***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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10:44p, 4/19/22
Scholz clearly erring on the side of preserving Germany's relationship with Russia for the sake of future business.

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516453725916827649.html

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ATX_AG_08
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:45p, 4/19/22
AG
So much cringe. No way to reason with a population like this. Give Ukraine everything they ask for.

And do it yesterday.
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Sully Dog
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:47p, 4/19/22
Waffledynamics said:
Here's an interesting video about troop counts. A bit interesting. I'd be curious to hear thoughts from here.

These numbers seem really low given the Ukrainian losses in Mariupol.
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
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aeroag14
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:48p, 4/19/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Could this be any more Hitler-ish? Yeeeesh.



Yeah, there's really no other way to slice this other than taking a play out of Hitlers playbook
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AlaskanAg99
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:49p, 4/19/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Could this be any more Hitler-ish? Yeeeesh.



Eat **** ****faces. AK is mine!
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10thYrSr
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 10:55p, 4/19/22
MouthBQ98 said:
Russia might revert to taking Ukraine a nibble at a time over decades.

They probably can't win too much more right now, but Ukraine doesn't have the capacity to go over to a general offensive and push the Russians out, and with their economy and infrastructure heavily damaged, they'll be heavily dependent on foreign aid for years to come.


That is not possible with RUS demographics. They do not have the manpower to do this. Their replacement rate was already incredibly low before the war. There is no way they can fight a protracted war with the population they have now. It will take at least 50 years with encouragement of RUS women to have large families. Not to mention the fact that education in RUS is near zero and the trade schools they had in the past are no longer functional. They are producing less people and the people they do have are simple. This is the last war RUS will fight. They simply won't be able to do this again for quite some time.
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MeatDr
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10:57p, 4/19/22
AG
Seems like they had a much quieter night. It's about 7am in Kiev now.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rossticus • 11:04p, 4/19/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Scholz clearly erring on the side of preserving Germany's relationship with Russia for the sake of future business.

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516453725916827649.html

What a lousy answer. This will lead to a rift in NATO. Western Europe never should have ****ed themselves to Russia, but "muh green agenda". Now, Russia invades Ukraine, and the Germans who have the most leverage would rather play footsie with Russia.
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10thYrSr
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In reply to Sully Dog • 11:14p, 4/19/22
Sully Dog said:
JB!98 said:
PearlJammin said:
They will trade their oil for Chinese weapons, IMO.
I am not too sure that we are not overestimating China in the same way that we overestimated Russia. Most all of China's stuff are Russian knockoffs. If there tech is anything like their tires then they may not be of that much use to Ivan.
underestimate China at your peril.


One thing that was interesting to me regarding Chinese nuclear power: they only have 350 nuclear missiles, but they have not adopted the use of sub megaton weapons. Some of their nukes are in the 3-5 megaton range, which are absolutely devastating. One 5 megaton nuke would be enough to turn everything inside 610 in Houston to rubble. The fireball would reach beyond beltway 8. Windows in Sugarland and cypress would be broken by the blast.
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Rossticus
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11:49p, 4/19/22
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wangus12
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:04a, 4/20/22
AG
Rossticus said:


So are we simply giving them full planes that need to be put together
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Rossticus
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In reply to wangus12 • 12:09a, 4/20/22
"No Vladimir. We did not give them planes. We gave them a bunch of parts. We can't help it if they put them together to build planes. We had no idea they might do that. Sorry to hear about your smoldering MiGs and SUs."
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cbr
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In reply to 10thYrSr • 12:20a, 4/20/22
AG
10thYrSr said:
MouthBQ98 said:
Russia might revert to taking Ukraine a nibble at a time over decades.

They probably can't win too much more right now, but Ukraine doesn't have the capacity to go over to a general offensive and push the Russians out, and with their economy and infrastructure heavily damaged, they'll be heavily dependent on foreign aid for years to come.


That is not possible with RUS demographics. They do not have the manpower to do this. Their replacement rate was already incredibly low before the war. There is no way they can fight a protracted war with the population they have now. It will take at least 50 years with encouragement of RUS women to have large families. Not to mention the fact that education in RUS is near zero and the trade schools they had in the past are no longer functional. They are producing less people and the people they do have are simple. This is the last war RUS will fight. They simply won't be able to do this again for quite some time.
Youve been reading too much ziehan.

