***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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2:24a, 5/14/22
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Rossticus
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2:35a, 5/14/22
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Rossticus
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2:35a, 5/14/22
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TRM
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:35a, 5/14/22
AG
Just because this has been bugging me recently, this isn't a tactical update. It belongs in the other thread.
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FamousAgg
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:50a, 5/14/22
Rossticus said:

The Russians opened up a war so they could rape Ukrainians
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agent-maroon
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:54a, 5/14/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
ATX_AG_08 said:
Pardon my ignorance but what are SIMs?

TIA.
Cell phone SIM cards, I believe
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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V8Aggie
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8:38a, 5/14/22
AG
Can y'all shut up arguing about the Normandy comparison? That's not relevant to this thread.
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richardag
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In reply to V8Aggie • 8:47a, 5/14/22
V8Aggie said:
Can y'all shut up arguing about the Normandy comparison? That's not relevant to this thread.
Agreed, sorry for the derail.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
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TheGroupGuy
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8:49a, 5/14/22
Bridge losses look exaggerated here.
https://apple.news/AINOm_wDlQfeWXwJvULsqyw
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to TheGroupGuy • 9:24a, 5/14/22
AG
TheGroupGuy said:
Bridge losses look exaggerated here.
https://apple.news/AINOm_wDlQfeWXwJvULsqyw

How so? Nothing in there said they were exaggerated.
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Ulrich
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9:41a, 5/14/22
Boredom from onlookers is real, although I don't think it is overwhelming yet, and if the administration decides that funding Ukraine is no longer earning them votes they'll stop. You can see France already trying to bail, and Germany was tepid all along. Poland, Sweden, and the Balkans will likely keep helping as much as they can because they know they face an actual threat from Russia and would rather cripple them via proxy.

I still catch up on this thread multiple times a day, but it has settled into more of a siege vs the crazy stuff on the early days so there is less to comment on. Now Afghanistan… we bailed hard on that situation.
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AGS-R-TUFF
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9:51a, 5/14/22
AG
Whether we post more or not is irrelevant. The Ukes are in a full out 24/7 fight mode to defend their country, families and future. They appear to be mastering the Russian battle tactics on the fly and not only putting up furious resistance, but successful offensive push back…see Kiev and now Kharkiv.

Russia outnumbers them with a mixed bag of large and outdated BTGs equipped with decades old equipment, that are running into refitting issues which will only get worse. They have struggled mightily with supply and logistics, are plagued with moral problems and have taken multiple losses in frontline leadership.

The last 30 days have seen a seismic shift in the type of weaponry being advanced to the Ukes. They also have maintained secure access to their own supply/logistics from the West - while of course inflicting chaos on the Russian inflows.

Yes the Russians will keep shifting around, digging in, trying to hold their stolen territories. But this is not 2014, the Ukes will fracture them, keep hitting command/control targets, degrade their supply chain and eventually drive them further and further back.

Russia will of course continue to fire missiles and use stand off tactics. But they will not be able to mount any sustainable (take and hold indefinitely) offensives. They are up against arguably the most motivated fighting force in recent history - being armed and supplied with intelligence by a powerful coalition of countries - who are going to fight to the last drop of blood to seek vengeance for the atrocities waged against them.

Putin's War will set Russia back decades.
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TheGroupGuy
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 10:00a, 5/14/22
ABATTBQ11 said:
TheGroupGuy said:
Bridge losses look exaggerated here.
https://apple.news/AINOm_wDlQfeWXwJvULsqyw

How so? Nothing in there said they were exaggerated.


In this article casualty figures are far lower than many other estimates suggesting many casualty estimates may be quite exaggerated.
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sclaff
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10:24a, 5/14/22
AG
Nice commentary on the failed Donestk river crossing and implications

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CondensedFogAggie
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11:12a, 5/14/22


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CondensedFogAggie
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11:16a, 5/14/22

Translation:
Quote:
So, we are volunteer squad from russian federation. We were supposed to offer "help" in LNR. All the guys agreed to participate in special operation. After reaching Lugansk's territory local administration misused our personnel. We hadn't received appropriate training, and with that we were deployed on the frontline without any cooperation with LNR's military forces, militia included. We've returned to russia by now. We haven't received any aid from authorities. People live in different regions, including the farthest ones. That includes far-east, Archangelsk region, Kurili, Kamchatka, Sachalin, Murmansk. Anyway, they were sending people to slaughterhouse.
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YouBet
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11:21a, 5/14/22
AG
Erdogan making noise about voting against Finland joining NATO. Regrets letting Greece in and doesn't want to make another mistake.

