txags92 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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Effective fire support begins with accurate target identification / location.

If GMLRs are really having a significant impact, it means real-time observation of these positions is being employed. Deep observation is challenging: risky for people and aerial platforms. It seems to point toward (American) satellite dedication.

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Remember those longer loiter time drones we gave them a few months ago? I suspect that was to give cover for us passing direct sattelite based targeting info along with plausible deniability. " No, No, it wasn't us, they got the info from those drones we gave them!"

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Commercial satellite companies are giving them imagery for free. It's not as detailed as what the DoD, NSA, CIA, etc can afford, but it's good enough to see when you're building something new or stockpiling something outside.

Waffledynamics said:

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To play devil's advocate even though we know the numbers are inflated:

Ukraine has been provided with additional aircraft and helicopters, IIRC. Their supply at the beginning of the invasion does not mean that is their cap.

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And it depends on definitions. Is a bayraktar an aircraft? Is a quadcopter a helicopter?

ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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Effective fire support begins with accurate target identification / location.

If GMLRs are really having a significant impact, it means real-time observation of these positions is being employed. Deep observation is challenging: risky for people and aerial platforms. It seems to point toward (American) satellite dedication.

---

Remember those longer loiter time drones we gave them a few months ago? I suspect that was to give cover for us passing direct sattelite based targeting info along with plausible deniability. " No, No, it wasn't us, they got the info from those drones we gave them!"

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Commercial satellite companies are giving them imagery for free. It's not as detailed as what the DoD, NSA, CIA, etc can afford, but it's good enough to see when you're building something new or stockpiling something outside.

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Having the free imagery is one thing, but having teams of analysts evaluating imagery and data that is a level above anything commercially available is much more valuable.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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Effective fire support begins with accurate target identification / location.

If GMLRs are really having a significant impact, it means real-time observation of these positions is being employed. Deep observation is challenging: risky for people and aerial platforms. It seems to point toward (American) satellite dedication.

---

Remember those longer loiter time drones we gave them a few months ago? I suspect that was to give cover for us passing direct sattelite based targeting info along with plausible deniability. " No, No, it wasn't us, they got the info from those drones we gave them!"

---

Commercial satellite companies are giving them imagery for free. It's not as detailed as what the DoD, NSA, CIA, etc can afford, but it's good enough to see when you're building something new or stockpiling something outside.

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Plus, there's a lot of HUMINT coming from Ukrainians in occupied territory and special ops teams will be actively collecting intel behind enemy lines, too.

txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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Effective fire support begins with accurate target identification / location.

If GMLRs are really having a significant impact, it means real-time observation of these positions is being employed. Deep observation is challenging: risky for people and aerial platforms. It seems to point toward (American) satellite dedication.

---

Remember those longer loiter time drones we gave them a few months ago? I suspect that was to give cover for us passing direct sattelite based targeting info along with plausible deniability. " No, No, it wasn't us, they got the info from those drones we gave them!"

---

Commercial satellite companies are giving them imagery for free. It's not as detailed as what the DoD, NSA, CIA, etc can afford, but it's good enough to see when you're building something new or stockpiling something outside.

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Having the free imagery is one thing, but having teams of analysts evaluating imagery and data that is a level above anything commercially available is much more valuable.

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AI should be doing much of the initial imagery screening which would make for some pretty quick turn around times.

Nice interview: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/putins-pivot-to-a-really-big-war-in-ukraine?twclid=2-36birfdjh511dehvbxg7yxnp9&mbid=social_twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_social-type=owned&utm_brand=tny&utm_campaign=cm_paid_social_tny_paid_content_ukraine_twitter

Quote:

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For many years, the Russian military believed that they had a chance to win a conflict with the West, not because they have better technologythey knew that the West always would have better technologybut because the West, and specifically the United States, would never sustain heavy casualties like the Russian Army can sustain, because, to the leadership, the cost of life is different. But in this war, in Ukraine, all the casualties are not by NATO or by the American Army but by the Ukrainian Army. So even this cannot be played by the Russian Army. And that is why they think that they picked up a fight with NATO in the wrong place.

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74OA said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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Effective fire support begins with accurate target identification / location.

If GMLRs are really having a significant impact, it means real-time observation of these positions is being employed. Deep observation is challenging: risky for people and aerial platforms. It seems to point toward (American) satellite dedication.

---

Remember those longer loiter time drones we gave them a few months ago? I suspect that was to give cover for us passing direct sattelite based targeting info along with plausible deniability. " No, No, it wasn't us, they got the info from those drones we gave them!"

---

Commercial satellite companies are giving them imagery for free. It's not as detailed as what the DoD, NSA, CIA, etc can afford, but it's good enough to see when you're building something new or stockpiling something outside.

