***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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6:36p, 4/23/22
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Rossticus
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6:42p, 4/23/22
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AG81xx
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:56p, 4/23/22
AG
Rossticus said:


British food is enough to make you surrender
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:58p, 4/23/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
"Only enough troops"? By Russian standards? Considering they have vastly underestimated the competency of their forces thus far, my money is on the Ukes making a break out from there.
Would be amazing if the Ukes found a way to retake any section outside of the Azoph plant. They could resupply/reinforce and rebuild an offensive posture.

Destroy the whole "Mariupol Has Fallen" rhetoric and get some momentum back in the South, with forces grinding their way from the Kherson direction.

Yes wishful thinking. But I'm a glass half full, drink it up and smash it in the Russian's face kind of guy.
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Rossticus
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7:04p, 4/23/22




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aggiehawg
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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 7:15p, 4/23/22
AG
AGS-R-TUFF said:
aggiehawg said:
"Only enough troops"? By Russian standards? Considering they have vastly underestimated the competency of their forces thus far, my money is on the Ukes making a break out from there.
Would be amazing if the Ukes found a way to retake any section outside of the Azoph plant. They could resupply/reinforce and rebuild an offensive posture.

Destroy the whole "Mariupol Has Fallen" rhetoric and get some momentum back in the South, with forces grinding their way from the Kherson direction.

Yes wishful thinking. But I'm a glass half full, drink it up and smash it in the Russian's face kind of guy.
Well, history is on my side on that assessment. Every time the Russian command thinks they have "enough troops" they have not.
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:20p, 4/23/22
The biggest issue right now is that Russia has the ability to keep them pinned down with fires from both land and sea. Breaking out will be a difficult task without at least a partial mitigation of those elements first, IMO.
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Rossticus
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7:21p, 4/23/22
Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1517882168659304450.html

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Rossticus
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7:24p, 4/23/22
Edit: Wrong emote. Conflicting opinions as to whether Ukrainian or Russian aircraft. Haven't seen anything that appears definitive apart from Oryx's initial opinion at this juncture.



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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:28p, 4/23/22
AG
Rossticus said:
The biggest issue right now is that Russia has the ability to keep them pinned down with fires from both land and sea. Breaking out will be a difficult task without at least a partial mitigation of those elements first, IMO.
Ross, I've beaten this horse dead. But if the Russians redirect forces out of Mariupol, any creative resupply of food (at the very least) might buy enough time for something positive to happen for the defenders.

At the very least, it may make the Russians waste another zillion dollars in bombs on the Azoph fortress.

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Rossticus
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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 7:30p, 4/23/22
I totally agree. There's purportedly several weeks worth of supplies stockpiles in the subterranean network already so they've got some time to get creative and manufacture openings.
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Rossticus
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7:37p, 4/23/22
Just a liiiiiitle bit closer…

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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:42p, 4/23/22
AG
Rossticus said:
The biggest issue right now is that Russia has the ability to keep them pinned down with fires from both land and sea. Breaking out will be a difficult task without at least a partial mitigation of those elements first, IMO.
Not completely sure about that. Mariupol is rubble. And Ukraine versions of yoga mats thwart thermal vision.
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:49p, 4/23/22
aggiehawg said:
Rossticus said:
The biggest issue right now is that Russia has the ability to keep them pinned down with fires from both land and sea. Breaking out will be a difficult task without at least a partial mitigation of those elements first, IMO.
Not completely sure about that. Mariupol is rubble. And Ukraine versions of yoga mats thwart thermal vision.


Mind you, I'm not saying that they can't, I'm just saying that, in my opinion, they'll need a little help. There are also civilians with them that they have to be mindful of so I think that likely they continue opportunistic strikes on Russian positions outward from their fortified position(s) and bide their time, fixing as many Russian forces in the area as possible.
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Rossticus
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7:55p, 4/23/22
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Rossticus
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7:58p, 4/23/22




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Rossticus
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8:04p, 4/23/22
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MeatDr
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8:05p, 4/23/22
AG


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Waffledynamics
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8:27p, 4/23/22
AG
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Rossticus
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8:28p, 4/23/22
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Ulrich
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8:30p, 4/23/22
It seems like the thing to do at Azovstal is to hold out as long as the food and water does and hope for a raid from the outside. They are massively outnumbered (keeping a lot of Russians busy) but holding a great defensive position. Overextending gives up their only advantage and potentially frees some of those Russians up to go do something else.
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Rossticus
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11:18p, 4/23/22
Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1517959072791805953.html

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Eliminatus
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:11a, 4/24/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1517959072791805953.html

Good read and something I definitely noticed as well. Russia is still using massed-fires doctrine of artillery which is incredibly logistics intensive. Something they are struggling with as is. I also noticed a higher than normal dud rate over the last few weeks it seemed like and it's nice to see numbers now to it.

