***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,544,917 Views | 47727 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by 74OA
FarmerJohn
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The top objective for France is to buy steeply discounted Russian oil. So long as there is a war, that isn't possible. The second there is peace (or a ceasefire, close enough), Total is sending their CEO to Moscow again.
Not a Bot
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Not a Bot
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Demosthenes81
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Ag In Ok said:

So how does that group tie / relate in terms of training and tactics that found their way to Iraq?
Those found in Iraq were true believing Jihadists whose motivation was to kill in the name of Allah. The ones in Ukraine are not much better than a gang whose motivation is pay and loot. The killing they consider a bonus but actual fighting toe to toe with another military force is to be avoided if at all possible.

Same nationality, totally different mindset.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
74OA
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Another of the unintended consequences of Putin's war is the steady flushing of ex-Soviet armor and other gear from NATO countries to Ukraine which will result in an equally steady increase in modernization and standardization as those countries restock.

Thanks, Vlad!
Spinnaker96
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SIAP but didn't see it. Another Russian General off the board.

Spinnaker96
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Edit: apparent UAF aircraft reportedly shot down.

FamousAgg
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These generals better stop pissing off their underlings, their positions make keep getting leaked
Not a Bot
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BattleGrackle said:

These generals better stop pissing off their underlings, their positions make keep getting leaked


Two jobs I would not want right now: Iranian nuclear scientist and Russian army general.
Spinnaker96
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Update:

AggieLit
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Spinnaker96 said:

SIAP but didn't see it. Another Russian General off the board.




Shares a name with one of the 2 or 3 greatest generals in Russian history.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Holy crap. Zelensky visited the troops in Lysychansk. That is very close to the front lines.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/5-june-president-zelensky-visited-ukrainian-armed-forces
benchmark
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M270A1 and HIMARS are gamechangers. When Russia finally digs in, nothing will be safe 40 miles behind their forward lines of defense ... assuming Ukrainian drones remain effective. Expect to hear a lot more about Russian EW jammers and drone denial zones going forward.
74OA
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Casualties continue to mount. ATTRITION
Waffledynamics
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74OA said:

Casualties continue to mount. ATTRITION


I know we won't likely know exact numbers until a while later because it's an active, heavy combat zone, but I'm really curious about the losses of men and equipment in that Severodonetsk region. They've got to be high for both sides. I'm sure Oryx and other trackers' heads are spinning if they're getting any information and are trying to keep up.
74OA
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Waffledynamics said:

74OA said:

Casualties continue to mount. ATTRITION


I know we won't likely know exact numbers until a while later because it's an active, heavy combat zone, but I'm really curious about the losses of men and equipment in that Severodonetsk region. They've got to be high for both sides. I'm sure Oryx and other trackers' heads are spinning if they're getting any information and are trying to keep up.
It's a meat grinder in the east for both sides now. The real question being posed by Ukraine pressing the fight in places like Severodonetsk is not how motivated they are to defend their homes, but how long Russians are willing to die invading other Slavs. The only way to find the answer is to keep bleeding them.
benchmark
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74OA said:

It's a meat grinder in the east for both sides now. The real question being posed by Ukraine pressing the fight in places like Severodonetsk is not how motivated they are to defend their homes, but how long Russians are willing to die invading other Slavs. The only way to find the answer is to keep bleeding them.
Lots of reports that Russians are using proxy troops as cannon fodder in these urban meatgrinders.
Waffledynamics
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benchmark said:

74OA said:

It's a meat grinder in the east for both sides now. The real question being posed by Ukraine pressing the fight in places like Severodonetsk is not how motivated they are to defend their homes, but how long Russians are willing to die invading other Slavs. The only way to find the answer is to keep bleeding them.
Lots of reports that Russians are using proxy troops as cannon fodder in these urban meatgrinders.



Not to mention non-Slavic Russians are playing an outsized role in the Russian army. They're trying to avoid pulling from places like Moscow and St. Pete.
AgBank
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Waffledynamics said:






Not to mention non-Slavic Russians are playing an outsized role in the Russian army. They're trying to avoid pulling from places like Moscow and St. Pete.

Interesting. "Lessons learned" from their Afgan War?
P.U.T.U
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Since the Ukraine army is modeled after the US military you would probably see similar numbers as far as ground troops versus support. If they have 350,000 in uniform that means they have around 35,000 trigger pullers, probably a little higher since they don't have as much support troops as what we have. They will be pulling a lot of people that were not trained for things like infantry heading to the front lines.

There have been some videos of women who were in support roles controlling some of the more advanced weapon systems. At this point I think if you are willing to fight they will allow you if you are from Ukraine.
sclaff
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Overview in an interview with General Hodges

JFABNRGR
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74OA said:

Waffledynamics said:

74OA said:

Casualties continue to mount. ATTRITION


I know we won't likely know exact numbers until a while later because it's an active, heavy combat zone, but I'm really curious about the losses of men and equipment in that Severodonetsk region. They've got to be high for both sides. I'm sure Oryx and other trackers' heads are spinning if they're getting any information and are trying to keep up.
It's a meat grinder in the east for both sides now. The real question being posed by Ukraine pressing the fight in places like Severodonetsk is not how motivated they are to defend their homes, but how long Russians are willing to die invading other Slavs. The only way to find the answer is to keep bleeding them.
https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194

On GE I only measure 27 KM from russian northern LOA to russian southern LOA. Assuming orc indirect fire assets on both of these fronts, they should have had the capability to cover the entire envelope from both sides and much of it overlapped. UKR had to have been very clever in reinforcing the counter attack in Severodonetsk and may not have a choice but to keep pushing. What both sides do next will be interesting.

