***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Jayhawk
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 6:45p, 4/19/22
ABATTBQ11 said:
I don't really agree.

The South could have won the war had they not tried to take it to the North. That strategic change, from defender playing to their strengths on familiar ground to attacker against a superior force on unfamiliar ground is what did them in. Had they maintained their posture, Northern politics would have eventually ended the war. I don't see Ukraine committing that mistake. The South also wasn't getting more advanced weapons from other countries. Ukraine is getting a lot of logistical support and intelligence assistance.

I'm not sure Russia's strengths will work here. This is a high intensity proxy war. It's basically Vietnam. If Russia were fighting just Ukraine, yes, they could wear them down. However, they're fighting Ukraine, Europe, and the US. Ukraine is fighting a more efficient war thanks to western weapons and their defensive tactics. It's going to be hard for the Russians to "out die" the Ukrainians into submission.

The Russians can certainly be bled dry. It happened in Afghanistan. It could happen again here if Ukraine continues to play the South and play to their strengths.
Yes, which is why I called out their long land border as their most significant advantage. Also why I concluded with "nothing is decided" e.g. I am not saying the Russians will win, I just don't think a Ukrainian victory is determined or clearly probable yet.

Agree to disagree on the civil war, I think no amount of tactical success could have sustained the southerners indefinitely, the resource disparity was just too overwhelming, factor in the blockade, and the fact that the south was a pariah and nobody was coming to help and I think its just a matter of when.

The Russians have been underestimated many times after disastrous early showings. Imagine the two months from June 1941 to August 1941, by the end of summer there were something like a couple hundred thousand Soviet troops sitting in POW camps and Lord knows how many KIA. What is different now is it that the USSR's war effort was basically financed and resourced by the United States.. obviously they do not enjoy that advantage here.

I agree this is a proxy war, but it is actually a much higher intensity than Vietnam. The Russians will also not be operating with the self imposed limits that hampered the US in Vietnam, at least in terms of ROE's within Ukraine proper.
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black_ice
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In reply to Jayhawk • 6:49p, 4/19/22
Jayhawk said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
I don't really agree.

The South could have won the war had they not tried to take it to the North. That strategic change, from defender playing to their strengths on familiar ground to attacker against a superior force on unfamiliar ground is what did them in. Had they maintained their posture, Northern politics would have eventually ended the war. I don't see Ukraine committing that mistake. The South also wasn't getting more advanced weapons from other countries. Ukraine is getting a lot of logistical support and intelligence assistance.

I'm not sure Russia's strengths will work here. This is a high intensity proxy war. It's basically Vietnam. If Russia were fighting just Ukraine, yes, they could wear them down. However, they're fighting Ukraine, Europe, and the US. Ukraine is fighting a more efficient war thanks to western weapons and their defensive tactics. It's going to be hard for the Russians to "out die" the Ukrainians into submission.

The Russians can certainly be bled dry. It happened in Afghanistan. It could happen again here if Ukraine continues to play the South and play to their strengths.
Yes, which is why I called out their long land border as their most significant advantage. Also why I concluded with "nothing is decided" e.g. I am not saying the Russians will win, I just don't think a Ukrainian victory is determined or clearly probable yet.

Agree to disagree on the civil war, I think no amount of tactical success could have sustained the southerners indefinitely, the resource disparity was just too overwhelming, factor in the blockade, and the fact that the south was a pariah and nobody was coming to help and I think its just a matter of when.

The Russians have been underestimated many times after disastrous early showings. Imagine the two months from June 1941 to August 1941, by the end of summer there were something like a couple hundred thousand Soviet troops sitting in POW camps and Lord knows how many KIA. What is different now is it that the USSR's war effort was basically financed and resourced by the United States.. obviously they do not enjoy that advantage here.

I agree this is a proxy war, but it is actually a much higher intensity than Vietnam. The Russians will also not be operating with the self imposed limits that hampered the US in Vietnam, at least in terms of ROE's within Ukraine proper.




Excellent points. Well done.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Jayhawk • 7:20p, 4/19/22
AG
This IS much higher intensity than Vietnam, meaning the Russians will face fault resupply and political challenges the US didn't face.

They're burning through materials and equipment at a quick pace, so the conflict is unsustainable long term. Russia's defense industry is also affected by sanctions, so they will have trouble replacing a lot of what is being lost right now.

