PJYoung said:

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The lethal effects of artillery were not put on a really scientific basis until WW2.

There were lots of reasons for this involving money & politics I won't go into.

When the operational analysts to their first bite. They made charts like this mapping fragment impacts.
2/ pic.twitter.com/ugQ6jf0oYP

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) May 16, 2022

What analysts were trying to achieve was a consistent modeling of airburst frag-patterns to kill infantry in trenches.

Then this information was fed into engineering shell designs to get the metallurgy & design of shells
4/ pic.twitter.com/Rd7d4KgND8

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) May 16, 2022

The movement to ban cluster weapons lead to a push to replace lots of little bombs with more efficient fragmentation with 40 years better computer technology, explosives & metallurgy.

This Rheinmetall infographic shows what that means in terms of shell lethality.
6/ pic.twitter.com/x12DaowN02

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) May 16, 2022

Russian 152mm shells have not ridden the increased lethality technological development train because Russia kept artillery cluster munitions.

The M795 155mm shell has. And it much more lethal on a shell for shell basis than a Russian 152mm shell because it did.

8/

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) May 16, 2022

There is a price to be paid for US M795 shell being both more lethal in its fragmentation and safer to use because of the explosives.

It costs more than a Russian 152mm shell.

There are reasons why the defense budget costs more for fewer weapons.

This is one of them.
9/End

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) May 16, 2022

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This is all good info, but I have yet to see a single piece of evidence that even a single air burst round has been fired by either side. That doesn't mean it hasn't happened it just means it hasn't been played much and there has been several articles posted stating that air burst fuses have extremely short shelf lives and may not have been available in large quantities.

Air burst certainly hell on infantry and a few would be effective over trenches but they have been plenty successful with the contact fuzes.

There is a post a page or two back that shows magnesium rounds being fired in the Mariupol area by Ukraine

P.U.T.U said:

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There is a post a page or two back that shows magnesium rounds being fired in the Mariupol area by Ukraine

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I think it was the Russians firing the rounds into the iron factory

He's not talking about airburst there. The chart is all ground burst

Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’, say western sources https://t.co/50tMthoCmL

— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) May 16, 2022

Putin's military background is difficult to verify, said he was a lieutenant colonel but various sources have it for different things. Some say tank commander, intelligence, and artillery. I know he worked for the KGB/FSS for a while but never heard about conventional military action.

So leading a war is someone with no conventional military experience. Well that explains a lot with all the blunders so far

And almost immediately following the Azovstal rescue — a massive Russian missile attack upon Lviv

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 16, 2022

Lviv is under heavy attack right now. Friends say it has never been this loud. This is WEST #Ukraine. Very close to Poland 🇵🇱

— Lesia Vasylenko (@lesiavasylenko) May 16, 2022

53 severely wounded Ukrainian soldiers went from Mariupol to a medical facility in Russian-occupied Novoazovsk for a future prisoner exchange.

211 defenders were evacuated to Olenivka and then into Ukrainian-controlled territory through an exchange procedure.
–UA armed forces

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) May 16, 2022

A statement from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine says 211 defenders were evacuated to Olenivka through a humanitarian corridor "with further return of them to Ukrainian-controlled territory through an exchange procedure." This implies they're waiting in Olenivka.

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) May 16, 2022

In this video Ukrainian Air Defense can be seen Actively attempting to hit Targets over the City. pic.twitter.com/ScgQMqV9lk

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 16, 2022

P.U.T.U said:

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Putin's military background is difficult to verify, said he was a lieutenant colonel but various sources have it for different things. Some say tank commander, intelligence, and artillery. I know he worked for the KGB/FSS for a while but never heard about conventional military action.

So leading a war is someone with no conventional military experience. Well that explains a lot with all the blunders so far

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The KGB ranks were always overpromoted so that they had more power over lesser ranked members of the armed forces at similar levels of responsibility.

Rossticus said:

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Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’, say western sources https://t.co/50tMthoCmL

— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) May 16, 2022

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Just like his mentor Hitler.

Keep it up! No one can do this as well as you can sitting in Moscow!

They just can't stay away from that airport.

Southern Axis Update:#Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces struck a #Russian ammunition depot in #Chornobaivka again, likely near the #Kherson City Airport.https://t.co/kQ2DIU4bps pic.twitter.com/s7QsaPAImd

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 16, 2022

Well, this is an interesting, if completely fantastical, take.

This is how Russian state TV's Olga Skabeyeva introduced the channel's UK correspondent onto her show today

(with subtitles) pic.twitter.com/lQpiHPwrY4

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) May 16, 2022

Russian forces around Kharkiv City are notably trying to hold the border and prevent Ukrainian troops from advancing further north, as opposed to previous Russian withdrawals from around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy earlier in the war, which saw them pull completely back to Russia.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 16, 2022

The Russians might alternatively hope to conduct a counter-counter-offensive to push back south toward Kharkiv, although such an effort is highly unlikely to succeed.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 16, 2022

benchmark said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russian troops may seek to retain positions in Ukraine and continue artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting into tube or rocket-artillery range of the outskirts of Belgorod.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 16, 2022

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Regardless of the political risk, it would be interesting to put Belgorod within artillery range. This is a major supply, staging, and transport hub with 6 major road/rail bridges crossing the Siversky Donets River ... all 20-23 miles from the Ukrainian border. The M777 + M982 Excalibur GPS-guided munitions have a range up to 25 miles. Just say'n.

