***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 1:47p, 6/14/22
AG
AGS-R-TUFF said:
Definitely requesting significant additional artillery systems. Of course, the more effective path with less arty units is to nut up and provide the long range MLRS rockets. Ukes could hit Russian artillery from greater distance, hit Crimean airfields and wreck Sevastopol.

But we wouldn't want to reduce Putin's ability to slaughter civilians and level cities.
Pushed my button. Hell, just give them a half-dozen long range rockets with severe target restrictions ... then leak to MSNBC and CNN that thousands more are on the way.
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docb
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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 1:52p, 6/14/22
AG
AGS-R-TUFF said:
74OA said:
GarryowenAg said:
Very detailed and accurate assessment of the artillery the Ukes are requesting.

Subsequent correction:

Additionally, a lot of Army artillery is resident elsewhere than in the divisions. Most rocket artillery is held at corps level, for example. Wiki isn't authoritative of course, but it can't be that far off: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_United_States_Army#Artillery
Definitely requesting significant additional artillery systems. Of course, the more effective path with less arty units is to nut up and provide the long range MLRS rockets. Ukes could hit Russian artillery from greater distance, hit Crimean airfields and wreck Sevastopol.

But we wouldn't want to reduce Putin's ability to slaughter civilians and level cities.
Makes sense to me. Should have been done already.
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2:03p, 6/14/22
AG
This is certainly good breaking news.
ETA - If true.
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P.U.T.U
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2:28p, 6/14/22
AG
I have seen several articles that say Ukraine needs to match the artillery firepower to have a chance. That is not the case since each side has different tactics and goals. Russia is trying to level cities and bomb bunkers so bad that the people in them come out. Ukraine is trying to destroy equipment and kill Russians. Yes it helps when Ukraine has more weapons but we don't need to do the cold war tactic of matching spending
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Get Off My Lawn
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In reply to benchmark • 4:05p, 6/14/22
benchmark said:
US target intel is almost requisite. The juicy targets are probably beyond artillery range and likely protected from drone surveillance by EW, SAMs, and MPADs. We only gave them 4 M270 MLRS launchers with 43 mile range rockets ... so helping them find targets is the least we can do.

I wasn't terribly concerned about draining the stock of Javelins and TOWs - they're killing what they were made to kill and Taiwan isn't likely to be a tank battle.

I AM nervous about depleting our supply of rocket artillery. The Marine Corps is currently shifting from cannon to rocket - which means the ammo needs to be created. There's still a strategic deficit, which means we go deeper into the hole if we hand out it to other nations.
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aggiehawg
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5:36p, 6/14/22
AG
I have a question about the blockade in the Black Sea.

There is no formal declaration of war by Russia, so why are merchant ships not allowed to be safely escorted in and out? Because Turkey won't allow it?
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In reply to Get Off My Lawn • 5:50p, 6/14/22
AG
Get Off My Lawn said:
I AM nervous about depleting our supply of rocket artillery. The Marine Corps is currently shifting from cannon to rocket - which means the ammo needs to be created. There's still a strategic deficit, which means we go deeper into the hole if we hand out it to other nations.
Throttling Ukraine on MLRS is mostly about being nervous about escalation ... not inventory.
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74OA
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In reply to benchmark • 6:10p, 6/14/22
AG
benchmark said:
This is certainly good breaking news.
ETA - If true.
It's true.

Today's SITREP.[url=https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-more-himars-on-the-way-once-ukraine-shows-it-can-use-them-in-combat][/url]
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:21p, 6/14/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
I have a question about the blockade in the Black Sea.

There is no formal declaration of war by Russia, so why are merchant ships not allowed to be safely escorted in and out? Because Turkey won't allow it?
Found this article (a bit lengthy) on some of the law related issues surrounding the blockade. The TLDR Version: Russia is violating international laws and regional agreements in blockading Ukraine's ports. No nations are stepping in to conduct naval escorts for fear of escalation and also because the waters are heavily mined.

Legal Perspective on Russian Blockade of Black Sea
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aggiehawg
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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 6:27p, 6/14/22
AG
Thanks. International maritime law is not a subject I studied in law school nor in prep for two state bar exams.

ETA: WOW, a Lawfare article? Actually doing some research? Ben Wittes let that one go off his radar.
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AlaskanAg99
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7:04p, 6/14/22
AG
Shipping also would involve Turkey and they have a major beef with NATO. It's not just as simple as demining or sending escort ships.

On the same hand, those claiming other nations will purchase Russian Oil. Well the high seas are the high seas. The USA insured safe commerce...but if we didn't, there are few nations with blue water navies that can protect commercial shipping.

Be a real shame if all those Russian tankers were hijacked....
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74OA
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In reply to docb • 7:50p, 6/14/22
AG
docb said:
AGS-R-TUFF said:
74OA said:
GarryowenAg said:
Very detailed and accurate assessment of the artillery the Ukes are requesting.