They are such a wildcard.
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CondensedFogAggie
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11:21a, 5/14/22
NOT trying to make this political, just good to see bipartisan support the past couple of weeks.


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CondensedFogAggie
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In reply to MeatDr • 11:29a, 5/14/22
MeatDr said:
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CondensedFogAggie
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11:52a, 5/14/22

"Ukrainians fight and improvise." Interview with Ken Ree, a former South Korean special forces lieutenant.



Some excerpts,

Quote:
Why are you here, what was your motivation to fight for Ukraine?

Everyone has a reason to come to Ukraine. For me, this is absolutely a matter of morality. I saw on TV what was happening here, I could not believe that Russia could just invade a sovereign state. In my head, I knew who were the bad guys and who were the good guys.

What was your combat experience, and have you already fought here in Ukraine?

As part of the Korean navy seals, we rescued hostages in Somalia: in 2009-2011 there were many counter-terrorist operations there, and I gained a lot of combat experience there. After that, I was in Iraq during quite difficult periods, just as I came to Ukraine in the first week of the war, when Kyiv was under threat of enemy invasion.

Then we had successful missions in Irpin. But they were not very successful when two of my boys were injured. We fought against Russian tanks, armored vehicles and soldiers in the central park of Irpin, which we were trying to liberate. And I am happy to be part of two groups of liberators who eventually expelled the Russians.

After Irpin we went to the south of Ukraine. Now my team is still on a mission there, but I was injured during the last operation and have a few days to spend in the military hospital examination.

How are relations with Ukrainians and other foreign legionnaires?

We had to work with Ukrainian special forces on the battlefield, and they are exceptional professionals very well-trained fighters. But it was also quite difficult due to the great cultural and mental differences. I trained with the Korean and American military, where we always spent a lot of energy on planning.

Ukrainian fighters are a little different, they are like a flash they just go and fight, improvising. This is a very good fighting mentality, but I and many Americans or Britons have a culture shock because of the big difference in approaches to combat.

I met Georgians, but for me they are also very militant. Sometimes they don't have good technique, training or strategy, especially weapons or equipment. However, they are fighting like real fearless warriors.

What did you like most about Ukraine and what was the hardest thing about being here?

I was very impressed by how kind and sensitive the Ukrainian people are to foreigners, even during the war no one was angry or annoyed. This is a unique situation: there is a cult of foreign fighters in Ukraine, and everyone is ready to help them.

How do you see the end of this war and what are your personal plans for the future?

I think it will either take a long time or Putin will die of disease or cancer. He's not one of those guys who gives up easily. And Ukraine is definitely not going to give up. That is why the war will last for some time.
https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/ukrajinski-vojini-improvizuyut-kolishniy-koreyskiy-specnaznachinec-interv-yu-novini-ukrajini-50241549.html
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CondensedFogAggie
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11:55a, 5/14/22

Hard to put into words the intensity
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CondensedFogAggie
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12:04p, 5/14/22

Look at that rifle, those helmets. If this is real footage from the Russians in Ukraine, they are ****ed
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CondensedFogAggie
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12:13p, 5/14/22

"From America with Love" written on the side of an M777.


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CondensedFogAggie
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12:23p, 5/14/22

Good hunting
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torrid
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 12:26p, 5/14/22
AG
...
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torrid
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In reply to torrid • 12:27p, 5/14/22
AG
...
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 12:38p, 5/14/22
CondensedFoggyAggie said:

Good hunting


Vaporized
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to TheGroupGuy • 12:40p, 5/14/22
AG
TheGroupGuy said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
TheGroupGuy said:
Bridge losses look exaggerated here.
https://apple.news/AINOm_wDlQfeWXwJvULsqyw

How so? Nothing in there said they were exaggerated.


In this article casualty figures are far lower than many other estimates suggesting many casualty estimates may be quite exaggerated.


