The Prime Minister of Finland visited Ukraine for the first time
🗣 "These are very important, indirect signals of support, especially for the Ukrainian people, our people, who see that they are not alone in the difficult events of the year," said Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/6r4Y2AN4YC

— Mateusz Sobieraj (@MateuszSobiera3) May 26, 2022

UPDATE: For anyone who is curious why Finland would want to join NATO, I think the look on Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s face as she tours the destruction left by Russia in Ukraine says everything you need to know. pic.twitter.com/Dmn3MnygXR

— Tim McMillan (@LtTimMcMillan) May 26, 2022

Russia using food as blackmail, too.

74OA said:

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Russia using food as blackmail, too.

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We're blessed with relatively large amounts of arable land, and the best, most advanced farmers on the planet, but I weep for the countries that are about to enter, or already in a horrible food crisis.

No wonder Turkey is pushing back against NATO. Russia is holding food over their head.

And this is why WWIII is on the table. It may not be direct action due to Russia, but civil unrest and countries going to war with their neighbor is definitely a possibility.

74OA said:

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Not shown in this graph ... wheat is 30% of the avg daily caloric intake in Egypt.

Russia is going to fight like their mascot, bears just sit there and maul each other until one dies.

The Javelin is awesome and flexible but the cost and due to that not many countries have them. You can airburst them which will be helpful with both sides starting to trench in.

The javelin is such an amazing weapon.

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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74OA said:

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Russia using food as blackmail, too.

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Well in the unlikely to ever happen category…

The US and the UK should announce that they are sending in Naval Armadas to provide safe passage out of the Black Sea for this prebought grain to it's rightful destination. And if any Russian vessel interferes with this mission, they will find themselves reunited with the Moskva.

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The Black Sea is closed to foreign warships. I don't think we would go to war against a NATO country to open the ports in Odessa.

UPDATE

We could tell them that commercial shipping is under our protection and that any attack will be met in kind, up to and including the destruction of vessels and port facilities using aircraft or land based missiles. Without the Moskva, their anti-aircraft range is fairly limited from a naval perspective. Subs would be much harder to defend against, but we know where they live. It's just a matter of time until they go home.

Those really could be game changers depending on the munitions sent.

This is incredible.

Scenes from Mariupol. Mobile propaganda trucks driving around the ruins telling everyone of the great Russian future.

I just don't know what to say..incredible.. pic.twitter.com/VaJ10bQgZK

— Expat in Kyiv (@expatua) May 26, 2022

What the ****. This is straight up dystopian

#Ukraine: HQ Video of the French CAESAR 155mm self-propelled howitzer in the hands of the Ukrainian Army. 12 of these systems should now be in use. pic.twitter.com/t92u7rUBbl

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 25, 2022

Russia still has an unreal arsenal of artillery, hope France gives them as much as they can. These look incredible

CondensedFoggyAggie said:

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English speaking UKR volunteers (can hear Brit, US and possibly Canadian voices) firing RGW90 antitank weapon at Russian armour. Date/location unknown although video is recent. pic.twitter.com/CRWQD5wlHD

— D.Emery (@DemeryUK) May 27, 2022

The realism, and the danger is surreal. Take care of yourself guys.

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Were they too close for the weapon to arm itself?

CondensedFoggyAggie said:

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#Ukraine: HQ Video of the French CAESAR 155mm self-propelled howitzer in the hands of the Ukrainian Army. 12 of these systems should now be in use. pic.twitter.com/t92u7rUBbl

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 25, 2022

Russia still has an unreal arsenal of artillery, hope France gives them as much as they can. These look incredible

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The Caesar is a great weapon. It has a 50 caliber length tube and can "shoot & scoot" much faster than towed howitzers such as the M777 which has only a 40 caliber length tube. Caesars also carry their basic load of ammo on the vehicle. They can fire the first round within about two minutes of when the wheels stop turning and it can displace in less than a minute after the last round is fired.

My personal belief is that the only reason the Marine Corps didn't buy a wheeled gun like the Caesar 20 years ago is because they could not embark it on a C-130 or underneath and Osprey. That's kind of a weak justification when you consider that neither a C-130 nor an Osprey can lift the truck that tows an M777. What good is air transport of a gun if you can't also air transport the ammo and prime mover with it?

Great thread read on Donbas front if you have Twitter. Unfortunately I don't know how to do that roll up that some of y'all do.

There seem to be two completely different narratives emerging about the Battle of the Donbas, one on the micro level and one from the larger perspective, and its fascinating to see the differences. Thought I would try and summarize.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 27, 2022

Just paste the URL for the Twitter thread into threadreaderapp.com.

CondensedFoggyAggie said:

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74OA said:

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Russia using food as blackmail, too.

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We're blessed with relatively large amounts of arable land, and the best, most advanced farmers on the planet, but I weep for the countries that are about to enter, or already in a horrible food crisis.

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The Economist: "Russia and Ukraine supply 28% of globally traded wheat, 29% of the barley, 15% of the maize and 75% of the sunflower oil. Russia and Ukraine contribute about half the cereals imported by Lebanon and Tunisia; for Libya and Egypt the figure is two-thirds. Ukraine's food exports provide the calories to feed 400M people."

In combination with a terrible harvest last year in China, an ongoing extreme heatwave in India and low seasonal rains in the US and Europe this spring, it's building into a perfect storm for poor countries dependent on grain imports to survive.

