The tweeter posts Russian propaganda.

Jayhawk said:

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Rossticus said:

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Just spoke w/ a senior European official about Ukraine and the situation in Bosnia and the broader Balkans. One of his comments sums up our conversation: "France is a problem. I mean, they're really a very big problem." Indeed.

— Jasmin Mujanović (@JasminMuj) May 13, 2022

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As I see it, keeping the Europeans (France and Germany basically) onside is the single key strategic vulnerability for the Ukrainians. The biggest vulnerability for the Ukes is that they can't self-pay for this war and they are going to be dependent on political, financial, and logistic support from the EU. Worst case if France and Germany make a "separate peace" with Russia to turn the gas back on, the US would have to shoulder essentially 100% of the financial burden for the war (appreciate the gesture UK but let's be serious here)... Poland would undoubtedly continue to provide a ready logistics hub ... but even for a globalist democratic administration in this scenario of "America alone" bankrolling the war there would be steadily increasing pressure to arrive at peace, whether or not the Ukrainians felt all of their war aims were satisfied.

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France uses very little Russian gas. It is primarily nuclear powered. Germany's actions confirm they are serious about weaning themselves off of Russian gas as quickly as possible without going into a recession. No way either makes a separate peace in defiance of the US and the rest of Europe, even if they could convince Putin and coerce Zelenskyy, which they can't. At most, we may see diplomatic posturing from Macron until he gets past France's legislative elections in June.

I wish there was a way to dump this in Germany's lap without the inevitable tragedy that would result for millions of Ukrainians (and potentially other peoples) and significant likelihood that it would eventually come back around to bite us in the ass. They're the ones who deserve to be dealing with this because they, as much as anyone, created this.

Rossticus said:

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I wish there was a way to dump this in Germany's lap without the inevitable tragedy that would result for millions of Ukrainians (and potentially other peoples) and significant likelihood that it would eventually come back around to bite us in the ass. They're the ones who deserve to be dealing with this because they, as much as anyone, created this.

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Yeah, that worked out well in 1914 and 1939. You know where we always end up.

Rossticus said:

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Just spoke w/ a senior European official about Ukraine and the situation in Bosnia and the broader Balkans. One of his comments sums up our conversation: "France is a problem. I mean, they're really a very big problem." Indeed.

— Jasmin Mujanović (@JasminMuj) May 13, 2022

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Surely he can't be thinking had Germany just been given Alsace Lorraine he wouldn't have kicked off WW2.

They are terrified of a cascading economic collapse. Ukraine losing separatist territory isn't a concern of theirs.

PeekingDuck said:

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They are terrified of a cascading economic collapse. Ukraine losing separatist territory isn't a concern of theirs.

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They have other options. Ukraine does not, and a full Ukrainian victory has better long-term benefits than a Russian full or incremental victory.

Biggest long term benefit - China sees the West is indeed dedicated to their goals. In their case, taking on Taiwan would jeopardize the spratleys and all other exotic territorial claims. All of which were rejected by international law.

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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The world leaders promoting an immediate ceasefire while Russia holds territory are repugnant. Ukraine has no reason to ceasefire. They have every reason to win. I'd like to see them singing the same tune while their country is literally being pillaged and raped. I doubt they would say the same things.

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Yah, it's like a violent criminal breaks into your home, kills half your family and the government tells you to let him keep your house and car - so he doesn't kill your remaining family members.

Absolute bull*****

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Certainly unfair but geopolitical realities aren't about what's just. We will see how Europe/NATO and the US change their position as the Russian advance peters out.

I'm very interested in looking at force ratios from this war, but Russia's invasion force was far smaller than the numbers here suggest (probably 80k troops in the 125 BTGs) and Russia's strategy didn't mass its forces at critical points. So it often did not achieve 3:1 or 2:1. https://t.co/qt4OF8N879

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 14, 2022

In some ways, we're only seeing a useful force ratio comparison in the fighting in the Donbas where Ukrainian forces are defending and Russian forces are conducting a deliberate, and better supported, offensive. But Russia doesn't appear to have a numerical advantage there. 3/

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 14, 2022

One of the biggest failures of Russia's strategy in Ukraine is that it failed to achieve favorable force ratios for the key objectives in this war (e.g. Kyiv).