Even at their current state, they still have over 13 million people aged 18-30 iirc, maybe more. They could put 5 million people into service. Losing 50k of them so far doesnt make a very big macro dent.
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Rossticus
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12:22a, 4/20/22
Full Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516590740847181824.html



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Bag
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:32a, 4/20/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Could this be any more Hitler-ish? Yeeeesh.

"will return alaska..."

um, no
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Rossticus
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12:33a, 4/20/22
Full Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516521193808875527.html

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Rossticus
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12:45a, 4/20/22
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Rossticus
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12:47a, 4/20/22
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Rossticus
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12:53a, 4/20/22
Because it was brought up a page or two back…

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74OA
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4:30a, 4/20/22
AG
In addition to absolutely vital intelligence, here's a list of what we've given Ukraine so far. BILLIONS
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MeatDr
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4:47a, 4/20/22
AG
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LMCane
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In reply to 10thYrSr • 5:44a, 4/20/22
10thYrSr said:
MouthBQ98 said:
Russia might revert to taking Ukraine a nibble at a time over decades.

They probably can't win too much more right now, but Ukraine doesn't have the capacity to go over to a general offensive and push the Russians out, and with their economy and infrastructure heavily damaged, they'll be heavily dependent on foreign aid for years to come.


That is not possible with RUS demographics. They do not have the manpower to do this. Their replacement rate was already incredibly low before the war. There is no way they can fight a protracted war with the population they have now. It will take at least 50 years with encouragement of RUS women to have large families. Not to mention the fact that education in RUS is near zero and the trade schools they had in the past are no longer functional. They are producing less people and the people they do have are simple. This is the last war RUS will fight. They simply won't be able to do this again for quite some time.
you left out the fact that 300,000 Russians have fled Mother Russia in the last year.

and it's not the dumb and poor ones who are able to get to the West.
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Ulysses90
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In reply to cbr • 5:50a, 4/20/22
AG
cbr said:
10thYrSr said:
MouthBQ98 said:
Russia might revert to taking Ukraine a nibble at a time over decades.

They probably can't win too much more right now, but Ukraine doesn't have the capacity to go over to a general offensive and push the Russians out, and with their economy and infrastructure heavily damaged, they'll be heavily dependent on foreign aid for years to come.


That is not possible with RUS demographics. They do not have the manpower to do this. Their replacement rate was already incredibly low before the war. There is no way they can fight a protracted war with the population they have now. It will take at least 50 years with encouragement of RUS women to have large families. Not to mention the fact that education in RUS is near zero and the trade schools they had in the past are no longer functional. They are producing less people and the people they do have are simple. This is the last war RUS will fight. They simply won't be able to do this again for quite some time.
Youve been reading too much ziehan.

Even at their current state, they still have over 13 million people aged 18-30 iirc, maybe more. They could put 5 million people into service. Losing 50k of them so far doesnt make a very big macro dent.


An additional 5 million in uniform would still be less than half the size of the US Army during WW2. It would put essentially that entire generation into uniform which means they would generate no economic output.

Assuming they did try to conscript 5 million, how would they be equipped and trained? The Rozvgardia units are already using Soviet Era equipment and get their ass kicked every time the face the Ukrainian. In WW2, the Soviet Union had an open floodgates of equipment from the US though Lend-Lease. Lend-Lease is now channeled to Ukraine.

The semi-annual conscription of 130-150k in Russia is producing a ****ty force. Trying to scale that up to even 500k would be impossible for them especially with their military equipment production lines nearing paralysis.

The list of Russia's military options is quickly narrowing down to nukes.
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TexasAggie_02
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In reply to wangus12 • 6:19a, 4/20/22
AG
wangus12 said:
Rossticus said:


So are we simply giving them full planes that need to be put together


Ghost planes
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80sGeorge
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:24a, 4/20/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
Speaking to West Point cadets and faculty, Dr. Phillip Karber describes what he has learned about the Russian way of war from thirty trips he has made to Ukraine, including six months on the front lines of the war in the country's east. (In 2018)


Very interesting. It's hard to reconcile the Dr's observed experience of Russian capabilities in 2018 vs the results in 2022.

We're both the Russians and Ukes good back then? Are the Russians not able to scale up in 2022 but the Ukes can?

Thanks
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benchmark
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In reply to Ulysses90 • 7:17a, 4/20/22
AG
Ulysses90 said:
The semi-annual conscription of 130-150k in Russia is producing a ****ty force. Trying to scale that up to even 500k would be impossible for them especially with their military equipment production lines nearing paralysis.