Russia is unfortunately rocking and rolling in the Donbas right now. They took Lyman and are seriously threatening the whole thing. I don't recall if it is elevated and well defensible.

If the 7:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian troops is legitimate, then what realistically can Ukraine do to stop the Russian advances?

Did you not watch the video you posted above. They're falling back to a more defensible position with better terrain.

CondensedFoggyAggie said:

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News: The Biden admin is preparing to send Ukraine advanced, long-range rocket systems—known as MLRS and HIMARS—that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say.
Approval could be announced as soon as next week. https://t.co/wma6skIx8X

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) May 26, 2022

Concern over training requirements is minimal—it would not take too long to train the Ukrainians on any of the rocket launcher systems, officials told CNN, likely about two weeks, they said. https://t.co/wma6skIx8X

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) May 26, 2022

Hit it.

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I guess General Berger's garage sale is still digging up unneeded hardware.

I did watch it, but my question is more about how to ensure that more defensible position is adequate. I recall seeing something about typically needing at least a 3:1 ratio for offense to have a chance. If they're at 7+:1, would even the more defensible positions be sufficient? They've been moving to more defensible positions a lot, and I imagine that number of Russian troops will mean Russia holding the ground will be easier due to the easier logistics in the East.

Unfortunately, I can't watch it again right now, but I don't think that video quite addressed my question.

Waffledynamics said:

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I did watch it, but my question is more about how to ensure that more defensible position is adequate. I recall seeing something about typically needing at least a 3:1 ratio for offense to have a chance. If they're at 7+:1, would even the more defensible positions be sufficient? They've been moving to more defensible positions a lot, and I imagine that number of Russian troops will mean holding the ground will be easier due to the easier logistics in the East.

Unfortunately, I can't watch it again right now, but I don't think that video quite addressed my question.

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I'm not entirely sure how accurate that 3:1 ratio is for the current state of Russian troops in the region. 7:1 may not even be enough. It's kind of like football: that's why they play the games!

Once they break out of an area, it becomes an issue of mobility and to establish the next line of defense before the attack can reach it.

Waffledynamics said:

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I did watch it, but my question is more about how to ensure that more defensible position is adequate. I recall seeing something about typically needing at least a 3:1 ratio for offense to have a chance. If they're at 7+:1, would even the more defensible positions be sufficient? They've been moving to more defensible positions a lot, and I imagine that number of Russian troops will mean Russia holding the ground will be easier due to the easier logistics in the East.

Unfortunately, I can't watch it again right now, but I don't think that video quite addressed my question.

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If indeed the Ukrainians are facing a local superiority of 7:1 in forces, they are continuing to overperform. They should not be pressing an offensive on that front (unless they see the opportunity for a penetration and cutting Russian supply lines). A mobile defense is the preferred tactic under those circumstances. Maneuver can bring the opportunity to retake the ground that you cede while you look for the opportunity to regain local superiority.

Sun Tzu said in book 6: "Should the enemy strengthen his van, he will weaken his rear; should he strengthen his rear, he will weaken his van; should he strengthen his left, he will weaken his right; should he strengthen his right, he will weaken his left. If he sends reinforcements everywhere, he will everywhere be weak."

Also, "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak."

CondensedFoggyAggie said:

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News: The Biden admin is preparing to send Ukraine advanced, long-range rocket systems—known as MLRS and HIMARS—that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say.
Approval could be announced as soon as next week. https://t.co/wma6skIx8X

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) May 26, 2022

Concern over training requirements is minimal—it would not take too long to train the Ukrainians on any of the rocket launcher systems, officials told CNN, likely about two weeks, they said. https://t.co/wma6skIx8X

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) May 26, 2022

Hit it.

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The devil is always in the details. HIMARS/MLRS

Ulysses90 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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I did watch it, but my question is more about how to ensure that more defensible position is adequate. I recall seeing something about typically needing at least a 3:1 ratio for offense to have a chance. If they're at 7+:1, would even the more defensible positions be sufficient? They've been moving to more defensible positions a lot, and I imagine that number of Russian troops will mean Russia holding the ground will be easier due to the easier logistics in the East.

Unfortunately, I can't watch it again right now, but I don't think that video quite addressed my question.

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If indeed the Ukrainians are facing a local superiority of 7:1 in forces, they are continuing to overperform. They should not be pressing an offensive on that front (unless they see the opportunity for a penetration and cutting Russian supply lines). A mobile defense is the preferred tactic under those circumstances. Maneuver can bring the opportunity to retake the ground that you cede while you look for the opportunity to regain local superiority.

Sun Tzu said in book 6: "Should the enemy strengthen his van, he will weaken his rear; should he strengthen his rear, he will weaken his van; should he strengthen his left, he will weaken his right; should he strengthen his right, he will weaken his left. If he sends reinforcements everywhere, he will everywhere be weak."

Also, "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak."

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This right here above.

This area is the only axis they have any success and its been limited. Still seeing 3:1+ losses if orcs to Ukes. Given this area with some local previous support and shear numbers they have been able to be effective with their indirect fire supporting forward movement. On the ground this looks like: improved coms, 24/7 indirect fire support, maintenance and movement of that fire support. Meanwhile they send out cannon fodder to locate targets as they continue to lose recon drones.

The himmars and counter battery radars would be very helpful and I can't understand why those weapons haven't been sent in mass already. Even with what they have orcs will get chewed up worse approaching elevated ground.