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 14, 2022

Russia has oil, gas, nukes, and the now vanished specter of conventional warfare.

If we boycott them plus Europe and Japan and allied Asian counties, they're screwed. Goodbye aerospace industry goodbye defense industry.

Question for the more strategically educated:

It seems like Ukraine has several fixed positions in the East. Should these be considered weak by modern strategy by nature of them being so fixed? Would it be more ideal if they were more mobile? It seems like a fixed defense is one that gets surrounded and pulverized eventually.

Is Ukraine making the right plays around Severodonetsk?

The consensus is that offense defeats defense in general. If you don't have the ability to attack, dig in and defend. In fact if you're ever stationary, always be digging. Ukraine is still very much operating from a position of weakness which means defending for the most part.

Russian SIMs roaming in Ukraine. Gives you a good idea of the concentration of their forces. pic.twitter.com/L5gzD10oR3

— Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ (@ThreshedThought) May 12, 2022

Translation:

" The rabble that has seized Mariupol for the sake of entertainment shoots houses and crushes the cars of local residents with tanks.

It is obvious that the Russians did not come to protect, but to rob, kill and destroy. Defenders don't act that way"

Захватившее Мариуполь отребье ради развлечения расстреливает дома и давит танками машины местных жителей.

Очевидно, что россияне пришли не защищать, а грабить, убивать и разрушать. Защитники не ведут себя таким образом pic.twitter.com/SRdInHraiH

— Денис Казанський (@den_kazansky) May 13, 2022

ATX_AG_08 said:

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Russian SIMs roaming in Ukraine. Gives you a good idea of the concentration of their forces. pic.twitter.com/L5gzD10oR3

— Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ (@ThreshedThought) May 12, 2022

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Pardon my ignorance but what are SIMs?

TIA.

Saw Russia Bros making fun of Ukraine using these earlier today but seem like they could be really damn useful in specific situations.

Commander of the 🇬🇪 Georgian Legion on an ELEEK Atom electric bicycle in eastern 🇺🇦 Ukraine.

This electric bike is super useful since it can operate silently on the front lines or even behind enemy lines. pic.twitter.com/RAHXFlpHbA

— Visioner (@visionergeo) May 13, 2022

More golden Russian state televised talking points.

who is next, Europe? it’s better to #ArmUkraineNow than meet russian soldiers in NATO country pic.twitter.com/YsjXINi8J3

— Daria Kaleniuk (@dkaleniuk) May 14, 2022

Russia really trying to legitimize their annexation efforts.

" Vice Speaker of the State Duma Kuznetsova visited Kherson"

Вице-спикер Госдумы Кузнецова посетила Херсон https://t.co/byZ5fQa3Wq pic.twitter.com/XTgQSkOcOh

— РИА Новости (@rianru) May 14, 2022

Waffledynamics said:

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Question for the more strategically educated:

It seems like Ukraine has several fixed positions in the East. Should these be considered weak by modern strategy by nature of them being so fixed? Would it be more ideal if they were more mobile? It seems like a fixed defense is one that gets surrounded and pulverized eventually.

Is Ukraine making the right plays around Severodonetsk?

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Like chess you should have a combination of both. This is UKR home so theres obvious long term need to protect assets, slow down, and or channel attacks, while also supporting your attacks while utilizing what you have (territorial defense).

I think its very notable how much digging russia has done in the east. Imo they will be happy to end this now and maintain control of what they have. They have also clearly left infantry out front in trenches to act as Forward Observation Points providing target calls for artillery. UKR Mortar and drone teams have been hammering these and morale has to be very low for red.

We have seen various pushes by red but I believe these are mostly to maintain control of what they have. As the 06 said keeping UKR fixed in defense diminishes their offense.

