The first to deploy quad copter drones with night vision/thermal imaging systems with machine learning enabled target identification will win this war. I don't expect to see that until January or later.

lb3 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

See my edit. Ukraine has a lot of people willing to fight. Best course of action may be to start training them. Pull some of the current experienced soldiers and send them to American NCO schools, even if they have to be abbreviated some. Take some of their current NCO's and send them to OCS. Build up and develop the command and leadership structure, and train their volunteers at lost levels to fill out a well trained military force.

---

A 10 week OCS program wouldn't do much for Ukranian soldiers. Those programs aren't designed to create leaders, they're designed to weed out those that aren't leadership material. Leadership training comes later.

---

And there's the little problem of them speaking English.

Yeah, but I'm talking about expanding their training programs and abilities to include more western heavy weaponry and tactics and increase their volume. Eventually the world will run out of surplus T-72's and T-80's. They also need to maintain long range AA capabilities, but there's a very limited ability to maintain and resupply S-300's. Same with their air force.

It's a numbers game, and they may not ultimately have the numbers are the necessary times without laying the groundwork now.

lb3 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

See my edit. Ukraine has a lot of people willing to fight. Best course of action may be to start training them. Pull some of the current experienced soldiers and send them to American NCO schools, even if they have to be abbreviated some. Take some of their current NCO's and send them to OCS. Build up and develop the command and leadership structure, and train their volunteers at lost levels to fill out a well trained military force.

---

A 10 week OCS program wouldn't do much for Ukranian soldiers. Those programs aren't designed to create leaders, they're designed to weed out those that aren't leadership material. Leadership training comes later.

---

Bottom line is they need to scale up and produce soldiers and leaders the same way we produce equipment, and they need to make a strategic shift from dependence on the familiar to ability to utilize the more permanently available. They may not get equivalent training, but even something abbreviated is better than nothing at this point.

K2-HMFIC said:

---

lb3 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

See my edit. Ukraine has a lot of people willing to fight. Best course of action may be to start training them. Pull some of the current experienced soldiers and send them to American NCO schools, even if they have to be abbreviated some. Take some of their current NCO's and send them to OCS. Build up and develop the command and leadership structure, and train their volunteers at lost levels to fill out a well trained military force.

---

A 10 week OCS program wouldn't do much for Ukranian soldiers. Those programs aren't designed to create leaders, they're designed to weed out those that aren't leadership material. Leadership training comes later.

---

And there's the little problem of them speaking English.

---

A large percentage of them actually do speak English.

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Yeah, but I'm talking about expanding their training programs and abilities to include more western heavy weaponry and tactics and increase their volume. Eventually the world will run out of surplus T-72's and T-80's. They also need to maintain long range AA capabilities, but there's a very limited ability to maintain and resupply S-300's. Same with their air force.

It's a numbers game, and they may not ultimately have the numbers are the necessary times without laying the groundwork now.

---

In that case, you're talking about sending them to something like the Basic School in Quantico. Even an accelerated version of the course probably couldn't be completed in less than 3 months give it take a few weeks. That's one hell of an investment in training during a high intensity war.

There has been some training. This was posted waaayy back

https://www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/

txags92 said:

---

Zobel said:

---

Russia has many many tanks and we all know sanctions aren't perfectly effective. I would guess that the current trajectory including US aid results in an eventual Russian victory. Pyrrhic perhaps but victory nonetheless.

---

Russia doesn't have as many modern tanks as you think, and the maintenance status of the ones they have is unknown, but probably bad. They have a lot of very old equipment stockpiled, and if it works as badly as their new equipment, it is less of an advantage than many are giving them credit for. Russia can't just keep endlessly throwing men and equipment into this war, without starting to think about their ability to defend themselves against an actual invasion from China, or to quell rebellions in one or more of their provinces.

Russia can't afford to treat this as WWIII. For Ukraine, this is an existential fight for the survival of their country, and throwing every able body and every weapon at the orcs is fine for them. They do not need to worry about Poland invading, and if Belarus were going to invade, they would have done it by now. For Russia this is a minor battle in the grand scheme of things and they DO still have to worry about being invaded by China or having one or more of their republics declare independence again. And with their paranoia and the buildup of troops in the Baltics for exercises there, they can't ignore the possibility of an invasion there either. So the orcs can't afford to just throw every body and every tank into the battle, because they know their only advantage over NATO equipment is their numerical superiority. Throwing that away in Ukraine will leave them very vulnerable in a lot of other places where they are already quite vulnerable.

---

you left out in your analysis that Russia has over 3,000 nuclear weapons.
Who is going to be invading them?

Yes, but the key words are, "scale up." That training was a long time ago and for a smaller army than what it will likely take to kick the Russians out completely. They can inflict losses fighting a defensive war, but they can't reclaim territory without overwhelming force. That means numbers.

Ukraine is also losing well trained, experienced soldiers in this fighting Even if they're losing them at a slower rate, they have fewer to lose. To fight to anything more than a standstill, they will need a lot more soldiers.

