RONA Ag said:
Can someone give an overall synopsis of what is happening? Trying to follow as best I can but I'm summary I have as follows:
Ukraine making strong pushes and encirclement's to the Russian border in the NE while Russia is actively pushing and taking ground in the south toward Odessa. Is this fair to say?
Ukraine is trying to clear the Russians all the way back to border north of Kharkiv and cut off key supply lines in the area and north of nearby Izium. Russia is trying to mass enough forces in Izium to complete a large encirclement. They are simultaneously pursuing a smaller encirclement of Severodonetsk. In the south, Russia has pretty much settled into playing defense. And in the East, they are also trying to mass forces to renew a push outward. Finally, there are still a few defenders at Azovstal in Mariupol, it's the Ukrainian Alamo and it sounds like their days are numbered.
The most fireworks are going to come from the mutual attempts at encirclement in the northeast. I don't expect major movement anywhere else until that plays out.
Thematically, Russia is on the back foot. Their already-poor logistics and leadership were crippled in the first months of the war, making it very difficult for them to coordinate effective offensives.
Ukraine wins this by repeated encirclements (spearheaded by newly-arrived and highly capable American artillery) severing key supply lines. Russia wins by main assault. It's hard to imagine either one achieving a full battlefield victory.
Ukrainian resolve appears to remain strong while Russia's signaling has weakened a bit in recent weeks.
Key Western European nations have begun publicly pressuring Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement including loss of territory, likely in an attempt to prevent damage to the EU economies. Finally, these events have led Finland and Sweden to change from neutrality to alliance with NATO with a chance of full membership.