The macron thing is sickening and worse we haven't heard much talk about new weapons aid, specifically artillery munition restocking. In general I get the feel the more UKR pushes east the more the worlds commitment to UKR sovereignty diminishes yet more and more destruction is laid upon locations that have zero direct influence on russia maintaining control in the east and is just pure evil. macron & company need to pull their head out of their asses.

The US is sending MANTAS T-Series Unmanned Surface Vessels (USV) to Ukraine. Different models do different tasks,including naval patrol,search & rescue,mine warfare & naval security as well as carry different payloads. https://t.co/XQLg8hriUS #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #PutinsWar pic.twitter.com/1jkUtwaIbL

— raging545 (@raging545) May 14, 2022

Through Constanta?

Lots of planes have been in the area.

aggiehawg said:

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Through Constanta?

Lots of planes have been in the area.

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Your guess is as good as mine on that one.

"A commercial quadcopter isn’t going to be in a dog fight with a Russian Sukhoi Su-35, but neither is that Su-35 well equipped to stop the quadcopter from carrying out an aerial attack." https://t.co/cfDZlwg4wJ

— Modern War Institute (@WarInstitute) May 14, 2022

The occupiers are beginning to prepare for the defense of the frontiers where they stopped. This shows that they decided to make the war long. According to Andrusiv, the invaders hope that the crises caused by the war will put the West at the negotiating table with Russia.

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) May 14, 2022

"The Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group ambushed a Russian military column and destroyed 3 enemy armored vehicles."

Українська диверсійно-розвідувальна група влаштувала засідку російській військовій колоні та знищила 3 бронетехніки ворога. pic.twitter.com/9bdbK0RJUS

— Ridnа_Vilnа 33% 🇺🇦 (@ua_ridna_vilna) May 14, 2022

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 14 May 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/tAa8K8A12w

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/Ya1mzfvjY4

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) May 14, 2022

Update for 13 May done on https://t.co/YKKYG1vWhk
Data: https://t.co/sB1tTfkLqU
Assessment: 🇷🇺 will likely reevaluate options following losses sustained in Siverskyi Donets crossing attempts. Main ground effort will possibly shift towards developing an offensive out of Popasna

— Henry Schlottman (@HN_Schlottman) May 14, 2022

I've never felt so much hate towards someone in my entire life

— Yana Morozova 🇺🇦 (@jane_in_vain) May 14, 2022

It is in the hands of 🇺🇦 and Int. community to end the impunity. This is a responsibility that we are carrying on our shoulders in relation to current and future generations. We allowed Russia way too long to go unpunished for its criminal actions. #AccountabilityForUkraine

— Iryna Venediktova (@VenediktovaIV) May 14, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 14 May 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/tAa8K8A12w

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/Ya1mzfvjY4

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) May 14, 2022

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thinking long term strategy- the Russians are actually in the EASY part of the campaign right now.

Good luck protecting a 700 mile new front line from partisan/insurgent attacks once Kherson and Mariupol are part of Mother Russia.

It will be impossible for the Russians to control the entire east as they are deployed now, they will have saboteurs crossing every day to hit Russian/occupying troops just like in Iraq/Afghanistan/Syria. And with the combat losses they have taken, it won't be easy to deploy 100,000 occupation troops and equipment.

Waffledynamics said:

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Question for the more strategically educated:

It seems like Ukraine has several fixed positions in the East. Should these be considered weak by modern strategy by nature of them being so fixed? Would it be more ideal if they were more mobile? It seems like a fixed defense is one that gets surrounded and pulverized eventually.

Is Ukraine making the right plays around Severodonetsk?

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You are ignoring the role of air power and air supremacy. much less the large role of tube artillery in the Russian order of battle.

If this was two evenly matched militaries then you would want to have a mobile force for deep penetration of the enemy positions. Using blitzkrieg tactics to create cauldrons and encirclements.

Here, the Ukes have no real air support, and they have to worry about Russian air attacks on their forces. Frankly, it's amazing how poorly the Russians are doing at CAS and interdiction.

If you are the Ukes, until you have a massive ground to air defense system and the ability to neutralize those vulnerabilities- you would want to hunker down so that the artillery and fixed wing attack craft can't take you out