docb said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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⚡️ Ukraine's defense minister gets 'very good news' in conversation with US counterpart.

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that on July 18 U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin gave him "some very good news" that he will reveal soon.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 18, 2022

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Hopefully it's something that will rain hell on the Russian invaders!

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300 km missiles hopefully ! Crimea port will be in trouble ! Blow up those stockpiles of ammo!

Do we keep inching closer to getting directly involved? Why are we wasting time with trickling increasingly deadlier weapons to Uk? Why don't we just go big and give them what they need to save lives? I don't understand the slow roll because it's obvious to everyone we want Russia defeated in this war. Are we goading Russia to attack our forces?

1/2⬇️The RF Armed Forces are moving train unloading points outside of #HIMARS range, this image gives an idea of ​​how this affects delivery times.

Conclusion: Transportation time has doubled, so they need twice as many trucks to keep up the speed of delivery.#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rntvt0K2PZ

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) July 17, 2022

Himars causing Ruskies to unload ammo out of Himars range.. Time for our bigger missiles ?

With each day of war I lose words and am left with just swearing.

Damned Russians. pic.twitter.com/bMtMcuntUK

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 18, 2022

Russians destroying wheat fields with missiles causing fires

New song about HIMARS from Taras Borovko (author of Bayraktar hit).

I think the word HIMARS is music to every Ukrainian's ear today.

english subtitles 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/9DROiE223u

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 18, 2022

This is good !

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_

Cost of Russian missiles

Bird Poo said:

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Do we keep inching closer to getting directly involved? Why are we wasting time with trickling increasingly deadlier weapons to Uk? Why don't we just go big and give them what they need to save lives? I don't understand the slow roll because it's obvious to everyone we want Russia defeated in this war. Are we goading Russia to attack our forces?

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It's a delicate dance for sure. Every advanced weapon system we've provided has been delivered in time-staggered shipments. Death by a thousand cuts analogy.

benchmark said:

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Bird Poo said:

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Do we keep inching closer to getting directly involved? Why are we wasting time with trickling increasingly deadlier weapons to Uk? Why don't we just go big and give them what they need to save lives? I don't understand the slow roll because it's obvious to everyone we want Russia defeated in this war. Are we goading Russia to attack our forces?

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It's a delicate dance for sure. Every advanced weapon system we've provided has been delivered in time-staggered shipments. Death by a thousand cuts analogy.

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Death by a thousand cuts… I think the release of our weapons is timed to inflict maximum damage to Russia.. release Himars any earlier and those ammo dumps are further back…. 300 km HIMAR missies are next ? But when? Crimea ammo dump and port would be huge

Bird Poo said:

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Do we keep inching closer to getting directly involved? Why are we wasting time with trickling increasingly deadlier weapons to Uk? Why don't we just go big and give them what they need to save lives? I don't understand the slow roll because it's obvious to everyone we want Russia defeated in this war. Are we goading Russia to attack our forces?

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"Why don't we just go big…."? We who? You?

There's lotta folks here awfully brave with other people's asses.

You can always buy a airline ticket if you want to get "directly involved" yourself.

Today's SITREP.

74OA said:

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Bird Poo said:

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Do we keep inching closer to getting directly involved? Why are we wasting time with trickling increasingly deadlier weapons to Uk? Why don't we just go big and give them what they need to save lives? I don't understand the slow roll because it's obvious to everyone we want Russia defeated in this war. Are we goading Russia to attack our forces?

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"Why don't we just go big…."? We who? You?

There's lotta people here awfully brave with other peoples asses.

You can always buy a airline ticket if you want to get "directly involved" yourself.

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Chill out smart ass. I'm not advocating anything. Just trying to understand the logic of slowly ratcheting up pressure on the RF.

fullback44 said:

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1/2⬇️The RF Armed Forces are moving train unloading points outside of #HIMARS range, this image gives an idea of ​​how this affects delivery times.

Conclusion: Transportation time has doubled, so they need twice as many trucks to keep up the speed of delivery.#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rntvt0K2PZ

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) July 17, 2022

Himars causing Ruskies to unload ammo out of Himars range.. Time for our bigger missiles ?

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The 300 km range would certainly easily push them back to the sea and really make their logistics difficult. I think they could be the game changer. They are going to need to be able to fire into Russia up north to achieve the same effect. I know there is a fear with that but it's war and you can't win fights with one hand tied behind your back.

docb said:

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fullback44 said:

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1/2⬇️The RF Armed Forces are moving train unloading points outside of #HIMARS range, this image gives an idea of ​​how this affects delivery times.

