---

I think the point of the article was not that Ukraine could win with 12 artillery batteries, but rather that the onslaught of Russian artillery can only continue if Russia has an inexhaustible supply of ammo. This article is suggesting that they are running dangerously low on ammo, their equipment is malfunctioning at unacceptable rates, and that the munitions factories are exporting to fulfill international contracts rather than to resupply their own army. If that's truly the case, Russia is probably screwed in short order.

So the real question western governments / media need to ask is what is true about Russian resupply of ammo and production. If it's all bs and the Russian war machine cranks onward, it's worth reading about to realistically understand the current battlefield and make educated guesses about the future. If Russia truly is about to run out of bullets, time to take a nice long drag on that peace Doobie.

“Ignore logistics, and you will lose.” Russia has ignored logistics. https://t.co/RXMjua4fRe

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) July 19, 2022

Good read if you want to have hope the Ukraine will pull this off.

I read that article and it is very interesting. What I can't figure out is all this talk about Ukraine not being able to match the manpower and firepower of Russia, then why in the world is Russia not just running over them? This has been going on for months and Russia has realistically only made minimal gains in the east and seems to be regressing everywhere else. Will this end in some sort of stalemate? Probably. But I could see the scenario where a tipping point is reached and Ukraine really starts to push the Russians back.

LMCane said:

---

benchmark said:

---

Malibu2 said:

---

Well I thoroughly share the sentiment, I want to make sure I'm not confirming my own biases. What's the devils advocate rebuttal that Russian logistics won't collapse by August?

---

I ask myself the same questions. As you said, Hopium is a strong drug.

However, we've known since their failed northern offensive that Russian logistics is primitive and their weakest link. Ultimately, Ukraine needs to cut their rail ratlines in the south for the coup de grace. And we also know this - Ukraine shouldn't wait more than 4-6 weeks to start a major offensive before the rainy season starts.

---

There is no doubt that too many in the West looking at Western media are inhaling the Hopium.

the truth of actual reality is that the Russians have been pounding the Uke defenders and defenses into literal dust. the Uke offensive in the vicinity of Kherson has made very little progress over the last two weeks

We really don't know at this stage how effective TWELVE artillery batteries are going to be long term.

unless the Ukes can start to deploy massive numbers of artillery tubes and the Polish tanks - and increase vastly the size of their army- they will not "win".

the best that would happen is a continuous incremental snail pace movement of the lines westward. Russia still has massive numbers of potential manpower they can feed in if they decide that's their next move

---

I'm not following your logic. Russia already has a massive manpower and firepower advantage. And all they can do is gain slivers of land in the east over months. Hell, they've lost as much land in that time as they've gained.

Every day is more time for Ukraine to train troops and improve equipment and suppliers. Every day is a couple yards further for about inept Russian logistics and less Soviet Era equipped and ammo available.

docb said:

---

I read that article and it is very interesting. What I can't figure out is all this talk about Ukraine not being able to match the manpower and firepower of Russia, then why in the world is Russia not just running over them? This has been going on for months and Russia has realistically only made minimal gains in the east and seems to be regressing everywhere else. Will this end in some sort of stalemate? Probably. But I could see the scenario where a tipping point is reached and Ukraine really starts to push the Russians back.

---

It's easier to play defense whennyour soldiers are fighting for survival (and therefore motivated) vs projecting force with a low morale army of uneducated, poorly trained army. In a nutshell.

docb said:

---

I read that article and it is very interesting. What I can't figure out is all this talk about Ukraine not being able to match the manpower and firepower of Russia, then why in the world is Russia not just running over them? This has been going on for months and Russia has realistically only made minimal gains in the east and seems to be regressing everywhere else. Will this end in some sort of stalemate? Probably. But I could see the scenario where a tipping point is reached and Ukraine really starts to push the Russians back.

---

The Ukranians are in an entrenched defensive position. It's pretty difficult to go on the offensive against entrenched positions (Ask the Ukrainians that are trying and failing to take back substantial territory right now). Russia also hasn't declared war, so it is essentially trying to take on a large European country with one hand tied behind its back.

Also from what little I have read and understand, Russia's military doctrine is to use massive amounts of artillery to slowly grind down an opponent. Their military is ill equipped to do much of anything else.

Ukraine is on borrowed time. IMO the reason why they haven't been defeated yet is because the west hasn't stopped pumping weapons to them. Once the west loses interest, and they probably will, it's over.

lb3 said:

---

AGS-R-TUFF said:

---

What is interesting here is that if the Ukes are able to successfully retake any pockets of the South near Melitopol or even north of Mariupol, they could technically reach that naval base as well.

---

Interesting. I suspect the nuke threats will be turned up to 11 if Ukraine retakes Melitopol.

---

After having their country invaded, cities destroyed, thousands of innocent civilians murdered, I don't think the Ukes give a crap about the "broken record" nuke threats. So we'll just have to see what happens.