Subsequent correction:

Additionally, a lot of Army artillery is resident elsewhere than in the divisions. Most rocket artillery is held at corps level, for example. Wiki isn't authoritative of course, but it can't be that far off: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_United_States_Army#Artillery
Definitely requesting significant additional artillery systems. Of course, the more effective path with less arty units is to nut up and provide the long range MLRS rockets. Ukes could hit Russian artillery from greater distance, hit Crimean airfields and wreck Sevastopol.

But we wouldn't want to reduce Putin's ability to slaughter civilians and level cities.
Makes sense to me. Should have been done already.
Commentators increasingly seem to assume it is entirely on the US to support Ukraine.

This administration has already committed to over $40B in aid, including billions provided well before the war started while so many were dismissing the US as alarmist.

The Europeans are Ukraine's next-door neighbors and are equally responsible for coming to its rescue and some of them have delivered operationally significant aid that often seems be overlooked in the handwringing over what more the US should do.

So when tallying up what Ukraine wants versus what it has received, people's mental spreadsheet needs to broaden beyond the US and take into account the considerable amount of materiel sent by Europeans as well.

Does Ukraine need more support? Yes it does, and while it might not get it in the vast quantities it demands and on the timeline it insists upon, much more is enroute.

But if there's finger-pointing to be done in the meantime, it should be aimed at the wealthy western European countries who, outside of the UK, have contributed comparatively little.
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to 74OA • 10:16p, 6/14/22
AG
74OA said:
docb said:
AGS-R-TUFF said:
74OA said:
GarryowenAg said:
Very detailed and accurate assessment of the artillery the Ukes are requesting.

Subsequent correction:

Additionally, a lot of Army artillery is resident elsewhere than in the divisions. Most rocket artillery is held at corps level, for example. Wiki isn't authoritative of course, but it can't be that far off: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_United_States_Army#Artillery
Definitely requesting significant additional artillery systems. Of course, the more effective path with less arty units is to nut up and provide the long range MLRS rockets. Ukes could hit Russian artillery from greater distance, hit Crimean airfields and wreck Sevastopol.

But we wouldn't want to reduce Putin's ability to slaughter civilians and level cities.
Makes sense to me. Should have been done already.
Commentators increasingly seem to assume it is entirely on the US to support Ukraine.

This administration has already committed to over $40B in aid, including billions provided well before the war started while so many were dismissing the US as alarmist.

The Europeans are Ukraine's next-door neighbors and are equally responsible for coming to its rescue and some of them have delivered operationally significant aid that often seems be overlooked in the handwringing over what more the US should do.

So when tallying up what Ukraine wants versus what it has received, people's mental spreadsheet needs to broaden beyond the US and take into account the considerable amount of materiel sent by Europeans as well.

Does Ukraine need more support? Yes it does, and while it might not get it in the vast quantities it demands and on the timeline it insists upon, much more is enroute.

But if there's finger-pointing to be done in the meantime, it should be aimed at the wealthy western European countries who, outside of the UK, have contributed comparatively little.
740A…I know I'm not just speaking for myself when I say "Thank you for all of the great content and contributions you have made to this thread." Every time I check in and see your posts, I'm eager to read your commentary and click thru your links.

And I agree that many of the Western Europeans are on the back foot with respect to weapons and contributions. I think the main point of discussion isn't just about quantity of weaponry, but more so, the capability. From the beginning of this tragic, destructive invasion, Putin has dictated the rules of engagement.

Nuclear saber rattling has neutered the menu of supplied weapon systems and likely contributed to delays in commitments. All of the hand wringing over escalation has allowed Russia to slaughter thousands of civilians and displace millions more while the world tiptoes around Putin's demands.

Yes there have been weapons supplied and there are many more on the way. But at some point, the US/NATO needs to say, hey arsehole…

"Whatever weapons you are using against these innocent people…cruise missiles, fighter aircraft, whatever; we will supply the same to allow them to defend themselves."
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74OA
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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 3:42a, 6/15/22
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7:05a, 6/15/22
AG
At some point, the US will need to provide Ukraine with ATACMS. Ukraine has nothing in their toolbox that can reach this island or any other target in the occupied territories beyond 30-40 miles.
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Waffledynamics
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10:15a, 6/15/22
AG
Per LiveUaMap about 5 hours ago, explosions reported near Simferopol in Crimea.