Conclusion: Transportation time has doubled, so they need twice as many trucks to keep up the speed of delivery.#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rntvt0K2PZ

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) July 17, 2022

Himars causing Ruskies to unload ammo out of Himars range.. Time for our bigger missiles ?

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The 300 km range would certainly easily push them back to the sea and really make their logistics difficult. I think they could be the game changer. They are going to need to be able to fire into Russia up north to achieve the same effect. I know there is a fear with that but it's war and you can't win fights with one hand tied behind your back.

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If they get ATACMS, they're not getting many. Those are strategically vital rounds that are out of production. Unless we spend a bunch of money to make more and renew our stockpile, I could only see some being given for specific targets.

JFABNRGR said:

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Logistics Collapse

https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e

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This may be the most positive thing I have read since this war started, Russia is about to be out of supplies amd this war will be over, give the Ukrainians some 300 km weapons, enough to take out Crimea and this war could be over by September or October… Russian soldiers will start defecting very very soon if not aLready.. the 300 km weapons will essentially shut down any hope of logistics the Russians had left …

Thanks for the post

Well I thoroughly share the sentiment, I want to make sure I'm not confirming my own biases. What's the devils advocate rebuttal that Russian logistics won't collapse by August?

Bargain bin versions of the F-35 (Russian attempt) are a swing and a miss.

Malibu2 said:

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Well I thoroughly share the sentiment, I want to make sure I'm not confirming my own biases. What's the devils advocate rebuttal that Russian logistics won't collapse by August?

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They'll throw more bodies at it. Who needs trucks when you can make conscripts carry ammo to the front a can at a time?

Malibu2 said:

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Well I thoroughly share the sentiment, I want to make sure I'm not confirming my own biases. What's the devils advocate rebuttal that Russian logistics won't collapse by August?

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Did you read the article ? If not read it … he's just predicting based on his knowledge .. I personally think August is too soon that it may be later in the fall.. some things need to happen on the weapons end on long range missiles for this to actually happen… lots of things can still happen but this guy is on to something with these logistics problems

fullback44 said:

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Malibu2 said:

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Well I thoroughly share the sentiment, I want to make sure I'm not confirming my own biases. What's the devils advocate rebuttal that Russian logistics won't collapse by August?

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Did you read the article ? If not read it … he's just predicting based on his knowledge .. I personally think August is too soon that it may be later in the fall

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I read the whole thing. It was awesome. I just want to double check it's not hopium.

Also, I'm quite concerned that Russia hit a HIMARS here.

Quote:

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Russian army launched 4 missiles at Odesa region: one shot down, 2 hit a military object and another a bridge over Dniester Lyman

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/18-july-russian-army-launched-4-missiles-at-odesa-region





The second screenshot above is from Denys Davydov's most recent video (linked above). It may be coincidence, but his video marks the same spot that was hit as the center of the circle. Note that his video came several hours after that strike, and he doesn't mention one getting hit there. I sure hope Ukraine didn't put a HIMARS over there and get it destroyed.

Give them 2 more Himars !

Quote:

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South Command: 7 Kaliber missiles were launched from the Black Sea. 1 missile shot down, other 6 hit a village in Odesa region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-july-south-command-7-kaliber-missiles-were-launched-from

They're really after Odessa. Ukraine's air defense systems need bolstered there.

Ukrainian forces destroy a Russian T-80 outside of Dementiivka, Kharkiv Oblast pic.twitter.com/FGivDjRBnd

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 18, 2022

fullback44 said:

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New song about HIMARS from Taras Borovko (author of Bayraktar hit).

I think the word HIMARS is music to every Ukrainian's ear today.

english subtitles 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/9DROiE223u

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 18, 2022

This is good !

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Their propaganda is top notch. Definitely were soviet and use the tactics in a digital world. Talk about a way of life biting you in the ass!

That 2nd one looks like a 300 km range which isn't the range of the HIMARS given.

Unless they have it and it hasn't been announced.

It could just be an eerie coincidence. The vagueness of "a military object" doesn't help that eeriness.

Waffledynamics said:

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Unless they have it and it hasn't been announced.

It could just be an eerie coincidence. The vagueness of "a military object" doesn't help that eeriness.

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I'm thinking they have them already … I would think they are gonna use them anytime now to take out those stockpiles of weapons at that big port in Crimea.. they are probably waiting for a couple of big Russian ships to come to port for refueling or weapons delivery so they can get some big targets as well as the weapons caches all at one time … take those ships at port by surprise

ABATTBQ11 said:

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docb said:

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fullback44 said:

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1/2⬇️The RF Armed Forces are moving train unloading points outside of #HIMARS range, this image gives an idea of ​​how this affects delivery times.

