Waffledynamics said:

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Agreement. #EUCO has just decided EU candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova.

A historic moment.

Today marks a crucial step on your path towards the EU.

Congratulations @ZelenskyyUa and @sandumaiamd and the people of Ukraine 🇺🇦 and 🇲🇩

Our future is together.

— Charles Michel (@CharlesMichel) June 23, 2022

What are the ramifications of this?

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Russia wants all of its peripheral states to be subservient to it.
Joining EU instead ties Ukraine and Moldova politically and economically to free Europe.
It potentially makes Russia less powerful.

Update: BBC

AgLA06 said:

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Maybe something. Not necessarily anything.

Here's a couple of quotes that stood out to me.

"Candidate status does not confer membership, which could still be decades away."

"Turkey applied in 1987 and remains a candidate. Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia have all been in membership talks with the E.U. for years."

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There is a whole list of economic, social and political standards required to join the EU. Turkey and some eastern European states either decline to change or are still working towards meeting those standards.

Ukraine will similarly have to initiate substantial reforms to gain full EU membership. The only "upside" to its situation is that the war has created substantial motivation to do so.

I read an article that said Ukraine acknowledged they couldn't address many things on the list until after the war stopped. Which defeats the point of them trying to get in to save them from Russia.

AgLA06 said:

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I read an article that said Ukraine acknowledged they couldn't address many things on the list until after the war stopped. Which defeats the point of them trying to get in to save them from Russia.

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The point of joining the EU is the long-term economic and political advantages that come with integration with prosperous and democratic Europe, rather than continuing as a vassal state stuck in Russia's autocratic orbit.

Joining or not isn't going to be what saves Ukraine from Russia in the short-term.

74OA said:

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AgLA06 said:

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I read an article that said Ukraine acknowledged they couldn't address many things on the list until after the war stopped. Which defeats the point of them trying to get in to save them from Russia.

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The point of joining the EU is the long-term economic and political advantages that come with integration with prosperous and democratic Europe, rather than continuing as a vassal state stuck in Russia's autocratic orbit.

Joining or not isn't going to be what saves Ukraine from Russia in the short-term.

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Also, if they successfully join the EU, that should take away the visa requirement for entering Ukraine. It's a little unclear what the visa requirement is for non-Schengen Area countries within the EU. Ideally after joining the EU, Ukraine would also at some point be admitted into the Schengen Area, where you wouldn't even need a passport to travel from another Schengen Area country. But that is a long way off for them considering the amount of corruption they still have.

I hope to visit Ukraine in the next ten years and would love to do so without having to get a visa.

AggieLit said:

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74OA said:

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AgLA06 said:

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I read an article that said Ukraine acknowledged they couldn't address many things on the list until after the war stopped. Which defeats the point of them trying to get in to save them from Russia.

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The point of joining the EU is the long-term economic and political advantages that come with integration with prosperous and democratic Europe, rather than continuing as a vassal state stuck in Russia's autocratic orbit.

Joining or not isn't going to be what saves Ukraine from Russia in the short-term.

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Also, if they successfully join the EU, that should take away the visa requirement for entering Ukraine. It's a little unclear what the visa requirement is for non-Schengen Area countries within the EU. Ideally after joining the EU, Ukraine would also at some point be admitted into the Schengen Area, where you wouldn't even need a passport to travel from another Schengen Area country. But that is a long way off for them considering the amount of corruption they still have.

I hope to visit Ukraine in the next ten years and would love to do so without having to get a visa.

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Ukraine doesn't have to join the EU or the Schengen protocol to unilaterally waive entrance visas for visitors from other countries. It needs to join the EU and Schengen protocol in order for Ukrainians to travel freely throughout Europe without visas.

Not sure how they'll get there. PATROL BOATS
Edit: The extended Danube Canal, of course.
[url=https://news.usni.org/2022/06/23/u-s-sending-18-patrol-boats-to-ukraine-as-part-of-latest-aid-package][/url]

Today's SITREP.

Quote:

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Ukrainian military intelligence reports Russian saboteur groups plan to blow up residential buildings in Mozyr city of Belarus to drag Belarus into war

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/24-june-ukrainian-military-intelligence-reports-russian-saboteur

Why would the Ukes do something as stupid as attacking Belarus? Or why the need for a pretext to war at all?

I know soldiers died, but I couldn't help smiling at that

That would be awesome and scary as hell if that were the product of a Uke Intel / IT attack.

Latest from Zeihan, not optimistic about late summer due to a lack of guns for the Ukes...

The Ukrainians would definitely not be that stupid, but the orcs need a pretext because the population and the military of Belarus is heavily against getting involved. The Belarusian army was sent to the Ukrainian border as part of "exercises" before the war, and when the orders came down to invade, the units in the field refused and turned on their officers according to reports early on.

The government of Belarus knows they would suffer massive desertions from their military if they tried to order an invasion now and the military would likely mount a rebellion against the political leaders. They were elected illegitimately thanks to (real) orc interference in the elections, and the people know it and aren't happy about it.

Apparently the orcs think that bombing a few civilian buildings and blaming it on Ukraine will whip up a patriotic fury that will cause the soldiers to change their minds and want to invade Ukraine. I think the Belarusians would figure out the truth pretty quickly and turn on the orcs and their own leaders in response.

Russia Finally Has Its Artillery War In Ukraine. But Can It Win?