Their lack of restraint has also led to sanctions we did not face on Vietnam. Putin says sanctions are having no effect, but Moscow's mayor is saying the city is looking at losing 200k jobs if sanctions keep up. And that's in addition to the aforementioned defense industry issues. Eventually, this will become a political headache and Russians will have to weigh the cost of continued fighting in both blood and treasure to "liberate" people who obviously don't want to be liberated.


It's conceptually the same, but instead of a hot but smoldering conflict this is a bonfire. I think the outcome may eventually be the same, where domestic political pressure demands a withdrawal.

Or this offensive is complete failure, the Russian army's back is broken, and Ukraine retakes their territory.



The Russians do not enjoy many advantages here. When fighting on their own, they don't do well. It's when someone else is providing the money and the logistics and they're left to do the fighting and dying that they are successful. Their problem is that war is more than just fighting and dying, but that's all they're really good at. I don't think it's so much that they've been underestimated in the past so much that their outside support has been underestimated.
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Waffledynamics
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7:23p, 4/19/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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7:28p, 4/19/22
AG
The Russians raise a flag of the Soviet dictatorship in the Ukrainian city of Kherson


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BoDog
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:45p, 4/19/22
AG
Rossticus said:
docb said:
I'm all for giving Ukraine whatever it takes to win this war. If we are not going to give them a sufficient number of jets than what are the alternatives to make it really sticky for Russian plane at higher altitude to feel very uncomfortable. I'm afraid that if Russia wins this conflict it will just open up a can of worms for the future. Especially with China.


Agreed. It also gives Russia a significant strategic advantage for any future potential engagements with Europe as well as additional Industrial, Agricultural, and energy reserves for either direct action or allied material support of Chinese action and a combined ability to withstand the impact of economic sanctions. A Russian victory eventually makes Russia and China stronger, more resilient, and emboldened as a result.
Define "eventually"? Regardless of how this shakes out the Rooskies are in bad shape both militarily and economically. With what they will have left, I think the US Coast Guard and Merchant Marines could invade Moscow if they so desired.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:45p, 4/19/22
Russians have been throwing the Soviet flag up wherever they can in Ukraine. They're not hiding it. None of this is about "liberation", "security" , or any of the other bullisht Putin and his propagandists tried to peddle leading up to this. It's about power, conquest, control, and forcing "inferior" peoples and countries back under the boot of Russia.
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Waffledynamics
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7:47p, 4/19/22
AG
I wish the Ukrainians had artillery for some massive barrages on the Russians piled up in the East. Sounds like they're ripe for the picking with sufficient weaponry.
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MouthBQ98
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7:56p, 4/19/22
AG
Russia might revert to taking Ukraine a nibble at a time over decades.

They probably can't win too much more right now, but Ukraine doesn't have the capacity to go over to a general offensive and push the Russians out, and with their economy and infrastructure heavily damaged, they'll be heavily dependent on foreign aid for years to come.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:00p, 4/19/22
AG
If Putin wants a new Soviet Union, it's not happening. This war has shown they're too poor and western weapons will rip them apart. They'd have to go through too many NATO countries, and if they think a proxy war in Ukraine is bad, just wait until they're in a real war.
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Rossticus
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 8:01p, 4/19/22
They don't even necessarily have to drag it out that long depending on how much of the east they manage to secure and when Europeans wilt and lift sanctions.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 8:05p, 4/19/22
AG
That may be true, but I think the foreign aid will include military systems and training that Russia will struggle to match. Russia may nibble, but Ukraine will become poisonous. Even bears learn not to eat poisonous fruit.
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Jetpilot86
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 8:06p, 4/19/22
AG
MouthBQ98 said:
Russia might revert to taking Ukraine a nibble at a time over decades.

They probably can't win too much more right now, but Ukraine doesn't have the capacity to go over to a general offensive and push the Russians out, and with their economy and infrastructure heavily damaged, they'll be heavily dependent on foreign aid for years to come.
If Zehlan is right, they don't have decades. See YouTube's I've posted in the last 5 pagers or so.
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black_ice
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 8:19p, 4/19/22
ABATTBQ11 said:
That may be true, but I think the foreign aid will include military systems and training that Russia will struggle to match. Russia may nibble, but Ukraine will become poisonous. Even bears learn not to eat poisonous fruit.


