Nice overview of the problem and potential solutions. FUTURE OF THE TANK

74OA said:

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"The team of researchers at the Oryx blog, which counts Russian military equipment losses in Ukraine based on photographs sent from the front lines, says that Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost at least 2539 military vehicles and pieces of equipment since it began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24."

LOSSES

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total losses 4343.

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned.

Off my chart, I get 2594 on the big direct action stuff: tanks, armor FV, artillery (all types), aircraft (all types). The balance is made up of:

MRAPS, Infantry Mobility Vehicles, CP& COMS station, Engineering Vehicles, SP antitank Missile systems, HEavy Mortar, AA Guns, SAMs, Radars, Jammers, Ships, trucks.

The other 2000+ losses are still important to the war effort.

On pace to hit 815 vehicle losses in a month, using the last 24 days:

• 86 tanks lost
• 58 AFV lost
• 118 IFV lost
• 25 Artillery lost
• 5 jets lost
• 5 helos lost
• 18 drones

Thats roughly 5+ BTGS depending on how you make up with tank loss heavy, meaning if 10 tanks to a BTG this would be closer to 8+ BTGs lost, but the AFV & IFV numbers don't support that many.

I can see UKR needing ammunition but I also don't see that request that often compared to weapons themselves. The latest list is quite large:

1000 Artilery pieces
300 MLRS
500 Tanks.
2000 AV
1000 drones

I am assuming this is a combination of disinformation and negotiating tactic, wish list for half. I also have not been seeing the call for volunteer personnel. This being said get them the HIMMARS and anything else they NEED ASAP and quit ****ing around.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/vbbe04/the_adviser_to_the_head_of_the_office_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Here's the issue.

Start thinking about what those numbers from Oryx would mean if legitimate

720 tanks destroyed, abandoned, or captured taking out the damaged that Russia could have repaired.

That's 60 BTGs of tanks alone (12 per). Not to mention men for crews.

If Russia had lost that, the war would be over.


So while i've been watching the Oryx numbers closely and rooting Ukraine on like everyone else. But sitting here right now trying to put that into perspective I'm seriously doubting how that could be real. Especially since Russia supposedly still has like 90 BTGs currently fighting.

So now I don't know what to think.

The Russian Army has more types of units than just a standard BTG. If you are looking at a Tank Brigade, then you'd account for almost 100 tanks and a Tank Division has more than 220 tanks.

AgLA06 said:

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Here's the issue.

Start thinking about what those numbers from Oryx would mean if legitimate

720 tanks destroyed, abandoned, or captured taking out the damaged that Russia could have repaired.

That's 60 BTGs of tanks alone (12 per). Not to mention men for crews.

If Russia had lost that, the war would be over.


So while i've been watching the Oryx numbers closely and rooting Ukraine on like everyone else. But sitting here right now trying to put that into perspective I'm seriously doubting how that could be real. Especially since Russia supposedly still has like 90 BTGs currently fighting.

So now I don't know what to think.

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I was under the impression that Oryx geolocates to confirm their information before formally adding them to their numbers? Am I misunderstanding?

AgLA06 said:

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Here's the issue.

Start thinking about what those numbers from Oryx would mean if legitimate

720 tanks destroyed, abandoned, or captured taking out the damaged that Russia could have repaired.

That's 60 BTGs of tanks alone (12 per). Not to mention men for crews.

If Russia had lost that, the war would be over.


So while i've been watching the Oryx numbers closely and rooting Ukraine on like everyone else. But sitting here right now trying to put that into perspective I'm seriously doubting how that could be real. Especially since Russia supposedly still has like 90 BTGs currently fighting.

So now I don't know what to think.

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Oryx confirms and cites all of their numbers through photographic or video evidence. If you go to the site, they link pictures to each piece they're counting. Each of those losses is real and documented. Crews are another story. If they abandoned the tank, they may very well have retreated and are back in action in another tank.

They also have other groups and formations beyond BTGs that those losses could have come from.

A typical BTG is based on 700 personnel, but for this war most think they have only been staffed with about 500, due to observations of tanks being crewed with only 2 and AFVs without INF. Using the 500 number puts you right at 30,000 which is also what the Ukes are claiming to have killed. 90 BTGs left would equate to about 150 total in support of the war. Pre war estimates had orcs with 170 total.

I have not reviewed any of the sites UKR put up to show notice of KIA russians nor have I seen much info on POW numbers but I believe they could certainly have 30K dead.