Once again goes to show that Russia is fighting in the past and the fact that Ukraine still exists is proof of it. Stuff like this gives me hope the Russian boogeyman is finally well and truly dead. Half the population base as us, far less manufacturing power especially in high tech products and outdated tactics and strategies. Russia needs to be pressed. Nukes be damned. Sweep the leg!


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deddog
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In reply to OKC~Ag • 12:12a, 4/24/22
AG
OKC~Ag said:
Rossticus said:
Waffledynamics said:
No. India is staying very neutral, as far as I can tell.


You can say "neutral" but I've seen stuff like this from a lot of Indians on Twitter. Interaction tonight:

"Says the slaves of US who is fighting their war"

"Ukranians are fighting for freedom because they took sides with US and started provoking Russia. Being a neighbour Ukraine should have had some responsibility. They didnt and now had to face the consequences.

The facts are there to be seen and read but the US thinks what it delivers are the facts just like how falsely labelled Soviet as cruel with their propaganda."

" US want to deploy military presence in Ukraine that rattled Russia.. challenging Russia national security. Russia reacted.
Ukraine is a scr@pG0at of west (US+UK - now also they don't want to stop war)
We condemned the war"
i don't understand indian neutrality...actually partial russian leaning stand...
talk about biting the hand that feeds you...their rise out of 3rd world status came from significant integration with west/ massive diaspara population in US enhancing India back home etc etc and their struggle with China and yet Indian partial leaning toward russia...I get that they want cheap oil but they should consider long term consequences...
They are considering the long term consequence.
The US is a notoriously fickle arms supplier that will abandon non-European allies whenever it is expedient. (See Vietnam, Afghanistan, Egypt, Pakistan) . In addition, it's hard to convince the average Indian that they need to pay even more for gas and foood, because two European nations are fighting each other when the US and Germany continue to buy oil/gas from Russia.
Are things horrendous? Are people being massacred? Are the Russians being genocidal? Yes you say? Then why isn't America sending in troops? Oh yeah. They aren't/

That's why India is skeptical. Send American troops into Ukraine, and I guarantee the Indians will support the US. .
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Rossticus
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12:20a, 4/24/22
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Rossticus
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12:26a, 4/24/22
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Rossticus
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12:28a, 4/24/22
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flakrat
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:31a, 4/24/22
AG
Man, these Russian families being fed endless misinformation propaganda, their boy sent off with crap training to be a meat shield.

I hope they eventually discover what happened to their boy. It wasn't for mother Russia, rather for the ego of a short broken man!
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Rossticus
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In reply to flakrat • 12:43a, 4/24/22
flakrat said:
Man, these Russian families being fed endless misinformation propaganda, their boy sent off with crap training to be a meat shield.

I hope they eventually discover what happened to their boy. It wasn't for mother Russia, rather for the ego of a short broken man!


A lot of them support it. Proud of their sons' sacrifice because they buy the bullisht. They really think they're fighting evil as opposed to representing it. But what should we expect? The alternative is to believe that they're the baddies and their guys died for nothing.

The thing is, there's an equal chance that, the more that die, the more insistent the Russian public becomes that full victory in Ukraine and against "the west" and its "puppets" is necessary such that their sacrifice wasn't in vain.
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Rossticus
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12:49a, 4/24/22
I mean, I'd like artillery in MY Easter basket… but nobody ever offered

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Rossticus
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12:54a, 4/24/22
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flakrat
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:59a, 4/24/22
AG
Rossticus said:

Ukraine civil air patrol :-)
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Rossticus
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1:02a, 4/24/22
Full Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1517787474818478080.html

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Rossticus
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1:34a, 4/24/22


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Rossticus
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1:37a, 4/24/22
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