***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,075,051 Views | 48753 Replies | Last: 20 hrs ago by 74OA
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Can't disagree.
Ukrainian Fighter Pilots Call BS On Need For MQ-1C Gray Eagle Drones
Quote:

Two Ukrainian Air Force pilots, who recently spoke with The War Zone and other media outlets, have dismissed the value of a proposed sale of U.S.-made General Atomics MQ-1C Gray Eagle armed drones to their country. They also said much-lauded Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aircraft have become virtually useless in the face of more robust Russian air defenses and made clear that they are more interested in any plan that gets them closer to flying more modern Western fighter jets, like American-made F-16s. Their comments appear to point to a broader debate now ongoing between frontline pilots and senior leadership over priorities when it comes to bolstering Ukraine's aerial combat capacity.
ABATTBQ11
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What they need are cheap target drones to draw out Russian SAMs and HARM equivalents. I see this being a future tactic as opposed to using wild weasels. Let a stealthier aircraft or autonomous little buddy carry in the munitions while a cheap drone gets lit up to draw out the bad guys.
Ag In Ok
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Agreed. Unguided as well. It's like chaff with a motor and some degree of flight stability. Along the lines of the DIY RC planes. If the radar cross section is equal and it has some type of energy emitter (mimicking commo) how easy would it be to mask a wolf within a heard of dumb sheep?
74OA
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It's a longstanding Russian management technique.

When things go wrong, don't fix the problem, change the faces.

PURGE
74OA
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Hopefully, the Russians are approaching their culminating point. CASUALTIES
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74OA said:

CASUALTIES

"Casualties among Russian and pro-Russian forces are mounting at an unsustainable rate in Ukraine, British intelligence reports, raising more questions about the extent to which Moscow can maintain its current pace of operations amid limited progress on the battlefield."
As soon as Russia closes the pocket they'll try to establish a defendable line along the eastern front - some type of 'victory' will be declared and they'll dig in for the winter. Phase-3 then starts with trench warfare and artillery duels. Donbas 2.0.
74OA
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benchmark said:

74OA said:

CASUALTIES

"Casualties among Russian and pro-Russian forces are mounting at an unsustainable rate in Ukraine, British intelligence reports, raising more questions about the extent to which Moscow can maintain its current pace of operations amid limited progress on the battlefield."
As soon as Russia closes the pocket they'll try to establish a defendable line along the eastern front - some type of 'victory' will be declared and they'll dig in for the winter. Phase-3 then starts with trench warfare and artillery duels. Donbas 2.0.
I imagine Ukraine would then leave a holding force in the east to fix the Russians in place and shift to attacking in the south. They are more motivated than the Russians and are operating on interior lines with increasingly better equipment coming from the West.
Waffledynamics
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Ukraine has ceded Zolote for now. The troops there were at risk of being surrounded. Lysychansk is going to be a major battleground very soon.

lb3
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Ag In Ok said:

Agreed. Unguided as well. It's like chaff with a motor and some degree of flight stability. Along the lines of the DIY RC planes. If the radar cross section is equal and it has some type of energy emitter (mimicking commo) how easy would it be to mask a wolf within a heard of dumb sheep?
Cheap radar reflectors can be made out of 3 pieces of sheet metal fashioned at 90 degree angles to each other:
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

President Zelensky: Today I spoke with the leaders of 11 countries: Bulgaria, Latvia, Greece, Sweden, Estonia, Czech Republic, Belgium, Austria, Slovenia, Moldova, and spoke again with the President of Lithuania Nauseda. Expressed full support for the situation around the Kaliningrad region of Russia
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/22-june-president-zelensky-today-i-spoke-with-the-leaders
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Missile strike at Skadovsk port reported after Iskander launches from the site earlier today
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/22-june-missile-strike-at-skadovsk-port-reported-after-iskander

Looks like Ukraine is targeting some missile origins with their new long range weapons.

Waffledynamics
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Insulating Moldova with an EU membership.

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Not a panacea but targeting results may be interesting.
Eliminatus
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Things are not trending well for the British captured.

Aiden Aslin: Ukraine Briton told execution will go ahead - BBC News

Russia is absolutely known for reneging on their intended actions but I have seen elsewhere to collaborate that the men are being used as propaganda to galvanize and harden the Russian people. At this point, I assume it is probably going to happen. Benefits probably outweigh the costs in the Russian eyes.

Dearly hope I am wrong.
aggiehawg
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Eliminatus said:

Things are not trending well for the British captured.

Aiden Aslin: Ukraine Briton told execution will go ahead - BBC News

Russia is absolutely known for reneging on their intended actions but I have seen elsewhere to collaborate that the men are being used as propaganda to galvanize and harden the Russian people. At this point, I assume it is probably going to happen. Costs probably outweigh the benefits in the Russian eyes.