There are no casualty figures in that article. The only number is an estimate of the vehicles lost and a mention that a brigade sized unit is typically over 500 strong. BTG's are actually 700-800 strong and sometimes 900. The armor, infantry, and engineering elements lost may amount to 500, which is in line with many estimates.
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Eliminatus
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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 1:07p, 5/14/22
AG
AGS-R-TUFF said:
Whether we post more or not is irrelevant. The Ukes are in a full out 24/7 fight mode to defend their country, families and future. They appear to be mastering the Russian battle tactics on the fly and not only putting up furious resistance, but successful offensive push back…see Kiev and now Kharkiv.

Russia outnumbers them with a mixed bag of large and outdated BTGs equipped with decades old equipment, that are running into refitting issues which will only get worse. They have struggled mightily with supply and logistics, are plagued with moral problems and have taken multiple losses in frontline leadership.

The last 30 days have seen a seismic shift in the type of weaponry being advanced to the Ukes. They also have maintained secure access to their own supply/logistics from the West - while of course inflicting chaos on the Russian inflows.

Yes the Russians will keep shifting around, digging in, trying to hold their stolen territories. But this is not 2014, the Ukes will fracture them, keep hitting command/control targets, degrade their supply chain and eventually drive them further and further back.

Russia will of course continue to fire missiles and use stand off tactics. But they will not be able to mount any sustainable (take and hold indefinitely) offensives. They are up against arguably the most motivated fighting force in recent history - being armed and supplied with intelligence by a powerful coalition of countries - who are going to fight to the last drop of blood to seek vengeance for the atrocities waged against them.

Putin's War will set Russia back decades.


Excellent summation and matches my thoughts exactly. I have always caged my ultimate feelings with stuff like, "this isn't over yet" , and "only time will tell". I think it is pretty clear at this point to most that Russia is not winning this. Not bidding the house on that since warfare is crazy at times, but yeah, pretty confident in at least that.

I also don't think the average American truly understands the absolute shift in power that has occurred in that part of the world, and will continue to shift further and further. Russia had power through fear. That fear is now largely gone, and without nukes would be entirely gone. The global geopolitical awareness of an average American is frighteningly small.

Russia is screwed, just as you say. And I am glad I am alive to see it!
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AggieLit
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 1:22p, 5/14/22
.
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74OA
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2:21p, 5/14/22
AG
Why ownership of Snake Island matters. CONTROL
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Rossticus
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3:13p, 5/14/22
Full Thread Thoroughly Addressing All ODs: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1525541738147991554.html

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B-1 83
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3:30p, 5/14/22
AG
Many reports keep mentioning Russian air power and air strikes. Do the Ukes not have enough longer range/modern SAMs to reduce these to nothing?
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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Rossticus
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3:31p, 5/14/22
Ah, yes. "The will of the people". Russia, and the USSR before it, have always been quite sensitive "the will of the people". "The people" of course, wanted Russia to invade. Just ask Russia.

Headline Translation: ' Russia "doesn't care" about the non-recognition of the change in Ukraine's borders by the G7, Medvedev said. According to him, "the true will of the people living there is important" '



Article Excerpts:

Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev reacted to the statement of the G7 Foreign Ministers following the three-day meeting on non-recognition of the change in Ukraine's borders.

"Change in Ukraine's borders is not recognized. Let's put it mildly: our country does not care about the non-recognition of new borders by the G7, the true will of the people living there is important," he wrote in his Telegram channel.

Also, commenting on the intentions of the G7 countries to continue sanctions pressure on Russia, Medvedev joked that Moscow expected a proposal of material assistance for the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. He also added ironically that the "seven" forgot to say about Russia's inevitable use of strategic nuclear forces in the conflict and the likely executions of Ukrainian nationalists on the Frontal Place of Red Square through quartering.

Russia began a special operation in Ukraine on February 24. President Vladimir Putin called it the goal of "protecting people who have been bullied and genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years." To do this, according to him, it is planned to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, to bring to justice all war criminals responsible for "bloody crimes against civilians" of Donbass.

According to the Ministry of Defense, the Armed Forces strike only on military infrastructure and Ukrainian troops and as of March 25 fulfilled the main tasks of the first stage - significantly reduced the combat potential of Ukraine. The main goal in the Russian military department was the liberation of Donbass.
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Rossticus
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In reply to B-1 83 • 3:34p, 5/14/22
B-1 83 said:
Many reports keep mentioning Russian air power and air strikes. Do the Ukes not have enough longer range/modern SAMs to reduce these to nothing?


Nope. Most missile strikes are either stand-off strikes from within Russia or sub based cruise missile strikes.
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