The norhern and eastern axis is basically the Siverskyi Donets river with the norther side covered in heavy timber. I don't think the orcs can push south crossing the river, but they can sure push north just like this map shows.

I am estimating before losses in this counter attack that orcs have lost about 7 BTGs since May 21st. Off Orynx thats 510 orc to 73 UKR assets. I am betting another 1-2 lost in Severodonetsk as well. Hopefully the M270/HIMARS future delivery PR is all part of the recent counterintelligence and those assets are already in place along the M03 highway as they could effectively engage orcs on all 3 axis in this area.

Still ongoing sabotage in russia along with anti war efforts. I think were getting close to seeing the end of orc advances followed by meatgrinding attrition of how bad orcs want to stay. Orc actions at Severodonetsk after being counter attacked should set the tone of what to expect up and down the rest of the FLOT.
Faustus
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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/06/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

. . .
Guerilla attacks signal rising resistance to the Russian occupation in southern Ukraine
. . .
The Kremlin-backed mayor of the Ukrainian town of Enerhodarwas standing on his mother's porch when a powerful blast struck, leaving him critically wounded. A week later, about 75 miles away, a car packed with explosives rocked the office of another Russian-appointed official in the occupied southern city of Melitopol.

In a rarity, both Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed the blasts, which struck deep inside Russian-controlled territory. And both explosions appeared to be the work of what analysts say is a growing partisan resistance movement one fueled by increasingly brutal Russian repression and worsening humanitarian conditions.

By their very nature, the clandestine activities of any insurgency are murky and often impossible to verify independently. It is as much in the interest of Ukrainians to play up talk of rebellion as it is for Russians to play it down.

But the explosion that injured the Enerhodar mayor, Andrei Shevchik, is one of more than a dozen high-profile attacks in recent weeks that analysts say indicate increased partisan activity aimed at Russian occupation forces in the Kherson and Zaporizka regions of southern Ukraine.
. . .
Alexander Motyl, a historian and Ukraine expert at Rutgers University, has scoured publicly available statements about possible insurgent activity. He said that the data suggests it is growing.

"It is, of course, possible that Ukrainian special forces may have been involved in some of these actions; it is also likely that the data are incomplete," he wrote for the online journal 1945. "Even so, the number of guerrilla actions is impressive and bespeaks a trend toward ever-greater partisan activity."

The explosion in Enerhodar and the intrigue that has followed illustrate how Russian efforts to combat insurgency might be deepening the resolve of the partisans.

Enerhodar had a population of 50,000 before the war and was home to many of the people who work at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, Europe's largest. Residents erected wooden barricades on the road leading into the town in the first week of the war but they proved no match for Russian tanks. Russia took control of the town and named Mr. Shevchik mayor.

Then came the blast, which Russia's RIA Novosti news agency reported on May 22, citing an emergency services source in the city. Ukrainian officials confirmed the incident from their own sources and said that it appeared that the mayor was targeted.

Dmytro Orlov, whom Ukraine recognizes as the legitimate mayor of Enerhodar, wrote on Telegram that Russians are trying to tackle the budding insurgency by targeting regular civilians. He said that "the number of abductions of locals has increased significantly" since the explosion involving Mr. Shevchik, and that the humanitarian crisis has worsened.

There is almost no Ukrainian currency left in Enerhodar, Mr. Orlov said, adding that since the occupied forces are trying to make Russia's ruble the only currency, prices for everyday household products have climbed "sky-high." Reports of Russian soldiers looting mostly abandoned homes are on the rise, while communications in and out of the city have been severed, he said.

All this, Mr. Orlov said, will cause the ranks of the partisans to grow. "Even those citizens who had a neutral attitude to the invaders in the beginning are starting to show dissatisfaction with the Russian occupation," he said.

It appears Mr. Orlov is not alone in thinking that partisans will continue to pose a threat to Russia's proxies.

Mr. Shevchik's Russia-appointed replacement, Ruslan Kirpichov erected concrete blast walls outside the hotel where he is living, according to Energoatom, the Ukrainian state enterprise responsible for operating the town's power stations. It posted a photo of the barricades on its Telegram channel.
. . .
74OA
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benchmark said:

74OA said:

It's a meat grinder in the east for both sides now. The real question being posed by Ukraine pressing the fight in places like Severodonetsk is not how motivated they are to defend their homes, but how long Russians are willing to die invading other Slavs. The only way to find the answer is to keep bleeding them.
Lots of reports that Russians are using proxy troops as cannon fodder in these urban meatgrinders.

Yep, and that may be a leading indicator that the Russians are approaching their tolerance level for casualties. PROXIES
Rossticus
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As a point of clarification, Ukes getting these from the Dutch. Germany refusing to sell because Germany is… well… you know.


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"This is how Rubizhne "liberated" from Ukraine looks like. How good it became, not like under the 'Nazis'…"
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