Personally I tend to think the Orynx numbers are legitimate but I also would caution of them being low as they wait for or process confirmation pics or no evidence at all because there certainly is some overlap between abandoned/captured, possibly even destroyed getting counted more than once. To give them credit, multiple times I have seen them reverse individual numbers and mostly in the favor of the orc lost side.

Couple this data, with the facts: minimal use of manned aircraft ops, the return to service of T62s, reports of desertion, and their history of not caring about casualties of their own or the civilians of their enemy and I think their losses though hard to believe are real. It seems to me the orcs are willing to destroy almost their entire ground conventional army while relying entirely on their nuke program for strategic defense/deterrence.

For a long time I thought there was hope for russia, the same hope I believe Trump had for improving that relationship and reducing the threat to USA. I was wrong and the horrors of the Gulag Archipelago is just as relevant today as it was 100 years ago. **** putin wannabe peter.

Updates:
DW
BBC

74OA said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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For a long time I thought there was hope for russia, the same hope I believe Trump had for improving that relationship and reducing the threat to USA. I was wrong and the horrors of the Gulag Archipelago is just as relevant today as it was 100 years ago. **** putin wannabe peter.

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I think that has been the most shocking thing about this war. How brutish and generally hateful Russians truly are.

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Really? Earlier Russian conduct in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria didn't make a similar impression?

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I wasn't seeing man in the street interviews in Russia during those like I am seeing now.

aggiehawg said:

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74OA said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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For a long time I thought there was hope for russia, the same hope I believe Trump had for improving that relationship and reducing the threat to USA. I was wrong and the horrors of the Gulag Archipelago is just as relevant today as it was 100 years ago. **** putin wannabe peter.

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I think that has been the most shocking thing about this war. How brutish and generally hateful Russians truly are.

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Really? Earlier Russian conduct in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria didn't make a similar impression?

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I wasn't seeing man in the street interviews in Russia during those like I am seeing now.

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Not nearly as much came out in Western media for any of that. The stuff that did from Syria was truly gut wrenching. Worse than the stuff in Ukraine and that's bad enough.

aggiehawg said:

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74OA said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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For a long time I thought there was hope for russia, the same hope I believe Trump had for improving that relationship and reducing the threat to USA. I was wrong and the horrors of the Gulag Archipelago is just as relevant today as it was 100 years ago. **** putin wannabe peter.

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I think that has been the most shocking thing about this war. How brutish and generally hateful Russians truly are.

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Really? Earlier Russian conduct in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria didn't make a similar impression?

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I wasn't seeing man in the street interviews in Russia during those like I am seeing now.

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True, the coverage then wasn't at the voyeur-level detail we're seeing now, but anyone bothering to watch the evening news or read a newspaper during those three conflicts was shown more than enough horror to tell the story of Russian brutality--including plenty of in-person interviews with victims.

74OA said:

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aggiehawg said:

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74OA said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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For a long time I thought there was hope for russia, the same hope I believe Trump had for improving that relationship and reducing the threat to USA. I was wrong and the horrors of the Gulag Archipelago is just as relevant today as it was 100 years ago. **** putin wannabe peter.

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I think that has been the most shocking thing about this war. How brutish and generally hateful Russians truly are.

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Really? Earlier Russian conduct in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria didn't make a similar impression?

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I wasn't seeing man in the street interviews in Russia during those like I am seeing now.

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True, the coverage then wasn't at the voyeur-level detail we're seeing now, but anyone bothering to watch the evening news or read a newspaper during those three conflicts was shown more than enough horror to tell the story of Russian brutality--including plenty of in-person interviews with victims.

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That's the military though. My assumption was that the babushkas at home were unaware of those activities at the time with such media restrictions there.

But seeing what passes for Russian talk shows, and then reactions in the street wherein they agreed that all Ukrainians must be eliminated, yeah I didn't expect that.

Russia claiming to have targeted and destroyed depots containing thousands of pieces of western-donated equipment. No confirmation.

Captain Positivity said:

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Russia claiming to have targeted and destroyed depots containing thousands of pieces of western-donated equipment. No confirmation.

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Color me skeptical

74OA said:

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Updates:
DW
BBC

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If the russians are destroying the bridges that tells me they don't want UKR crossing them in counter attack and are complacent without any further advance west, at least at the BTG level......

74OA said:

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Nice overview of the problem and potential solutions. FUTURE OF THE TANK

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The tank used to be the queen of the chess board: a hold-your own dominant and critical piece. It's now somewhere between a knight and a pawn. Still not bad - but the additional dimensions to the game and its vulnerability to distant attack have relegated it to a supporting piece.

