***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,595,486 Views | 47839 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by 74OA
AgLA06
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AG
Probably could avoid the city all together and go around it. Once supplies are cut off, they're done anyway. Russians don't have the resolve of Mariupal.

Just avoid the battle you don't need, post a small force to fix the Russians inplace, and keep going.
74OA
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AgLA06 said:

Probably could avoid the city all together and go around it. Once supplies are cut off, they're done anyway. Russians don't have the resolve of Mariupal.

Just avoid the battle you don't need, post a small force to fix the Russians inplace, and keep going.
If the Ukrainians can bypass Kherson in force and threaten the Crimea LOCs, the Russians will likely abandon the city to protect their rear. This British MOD map indicates the Ukrainians are already south of the city and pushing east.

JFABNRGR
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AgLA06 said:

Probably could avoid the city all together and go around it. Once supplies are cut off, they're done anyway. Russians don't have the resolve of Mariupal.

Just avoid the battle you don't need, post a small force to fix the Russians inplace, and keep going.
there is only 2 bridges in Kherson one is rail. Have to go through Kherson to get to the bridges. Even controlling Kherson doesn't mean control of bridges. A single artillery piece dialed in on each bridge a few miles away to the south and a spotter in the dunes at each is enough to rain death, stopping any further movement south.

Likely already rigged to blow as well.
74OA
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JFABNRGR said:

AgLA06 said:

Probably could avoid the city all together and go around it. Once supplies are cut off, they're done anyway. Russians don't have the resolve of Mariupal.

Just avoid the battle you don't need, post a small force to fix the Russians inplace, and keep going.
there is only 2 bridges in Kherson one is rail. Have to go through Kherson to get to the bridges. Even controlling Kherson doesn't mean control of bridges. A single artillery piece dialed in on each bridge a few miles away to the south and a spotter in the dunes at each is enough to rain death, stopping any further movement south.

Likely already rigged to blow as well.
Blow up the map just above. If accurate, the Ukrainians are already south of Kherson and driving.
GAC06
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Or a drone. No need to risk a spotter these days
deddog
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PJYoung said:

This thread is delicious.




Summing up I'd describe the long-existedopinion onAShM as following:
- They will make a project but won't be able to construct
- They will construct but it won't fly
- It will fly but won't reach target
- It will reach the target but the warhead won't become active
Oops 10/10
From that distance, they couldn't hit an eleph.....
JFABNRGR
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GAC06 said:

Or a drone. No need to risk a spotter these days.
Concur but these are russian spotters.....

On the map showing UKR forces south of the Dneiper River/Kherson I highly doubt that is any sizable force with any hard assets. Most likely drone strikes and or territorial defense conducting ambush/harassments. I do not believe they crossed the bridge, either home grown or crossed with small craft meaning whatever weaponry they have cannot be much. Now if they capture some drunk russian armor or better artillery and turn it in the appropriate direction would be significant, for a short while.

AgLA06
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What you described is the perfect way to control the far side so a force in mass and cross behind them.
74OA
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Good discussion of what air defense and artillery assets Ukraine needs for the fight in the southeast: GUNS
docb
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74OA said:

Good discussion of what air defense and artillery assets Ukraine needs for the fight in the southeast: GUNS
Good article. I would be willing to bet that more of this is in place than is being talked about. All these countries are not sending in this level of supplies and $$ for a losing cause.
CondensedFogAggie
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Ag In Ok said:

Reminds me of this guy. Wonder what came of him.




The Russian rocket artillery soldier that went viral has been captured by Ukrainian forces.


agent-maroon
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Hey Ivan - do that smirk and nodding your head thing again. I just love it when he does that, don't you?
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RebelE Infantry
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MeatDr said:

We've known they've been doing this for a bit, but here is an update.

Mostly captured. If you read the whole thread, only 582 of the scans have been corpses.

Unroll: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1514941871830835200.html




This is monstrously evil (sending photos of corpses). And what is it supposed to accomplish? Does anyone think this will convince babushkas to demand Putin end the war? It is more likely that it will produce exactly the opposite. This behavior is to be roundly condemned by all civilized people.

And before anyone accuses me of excusing crimes committed by Russian soldiers- I firmly believe any soldier guilty of rape, murder, and the like should be summarily shot.
GAC06
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Monstrously evil? No. Let them find out what happened to their soldier.
AgLA06
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I am SHOCKED that you are outraged by this! SHOCKED!!!!

I tell you what. Call your friend Vlad and tell him mommas won't have to learn from the Ukrainians that his POS lying ass sent them on an illegal invasion if he didn't start a war.
Ulrich
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They're trying to get the Russians to stop murdering their children. It's not my favorite thing, but hurting someone's feelings doesn't really approach reciprocity for shelling cities in a war of aggression.
RebelE Infantry
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Yes, it is evil. You can believe that the war is in itself evil and place the blame squarely on Russia and still be repulsed by this behavior. Both can be true.
Jetpilot86
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:

Rossticus said:

Zelensky has hinted at not even running for a second term whether the war is over or not. We'll see where this goes in the next few months, assuming he stays alive, but you have to imagine he's worn the hell out.
I understand where Zelensky is coming from, but he's an international superstar. He by far, would be able to secure the most foreign aid Ukraine desperately will need to rebuild the country after a ceasefire.

