Waffledynamics said:
Have they really been losing their best, though? They've sent in a bunch of conscripts.
You are suggesting that Russia sending conscripts rather than well trained and well equipped troops is a considered decision and they have the option to do otherwise. I don't believe that's true.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2022-06-22/russian-troops-in-ukraine-face-extraordinary-casualty-rates-u-k-intelligenceQuote:
The Institute for the Study of War, citing the BBC's Russian service, noted that new Russian recruits receive only three to seven days of training before being sent to "the most active sectors of the front."
The Russians are sending conscripts equipped with antiquated equipment because they have no other option left for conventional forces. Over the course of the war since Feb 24, Russia's front line units and elite units have been suffering a larger percentage of losses.
https://news.yahoo.com/russias-losses-ukraine-many-elite-110931966.htmlhttps://sofrep.com/news/these-are-the-elite-russian-tank-units-taking-most-of-the-casualties-in-ukraine-right-now/https://www.newsweek.com/russian-air-campaign-struggling-ukraine-war-combat-losses-uk-1718828It's also very important to take note of the fact that Russian separatists fighting in Luhansk and Donetsk and other areas inside the borders of Ukraine are not being allowed to cross the border into Russia. They are boxed by the Ukrainians to their front and a 'friendly' Russia that is compelling them to fight to the last man.
The RF regular forces were wrecked in the February-April period and you can't replace them quickly. The Russians have increasingly had to rely upon the spring class of conscripts because they have nothing left to send that doesn't weaken their posture on another border. This BBC video about the 331st Regiment VDV, garrisoned 300km north of Moscow, takes a deep dive into how the "best of the best" has been shredded in Ukraine on the northern front before being redeployed to fight in the east around Izyum as a shell of what it was a year ago.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0cj3b7cNote in that video how they tracked a specific VMV airborne combat vehicle April when it was withdrawn from the northern front to Luhansk in late June. This is a vehicle from an elite unit that has not been replaced and is in horrible condition but still on the front lines.
You may discount it as propaganda but, the intercepted phone call described below indicates that Russia's Western Military District has already been depleted of troops that have been sent to the fight in eastern Ukraine.
https://www.ilovekyiv.org/the-elite-of-the-russian-army-is-almost-completely-destroyed-in-ukraine-the-sbu-intercepted-the-conversation/Same phone call transcript cited in a different article.
https://news.yahoo.com/armed-forces-ukraine-almost-completely-140900855.htmlWar is a battle of will. That will is normally exercised be feeding personnel and equipment into the fight and expending them in pursuit of a fractional exchange ratio that causes the enemy to lose
his will and quit fighting. The tyrant's trap is that they cannot stop feeding forces into the fight even if the fractional exchange ratio is operating in the enemy's favor because once committed to a foreign campaign the tyrant must win or lose his seat and probably his head. That's the way tyrannical regimes work.
In previous ages, the fighting took place along the battle lines on the front and by some sabotage to supply lines in the enemy's rear. Since WW II, the ability to strike deep in the enemy's rear areas with aircraft and missiles has been used (sometimes successfully) to try and destroy logistical resources and critical infrastructure. It is very telling that the most recent uses of theater ballistic missiles by the Russians are not aimed at military materiel but at the civilian population in Vinnystia and Odesa. These are attempts to break the will of Ukraine by turning the population against the government that is fighting Russia.
When a tipping point happens in a war of attrition it is almost impossible to recognize that a fulcrum has formed on what looks like a flat surface when you are standing on it. The tipping is unnoticeable at first and only becomes obvious some time well after it started and momentum has developed. The early stages of tipping feel exactly like stalemate.
Russia is trying to use the weight of their old military equipment reserves and conscripts drawn from a larger population to turn the momentum in their favor. Ukraine is using a combination of technology and better C2 that is coming from strong supply lines flowing from NATO countries. Putin may not stop until his hoppers are completely empty but I believe he is running his reservoirs dry to try and save himself.