Russia would've been better off with a massive fleet of Hiluxes with bed mounted crew serves / recoilless rifles

One of the positives of this war, soon Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear facility and Iran's daddy Russia has their hands full.

The beginning of the end of Iran when that happens.

PA24 said:

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One of the positives of this war, soon Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear facility and Iran's daddy Russia has their hands full.

The beginning of the end of Iran when that happens.

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Interesting take here. Maybe now we just need the rioting in Hong Kong to kick off again or does that mean more covid.

Yeah I think it was a challenge for russia to pull off a parade.

AgLA06 said:

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Here's the issue.

Start thinking about what those numbers from Oryx would mean if legitimate

720 tanks destroyed, abandoned, or captured taking out the damaged that Russia could have repaired.

That's 60 BTGs of tanks alone (12 per). Not to mention men for crews.

If Russia had lost that, the war would be over.


So while i've been watching the Oryx numbers closely and rooting Ukraine on like everyone else. But sitting here right now trying to put that into perspective I'm seriously doubting how that could be real. Especially since Russia supposedly still has like 90 BTGs currently fighting.

So now I don't know what to think.

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it seems information given out by the official Russian defense agency is unreliable and informations put out by Ukrainian are just unreliable...


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/podcasts/the-daily/ukraine-war-intelligence.html

I don't try to get lost in the numbers. It is likely that this will go down as a conflict with estimated losses even a decade from now.

We know the Russians have lost incredible numbers that would have broken other nations already, probably including us. We also know they are still fighting. Russians are built different from us though which explains a good chunk of that. It also means you have to step outside your Western way of thinking when looking at them as a fighting force.

Not if they only manage to achieve a pyrrhic victory.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Not if they only manage to achieve a pyrrhic victory.

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Pyrrhic victories are still considered victories in Russia. When you have a mountain of flesh and a molehill of steel to throw at an enemy, you don't care too much about the deaths.

Pull your highest attrition units from places that aren't St. Petersburg or Moscow and just pick up your fallen comrades rifle during the push forward.

one MEEN Ag said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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Not if they only manage to achieve a pyrrhic victory.

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Pyrrhic victories are still considered victories in Russia. When you have a mountain of flesh and a molehill of steel to throw at an enemy, you don't care too much about the deaths.

Pull your highest attrition units from places that aren't St. Petersburg or Moscow and just pick up your fallen comrades rifle during the push forward.

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Their demographic profile suggests they don't have a mountain of flesh that they can afford to lose if they want to maintain the long term viability of their economy.

Kherson counteroffensive north west of centre:
Ukrainian forces are advancing towards Tomyna Balka and Chornobaivka.
Fighting continues around Kyselivka, Molodets'ke. And north east of Tomyna Balka. pic.twitter.com/fE2OlCsIMe

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) June 14, 2022

West Izium Front (June 14 8:30 AM)

Ukrainian Forces have liberated the village of Prydonetske in the Kharkiv Oblast advancing towards Izium🇺🇦

Ukrainian Forces are located in the large forest West of Izium and are least 10km from the center of Izium #UkraineWar #Ukraine #Kharkiv pic.twitter.com/NOd95fi4cA

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) June 14, 2022

Very detailed and accurate assessment of the artillery the Ukes are requesting.

Due to the 1/6 report, 2A legislation & economic issues, details of Donbas battles & the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine are not at the forefront.

UA isn't "losing" & the action isn't stalled. It remains a slugfest in the east.

Here's a new 🧵on equipping UA. 1/21

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) June 13, 2022

74OA said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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For a long time I thought there was hope for russia, the same hope I believe Trump had for improving that relationship and reducing the threat to USA. I was wrong and the horrors of the Gulag Archipelago is just as relevant today as it was 100 years ago. **** putin wannabe peter.

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I think that has been the most shocking thing about this war. How brutish and generally hateful Russians truly are.

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Really? Earlier Russian conduct in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria didn't make a similar impression?

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The country of Georgia, Donbas and the Crimea say "hold my beer"

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/14/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

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By fighting for a dead city, Ukraine aims to maximize Russian casualties, analysis say.
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As the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk appears close to falling to Russia, military analysts say that Ukraine's outgunned and outnumbered forces are trying to draw out the fight to inflict more casualties against Moscow.

Russia has been using its advantage in longer-range artillery to bombard eastern cities from a distance, leveling them and killing or driving out civilians, raising the question of whether it is worth the cost in Ukrainian soldiers' lives to defend them. President Volodymyr Zelensky has described Sievierodonetsk as a "dead" city.