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Waffledynamics
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10:17a, 6/15/22
AG


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Waffledynamics
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10:18a, 6/15/22
AG
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JFABNRGR
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10:24a, 6/15/22
AG
Good Read Up.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-709311
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74OA
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10:47a, 6/15/22
AG
Led by US, 50 nations now meeting to coordinate further aid to Ukraine.
CONTACT GROUP
CONTROL CENTER
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to benchmark • 11:42a, 6/15/22
AG
If they are getting the medium range munitions M26A1/A2 45 KM or M30 70 KM ranges for the HIMARS they could hit the island from shore, which is about 40 KM from a dirtroad. The 70 KM munitions would be much better for survivability against counter batter fire. The M26 looks to be an anti-personnel cluster package while the M30 is a precision guided high explosive.

Not sure thats the most strategic target at this time and probably better served by other weapon systems. Would not be surprised if they use some of their anti-ship weapons against.
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AgLA06
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11:46a, 6/15/22
AG
Someone help me better understand the benefit of long range rockets instead of artillery. Seems a lot more expensive, less ammo available, and limited by the fewer numbers of launchers.

Are they somehow more accurate than the extremely accurate artillery fire we've seen to date? Do they provide a bigger boom per shot?
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to AgLA06 • 12:08p, 6/15/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
Someone help me better understand the benefit of long range rockets instead of artillery. Seems a lot more expensive, less ammo available, and limited by the fewer numbers of launchers.

Are they somehow more accurate than the extremely accurate artillery fire we've seen to date? Do they provide a bigger boom per shot?


Long range for one. You can outdistance artillery and hit them when they can't hit you. Your enemy must also marshal and keep supply depots farther away.

Guided rockets can shoot perpendicular to the path to the target at low altitude and then change course to avoid giving away the launcher.

MLRS can launch huge volleys and then scoot and reload pods of rockets. You drop more ordinance at one time to catch more people and stuff in the open.
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74OA
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1:57p, 6/15/22
AG
Hindsight. No one wanted to listen to US warnings that the invasion was coming.

TOO LATE
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GAC06
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In reply to AgLA06 • 2:30p, 6/15/22
AG
Longer range, more accurate, larger warhead
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to 74OA • 2:43p, 6/15/22
AG
There was a retired Marine recon guy that was in Ukraine in Feb-March and he said the CIA was in Ukraine since December training the Ukes. If we knew something was about to happen you figure the Brits and Germans did too
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to AgLA06 • 2:55p, 6/15/22
AG
Less shock and impulse on launch means more payload and guidance options. Also, variable sizes of rocket pods may be equipped instead of a single barrel caliber and chamber. The ordinance is heavier per shot but the vehicle can be lighter when empty. Obviously salvo or ripple fire can drop a lot of ordinance on target in short order.

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74OA
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 2:55p, 6/15/22
AG
P.U.T.U said:
There was a retired Marine recon guy that was in Ukraine in Feb-March and he said the CIA was in Ukraine since December training the Ukes. If we knew something was about to happen you figure the Brits and Germans did too
If you recall, this Administration shouted warnings to the world from the top of its lungs for weeks beforehand and was roundly criticized for being "alarmist"--so knowing and believing are two different things.
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Aggie1
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5:27p, 6/15/22
AG
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10921045/Ukraines-newest-heroes-brave-Russian-defectors-joined-Kyivs-forces.html
Quote:
Ukraine's newest heroes: How brave Russian defectors have joined Kyiv's forces on the frontlines against Putin's regime to liberate their beloved country from his rule

  • Scores of Russians have defected to fight alongside Ukrainian armed forces
  • They risk severe treatment and most likely the death penalty if they are captured
  • But fighters say they see Putin and the Kremlin as a 'cancer' preventing peace
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Aggie1 • 7:06p, 6/15/22
AG
Aggie1 said:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10921045/Ukraines-newest-heroes-brave-Russian-defectors-joined-Kyivs-forces.html
Quote:
Ukraine's newest heroes: How brave Russian defectors have joined Kyiv's forces on the frontlines against Putin's regime to liberate their beloved country from his rule

  • Scores of Russians have defected to fight alongside Ukrainian armed forces
  • They risk severe treatment and most likely the death penalty if they are captured
  • But fighters say they see Putin and the Kremlin as a 'cancer' preventing peace
Color me skeptical, but this is great if true.
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Waffledynamics
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7:22p, 6/15/22
AG
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JFABNRGR
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7:38p, 6/15/22
AG
Crazy combat footage from overhead covering a russian attack on UKR trench. Ultimately the attack fails and it looks like the russians lost almost a couple of squads. Parts of video are edited out either for gore or for OPSEC making it a bit confusing.

Not sure how they made it across so much open ground undetected unless they crawled up under the cover of darkness and this is just after first light.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vczv01/ukrainian_defenders_push_back_russian_assault_on/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:41p, 6/15/22
AG
Probably means locals in the donbass area who were always loyal to UKR but spun to create discord and mistrust within orc ranks.
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Waffledynamics
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8:27p, 6/15/22
AG
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9:10p, 6/15/22
AG
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