P.U.T.U said:

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Ukraine has to cut off logistics before they do a major offensive in the area or Russia will keep sending troops and equipment.

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I think this is Ukraine's entire strategy from the tactical through strategic levels. Choke the supplies and keep peppering the Russian front lines to deplete any local material and personnel reserves.

As long as western countries keep providing quality weapons and sanctions significantly slow Russia's ability to replenish depleted reserves, they will eventually collapse.

If I were Ukraine I wouldn't attack where Russia is strongest and has spent weeks, months, or even years digging in, I would expand the playing field and put Belgorod within artillery range. It provides an opportunity to further attack a strategic level supply network and will force Russia to move their troops out of Donetsk to protect the motherland at a time and place of the Ukes choosing.

The Ghost of Snake Island. Nice TB2 update.

They need to try to threaten to or cut off that concentration in Izyum. It will at minimum force a major Russian redeployment to counter and all the logistical reordering required to do that, which we know they are poor at, and also threaten the major element of their larger encirclement attempt with being cut off and isolated itself.

If they can actually achieve effectively cutting off already low morale forces with unreliable logistics support, they might induce the mass capitulation of what amounts to several brigades with of BTC or at least force them to completely change tasks and deployment.

Hopefully they will get to utilize some of these almost 10X the payload.

Hope so, but they are probably easier to spot and hit with air defenses.

JFABNRGR said:

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Hopefully they will get to utilize some of these almost 10X the payload.

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A larger UAV would likely lose one of the TB2's key features: "Although not fully stealthy, the Bayraktar features a low radar cross-section (RCS). Together with its relatively low altitude and slow speed, this makes it difficult for classical radars to track. "It is a low-slow-flyer (LSF), and you know it is a challenge for classical radars to detect LSFs already. And its RCS makes it even harder.""

In addition to the #Rostov pre-trial detention center, some militants were taken to the #Taganrog pre-trial detention center, military journalists reported. However, there is no official confirmation of this information.

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 18, 2022

Information war continues to escalate. IMO, had there been evidence of Ukrainian wrongdoing in Russian occupied territory, Russia would have been reaching out to well known large network foreign journos immediately upon occupation and not waiting weeks/months before attempting to orchestrate a massive and highly curated press parade.

Full Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1526873736670068736.html

According to the #Ukrainian military intelligence data, the Department of Information and Mass Communications of the occupant’s Ministry of Defense is urgently organising foreign journalists press tour to temporarily occupied territories of #Ukraine.
(2/8)

— ArmyInform (@armyinformcomua) May 18, 2022

Those fragments were collected from all occupied areas of #Donetsk region. With the same purposes, they also instruct "local eyewitnesses", who were brought from Donetsk and #Horlivka, to tell journalists about the fictitious "crimes” performed by the #Mariupol defenders.
(4/8)

— ArmyInform (@armyinformcomua) May 18, 2022

BattleGrackle said:

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This is not what the agreement was, correct?

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No. This was not what was reported to have been negotiated.

Russia co-opting Ukrainian economic assets as fast as they can.

#Russia says the largest nuclear power plant in Europe will now be operated by Rosatom and be selling electricity to #Ukraine 🤯 this is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant we are talking about. The one russia illegally occupies

— Lesia Vasylenko (@lesiavasylenko) May 18, 2022

So this is what the SkyNet death planes will look like.

⚠️ In the north-east of Kharkiv Ukrainian armed forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets River in several points, with reports of advancing to within 7 km of russian occupied Vovchansk. #Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineRussianWar pic.twitter.com/v4Lzlcza05

— GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) May 17, 2022

#Kharkiv Axis - #Ukrainian troops have bridged the Donets River in 2 locations, moved a large assault force across the river and attacked #Russian forces 90km NE of Kharkiv along critical #RUAF supply lines. #UAF may have seized the town of Zarichne and are still attacking NE. pic.twitter.com/8k2ASVeWmR

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) May 18, 2022

These tanks are already being used during the Ukrainian counter-offensive in #Kharkiv Oblast- here we see a convoy with T-72M1R and T-72M1- both of which have received Kontakt-1 ERA.
Note that these ERA blocks may be filled with explosives from Czechia.https://t.co/xIBf69oeSF pic.twitter.com/3w98qincIt

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 18, 2022

Good job Poland

The Baltic states ( #Lithuania, #Latvia, #Estonia ) and #Poland are asking for the deployment of 20,000 NATO troops on their territory due to the threat of Russia.

Pictured as at 16 March 2022.#UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineUnderAttaсk #UkraineRussia pic.twitter.com/wGMOHCk9h3

— Intermarium24 (@intermarium24) May 18, 2022

#Ukraine: A Strela-10M3 short-range surface-to-air missile system, captured from the Russian army, received new camo and is now being successfully operated by the 92nd Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine.https://t.co/1WkEcKubZY pic.twitter.com/ajbCpiiDKk

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 18, 2022

If they are NATO members aren't their own troops "NATO troops"?

Do they just want to have foreigners on their soil so there is more skin in the game so to speak?

BattleGrackle said:

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If they are NATO members aren't their own troops "NATO troops"?

Do they just want to have foreigners on their soil so there is more skin in the game so to speak?

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Basically, yes.

Also, the hosting government will pay for a good portion of the costs. It's by no means cheap for them.

