Quote:

---

Russian EMERCOM drill at the Crimean bridge

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/1-july-russian-emercom-drill-at-the-crimean-bridge

9 hours ago as I type this.

Quote:

---

At Donetsk direction Russian army attempting to block Lysychansk and seize Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway. Russian artillery shelled Lysychansk, Verkhniokamianka and Siversk. Russian aviation conducted airstrike near Vovchoyarivka. Assaults continue at Verkhniokamianka and Lysychansk refinery, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/1-july-at-donetsk-direction-russian-army-attempting-to-block



Based on yesterday's Speak the Truth video, it sounds like Ukraine is starting to exfiltrate from Lysychansk, so this looks like Russia trying to inflict as many casualties during this process as they can. Hopefully Ukraine is responding in kind and taking more Russians casualty.

Ukraine's special ops is hard at work inside Russia. SABOTAGE

Video of incendiary munitions used against Ukrainian positions in the Slovyansk area. https://t.co/TZoINnL9tv pic.twitter.com/NR1oYkYfFr

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 1, 2022

"The Russian army has multiple routes for supplying Kherson," @georgewbarros tells @Newsweek. Ukraine needs more long-range artillery systems capable of disrupting Russian rear area supply lines, supply depots, C2, and support elements to besiege the city.https://t.co/9iiRHFmjzD

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 1, 2022

Pentagon announces $820M in additional security assistance for #Ukraine. New weapons include:
• Ammo for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
• 2 National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
• 4 additional counter-artillery radars and ammo

— Joseph Haboush (@jhaboush) July 1, 2022

Quote:

---

Russian jets dropped incendiary bombs on Zmiiny island today

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/1-july-russian-jets-dropped-incendiary-bombs-on-zmiiny-island

That's Snake Island. What the heck are they doing? Did the Ukes go there? I figured it was now neutral ground.

Today's SITREP.

Waffledynamics said:

---

Quote:

---

Russian jets dropped incendiary bombs on Zmiiny island today

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/1-july-russian-jets-dropped-incendiary-bombs-on-zmiiny-island

That's Snake Island. What the heck are they doing? Did the Ukes go there? I figured it was now neutral ground.

---

If I had to guess, they left SAMs or Anti-ship missile systems behind when they evacuated and are dropping bombs to make sure the Ukrainians can't have them if they retake the island.

Any forensic scientists on here to give a clue on how old this civilian murdered body might be…..

executive summary- click for more maps

01/07/2022-Ukraine War Frontline Overview 🧵
Blue=Recently Liberated Territory
Red=Recently Occupied Territory
Yellow=Contested Territory
Explosion Sign=Where Battles Are Ongoing
(note all yellow areas show where recent battles are taking place) pic.twitter.com/hHWMH8R2ey

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) July 1, 2022

thread reader version

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1542984884293193728.html

Ukrainian M777 howitzers destroyed a Russian ammunition depot reportedly in Zaporizhia Oblast.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/UBjD3YeXLU

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) July 1, 2022

This is a couple days old but while not strictly a tactical it does give some insight into the paranoia that is setting in among Russian elite.

Igor Girkin invokes his FSB identity and questions whether the rapid withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan was part of the US “World war” plan to “untie their hands” ahead of a conflict with Russia, which got stuck in other conflicts around the globe:https://t.co/oW2Y4KcW36 pic.twitter.com/elhlHF84bh

— Dmitri 🇺🇦 (@mdmitri91) June 29, 2022

U.S. believes Russia used an anti-ship weapon in its June 27 attack on the Ukraine shopping center.

"This is not a weapon that would have been optimized for accuracy .. in an urban environment, so it's another example of how Russia is using systems in a reckless fashion."

— Caitlin Doornbos (@CaitlinDoornbos) July 1, 2022

Over the last month, Russia has gained territory equal in size to the City of Houston.

No doubt Houston is a sprawling city, but that's what they have to show by pouring and losing huge amounts of resources into a small area for 30 days.

Forgive my ignorance but an anti ship weapon is not optimized for accuracy in an urban environment??

I mean ships are not as large as shopping malls??

No idea how Russian anti ship missiles function but are they saying they can only be aimed/programmed so much ?

80sGeorge said:

---

Forgive my ignorance but an anti ship weapon is not optimized for accuracy in an urban environment??

I mean ships are not as large as shopping malls??

No idea how Russian anti ship missiles function but are they saying they can only be aimed/programmed so much ?