Conclusion: Transportation time has doubled, so they need twice as many trucks to keep up the speed of delivery.#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rntvt0K2PZ

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) July 17, 2022

Himars causing Ruskies to unload ammo out of Himars range.. Time for our bigger missiles ?

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The 300 km range would certainly easily push them back to the sea and really make their logistics difficult. I think they could be the game changer. They are going to need to be able to fire into Russia up north to achieve the same effect. I know there is a fear with that but it's war and you can't win fights with one hand tied behind your back.

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If they get ATACMS, they're not getting many. Those are strategically vital rounds that are out of production. Unless we spend a bunch of money to make more and renew our stockpile, I could only see some being given for specific targets.

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Maybe, we know that the next gen version has had a greenlight and is expected to start fielding production units in '23. ATACMS are relatively old and is burning us money to maintain and upgrade the stock annually. In all honesty, now is the time to start offloading them while they can still be incredibly useful IMO. The one rub I see in that idea though is China of course and a need for ready stock if they get squirrelly in the very near future. That doesn't mean that we could not survive giving the Ukes a fair number of them. A number that could truly make a difference in their fight. Strategically it would be a roll of the dice for us in terms of timing. If we earmark a significant portion of our aid (or the benefit of our aid) for a major push towards the successor though....

Food for thought for us on this level.

Eliminatus said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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docb said:

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fullback44 said:

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1/2⬇️The RF Armed Forces are moving train unloading points outside of #HIMARS range, this image gives an idea of ​​how this affects delivery times.

Conclusion: Transportation time has doubled, so they need twice as many trucks to keep up the speed of delivery.#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rntvt0K2PZ

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) July 17, 2022

Himars causing Ruskies to unload ammo out of Himars range.. Time for our bigger missiles ?

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The 300 km range would certainly easily push them back to the sea and really make their logistics difficult. I think they could be the game changer. They are going to need to be able to fire into Russia up north to achieve the same effect. I know there is a fear with that but it's war and you can't win fights with one hand tied behind your back.

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If they get ATACMS, they're not getting many. Those are strategically vital rounds that are out of production. Unless we spend a bunch of money to make more and renew our stockpile, I could only see some being given for specific targets.

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Maybe, we know that the next gen version has had a greenlight and is expected to start fielding production units in '23. ATACMS are relatively old and is burning us money to maintain and upgrade the stock annually. In all honesty, now is the time to start offloading them while they can still be incredibly useful IMO. The one rub I see in that idea though is China of course and a need for ready stock if they get squirrelly in the very near future. That doesn't mean that we could not survive giving the Ukes a fair number of them. A number that could truly make a difference in their fight. Strategically it would be a roll of the dice for us in terms of timing. If we earmark a significant portion of our aid (or the benefit of our aid) for a major push towards the successor though....

Food for thought for us on this level.

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Problem is there is no guarantee production will start in 2023 with global supply chain issues, and even if it does it may not be in substantial quantities. That's why I think they'll get a limited number if and when they do get them.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Eliminatus said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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docb said:

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fullback44 said:

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1/2⬇️The RF Armed Forces are moving train unloading points outside of #HIMARS range, this image gives an idea of ​​how this affects delivery times.

Conclusion: Transportation time has doubled, so they need twice as many trucks to keep up the speed of delivery.#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rntvt0K2PZ

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) July 17, 2022

Himars causing Ruskies to unload ammo out of Himars range.. Time for our bigger missiles ?

---

The 300 km range would certainly easily push them back to the sea and really make their logistics difficult. I think they could be the game changer. They are going to need to be able to fire into Russia up north to achieve the same effect. I know there is a fear with that but it's war and you can't win fights with one hand tied behind your back.

---

If they get ATACMS, they're not getting many. Those are strategically vital rounds that are out of production. Unless we spend a bunch of money to make more and renew our stockpile, I could only see some being given for specific targets.

---

Maybe, we know that the next gen version has had a greenlight and is expected to start fielding production units in '23. ATACMS are relatively old and is burning us money to maintain and upgrade the stock annually. In all honesty, now is the time to start offloading them while they can still be incredibly useful IMO. The one rub I see in that idea though is China of course and a need for ready stock if they get squirrelly in the very near future. That doesn't mean that we could not survive giving the Ukes a fair number of them. A number that could truly make a difference in their fight. Strategically it would be a roll of the dice for us in terms of timing. If we earmark a significant portion of our aid (or the benefit of our aid) for a major push towards the successor though....

Food for thought for us on this level.

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Problem is there is no guarantee production will start in 2023 with global supply chain issues, and even if it does it may not be in substantial quantities. That's why I think they'll get a limited number if and when they do get them.

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All very good info..sounds like it won't be many if they do get them

UPDATE