The list of Russia's military options is quickly narrowing down to nukes.
This^. For the foreseeable future, Russia's military simply isn't scalable much beyond what we've already seen. Regardless of the quality or quantity of their personnel, they may have too many limitations with their supply chain - materiel, equipment, weapons, supplies, etc.

Which brings us to a big question ... what happens if their offensive stalls or fails?
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black_ice
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In reply to benchmark • 7:37a, 4/20/22
benchmark said:
Ulysses90 said:
The semi-annual conscription of 130-150k in Russia is producing a ****ty force. Trying to scale that up to even 500k would be impossible for them especially with their military equipment production lines nearing paralysis.

The list of Russia's military options is quickly narrowing down to nukes.
This^. For the foreseeable future, Russia's military simply isn't scalable much beyond what we've already seen. Regardless of the quality or quantity of their personnel, they may have too many limitations with their supply chain - materiel, equipment, weapons, supplies, etc.

Which brings us to a big question ... what happens if their offensive stalls or fails?



The answer will be nukes.
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TheVarian
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:47a, 4/20/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Could this be any more Hitler-ish? Yeeeesh.



I like how they call out Japan subtly and then America openly.

This war is showing us that they just have numbers like ants with 0 intelligence. Hell, that's an insult to the intelligence of ant colonies.
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bonfarr
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8:02a, 4/20/22
AG
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10733677/Moskva-sinking-Did-supply-Kyiv-location-Black-Sea-flag-ship.html

Quote:
According to The Times, a US marine surveillance P-8 Poseidon aircraft, was tracking Moskva in the hours before it was attacked before supplying its location to the Ukrainian military.

The Boeing-made aircraft is based upon the Boeing 737-800 jet - which is widely used by airlines such as Ryanair.

However, instead of passengers, the Poseidon is packed with state-of-the-art surveillance equipment which can track surface vessels and submarines at ranges of more than 100 miles.



Interesting, there was a lot of speculation about how the Ukes located the Moskva. I would post the article in the Times of London referenced but it is behind a pay wall.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:21a, 4/20/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Rossticus said:
Scholz clearly erring on the side of preserving Germany's relationship with Russia for the sake of future business.

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516453725916827649.html

What a lousy answer. This will lead to a rift in NATO. Western Europe never should have ****ed themselves to Russia, but "muh green agenda". Now, Russia invades Ukraine, and the Germans who have the most leverage would rather play footsie with Russia.


They're right. Give them what they know. If the Russians have taught us anything, it's that even advanced weapons do no good if they're not employed right.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:25a, 4/20/22
AG
Lol. Good luck ***holes.
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Cannon Crew Ag
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:02a, 4/20/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Rossticus said:
Scholz clearly erring on the side of preserving Germany's relationship with Russia for the sake of future business.

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516453725916827649.html

What a lousy answer. This will lead to a rift in NATO. Western Europe never should have ****ed themselves to Russia, but "muh green agenda". Now, Russia invades Ukraine, and the Germans who have the most leverage would rather play footsie with Russia.
If anything, this should galvanize Western Europe, and really Europe as a whole even more towards nuclear energy over the next decade if they can keep the sanctions up. Two birds with one stone; clean energy that can appease their green agenda, and removal of their reliance on Russian oil so that they no longer have any major consumers to sell to besides China and India. India is already growing nuke energy, but if that can be scaled up even more, then that's all the better.
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deddog
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In reply to Rossticus • 9:10a, 4/20/22
AG
Rossticus said:

He's right on the tanks. It makes no sense to introduce Leopard tanks to Ukraine at this juncture. Would require training crews (especially on maintaining the leopards) and any advantage in urban combat would be nullified by the Ukes having a completely new and complex weapon system. Not to mention that Leopards are heavier than Russian tanks, and so they would be tactically limited in where they could operate and how they are transported.

Just give the Ukes everything the former Soviet states have.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Cannon Crew Ag • 9:11a, 4/20/22
AG
A big part of the problem is natural gas and other petro products being used as feedstock for a lot of industrial and chemical processes. You can't replace that with nuclear plants.
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benchmark
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 9:15a, 4/20/22
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
They're right. Give them what they know. If the Russians have taught us anything, it's that even advanced weapons do no good if they're not employed right.
These are the same bozos that offered 5,000 helmets a few months ago. By most accounts, the US is providing >70% of the financial, humanitarian, and military aid. In terms of GDP, the largest European economies (Germany, France, and Italy) are at best, freeloaders ... and at worst, enablers.
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