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Plus, there's a lot of HUMINT coming from Ukrainians in occupied territory and special ops teams will be actively collecting intel behind enemy lines, too.

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Which is why I listed it as an option (albeit risky to have observers snooping within line-of-sight to with PSS-SOF (or even GoogleEarth) and a radio).

Call me biased, but you want a good 10-digit grid for these rockets (especially if hitting hard structures) and enough observation time to ensure civilians are clear. With these strikes being reported from across a large geographic area; the simplest explaination is the likeliest: Space Force slipping notes under the table.

A long war will be very detrimental to the EU.

The case could very made and Putin is removed a d a western friendly leader takes power in Russia that energy shipments can resume if X% is given to Ukraine for rebuilding. But if Putin stays in power then they're in a for a long and cold winter. For which they are not prepared and the US cannot bail them out because our government is restricting the new development of O&G.

Plus as we hit winter and northern states shiver due to huligh cost of energy there will be a lot of domestic rumbling as we hit the midterms. The SPR is being sent to Europe, but it's not unlimited and when it runs out aorice spikes will happen again and current production will have to be split between domestic and foreign destinations.

TLDR: long war bad.

Kazakh oil was already in trouble. It discharges at Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, and as such has been caught up in war risks, sanctions, and boycotts. Now it's just done. https://t.co/gWwKjHdtEk

— Peter Zeihan (@PeterZeihan) July 7, 2022

Russia will shut O&G down to punish Europe in an attempt to get them to drop support of Ukraine.

This is going to be bad on a whole new level.

2 Fer.

txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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In this case it's to punish Kazakhstan for refusing to recognize the fake Donbas republics Putin created.

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And if it spikes the price of oil to Putin's benefit along the way, so much the better for him. The answer from Europe should be to double down on making life difficult for Russia in other ways.

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...and building those import terminals that Trump told em to so that they aren't single-source dependant. And build nuclear plants.

Some problems can't be solved overnight, but isn't an excuse to wallow in a perpetual position of dependency.

Today's SITREP.

Putin said that Russia "seriously did not start anything yet" in #Ukraine

According to him, Western countries should have understood that they had lost from the very beginning of the #Russian "special operation". pic.twitter.com/PZER6gZehF

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) July 7, 2022

General Staff of the AFU stated that #Belarus transferred airfield in Gomel region "under full control of #Russia" and currently there are "activities to equip Russian military base".

📰Oleksiy Gromov, Deputy Chief of Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the AFU pic.twitter.com/zisrHlomAG

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) July 7, 2022

⚡️Governor: Mayor of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, who sided with Russia arrested by Russian forces.

Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov said on July 7 that Hennadii Matsehora had been “arrested by the Russians and is currently in their custody.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 7, 2022

74OA said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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Effective fire support begins with accurate target identification / location.

If GMLRs are really having a significant impact, it means real-time observation of these positions is being employed. Deep observation is challenging: risky for people and aerial platforms. It seems to point toward (American) satellite dedication.

---

Remember those longer loiter time drones we gave them a few months ago? I suspect that was to give cover for us passing direct sattelite based targeting info along with plausible deniability. " No, No, it wasn't us, they got the info from those drones we gave them!"

---

Commercial satellite companies are giving them imagery for free. It's not as detailed as what the DoD, NSA, CIA, etc can afford, but it's good enough to see when you're building something new or stockpiling something outside.

---

Plus, there's a lot of HUMINT coming from Ukrainians in occupied territory and special ops teams will be actively collecting intel behind enemy lines, too.

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⚡️Luhansk Oblast Governor: Russian forces blame residents of occupied settlements for explosions in their depots.

According to Serhiy Haidai, Russian troops have started looking for locals who could have reported the locations of Russian depots to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 7, 2022

⚡️ Ukraine’s military destroys Russian equipment, personnel in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported on July 7 that it killed 12 Russian soldiers and destroyed a Russian Msta-B howitzer, an ammunition depot, an Orlan-10 UAV, and a tank.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 8, 2022

That's assuming we provided Ukraine with our newest extended range Harpoon (Block II+ ER). Harpoon deliveries have been classified as 'coastal defense' ... so probably not the extended range version. If so, that would put their entire Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol within range. To date, we haven't provided long range weapons - for example ATACM's.

Ukraine urged to destroy Russia's bridge to Crimea by NATO commander - 'Legitimate target'

Quote:

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"Now that the West has given Ukraine [sub-sonic, sea-skimming cruise] Harpoon missiles [with a range of up 200 miles] I think the Russians have every reason to be worried about Ukraine launching an attack on the bridge."

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Quote:

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"All bridges have their weak points and if targeted in the right spot it could render Kerch bridge unserviceable for a period of time.