Dearly hope I am wrong.
Have the Russians given any reason why these POWs are being executed?
Eliminatus
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aggiehawg said:

Eliminatus said:

Things are not trending well for the British captured.

Aiden Aslin: Ukraine Briton told execution will go ahead - BBC News

Russia is absolutely known for reneging on their intended actions but I have seen elsewhere to collaborate that the men are being used as propaganda to galvanize and harden the Russian people. At this point, I assume it is probably going to happen. Costs probably outweigh the benefits in the Russian eyes.

Dearly hope I am wrong.
Have the Russians given any reason why these POWs are being executed?
Claiming they are mercenaries engaging in terrorist activities essentially. They were sentenced in a DPR kangaroo court for carrying out crimes against separatist and Russian forces and helping to train other "terrorists".

About what you'd expect. Good ole fashioned illegal war criminal label slapped on them.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Claiming they are mercenaries engaging in terrorist activities essentially. They were sentenced in a DPR kangaroo court for carrying out crimes against separatist and Russian forces and helping to train other "terrorists".

About what you'd expect. Good ole fashioned illegal war criminal label slapped on them.
So like the Wagner Group and Chechen Kadyrovites that Russia has used for a long time?
Waffledynamics
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Ukraine should respond in kind to Russian and Chechen mercs.
Htownag11
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Waffledynamics said:

Ukraine should respond in kind to Russian and Chechen mercs.
I can understand this line of reasoning, but morale people dont execute POWs.
SeaAg010607
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Your right. It's better to turn them over to someone who will.
Gradaggie05
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For a small donation you can help the Ukrainians and send a personal message to the Russians.
For just the price of a cup of coffee over a month, you can sponsor an artillery shell. You even get a photo to put on your fridge (or on Facebook).

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a40290620/custom-message-ukraine-artillery-shell/

aggiehawg
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Quote:

For just the price of a cup of coffee over a month, you can sponsor an artillery shell. You even get a photo to put on your fridge (or on Facebook).
nm
ABATTBQ11
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Htownag11 said:

Waffledynamics said:

Ukraine should respond in kind to Russian and Chechen mercs.
I can understand this line of reasoning, but morale people dont execute POWs.


Those same mercs are more than likely responsible for rape, torture, and murder because that's exactly what they're brought in for. They also don't qualify as POWs. I'm surprised the Ukrainians don't have a policy of killing them on the spot.
AgLA06
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aggiehawg said:

Quote:

For just the price of a cup of coffee over a month, you can sponsor an artillery shell. You even get a photo to put on your fridge (or on Facebook).
Keep it on your fridge. Put it on Facebook and you will be on a red flag or watch list somewhere.
by whom? Russia?
ABATTBQ11
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lb3 said:

Ag In Ok said:

Agreed. Unguided as well. It's like chaff with a motor and some degree of flight stability. Along the lines of the DIY RC planes. If the radar cross section is equal and it has some type of energy emitter (mimicking commo) how easy would it be to mask a wolf within a heard of dumb sheep?
Cheap radar reflectors can be made out of 3 pieces of sheet metal fashioned at 90 degree angles to each other:



The hard part is matching a real plane's profile pretty closely. It needs to be fast-ish, have a similar cross section, generate heat, and block UV. Modern seekers are pretty good at staying locked on by using multiple sensors and determining the difference between a aircraft and countermeasures based on multiple attributes. A flare doesn't cast a UV shadow like a plane, nor does it move as fast. Modern seekers can look for these things to tell the difference.

Even chaff has had to up its game because aircraft are flying faster than it, and many seekers use doppler to tell the difference between it and a plane.

AgLA06
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ABATTBQ11 said:

lb3 said:

Ag In Ok said:

Agreed. Unguided as well. It's like chaff with a motor and some degree of flight stability. Along the lines of the DIY RC planes. If the radar cross section is equal and it has some type of energy emitter (mimicking commo) how easy would it be to mask a wolf within a heard of dumb sheep?
Cheap radar reflectors can be made out of 3 pieces of sheet metal fashioned at 90 degree angles to each other:



The hard part is matching a real plane's profile pretty closely. It needs to be fast-ish, have a similar cross section, generate heat, and block UV. Modern seekers are pretty good at staying locked on by using multiple sensors and determining the difference between a aircraft and countermeasures based on multiple attributes. A flare doesn't cast a UV shadow like a plane, nor does it move as fast. Modern seekers can look for these things to tell the difference.

Even chaff has had to up its game because aircraft are flying faster than it, and many seekers use doppler to tell the difference between it and a plane.


We're not talking about planes. We're talking about decoy drones.