Brilliant!
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Rossticus
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 8:30p, 4/19/22
ABATTBQ11 said:
If Putin wants a new Soviet Union, it's not happening. This war has shown they're too poor and western weapons will rip them apart. They'd have to go through too many NATO countries, and if they think a proxy war in Ukraine is bad, just wait until they're in a real war.


Too weak now and in the near future, sure. My concern is what they do after sanctions are lifted and lessons are learned. My guess is you see a massive Russian commitment to not only rebuilding their military but reimagining it on a grander scale and reforming the shortcomings (at least temporarily) that led to the current debacle. It's what happens after that that makes me wonder.
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BkYdPitmaster
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:34p, 4/19/22
AG
Rossticus said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
If Putin wants a new Soviet Union, it's not happening. This war has shown they're too poor and western weapons will rip them apart. They'd have to go through too many NATO countries, and if they think a proxy war in Ukraine is bad, just wait until they're in a real war.


Too weak now and in the near future, sure. My concern is what they do after sanctions are lifted and lessons are learned. My guess is you see a massive Russian commitment to not only rebuilding their military but reimagining it on a grander scale and reforming the shortcomings (at least temporarily) that led to the current debacle. It's what happens after that that makes me wonder.
What indicates that sanctions would ever be lifted? I don't see that anytime even long term.
Backyard Pitmaster
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shiftyandquick
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:35p, 4/19/22
Rossticus said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
If Putin wants a new Soviet Union, it's not happening. This war has shown they're too poor and western weapons will rip them apart. They'd have to go through too many NATO countries, and if they think a proxy war in Ukraine is bad, just wait until they're in a real war.


Too weak now and in the near future, sure. My concern is what they do after sanctions are lifted and lessons are learned. My guess is you see a massive Russian commitment to not only rebuilding their military but reimagining it on a grander scale and reforming the shortcomings (at least temporarily) that led to the current debacle. It's what happens after that that makes me wonder.
That's why we need to defeat them now. As in defeat them forever. They will never be weaker than now, and we don't have to take the blame for it.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:36p, 4/19/22
AG
How are they going to pay for it? Bridging the technology gap and producing western weapon equivalents is going to take resources I'm not sure they possess.
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Rossticus
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In reply to BkYdPitmaster • 8:37p, 4/19/22
Because politicians and their constituents tend to memory hole things quickly when it's economically and politically convenient.
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Rossticus
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In reply to agent-maroon • 8:39p, 4/19/22
agent-maroon said:
How are they going to pay for it? Bridging the technology gap and producing western weapon equivalents is going to take resources I'm not sure they possess.


I don't trust us to keep up direct sanctions long enough to permanently cripple their military nor extend sanctions to China when they begin helping them rebuild. I'm extremely cynical of European and American resolve in the long haul.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:46p, 4/19/22
AG
Rossticus said:
agent-maroon said:
How are they going to pay for it? Bridging the technology gap and producing western weapon equivalents is going to take resources I'm not sure they possess.


I don't trust us to keep up direct sanctions long enough to permanently cripple their military nor extend sanctions to China when they begin helping them rebuild. I'm extremely cynical of European and American resolve in the long haul.
They were already behind when their economy was intact, even without the sanctions. I would think that they would have spent the money already if they had ever had it to spend.

But I agree with you on the sanctions. Germany will lift whatever sanctions they have the minute the air starts to chill in October.
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Bird Poo
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:51p, 4/19/22
AG
They will trade their oil for Chinese weapons, IMO.
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JB!98
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In reply to Bird Poo • 8:54p, 4/19/22
AG
PearlJammin said:
They will trade their oil for Chinese weapons, IMO.
I am not too sure that we are not overestimating China in the same way that we overestimated Russia. Most all of China's stuff are Russian knockoffs. If there tech is anything like their tires then they may not be of that much use to Ivan.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
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SPF250
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In reply to JB!98 • 9:05p, 4/19/22
AG
The design for some of China's stuff is stolen from us.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Rossticus • 9:07p, 4/19/22
AG
Rossticus said:
agent-maroon said:
How are they going to pay for it? Bridging the technology gap and producing western weapon equivalents is going to take resources I'm not sure they possess.


I don't trust us to keep up direct sanctions long enough to permanently cripple their military nor extend sanctions to China when they begin helping them rebuild. I'm extremely cynical of European and American resolve in the long haul.