In Sievierodonetsk, the analysts say, the Ukrainians' hope is that by drawing Russian forces into street-by-street battles, they can defuse Moscow's heavy weapons advantage, at least for a time, since close-quarter fighting raises the risk for Russia that artillery strikes would bombard their own soldiers.

"If the Ukrainians succeed in trying to drag them into house-to-house combat, there is a higher chance of inducing casualties on the Russians that they cannot afford," said Gustav Gressel, a Ukraine expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Still, the Ukrainians are taking a chance by drawing the Russians into street fighting, risking getting trapped in the city - especially as the last bridge that would allow a fast escape has been destroyed. Mr. Zelensky has also acknowledged the cost of close combat "in terms of the number of people killed, the number of losses."

But with Western weapons slow in coming, the Ukrainians appear to be calculating that it is worth the risk for now.

Although street fighting kills large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers - officials have estimated that Ukraine is losing up to 200 soldiers daily in battle - it also inflicts casualties on the Russians in greater numbers than uneven artillery and tank battles in the open fields.

Before the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian military had studied approaches to fighting an enemy with superior armored vehicle and artillery capabilities, including by drawing lessons from urban combat in cities such as Aleppo in the Syrian war.
. . .
These tactics were not needed within Kyiv, because Russian forces were repelled before entering the city. But Ukraine put them to use in urban combat in Mariupol, where Ukrainian fighters facing much larger Russian forces were able to engage the enemy troops for weeks.

Mykhailo Samus, the deputy head of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, argued that the Ukrainian military's dogged resistance had also bought its forces time, holding Russia off from advancing farther into eastern Ukraine as they hope that more shipments of Western weapons arrive. The goal, he said, is to "exhaust, or reduce, the enemy's offensive capabilities."

It is not clear, however, how long such a strategy can work in Donbas, where the largely flat plains favor Russian artillery, and as longer-range weapons from the United States and other Ukrainian allies are slow to arrive. While Ukrainian casualties mount, Mr. Zelensky has acknowledged that Russia has more troops it can use as "cannon fodder."
. . .

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I think Ukraine almost has to contest in order to keep the West backing the conflict. If it looks like Russia is going to complete taking the Donbas and Luhansk, and Ukraine is finally folding - then the support may dry up. That's a tough political calculation for Zelensky.

Today's SITREP.

GarryowenAg said:

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Very detailed and accurate assessment of the artillery the Ukes are requesting.

Due to the 1/6 report, 2A legislation & economic issues, details of Donbas battles & the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine are not at the forefront.

UA isn't "losing" & the action isn't stalled. It remains a slugfest in the east.

Here's a new 🧵on equipping UA. 1/21

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) June 13, 2022

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Subsequent correction:

Correction, not 240 but 720. I had a math brain cramp. Please correct that math.

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) June 13, 2022

Additionally, a lot of Army artillery is resident elsewhere than in the divisions. Most rocket artillery is held at corps level, for example. Wiki isn't authoritative of course, but it can't be that far off: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_United_States_Army#Artillery

US target intel is almost requisite. The juicy targets are probably beyond artillery range and likely protected from drone surveillance by EW, SAMs, and MPADs. We only gave them 4 M270 MLRS launchers with 43 mile range rockets ... so helping them find targets is the least we can do.

The #United_States will transfer intelligence to #Ukraine for strikes with the help of the MLRS supplied to it, said Deputy Secretary of Defense Colin Cole.🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦#UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/nkKyp1tgnK

— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) June 14, 2022

74OA said:

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GarryowenAg said:

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Very detailed and accurate assessment of the artillery the Ukes are requesting.

Due to the 1/6 report, 2A legislation & economic issues, details of Donbas battles & the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine are not at the forefront.

UA isn't "losing" & the action isn't stalled. It remains a slugfest in the east.

Here's a new 🧵on equipping UA. 1/21

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) June 13, 2022

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Subsequent correction:

Correction, not 240 but 720. I had a math brain cramp. Please correct that math.

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) June 13, 2022

Additionally, a lot of Army artillery is resident elsewhere than in the divisions. Most rocket artillery is held at corps level, for example. Wiki isn't authoritative of course, but it can't be that far off: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_United_States_Army#Artillery

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Definitely requesting significant additional artillery systems. Of course, the more effective path with less arty units is to nut up and provide the long range MLRS rockets. Ukes could hit Russian artillery from greater distance, hit Crimean airfields and wreck Sevastopol.

But we wouldn't want to reduce Putin's ability to slaughter civilians and level cities.