I'm not sure the west is going to lose interest on this one. I think we realize that it is time to put an end to the Putin aggression. Anybody would have to admit that Russia is not the power anyone thought they were. They can't even fly their planes in Ukranian controlled territory without a decent chance of being shot down.

rgag12 said:

---

docb said:

---

I read that article and it is very interesting. What I can't figure out is all this talk about Ukraine not being able to match the manpower and firepower of Russia, then why in the world is Russia not just running over them? This has been going on for months and Russia has realistically only made minimal gains in the east and seems to be regressing everywhere else. Will this end in some sort of stalemate? Probably. But I could see the scenario where a tipping point is reached and Ukraine really starts to push the Russians back.

---

The Ukranians are in an entrenched defensive position. It's pretty difficult to go on the offensive against entrenched positions (Ask the Ukrainians that are trying and failing to take back substantial territory right now). Russia also hasn't declared war, so it is essentially trying to take on a large European country with one hand tied behind its back.

Also from what little I have read and understand, Russia's military doctrine is to use massive amounts of artillery to slowly grind down an opponent. Their military is ill equipped to do much of anything else.

Ukraine is on borrowed time. IMO the reason why they haven't been defeated yet is because the west hasn't stopped pumping weapons to them. Once the west loses interest, and they probably will, it's over.

---

And that's why Putin is cutting NG off to the EU, to force them to capitulate and abandon Ukraine.

docb said:

---

I'm not sure the west is going to lose interest on this one. I think we realize that it is time to put an end to the Putin aggression. Anybody would have to admit that Russia is not the power anyone thought they were. They can't even fly their planes in Ukranian controlled territory without a decent chance of being shot down.

---

Through October 0 chance. It'll get interesting when it starts getting really cold in Europe in there is no Russian gas to provide heat. Unless Ukraine can score a big KO in the next few months, I'm not sure how much pain will Europe will endure for Ukraine's sake this winter before someone taps out and wants to sue for peace.

Malibu2 said:

---

docb said:

---

I'm not sure the west is going to lose interest on this one. I think we realize that it is time to put an end to the Putin aggression. Anybody would have to admit that Russia is not the power anyone thought they were. They can't even fly their planes in Ukranian controlled territory without a decent chance of being shot down.

---

Through October 0 chance. It'll get interesting when it starts getting really cold in Europe in there is no Russian gas to provide heat. Unless Ukraine can score a big KO in the next few months, I'm not sure how much pain will Europe will endure for Ukraine's sake this winter before someone taps out and wants to sue for peace.

---

I'm hoping for a mild winter!!!

Today's SITREP.

What the heck? LiveUaMap has a noticeable absence of shelling in a lot of areas the past day.



DeepState (actual Ukrainian government-provided info) also seems to be a bit less active with artillery (though it shows more). Much of it seems to be in the 12-24 and 24-48 hours color category. Much of the newer fires are in the Kherson/Mykolaiv area.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#7/49.393/34.969

Hit the fire icon in the bottom left to see the fires.

Either data has not been updated, or there's been a significant drop-off of shelling, particularly by the Russians.

Kherson/Mykolaiv region:

Quote:

---

Ukrainian air defence shot down Su-35 jet over Kherson region

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-ukrainian-air-defence-shot-down-su35-jet-over-kherson

На Херсонщині ЗСУ збили російський винищувач Су-35 pic.twitter.com/Wy9xbfR9jy

— Українська правда ✌️ (@ukrpravda_news) July 19, 2022

ETA: Denys Davydov discusses it at the beginning of his latest video:



Also news from the Russian air defense not far away:

Quote:

---

Air defence reportedly engaged an aircraft near Nova Kakhovka

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-air-defence-reportedly-engaged-an-aircraft-near-nova


Looks like Ukraine hit some Russian radar along the coast, approximately 61 km South of Kherson.

Quote:

---

Russian radar 48Ya6-K1 Podlyot-K1 was destroyed near Skadovsk

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-russian-radar-48ya6k1-podlyotk1-was-destroyed-near

Quote:

---

Odesa district administration confirms missile strike at one of settlements

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-odesa-district-administration-confirms-missile-strike

There has to be some improved defense in the Odessa area. They're just getting hammered by missiles. Their air defense seemed to be catching more a while ago, but now it seems like they're getting struck more. Different missiles? They seem to be Kalibr in some reports.

Putin's weaponizing food, of course, of course.

Quote:

---

Putin: We proposed to the Turkish side the necessity of lifting the sanctions targeting Russia, which prevent the facilitation of the export of grain

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-putin-we-proposed-to-the-turkish-side-the-necessity

Quote:

---

Russian President: We are ready to export 30 million tons of grain and food and 50 million tons of fertilizers

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-russian-president-we-are-ready-to-export-30-million