Current estimates are 160 billion dollars worth on infrastructure damage to his country.They may need him to stay at the top and bring the money in at least for 1 more term.
If he didn't want to totally contradict that word he could basically campaign by not campaigning. "I'm here, I'll take on the reconstruction, but only if that is the will of the people" vs the usual stuff you hear out of campaigns.
GAC06
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The average Russian needs a dose of reality about how the special operation is going. Seeing their loved one with his stolen loot left behind by his comrades should serve as a bit of a wake up call. Sorry some babushkas will get their feelings hurt if they decide to look at the pictures. They should take it up with Putin.
BusterAg
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RebelE Infantry said:

MeatDr said:

We've known they've been doing this for a bit, but here is an update.

Mostly captured. If you read the whole thread, only 582 of the scans have been corpses.

Unroll: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1514941871830835200.html




This is monstrously evil (sending photos of corpses). And what is it supposed to accomplish? Does anyone think this will convince babushkas to demand Putin end the war? It is more likely that it will produce exactly the opposite. This behavior is to be roundly condemned by all civilized people.

And before anyone accuses me of excusing crimes committed by Russian soldiers- I firmly believe any soldier guilty of rape, murder, and the like should be summarily shot.
The point is to prove that a lot of kids are dying. It's easy to pretend that there are not many casualties, but if you send enough of these, people will get the idea that Putin is lying.

It also helps mom collect her live chicken, sack of potatoes, and bottle of Vodka as a death payment.
CondensedFogAggie
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FYI The Katyn massacre was a mass execution of nearly 22,000 Polish military officers and educated class carried out by the Soviet Union in 1940. Basically they exterminated a good portion of the educated/cream of the crop of Poland, and some say Poland still hasn't fully recovered from it to this day.

Do these idiots seriously think this will convince Poland to stop helping the Ukes?

If anything this will accelerate the transfer of hundreds of Polish T-72's to Ukraine
farmrag
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RebelE Infantry said:

MeatDr said:

We've known they've been doing this for a bit, but here is an update.

Mostly captured. If you read the whole thread, only 582 of the scans have been corpses.

Unroll: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1514941871830835200.html




This is monstrously evil (sending photos of corpses). And what is it supposed to accomplish? Does anyone think this will convince babushkas to demand Putin end the war? It is more likely that it will produce exactly the opposite. This behavior is to be roundly condemned by all civilized people.

And before anyone accuses me of excusing crimes committed by Russian soldiers- I firmly believe any soldier guilty of rape, murder, and the like should be summarily shot.
That's what you do to monsters.
MouthBQ98
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RebelE Infantry said:

MeatDr said:

We've known they've been doing this for a bit, but here is an update.

Mostly captured. If you read the whole thread, only 582 of the scans have been corpses.

Unroll: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1514941871830835200.html




This is monstrously evil (sending photos of corpses). And what is it supposed to accomplish? Does anyone think this will convince babushkas to demand Putin end the war? It is more likely that it will produce exactly the opposite. This behavior is to be roundly condemned by all civilized people.

And before anyone accuses me of excusing crimes committed by Russian soldiers- I firmly believe any soldier guilty of rape, murder, and the like should be summarily shot.


Their mothers and families are getting a nonstop stream of propaganda lies from the Russian government. A tragic bit of reality and news of the real fates of their family members might bring about some changes, though doubtful.
Ulrich
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One good tactic to get someone to lay off is to remind them of the time you murdered 22,000 of their relatives and then threaten to desecrate the burial site.
agent-maroon
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Ulrich said:

One good tactic to get someone to lay off is to remind them of the time you murdered 22,000 of their relatives and then threaten to desecrate the burial site.
Maybe they should should level entire cities devoid of any known military targets? Or bring in Chechen units for the explicit purpose of raping & murdering your women & children?

**** the rus...
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deddog
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Think of it as a special operation to let the Russian mothers know where their sons are.
MeatDr
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MeatDr
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They're getting ratioed hard.
CondensedFogAggie
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BusterAg
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RebelE Infantry said:

MeatDr said:

We've known they've been doing this for a bit, but here is an update.

Mostly captured. If you read the whole thread, only 582 of the scans have been corpses.

Unroll: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1514941871830835200.html




This is monstrously evil (sending photos of corpses). And what is it supposed to accomplish? Does anyone think this will convince babushkas to demand Putin end the war? It is more likely that it will produce exactly the opposite. This behavior is to be roundly condemned by all civilized people.

And before anyone accuses me of excusing crimes committed by Russian soldiers- I firmly believe any soldier guilty of rape, murder, and the like should be summarily shot.
If Russian mothers are even a fraction as stubborn as you at facing reality in the face of new information, they are going to need this kind of confirmation to prove to them what a monstrosity this war is.