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

74OA said:

---

Artorias said:

---

Is anyone expecting Ukraine to hold out/win long-term without more extensive assistance from other countries?

---

We just approved $40B more in aid and Europe has ensured Ukraine currently has more tanks than it did at the start of hostilities. I see no slacking in assistance so far.

---

I think he means extensive additional assistance over the long term. They will be hard pressed to continue this war long term without outside help because the Russians have the numbers and stockpiles. Even with what has been given, Ukraine will continue to require assistance for the foreseeable future.

It might not be a bad idea to set up training facilities in Poland and start putting Ukrainians through American basic, then off to other schools before deploying to the front. If we know this war will go on long term and they have the volunteers, train them like we train ourselves. Train them on more of our equipment, then give it to them.

---

They are getting it. For Example

I posted this many pages back and it suggests Ukraine has a fundamental training base in place which, in combination with tens of thousands of soldiers now having extensive combat experience, should provide enough cadre to train the flow of replacements. Training on western systems will require assistance, of course. PROGRESS

Here's an Austrian staff college officer giving an interesting presentation on Ukraine's adaptive use of artillery during the Donbas campaign. (Enable English subtitles: Settings>Subtitles>Auto-Translate>English) SMART

pic.twitter.com/wve7Q6CIOT

— LtCol Rip Rawlings (@RipRawlings) May 20, 2022

lb3 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

Yeah, but I'm talking about expanding their training programs and abilities to include more western heavy weaponry and tactics and increase their volume. Eventually the world will run out of surplus T-72's and T-80's. They also need to maintain long range AA capabilities, but there's a very limited ability to maintain and resupply S-300's. Same with their air force.

It's a numbers game, and they may not ultimately have the numbers are the necessary times without laying the groundwork now.

---

In that case, you're talking about sending them to something like the Basic School in Quantico. Even an accelerated version of the course probably couldn't be completed in less than 3 months give it take a few weeks. That's one hell of an investment in training during a high intensity war.

---

It will be a long war. If you make that investment now, in 4-6 months you will see clear gains through a surge in capability and numbers. Yes, this is a high intensity war, but so were WWI, WWII, Korea, and Vietnam. They all lasted years. WWI and WWII weren't decided until the US entered the war and tipped the scales with manpower, not just equipment. We can't really do that here, but we can certainly train a very large number of Ukrainians to do the same.

I no longer believe the Russians can be beaten through attacking their logistics and sanctioning their supply chains and economy. The Europeans, primarily Germany and France, simply won't adhere strongly enough or make the sacrifices necessary. Even if the Russians need western components, they can channel them through shell companies in other countries. Eventually, they will get these networks built out enough to get around sanctions and restart or expand their stalled weapons production. I think that right now, the Ukrainians need to prepare for an eventual escalation in Russian capabilities and manpower, not a continued degradation.

While the internal politics of Russia may eventually become untenable for this level of conflict, I think a longer war only serves to hurt Ukraine and help Russia. Putin and the Kremlin have a very strong grip on power. He isn't afraid to kill rivals, and he controls much of the media apparatus and messaging. Even if this war takes years, I think he'll be able to continue to sell it and suppress opposition.

We also need to consider the internal politics of the countries supporting Ukraine. Even here we have plenty of, "'Mericuh first! Screw Ukraine!" sentiment about sending military and financial aid. Europe is eventually going to question how much they're willing to pay in economically and financially. There is currently a lot of support to outlast Russia, but there's no certainty on how permanent it will be. Ukraine needs outside equipment and money to win this, so they need a plan to reach their desired end state that minimizes the cost of their supporters.

There's also the problem of reliance on Soviet equipment. The rest of the world only has so much of it to give. Ukraine's military needs to start familiarizing with heavy western weapons like the M1 and Patriot systems and training on them. That is their best avenue long term because will be better able to source those weapons in the near and long term future. They also arguably have better capabilities.

The last thing Ukraine needs is to eventually kick Russia out with a pyrrhic victory of their own, where they've lost a lot of men, Eastern Ukraine is blown to Hell, and they have massive war debts. To me, the best strategy is to maintain current lines while building out forces as much as possible. Prepare for a large offensive in the southeast to cut the Russian forces in half. Isolate their troops in the south and then drive them to the sea as they struggle to supply them. That should cut the battle lines significantly, allowing Ukraine to focus on the east. Ideally this would happen in 4-6 months, allowing for winter fighting and maneuvering on frozen ground, then digging in for the spring and letting the Russians attempt counterattacks in the mud. For all of that though, Ukraine needs a lot more men than they currently have in order to maintain an overwhelming force against the Russians and engage in more widespread offensive operations.

This piece attempts to address a few misconceptions about France and Germany's support for Ukraine.