What started this conversation was the Ukraine pilots stating with Russia's built up air defense system in the east, attack drones were useless so they needed modern fighters.
ABATTBQ11
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AgLA06 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

lb3 said:

Ag In Ok said:

Agreed. Unguided as well. It's like chaff with a motor and some degree of flight stability. Along the lines of the DIY RC planes. If the radar cross section is equal and it has some type of energy emitter (mimicking commo) how easy would it be to mask a wolf within a heard of dumb sheep?
Cheap radar reflectors can be made out of 3 pieces of sheet metal fashioned at 90 degree angles to each other:



The hard part is matching a real plane's profile pretty closely. It needs to be fast-ish, have a similar cross section, generate heat, and block UV. Modern seekers are pretty good at staying locked on by using multiple sensors and determining the difference between a aircraft and countermeasures based on multiple attributes. A flare doesn't cast a UV shadow like a plane, nor does it move as fast. Modern seekers can look for these things to tell the difference.

Even chaff has had to up its game because aircraft are flying faster than it, and many seekers use doppler to tell the difference between it and a plane.


We're not talking about planes. We're talking about decoy drones.

What started this conversation was the Ukraine pilots stating with Russia's built up air defense system in the east, attack drones were useless so they needed modern fighters.


They're pretty much the same at this point. An MQ-9 is similar in size and performance to a King Air, and they're really not that much smaller dimensionally than an F-16. There are certainly differences, but it's by no means small or slow. Any decoy is going to need to match the profile of a full sized plane pretty hard to be taken as a drone or a plane. Otherwise, it's going to be seen as a decoy.

Attack drones are becoming useless because they're slow and have no real countermeasures. They don't have a pilot with his head on a swivel to see missile launches from the ground and (try to) evade them. That's part of why the Ukrainian pilots want more modern aircraft: countermeasures and human pilots onboard.

The issue is the susceptibility of even our aircraft to modern seeker heads. This is not 1991 or even 2003. The build-up of SAMs in the east would wreak havoc on F-15's and F-16's without a lot of electronic countermeasures we're simply not going to give them for obvious opsec reasons.

That's why I think what they really need are effective decoys and radiation seeking missiles to hit whatever radar is used to track them. The focus needs to be ok eliminating air defense assets in the cheapest and fastest way possible.
AgLA06
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Bayraktar TB2 drones are smaller than the smallest Cessna and cruises even slower. It's smaller than some RC planes.

It only holds the edge in altitude since there isn't a pilot.

https://www.turkishdefencenews.com/bayraktar-tb2-armed-unmanned-aerial-vehicle/



ABATTBQ11
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AgLA06 said:

Bayraktar TB2 drones are smaller than the smallest Cessna and cruises even slower. It's smaller than some RC planes.

It only holds the edge in altitude since there isn't a pilot.

https://www.turkishdefencenews.com/bayraktar-tb2-armed-unmanned-aerial-vehicle/





It's 3' shorter but 3' wider than a Cessna 152. It's smaller than maybe 1 (one off, custom built) RC plane, and approached in size by only a handful. It is still a fairly full sized aircraft and by no means small. If you want something to approximate that, you're going to be looking at a Cessna.
lb3
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AgLA06 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

lb3 said:

Ag In Ok said:

Agreed. Unguided as well. It's like chaff with a motor and some degree of flight stability. Along the lines of the DIY RC planes. If the radar cross section is equal and it has some type of energy emitter (mimicking commo) how easy would it be to mask a wolf within a heard of dumb sheep?
Cheap radar reflectors can be made out of 3 pieces of sheet metal fashioned at 90 degree angles to each other:



The hard part is matching a real plane's profile pretty closely. It needs to be fast-ish, have a similar cross section, generate heat, and block UV. Modern seekers are pretty good at staying locked on by using multiple sensors and determining the difference between a aircraft and countermeasures based on multiple attributes. A flare doesn't cast a UV shadow like a plane, nor does it move as fast. Modern seekers can look for these things to tell the difference.

Even chaff has had to up its game because aircraft are flying faster than it, and many seekers use doppler to tell the difference between it and a plane.


We're not talking about planes. We're talking about decoy drones.

What started this conversation was the Ukraine pilots stating with Russia's built up air defense system in the east, attack drones were useless so they needed modern fighters.
As you noted, the conversation was about getting Russia to expend their expensive anti-aircraft missiles against cheap drones. The weapon seekers may use multi-spectral sensors to counter aircraft countermeasures but the ground team 40 km out isn't using these sensors. They rely exclusively on radar to make the launch decision.
74OA
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More HIMARS.
74OA
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Ukraine continuing to blast Russian forces occupying pivotal Snake Island.
Waffledynamics
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What are the ramifications of this?
ABATTBQ11
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Russia is going to go full butthurt and probably declare Europe a Nazi stronghold
AgLA06
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Maybe something. Not necessarily anything.

Here's a couple of quotes that stood out to me.

"Candidate status does not confer membership, which could still be decades away."

"Turkey applied in 1987 and remains a candidate. Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia have all been in membership talks with the E.U. for years."
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