There are some people that will listen to propaganda and swallow so much of it, it is almost impossible to change their minds. It would take them something like seeing the face of their dead son to finally see the light.
Rossticus
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CondensedFogAggie
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RebelE Infantry said:




This is monstrously evil (sending photos of corpses). And what is it supposed to accomplish? Does anyone think this will convince babushkas to demand Putin end the war? It is more likely that it will produce exactly the opposite. This behavior is to be roundly condemned by all civilized people.

And before anyone accuses me of excusing crimes committed by Russian soldiers- I firmly believe any soldier guilty of rape, murder, and the like should be summarily shot.

What's it supposed to accomplish? Not just telling people the truth, but it brings closure to the Russian families who otherwise would have been tormented for decades of the fate of their sons. It's well known how loved ones need to actually see a body to have closure.

The Ukes are actually doing them a humanitarian favor, unlike the Russians who give **** all for their own soldiers and probably just report them missing. If the Ukes were truly monsters, they'd just burn the bodies and forget about them without notifying anyone.

Read this article about how important closure is - https://archive.ph/k7pzO#selection-1301.0-1301.782
Quote:

For the families and friends, coping with the loss of a loved one who has drowned without a trace is a special kind of pain. "The human brain can't let go unless there is evidence of transformation from life to death," says Pauline Boss, a professor emeritus at the University of Minnesota . Without recovering a body, a haunting anguish takes the place of grief and eventual closure. Some people report catching glimpses of their lost loved ones in everyday situations in the aisles of the supermarket, say for years after they go missing. "You need to see that the person is no longer breathing," Boss said. "Or you need to see the bones."

This is why so many are stunned by how the Russians are abandoning their dead. Our soldiers and law enforcement do their best not to leave a body behind.
aezmvp
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BusterAg said:

RebelE Infantry said:

MeatDr said:

We've known they've been doing this for a bit, but here is an update.

Mostly captured. If you read the whole thread, only 582 of the scans have been corpses.

Unroll: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1514941871830835200.html




This is monstrously evil (sending photos of corpses). And what is it supposed to accomplish? Does anyone think this will convince babushkas to demand Putin end the war? It is more likely that it will produce exactly the opposite. This behavior is to be roundly condemned by all civilized people.

And before anyone accuses me of excusing crimes committed by Russian soldiers- I firmly believe any soldier guilty of rape, murder, and the like should be summarily shot.
If Russian mothers are even a fraction as stubborn as you at facing reality in the face of new information, they are going to need this kind of confirmation to prove to them what a monstrosity this war is.

There are some people that will listen to propaganda and swallow so much of it, it is almost impossible to change their minds. It would take them something like seeing the face of their dead son to finally see the light.
I've played gatekeeper and come down on Rebel's side on a fair few occasions in this thread. This is not one of them. This is war and something like this may harden a few of those people but it also has the ability to break through propaganda barriers and create a lot of social problems inside Russia. I have zero problems with this. It's the digital equivalent of posting the heads on spikes just far more humane. I think this is very much in the same space as posting intercepted calls from soldiers with their wives giving their husbands the okay to rape Ukrainians. Or posting pictures of confirmed looters. This is the info and propaganda side of the war. It's messy and civilians back home should understand and spread the word which will create all kinds of issues. Yes many might be hardened by it. But not all, in fact it's those other ones you want to reach whether it's their son or not.

I just don't think this is very egregious or out of line.
CondensedFogAggie
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Quote:

In a fragment of an intercepted call between a Russian serviceman and his wife, published by the SBU on April 12, the latter, in particular, said to her husband, laughing, the following words: "You go there and rape Ukrainian women ... But don't tell me anything. Just don't forget about contraception You got me?"

From their sources in the Ukrainian law enforcement agencies, journalists learned the Russian phone numbers of the interlocutors. This allowed them to identify both.

According to RFE/RL's journalists, these two phone numbers were used when registering two accounts on the VKontakte social network: 27-year-old Roman Bykovsky and his wife Olga Bykovska… both based in Oryol region, Russia," the report reads.

Olga Bykovska's voice completely coincides with the voice on the audio recording published by the Ukrainian secret service. She confirmed to Radio Svoboda that her husband was in Sevastopol, adding that he was being treated at hospital after being injured.

It is noted that the woman, who told her husband he could "rape Ukrainian women," wrote in her profile on Vkontakte that the most important thing in her life is "family and children."
This is what you call monsters.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3458690-russian-woman-who-allowed-husband-deployed-in-ukraine-to-rape-local-women-identified.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=%5Btwitter%5D&utm_campaign=%5Brogue_corq%5D
USAFAg
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:





Not sure what the picture is trying to say. Those are T-34/85s and SU-100s circa 1943-5 eras tanks.

Edit: though the gun visible in the foreground is more "modern" with it's evacuator can't see what it's attached to...

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