The professor himself in this photo speaks:

https://instagr.am/p/CdtP-q1L9bx

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"I am a professor of Uzhhorod National University, Doctor of Sciences. I've been teaching at the University for 27 years.

On the 24th February I was greatly shocked by what had happened, got to my work and gave three lectures to students and afterwards I got together with my friends and we went to join the Ukrainian Military Forces. In an hour after going through necessary procedures we appeared in the military base.

On that day which is captured on the picture I was giving a lecture on tourismology to my students. I had three lessons after night patrolling without proper sleeping."

- "Fedir" Doctor of Sciences. Ukrainian soldier. Invasion of Ukraine. May 5th, 2022.

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Still a long way to go, Ukraine needs all the modern artillery and shells they can get.

#Footage
Russia uses Zala Aero Kub-E loitering munition against US-supplied M777 artillery piece.
Luckily for the Ukrainians, the suicde drone misses the howitzer by about 7-10 meters. pic.twitter.com/55XuI5n3Tj

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) May 18, 2022

Shows impressively how urgent Ukraine needs the Panzerhaubitze 2000 with its 40 km range and its high mobility.
And not only the seven, Germany wants to give (12 in total, together with the five Dutch), but at least 25 ...
cc @nicolange_

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) May 18, 2022

And yes! I am very much aware that these Russian advances lie far behind the initial plans to capture Eastern 🇺🇦 - as I again mentioned in our TV program today.
However, there is still no general turning point, but 🇺🇦 advancing in Kharkiv and 🇷🇺 gaining ground in Luhansk&Donetsk. pic.twitter.com/EPBAHr1Ahi

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) May 18, 2022

More disturbing propaganda on Russian state TV: denial of the Holodomor that killed millions in Ukraine, along with accusations that the West is organizing starvation in Ukraine and setting up global hunger, in order to show pictures of starving African kids and blame Putin. pic.twitter.com/UaXd1mJw7o

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 18, 2022

#Russian forces are fighting harder to retain territory N of Kharkiv. It appears that #Russia is trying to maintain a specific 25mi/40km buffer between #Ukrainian troops and the S side of #Belgorod, which is roughly shown in the red circle on the map below. pic.twitter.com/P99igFadEL

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) May 19, 2022

A detailed look into how dependent Russia is on foreign components to supply its military and the cheating by some nations in defiance of sanctions. HARDWARE

74OA said:

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A detailed look into how dependent Russia is on foreign components to supply its military and the cheating by some nations in defiance of sanctions. HARDWARE

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Good read. Thanks for sharing. A few snippets from this article:

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In plain English, this means that these items have been purchased and/or shipped to Russia illegally, as their importation was already barred years ago by the sanctions regime imposed on Moscow post-2014. A more restrictive export control regime can be instituted by the US and its allies, but the report points out that it is always possible for Russia to obtain these items by "laundering" them through front-companies in third-party nations. The Czech Republic, Serbia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, India, and the PRC are identified by the RUSI report as the most likely candidates, with Ukranian sources pointing to the UAE as another option.

However, there remain nations even within the EU willing to skirt export control restrictions in order to make sales to Russian industry. Classified documents obtained by the investigative reporting site Disclose and published in mid-March reveal that between 2015 and 2020 France had been secretly arming Russia. At the same time French president Emmanuel Macron had been at the forefront to finding a diplomatic solution to prevent an invasion of Ukraine by Russia, France had already issued 76 export licenses for sale to Russia of military equipment worth a total of 152 million ($158 million).

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However, there is reason to have skepticism that a truly crippling sanctions regime can be maintained against Moscow indefinitely, given the financial and commercial impact on the rest of the world, especially the energy sector.

"There are too many investments particularly by the French and the Germans as well all others for those adversely affected by these embargoes to not look for any and all means to circumvent them," said one long-time Pentagon analyst of Russia's military. "I do not know if these sanctions can be maintained for ten years. I would be surprised if they last six years at the outside."

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Some Russian officials have become concerned that Russian forces in the ravaged port city of Mariupol are carrying out grievous abuses, which include beating and electrocuting city officials and robbing homes.https://t.co/IR6KNM822o

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 19, 2022

At the end of this, no matter if Russia wins or loses and if Putin is still alive, an operation like Churchill's Operation Unthinkable is tempting. But if that happens I think Russia would use nukes.

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Vladimir Putin's top security officials understand that the war in Ukraine is 'lost' and a coup is now a realistic possibility, a Russian analyst has predicted.

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10833839/Ukraine-war-Putins-security-officials-know-war-lost-analyst-says.html

FriscoKid said:

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Quote:

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Vladimir Putin's top security officials understand that the war in Ukraine is 'lost' and a coup is now a realistic possibility, a Russian analyst has predicted.

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10833839/Ukraine-war-Putins-security-officials-know-war-lost-analyst-says.html

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If there is any truth to that article it would seem to indicate that the Russian loses are in fact much higher than we may believe. The part about wives and mothers was the nexus for their withdrawal from Afghanistan.

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Russia's problem is demographics and culture. They already had ports on the Black Sea

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I agree there may be a culture issue with regards to how Russia views external conflicts.

Demographics is a silly reason to go to war and is overstated by the talking heads. Killing off several % of your fertile population is counterproductive.

Despite Russia's historical relationship with war, it is hard for me to believe that Russia would like to send its kids into an external war as a last ditch effort to remain a super power. Again, I think the demographic argument is overstated by the entertaining talking heads.