---

Anti-ship missiles are looking for a target in open ocean. They are programmed to go to a general area and then go active (so they don't give themselves away on approach), seeking a target with radar and guiding themselves to it. Missiles designed for land targets are going to specific locations. They are using inertial guidance, GPS, or something else to guide themselves to a specific point. If you fire an anti-ship missile at a land target, it can't effectively use its terminal guidance system because there's no tall ship with nothing around it, and it doesn't have the pinpoint guidance system of a land attack missile.

Without getting into too much detail, antiship missiles require different guidance hardware and software as they are aimed at large moving targets, typically at significant distance. Once they get close they are designed to seek and identify the ship, attack from certain angles, and can be programmed to hit at a specific point using the ship's shape and/or sensor signature.

Most antiship missiles are not going to be designed to hit a particular spot on earth using GPS coordinates as it would be a useless feature. Many antiship missiles have close cousins which can be used as a cruise missiles, but they have different guidance technology.

Beat me to it.

Gracias. That makes sense.

Circling back to yesterday's ISW tweet with the Newsweek article on the looming Kherson battle... as mentioned in the article, retaking Kherson is another urban meatgrinder that ultimately levels the city.

Is retaking Kherson really necessary if the ultimate goal is crossing the Dnipro and pushing west along the coast? Why not incircle/bypass Kherson and laser focus on securing one of the bridges over the Dnipro? There are only 2 bridges ... the Anatonovkiy bridge on the eastern edge of Kherson and the Kakhovka hydro electric dam 35 miles upstream. This seems more strategic than retaking Kherson in another dogfight.

I would imagine both bridges are rigged to blow.

Probably.

Secretly I'm hoping those river boats were for their special forces to operate behind the city. If they have the quiet motor technology, they could shuttle a company of well trained and equipped soldiers each night to the other side of the river.

AgLA06 said:

---

Probably.

Secretly I'm hoping those river boats were for their special forces to operate behind the city. If they have the quiet motor technology, they could shuttle a company of well trained and equipped soldiers each night to the other side of the river.

---

Yes, this would be very good. As difficult as it may be, the key to Kherson (Southern axis) is to relentlessly focus on destroying ammo, fuel, supply and attacking command/control. Widdle away at the beast and maybe some cracks in the armor will begin to get larger.

No doubt the Ukes are laser focused on these objectives.

Waffledynamics said:

---

I would imagine both bridges are rigged to blow.

---

Probably. But if so, they also cut their supply routes to their forces north of the Dnipro - including Kherson. Unlikely they'd blow the Kakhovka dam itself and the road/bridge may be the easiest to repair ... very short girder spans. So maybe first choice.

The alternative is throwing in the towel for all occupied territories south of the Dnipro.

Conflicting reports that Lysychansk is encircled or not.

#BREAKING Ukraine separatists say they have encircled Lysychansk: agencies pic.twitter.com/jE0s4roTAk

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) July 2, 2022

Quote:

---

Russian troops say they have encircled Lysychansk: agencies

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/2-july-russian-troops-say-they-have-encircled-lysychansk

Quote:

---

Ukrainian army: Fierce fighting in Lysychansk, but the city is 'not surrounded'

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/2-july-ukrainian-army-fierce-fighting-in-lysychansk-but-the

It is interesting that on one hand, one source says that Ukrainian separatists have encircled Lysychansk, while another says Russian troops have encircled it.

Either way, I'm extremely concerned for the troops in Lysychansk. They need to kick ass and take names on their way out, but they need to be on their way out.

I just don't know how you stop such a huge concentration of Russian troops. Is there any way to force them to spread out? Ukraine doesn't seem to have a counteroffensive that's doing the trick.

Arc light.

Quote:

---

Ukrainian military destroyed Tor-M1 air defence unit and other equipment in an airstrike near Blahodatne village

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/2-july-ukrainian-military-destroyed-torm1-air-defence-unit

This is near Kherson.

AgLA06 said:

---

Arc light.

---

Lviv is preparing to counter a possible Belarusian offensive in West Ukraine to cut us off western supplies.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 2, 2022

A large fire was detected today by FIRMS southeast of Popasna. I'm not sure why this area is burning, I don't see any possible targets on the satellite imagery.

(48.4853087, 38.5134490) pic.twitter.com/ydb21UiFWT

— Benjamin Pittet (@COUPSURE) July 2, 2022

Russians and their war crimes.

Quote:

---

Russian troops shelled Sloviansk with cluster ammunition: 4 people killed, 7 wounded

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/2-july-russian-troops-shelled-sloviansk-with-cluster-ammunition

TB2 video from the Ukrainian military showing strikes on Russian Tornado-G MLRS on Snake Island yesterday during the retrograde. https://t.co/GbgBkryms3 pic.twitter.com/oeGJJDK4Tp

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 2, 2022