You're not going to see a negotiated peace. Ukraine is going to fight until Russia leaves or they've lost enough that Russia runs over them.

No. Russia will not use nukes. They will threaten to use nukes to force the behavior they want from frightened, weak willed politicians. The end game is for Ukraine to retain their national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia told them to surrender to Russia devouring them. Ukraine said "come and take it".

Rossticus said:

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Today one of the most famous Wagner mercenary, nicknamed "Vaha", was killed in Ukraine. He fought in Donbass in 2014-16 (where he executed prisoners of war), but also in Libya & Syria. https://t.co/rmE1Rm9lC9 pic.twitter.com/d7TwmJy7aB

— QalaatM (@QalaatM) June 5, 2022

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Dude looks straight up super villain from a Bond movie or something.

sanangelo said:

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Seems like the news from Ukraine is starting to note that Ukraine is bogged down with entrenched Russian artillery on the eastern part of the country. It is as if, it's time to negotiate a peace deal as the Ukrainians are losing 100 soldiers per day...

Also, this popped up on Drudge. a UK Express piece quoting some Putin advisor and political scientist that more weapons sent by the West to aid Ukraine will end in nculear war and WW3.

Quote:

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"But most likely they will do it (supply weapons to UKR) anyway. And that will lead to WW3.

"Then we're being told 'calm down, comrades, everything will be alright'.

"Those guys will send weapons and so will others.

"They will most likely try to use them. A common man asks 'What happens next?'. Next comes WW3. The nuclear war is coming, that's all.

"There will be a nuclear war."

Source UK Express.

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What's the end game here? Is Ukraine really bogged down badly in the east? Will Russia use nukes?

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Ukraine made significant gains in Severodonetsk over the weekend so I wouldn't say that they're bogged down.

It's just hard to dislodge Russia from fortified positions, some of which they have occupied since 2014.

What's interesting is that Putin had dictated that Severodonetsk be taken or surrounded by June 10th. The clock is ticking on some Russian general's future and they were losing ground over the weekend.

P.U.T.U said:

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Since the Ukraine army is modeled after the US military you would probably see similar numbers as far as ground troops versus support. If they have 350,000 in uniform that means they have around 35,000 trigger pullers, probably a little higher since they don't have as much support troops as what we have. They will be pulling a lot of people that were not trained for things like infantry heading to the front lines.

There have been some videos of women who were in support roles controlling some of the more advanced weapon systems. At this point I think if you are willing to fight they will allow you if you are from Ukraine.

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I believe that the post-Feb 24 combat experience within the Ukrainian military overshadows almost all of the pre-combat training they had (which served them well!). They may be modeled after the US military but no fighting force in world basks in the luxuriant ratio of "tail to tooth" logistics support enjoyed by the US. They Ukrainian army is also much more infantry centric that the US which tends to be more reliant on heavy platforms.

The Ukrainians today are much like 1st Marine Division at about December 1942 after they had been fighting for five months on Guadalcanal. Training in the US before deployment helped them survive first contact with the Japanese army but the fighting on the island was significantly different from both peacetime training and the Banana wars. Guadalcanal also provided a lesson that the Ukrainians have come to appreciate which is that there are no rear areas i.e. there is risk of attack anywhere

My uncle told me that as a 2LT in the 101st Abn commissioned in 1959 his platoon sergeant was always a bit critical of the training standards because the best training for combat is combat: "Sir, the Korean War was good training. We didn't simulate nothing!"

Rossticus said:

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Today one of the most famous Wagner mercenary, nicknamed "Vaha", was killed in Ukraine. He fought in Donbass in 2014-16 (where he executed prisoners of war), but also in Libya & Syria. https://t.co/rmE1Rm9lC9 pic.twitter.com/d7TwmJy7aB

— QalaatM (@QalaatM) June 5, 2022

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That guy looks like a mongoloid

Straight Talk said:

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How far from Ukrainian controlled territory to the Crimean coast? If they acquire missiles that can reach there? Crimea is not Russia, right?

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Only russia considers Crimea russian.

AgLA06 said:

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lb3 said:

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This feels different from other instances of Russia using irregulars to probe for weaknesses. The Ukranian foreign legion kicked their arsses here and now Russia is trying to salvage this mess.

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Sure.

But everyone knew that was going to be a meat grinder including Russia.

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Exactly why I think this isn't necessarily about Russia being near a breaking point. They don't care about the separatists, so they'll use them first anyway. Heck, how many Russians are even trigger pullers in this?

Waffledynamics said:

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Exactly why I think this isn't necessarily about Russia being near a breaking point. They don't care about the separatists, so they'll use them first anyway. Heck, how many Russians are even trigger pullers in this?

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Agree, but sometime soon Russia will start to dig in and attempt to hold their new 500 mile border and an unfriendly area the size of Tennessee. Also sometime soon, Ukraine will be able to target 50% of this occupied territory with accurate long range artillery and HIMARS. This phase of the war may last much longer and eventually push Russia closer to a breaking point.