Regardless, they still don't have the money. They couldn't afford the ****ty military they're fielding right now. All of their advanced weapons systems have been delayed and basically shelved because they couldn't pay for them.

And after this, they're going to be hurting even worse than they were before. Economic sanctions may be lifted, but I doubt some of the military supply chain sanctions will. They'll have to replace literally thousands of cruise missiles and untold numbers of MLRS rockets and other munitions.

They can't afford a rebuild. They may not even be able to restock.
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JB!98
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In reply to SPF250 • 9:12p, 4/19/22
AG
SPF250 said:
The design for some of China's stuff is stolen from us.
True, but they still suffer from the failure of their manufacturing process based upon those designs. Their aviation components have terrible engines for example. They like the Russians cannot figure out engine technology.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
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Robk
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9:18p, 4/19/22
With Kirby's fixed-wing comment earlier. Probably nothing but others might have more insight.

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revvie
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9:23p, 4/19/22
AG
i saw an earlier post that listed countries help to Ukraine as a percentage of GNP. They need to step up to the plate. Sweden has contributed more than two thirds of NATO members.
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Ulysses90
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In reply to Jayhawk • 9:36p, 4/19/22
AG
Quote:
All that to say, its only been 2 months.. we have not gone long enough for Russia's traditional military strengths to kick in; those are 1) the ability to take repeated defeats and sustain an army in the field and 2) grinding their opponent down by virtue of attrition.


I don't believe that in actual fact those are Russian military strengths.

Russia has to protect its borders to the east and west. They have poured their best units down a funnel in Ukraine and have little to show for it. The fact that they withdrew on the Kyiv front is proof that they cannot absorb repeated defeats. Their forces appear to be 25% under the reported strength because of corruption. Shoigu and Gerasimov lied to Putin about the state of the Russian Army. It was so weak on day 1 that many units were staffed by conscripts which Putin didn't know until he Ukrainians started posting interviews with untrained 19 year Olds whose officers abandoned them. The data point posted a couple of dozen pages ago about a dead Russian BMP crewed by three Lieutenants (none of them from combat arms specialties) is a sign of catastrophe in a Russian Army that has taken so many defeats that they are crumbling.

On the second point, he Russians do have a huge ability to grind down the civilian population in the cities to which they have laid siege but they have been far less successful against the Ukrainian army and territorial defense forces. Russia began the war with a force that numbered 200k on paper but appears to have been loser to 150k because it was hollowed out by corruption. The Ukrainians began with a minimum of 650k of forces that were in the military, territorial defense forces, or military veterans below the age of 50. None of those trigger pullers are sitting this out (except the guy from Dancing With The Stars). They are in a war for survival against an enemy that has declared that they will all be killed or Gulagged to achieve "denazification."

He Russians can grind down only what they can range with their artillery and air and both of those capabilities diminishes daily. Ukraine isn't replacing its human losses but, they have a lot more people inside the borders of Ukraine that are able to fight. They are more than replacing their equipment losses. I believe the fractional exchange ratio favors the Ukrainians, not the Russians.

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Ragoo
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In reply to JB!98 • 10:12p, 4/19/22
AG
JB!98 said:
SPF250 said:
The design for some of China's stuff is stolen from us.
True, but they still suffer from the failure of their manufacturing process based upon those designs. Their aviation components have terrible engines for example. They like the Russians cannot figure out engine technology.
they are good at replicating but they don't have the creative thought to innovate. I've seen it first hand with manufacturing in China.
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MeatDr
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10:13p, 4/19/22
AG
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wangus12
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In reply to MeatDr • 10:26p, 4/19/22
AG
Slava Ukraine
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Sully Dog
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In reply to JB!98 • 10:29p, 4/19/22
JB!98 said:
PearlJammin said:
They will trade their oil for Chinese weapons, IMO.
I am not too sure that we are not overestimating China in the same way that we overestimated Russia. Most all of China's stuff are Russian knockoffs. If there tech is anything like their tires then they may not be of that much use to Ivan.
underestimate China at your peril.
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to MeatDr • 10:32p, 4/19/22
AG
MeatDr said:
This is exaggeration. The battlefront in that specific area may be the case. However, this is a very small area. Ukraine needs more successes or this minor victory will mean nothing.
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Rossticus
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10:35p, 4/19/22
Could this be any more Hitler-ish? Yeeeesh.

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