deddog said:

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aezmvp said:

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AGS-R-TUFF said:

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MeatDr said:

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⚡️Special groups began to storm the Azovstal steel plant in #Mariupol.

This was announced by Eduard Basurin, a representative of the so-called "Interior Ministry of the '#Donetsk People's Republic'". pic.twitter.com/Vukva1ObJR

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 19, 2022

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Hope all this makes sense!

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Thanks for the explanation.

Is there a reason the Russians can't bypass the plant and take the rest of the city.

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They already have control over most of the city except a small section in the West of the town. The problem with leaving several thousand determined, experienced and motivated troops in your rear near the main transport links between Rostov-on-Don and Crimea (land link) is that you are subject to ambushes, IEDs, and these troops are really, really dedicated to still be there and who knows how much in resources they have stashed down there?

It's basically asking to have a Red Dawn resistance screwing up your rear. They can't really bypass and just leave them. They will need to clear them out.

Edit: I would also add I don't believe "no military usage planned" even for a minute. Azov group is incredibly influential down there and have known they were in the Russian crosshairs for 8 years. That's a bunch of bunk.

dtkprowler said:

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the old "assembled" in the USA comes to mind. Maybe we could deliver 99% aircraft and they have to add the sticker to the dashboard or something

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That's exactly what I was thinking when I read that.

Ulrich said:

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I don't know the first thing about Nance but my BS meter is pegged.

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Why is NBC treating this guy seriously? Good lord. https://t.co/9it3407qvp

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) April 19, 2022

Great map summary of all the Russian offensives around Izyum/Slovyansk over the past 24 hours.

The Russian army went on the offensive in Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions – Ministry of Defence of Ukraine

Ukrainian defenders stopped the Russians in most directions (marked with dashed arrows on my map). The invaders had partial success out from Kreminna (solid arrow). pic.twitter.com/EOInfD6Wsg

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) April 19, 2022

PJYoung said:

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Ulrich said:

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I don't know the first thing about Nance but my BS meter is pegged.

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Why is NBC treating this guy seriously? Good lord. https://t.co/9it3407qvp

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) April 19, 2022

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A little hokey yes, but the captions in that tweet are not accurate.

How a former US Navy sailor became a Putin propagandist https://t.co/LdRsIrMMuX

— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) April 19, 2022

Seems like this offensive has little if any momentum. Wondering if it turns into a ****show that just has a lot of dead Russians.

Thanks for cleaning up the thread staff

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Seems like this offensive has little if any momentum. Wondering if it turns into a ****show that just has a lot of dead Russians.

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We can only hope, but its probably to early to tell.

Russian missile launches into Ukraine have plateaued around 30 a day over the course of the 54-day conflict.

That's way down from the 50 a day average 🇷🇺 was firing in the early going.

But Ukraine has been obscured by clouds, limiting U.S. visibility. https://t.co/x462TC4BXn

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 19, 2022

This is from President Biden's recently announced $800 million military aid package for Ukraine that includes artillery, drones, and more anti-tank weapons.

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 19, 2022

Full Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516482101159284743.html

First off, DoD officials briefed on weapons going into Ukraine.

The turnaround from U.S. to the battlefield in Ukraine is moving as quickly as 48 - 72 hours.

But we're not getting much fidelity on whether U.S. is providing 🇺🇦 enough ammo.https://t.co/TW8pHEMP5X

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 19, 2022

It is, but if Russia is throwing everything they have at them, I would think we'd see some big breakthroughs.

richardag said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Well now I feel better. Or do I not trust this?

Quote:

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Moscow is not considering using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said.

In an interview with India Today, Lavrov said his country's forces would use "conventional weapons only," according to state news agency Interfax.

Although he is not directly responsible for military decision-making, his comments are among the most direct so far on the prospect of Russia escalating the conflict into a nuclear one.

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Quote:

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Soon after announcing his invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces be placed on high alert.

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Quote:

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Lavrov suggested that nuclear weapons were not part of the Kremlin's strategy as he referred to how the war is entering a new phase, which chimes with Ukraine's assessment that Moscow had started a new offensive in the Donbas region overnight Monday.

On Tuesday, Russian forces were attacking Ukrainian positions along the entire 300-mile front line in the eastern Donbas region, as Ukrainian president Volodymr Zelensky announced that a new Russian offensive in the east had begun.

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Link

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Will be interesting on what happens or doesn't happen to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

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docb said:

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I'm all for giving Ukraine whatever it takes to win this war. If we are not going to give them a sufficient number of jets than what are the alternatives to make it really sticky for Russian plane at higher altitude to feel very uncomfortable. I'm afraid that if Russia wins this conflict it will just open up a can of worms for the future. Especially with China.

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Agreed. It also gives Russia a significant strategic advantage for any future potential engagements with Europe as well as additional Industrial, Agricultural, and energy reserves for either direct action or allied material support of Chinese action and a combined ability to withstand the impact of economic sanctions. A Russian victory eventually makes Russia and China stronger, more resilient, and emboldened as a result.

Rossticus said:

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Full Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516482101159284743.html

First off, DoD officials briefed on weapons going into Ukraine.