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Which probably explains why the orcs are trying to hold short of the border.

txags92 said:

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benchmark said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russian troops may seek to retain positions in Ukraine and continue artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting into tube or rocket-artillery range of the outskirts of Belgorod.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 16, 2022

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Regardless of the political risk, it would be interesting to put Belgorod within artillery range. This is a major supply, staging, and transport hub with 6 major road/rail bridges crossing the Siversky Donets River ... all 20-23 miles from the Ukrainian border. The M777 + M982 Excalibur GPS-guided munitions have a range up to 25 miles. Just say'n.

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Which probably explains why the orca are trying to hold short of the border.

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Russia's taking of Sevastopol's marine mammals in 2014 is starting to make a difference.

https://t.co/eqTvtpoheD

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) May 17, 2022

Another one with a grenade in a plastic cup.https://t.co/LfdvME7NiO

— Saturnax 🇸🇰🇪🇺🇺🇦💪 (@Saturnax1) May 16, 2022

Avdiivka (Авдіївка), Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian forces destroy a dam upstream of Russian forces. pic.twitter.com/PyXxDulMz6

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 17, 2022

It's going to get complicated. Germany, France and Italy are starting to push harder for Ukraine to tap out and give Putin something to make him happy so that THEY can salvage their pre-war relationships and not upset the status quo long term. A definite rift between central/Eastern Europe, UK, and US vs western Europe is emerging.

bonfarr said:

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Rossticus said:

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Another one with a grenade in a plastic cup.https://t.co/LfdvME7NiO

— Saturnax 🇸🇰🇪🇺🇺🇦💪 (@Saturnax1) May 16, 2022

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How much money do you think the Ukrainians would raise if they could set up an online gaming platform that let people control the drone once it's over the target and aim and drop the grenade for a fee? I bet there are many wealthy gamers that would pay $10 k or so for the privilege of dropping a bomb on some thieving murdering Russians.

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From a purely theoretical standpoint they could make a butt ton of money, I'm sure, but from a practical, functional, and legal standpoint there are a staggering number of thoroughly prohibitive barriers.

All is fair in love and war

Rossticus said:

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It's going to get complicated. Germany, France and Italy are starting to push harder for Ukraine to tap out and give Putin something to make him happy so that THEY can salvage their pre-war relationships and not upset the status quo long term. A definite rift between central/Eastern Europe, UK, and US vs western Europe is emerging.

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Putin's response to Sweden and Finland joining nato should tell them something. Remember when he was going to nuke them if they tried? Putin will respond to their resolve, not the lack of it at this point. They need to make clear that he has run out of friends that are not Chinese. He'll figure his off ramp if he wants to have a functioning economy and retain power or if he wants to be china's b*tch and let them call the shots.

Yup, it's all about the resources so a compromise will be reached eventually / that being said the hatred between the peoples will take generations to quell.

The repayment period of the loan is 30 years with an interest rate of 1% per annum, including a grace period of 10 years.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 16, 2022

chickencoupe16 said:

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txags92 said:

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benchmark said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russian troops may seek to retain positions in Ukraine and continue artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting into tube or rocket-artillery range of the outskirts of Belgorod.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 16, 2022

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Regardless of the political risk, it would be interesting to put Belgorod within artillery range. This is a major supply, staging, and transport hub with 6 major road/rail bridges crossing the Siversky Donets River ... all 20-23 miles from the Ukrainian border. The M777 + M982 Excalibur GPS-guided munitions have a range up to 25 miles. Just say'n.

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Which probably explains why the orca are trying to hold short of the border.

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Russia's taking of Sevastopol's marine mammals in 2014 is starting to make a difference.

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You think autocorrect changing orcs to orca is a sign of russian hacking?

#Ukrainian troops defending #Lyman will soon have to decide whether to bunker down for a #Mariupol like siege or fallback to the SE over the Donets River. The bridges over the river have been destroyed to slow #Russian advances. If #UAF doesn't decide soon, they will be trapped. pic.twitter.com/M2UjBAoVAK

— OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint) May 17, 2022

txags92 said:

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chickencoupe16 said:

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txags92 said:

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benchmark said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russian troops may seek to retain positions in Ukraine and continue artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting into tube or rocket-artillery range of the outskirts of Belgorod.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 16, 2022

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Regardless of the political risk, it would be interesting to put Belgorod within artillery range. This is a major supply, staging, and transport hub with 6 major road/rail bridges crossing the Siversky Donets River ... all 20-23 miles from the Ukrainian border. The M777 + M982 Excalibur GPS-guided munitions have a range up to 25 miles. Just say'n.

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Which probably explains why the orca are trying to hold short of the border.

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Russia's taking of Sevastopol's marine mammals in 2014 is starting to make a difference.

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You think autocorrect changing orcs to orca is a sign of russian hacking?

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Undoubtedly.

#Mariupol Update:#Russian and #Ukrainian officials negotiated the evacuation of 264 wounded Mariupol defenders from #Azovstal Steel Plant to occupied #Donetsk Oblast on May 16.https://t.co/kQ2DIU4bps pic.twitter.com/zkOCQFxnVE

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 16, 2022

Russian forces raised a sunken Ukrainian ship from the sea floor in the port on May 15. Petro Andryushenko, an aide to Mariupol's mayor, said another sunken Ukrainian ship and mines are preventing Russian forces from reopening the port.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 17, 2022