"Neither France nor Germany are seeking to pressuring Ukrainian authorities to accept concessions or cede territory, as it has been reported. Macron has been very clear in his recent speech to the European parliament: "As Europeans, we are working for the preservation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is up to Ukraine to define the conditions for negotiations with Russia"."

PERSPECTIVE

Quote:

---

Russian Ministry of Defense declares about full control over Azovstal in Mariupol, in total 2439 servicemen surrendered, according to their toll. Russian media now broadcasting video with prominent Ukrainian POWs

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-may-russian-ministry-of-defense-declares-about-full-control

Not saying they aren't helping, but they're essentially playing both sides.

Germany may support a full embargo, but it hasn't happened yet. I suspect they've given their support knowing that other European countries will continue to hold out, allowing them to save face while still buying Russian gas.

French companies have been supplying Russia with dual or military use equipment for some time, even in violation of sanctions. We found them (and the Germans) doing this with Iraq in 2003, IIRC, and selling them night vision equipment in violation of sanctions. I wouldn't doubt that these companies will continue to turn a blind eye to who their buyers are and where their equipment ultimately ends up.

On top of that, European countries are making commitments now, but that may be a different story when winter comes. There's no telling if the political winds will change when a lot of the oil and gas they're promising to forego is going to be need to heat homes.

Ukrainian paratroopers carried out an attack on a Russian forward base leading to the destruction of a number of their equipment.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/xxh3SKJ8m3

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) May 20, 2022

LiveUaMap says this was near Izyum.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-may-ukrainian-paratroopers-carried-out-an-attack-on-a

Russia appears to have gained more ground from Popasna. This is not good for the Severodonetsk salient.

Waffledynamics said:

---

Russia appears to have gained more ground from Popasna. This is not good for the Severodonetsk salient.

---

I would be prioritizing at least some of the units from the successful Kharkiv counter attacks here and not just at Izyum.

Looks like a Russian salient.

Time to deploy the reserves currently on the Belarus border to pinch off that incursion at Popasna.

aezmvp said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

Russia appears to have gained more ground from Popasna. This is not good for the Severodonetsk salient.

---

I would be prioritizing at least some of the units from the successful Kharkiv counter attacks here and not just at Izyum.

---

I think the final line will be the E40/M03 highway that runs from NW to SE. There is also a natural boundary with the river that runs north south intersecting this road. I suspect UKR is set up to hold this line and allow orcs to get strung out a little. New weaponry is still being deployed and more needs to be deployed.

As for training I suspect experienced personnel are cycling through their training from the front. Certainly large numbers of personnel at Kiev available to do this and also be on standby in the Kiev area. They should be also now available to rotate in inexperienced with experienced. Its one thing to learn how to pull a trigger or drive a tank, its another to learn from those battle hardened to employ in a most lethal manner while maintaining maximum survivability. There has been a significant decrease in russian losses in the last 7 days on Oryx, but the same for UKR losses so may just be those guys on vacation.

Either way this isn't close enough to being over. Ukraine still needs constant prayer and additional weaponry plus aid.

Captain Positivity said:

---

CondensedFoggyAggie said:

---

⚡️Reuters: US wants to give Ukraine “advanced anti-ship missiles” to defeat Russia's naval blockade.

The White House is looking to arm Ukraine with Boeing Harpoon and Naval Strike missiles made by Kongsberg and Raytheon Technologies, Reuters reports, citing U.S. officials.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 19, 2022

Hit it.

---

The harpoon is an aging platform but the Norwegian anti-ship strike missile is one of the best in the world.

---

I think the ranges on these two missiles is 250-300km tops. Hopefully, some type of launching strategy can be figured out to get these dogs in the hunt. I think the straight line distance from Odessa to Sevastopol is right at 300km.

If the Ukes could get within range and hit that Crimean naval port, it could definitely impact some of the sea based attacks and maybe hamper the Russian blockade capabilities.

For the first time, President of Ukraine Volodymyr @ZelenskyyUa commented on how food, water and ammunition were delivered to the defenders of the blocked Mariupol. He said that this was done by helicopters and up to 90% of Ukrainian pilots knowingly died during such tasks.

— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) May 20, 2022

How do we interpret this

They lost 90% of all their pilots supplying that position?
They 90% of the pilots they lost were performing that mission?
90% of the pilots that died knew their mission was to supply the plant?

BattleGrackle said:

---

How do we interpret this

They lost 90% of all their pilots supplying that position?
They 90% of the pilots they lost were performing that mission?
90% of the pilots that died knew their mission was to supply the plant?

---

I took it as "each mission had a fatality rate of up to 90%". That's the least bleak interpretation though.

I still think these would be a game changer. Need to extend the range for the Ukrainians.

A hostage video from Kherson. A Ukrainian woman with swollen eyes and shaven head is forced to say on camera that she has undergone 'a denazification course', apologize to Russians. It's hard to imagine what was done to her. All proponents of Ukraine's concessions should watch it https://t.co/09Ds6qfagG

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) May 20, 2022