The turnaround from U.S. to the battlefield in Ukraine is moving as quickly as 48 - 72 hours.

But we're not getting much fidelity on whether U.S. is providing 🇺🇦 enough ammo.https://t.co/TW8pHEMP5X

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 19, 2022

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Full thread is worth a read.

3 Blackhawks flying random patterns around western Poland. Any chance they are acting as targets for Ukrainians being trained to use their new SAM systems?

(Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to announce within the coming days another military aid package for Ukraine about the same size as the $800 million one announced last week, multiple sources familiar with the decision said on Tuesday.

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 19, 2022

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Seems like this offensive has little if any momentum. Wondering if it turns into a ****show that just has a lot of dead Russians.

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How can the offensive possibly lose momentum when you've attacked on so many fronts at the same time?

With Mariupol occupied, and the Russians on 2-3 fronts now, I'm a bit more concerned.

HTownAg98 said:

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With Mariupol occupied, and the Russians on 2-3 fronts now, I'm a bit more concerned.

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More concerned than 55 days ago when they weren't supposed to last more than 3 days?

They were much worse off when Russian troops were on the outskirts of the capital and taking ground in the north, northeast, east, and south. High probability Ukraine still falls. But they are in a much better position today than on day 1.

Many wars have been characterized by an underdog inflicting stinging tactical defeats on the larger power in the opening stages, only for time and attrition to force the inevitable outcome. The Winter War in Finland is a good example, the Finns did not "win" that war contrary to popular imagination, they ceded disputed territory to come to terms (although they preserved their government and didn't end up as a communist puppet state so it wasn't an outright defeat).

This war also sort of reminds me of the early stages of the US Civil War.. the larger power arrogantly blunders forth confident that superiority in numbers and the supposed rag tag nature of the opposition will by itself guarantee victory, only to have devastating defeats inflicted upon them by a tactically superior enemy with a better knowledge of the terrain. You could argue there is an analogue between the ill fates attempt on Kyiv (including the.... ambitious... airborne effort on Hostomel) to the Peninsula Campaign. Both ideas had in mind a rapid thrust at the jugular but were done in by a combination of poor leadership and logistics.

All that to say, its only been 2 months.. we have not gone long enough for Russia's traditional military strengths to kick in; those are 1) the ability to take repeated defeats and sustain an army in the field and 2) grinding their opponent down by virtue of attrition.

The most important advantage that the Ukrainians have is that large land border with NATO countries, particularly the Poles who are as game as you like. The West (who are we kidding... the Americans) will need to pull off a logistical effort of historical proportions to keep the Ukrainian army in good supply, in addition to intelligence support etc. for the Ukrainians to come out with something like victory. Nothing is yet decided.

I give Ukraine a 90% chance of survival. I just don't see how the inept and corrupt Russian military can push to Kiev (ever).
I give Ukraine a 5% chance of pushing Russia back to its original borders (except Crimea that's a lost cause).

wangus12 said:

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I wouldn't even call it a high probability Ukraine falls at this point. Maybe high probability they lose a large chunk of the East

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Maybe...for a short time, perhaps.

I don't really agree.

The South could have won the war had they not tried to take it to the North. That strategic change, from defender playing to their strengths on familiar ground to attacker against a superior force on unfamiliar ground is what did them in. Had they maintained their posture, Northern politics would have eventually ended the war. I don't see Ukraine committing that mistake. The South also wasn't getting more advanced weapons from other countries. Ukraine is getting a lot of logistical support and intelligence assistance.

I'm not sure Russia's strengths will work here. This is a high intensity proxy war. It's basically Vietnam. If Russia were fighting just Ukraine, yes, they could wear them down. However, they're fighting Ukraine, Europe, and the US. Ukraine is fighting a more efficient war thanks to western weapons and their defensive tactics. It's going to be hard for the Russians to "out die" the Ukrainians into submission.

The Russians can certainly be bled dry. It happened in Afghanistan. It could happen again here if Ukraine continues to play the South and play to their strengths.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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I don't really agree.

The South could have won the war had they not tried to take it to the North. That strategic change, from defender playing to their strengths on familiar ground to attacker against a superior force on unfamiliar ground is what did them in. Had they maintained their posture, Northern politics would have eventually ended the war. I don't see Ukraine committing that mistake. The South also wasn't getting more advanced weapons from other countries. Ukraine is getting a lot of logistical support and intelligence assistance.

I'm not sure Russia's strengths will work here. This is a high intensity proxy war. It's basically Vietnam. If Russia were fighting just Ukraine, yes, they could wear them down. However, they're fighting Ukraine, Europe, and the US. Ukraine is fighting a more efficient war thanks to western weapons and their defensive tactics. It's going to be hard for the Russians to "out die" the Ukrainians into submission.

The Russians can certainly be bled dry. It happened in Afghanistan. It could happen again here if Ukraine continues to play the South and play to their strengths.

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Well said. Belarus has not entered the war. Time for that has now passed.

This. Without lend/lease, they don't defeat the Germans. We supplied almost their entire logistical apparatus.

Here's an interesting video about troop counts. A bit interesting. I'd be curious to hear thoughts from here.