"But if they wanted to drop the bridge that would require a more dedicated bombing operation.

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I think we're getting ready to see a real attack on the Kerch Bridge and also a Uke campaign in the South. This is from my amateur perspective, but let me outline my logic:

• Ukraine is getting longer range weapons seemingly capable of reaching and damaging the Kerch Bridge, like the ones your linked article describes
• There have been rumblings of Russian authority activity in Crimea, such as officials getting arrested even just yesterday
• Russia is starting to get more defensive of the bridge, including the barges mentioned previously as well as those smokescreens.
• Infrastructure such as bridges in Southern Ukraine have been getting sabotaged. This would further degrade Russian abilities to supply their Southern forces in the event that the Kerch bridge is destroyed.
• If Sevastopol is within range, then that is also a possible target that would cripple Russia in the area.
• Ukraine has been on somewhat of a media blackout regarding goings on in the Mykolaiv/Kherson region as they conduct an operation, however they are also not seeming to take a lot of territory back there. Could that be purposeful?

Again, total layman here, but these dots seem to logically connect.

Tactical patience is unbelievably complex and important. Attacking the bridge is a one shot opportunity and artillery and air attacks do not hold ground. Without ground forces to exploit the attack, the Ukrainians are much better served using their assets to further reduce Russian capabilities and setting the conditions for successful operations in the south. If the reports are to be believed, a single strike this past weekend destroyed almost an entire BTG. When they do attack they want the odds to be overwhelmingly in their favor. If not, they stand to lose not only the forces committed now but the opportunity to retake Kherson in the future.

The eastern battleground is similar. UKR is much more able to generate the combat power necessary for a defense than an offense. Offensive operations require more men (the 3-to-1 rule), more equipment and more resources than defensive operations. The defense in depth that Ukraine has employed to date allows them to set the time and location of every battle. Meanwhile, Russia blindly pushes forward and expending manpower and resources at an unsustainable rate solely to claim objectives that have little tactical or operational value.

That bridge will also be highly defended. 3:1 probably isn't enough and there'd be high casuality rates. If aircraft are used then what is a sustainable loss to achieve thr objective.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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That bridge will also be highly defended. 3:1 probably isn't enough and there'd be high casuality rates. If aircraft are used then what is a sustainable loss to achieve thr objective.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't sound like taking out the bridge would be done via ground assault. Would 3:1 still apply?

Wouldn't it be beautiful to see the bridge and Sevastopol hit simultaneously...

Waffledynamics said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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That bridge will also be highly defended. 3:1 probably isn't enough and there'd be high casuality rates. If aircraft are used then what is a sustainable loss to achieve thr objective.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't sound like taking out the bridge would be done via ground assault. Would 3:1 still apply?

Wouldn't it be beautiful to see the bridge and Sevastopol hit simultaneously...

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I'd love to just see us throw a bunch of Tomahawks at both and F them up good, then pull an Israel, shrug our shoulders and say "Wasn't us, I don't know what you are talking about" with a smug little smirk on our face.

Quote:

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Reports of audible explosions in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region. Smoke visible over airfield area

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/8-july-reports-of-audible-explosions-in-melitopol-zaporizhzhia

AlaskanAg99 said:

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That bridge will also be highly defended. 3:1 probably isn't enough and there'd be high casuality rates. If aircraft are used then what is a sustainable loss to achieve thr objective.

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Bridge would be destroyed by a dedicated missile or air strike. Ground assault would happen much farther north as a full scale offensive across a wide area to take advantage of the supply disruption. Basically, knock out the bridge behind the lines to limit resupply to troops in the south, then attack those troops en masse and deplete their existing supplies to push them out before the bridge is repaired. If at all possible, get within artillery or MLRS range of the bridge to keep it out and prevent counter offensives, but that might be a long shot. They'd barge to basically retake Crimea to get within range of even HIMARS without ATACMS rounds.

More HIMARS headed to Ukraine.

74OA said:

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More HIMARS headed to Ukraine.

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Looks like we are starting to get really serious about turning the tide of this thing. Time to send those murderous *******s to rot or back across the border.

docb said:

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74OA said:

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More HIMARS headed to Ukraine.

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Looks like we are starting to get really serious about turning the tide of this thing. Time to send those murderous *******s to rot or back across the border.

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Turning the tide you mean Russia keeping its current gains?

Alan Combs Zombie said:

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docb said:

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74OA said:

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More HIMARS headed to Ukraine.

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Looks like we are starting to get really serious about turning the tide of this thing. Time to send those murderous *******s to rot or back across the border.

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Turning the tide you mean Russia keeping its current gains?

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I mean turning the Russians into worm dirt

I think we are expecting the front to move east as winter progresses.