Quote:

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As more and more combat units become ineffective, eventually an operational pause to reconstitute and regenerate hollowed-out units becomes necessary, with a skeleton force left to defend the frontline. If one side pauses before the other, that may create an opening for a well-timed offensive to seize ground with less risk of being swept back by the usual, often successful, counterattack.

Ukraine's combat power furthermore may increase over time as it receives advanced Western artillery systems and hundreds of thousands of 155-mm shells from NATO's deep inventory. Weapons like the PzH 2000, CAESAR, Zuzana-2, M777 and M109 howitzers, and HIMARS and M270 rocket artillery systems are more precise, quicker to deploy and then un-deploy to avoid retaliation, and have longer range than Russia's most common artillery systems. Those already in the theater are reportedly achieving highly favorable loss-exchange ratios when dueling Russian artillery. Their range and precision is already allowing the targeting of formerly safe rear-area logistical depots, headquarters, and railheads in Russian-controlled Donbas.

Thus, Russia's artillery advantage may degrade through the summer. Further along, Ukraine may begin fielding more Western air defense systems, anti-ship batteries, and armed drones which could reduce Russia's edges in tactical airpower, naval assets, and cruise and ballistic missile capability.

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Today's SITREP.

That's 2 x 6 = 12 launches in this action. Would be interesting to learn the targets of their first mission.

#Ukraine: What everyone has been awaiting for so long is now reality - a video of two Ukrainian M142 HIMARS MRLs firing guided rockets at the Russian targets. pic.twitter.com/QSXV1Q9glc

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) June 24, 2022

Ag In Ok said:

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That would be awesome and scary as hell if that were the product of a Uke Intel / IT attack.

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Doubtful. They'd just hit it if they knew where it was.

More than likely either it just failed for any number of reasons or locked on another piece of equipment (radar, jammer, or SAM).

Reportedly the first footage of American HIMARS MLRS being used by Ukraine in combat.https://t.co/06Eq038LkP pic.twitter.com/lf9Lx7PiiI

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 24, 2022

Burrus86 said:

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lb3 said:

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Russia scores an own goal:

This is reportedly footage of a failed Russian air defense system missile launch from Alchevsk, Luhansk Oblast. https://t.co/6ekiNna454 pic.twitter.com/DvHf1heAR8

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 24, 2022

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That's going to leave a mark.

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Damn that is one agile SAM. Sucker turned on a dime. Scratch one SAM system!

Nap of the earth flying. DANGEROUS

74OA said:

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Just stumbled across this Rudyard Kipling quote:

"Let it be clearly understood that the Russian is a delightful person till he tucks in his shirt. As an Oriental he is charming. It is only when he insists on being treated as the most easterly of western peoples instead of the most westerly of easterns that he becomes a racial anomaly extremely difficult to handle."

Rather racist from today's perspective but speaks to the longstanding problem of understanding the Russian mind.

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Kipling was very racist, but he's right that Russia has, is, and will be difficult to handle. As Kipling also noted:

"Over and over the story, ending as he began:There is no truce with Adam-zad, the Bear that looks like a Man!"

More on the patrol boats. RIVERINE

The best video of the day goes to missile launch from Alchevsk. Russian army hit the target pic.twitter.com/3ITrZlMKQm

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) June 24, 2022

Oh ****

lb3 said:

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Russia scores an own goal:

This is reportedly footage of a failed Russian air defense system missile launch from Alchevsk, Luhansk Oblast. https://t.co/6ekiNna454 pic.twitter.com/DvHf1heAR8

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 24, 2022

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Some hacker put that thing into "return to sender mode".

US #HIMARS giving #Ukraine forces range of 70km - "That twice what they have w/the #Howitzers we're providing them" per a senior US defense official

"From an examination of the battlefield [in the #Donbas]...they don't need more than that range"

— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) June 24, 2022

Not sure I agree here.

Waffledynamics said:

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US #HIMARS giving #Ukraine forces range of 70km - "That twice what they have w/the #Howitzers we're providing them" per a senior US defense official

"From an examination of the battlefield [in the #Donbas]...they don't need more than that range"

— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) June 24, 2022

Not sure I agree here.

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Yeah. I take it this doofas isnt including crimea since he chose his words specifically related to Donbass. Give them whatever it takes to send them back east to their own ****hole.

Agthatbuilds said:

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The best video of the day goes to missile launch from Alchevsk. Russian army hit the target pic.twitter.com/3ITrZlMKQm

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) June 24, 2022

Oh ****

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WTF?!

That's an incredibly tight turning radius to make it back to the launchpad that quickly at speed. Are we sure that isn't shopped?

Guidance failure, or control surface or thrust nozzle vector failure at launch. Stuck in a hard turn.

agent-maroon said:

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That's an incredibly tight turning radius to make it back to the launchpad that quickly at speed. Are we sure that isn't shopped?

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I've viewed that video 30 times if I've watched it once but only on my phone and it's well done if it's a fake. But like you, I couldn't wrap my head around the g forces needed to turn that missile like that.

It appears to decelerate at the start of the turn which seems non sensical. But that's when it turns towards the camera so it's angular movement relative to the observer would be expected to diminish a bit.

At first I was also thinking the control fins would be too small, the rocket too heavy, and the velocity too slow early in the flight to make that turn.

Then I looked up the S-300 and at first glance, it appears to have no fins and seems to rely on thrust vectoring for maneuvering. That, accounts for all those anomalies.

The explosion fireworks aren't from the small warhead, it's the solid rocket motor coming apart at impact/detonation and fragments burning on their way back to the ground.

I think it's real.