***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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1:18p, 4/12/22


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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:19p, 4/12/22
AG
The old 40 acres and a mule approach, eh?
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:20p, 4/12/22
aggiehawg said:
The old 40 acres and a mule approach, eh?


Except when you get to your 40 acres, it's a gulag. And you're the mule.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:24p, 4/12/22
AG
Rossticus said:


Reuters reported he had escaped his house arrest in Ukraine on February 27th.
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:26p, 4/12/22
Guess he didn't escape "good enough". I'd assume his accommodations henceforth will be less cozy.
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FriscoKid
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1:28p, 4/12/22
AG
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EastSideAg2002
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1:29p, 4/12/22
Welcome to your hell comrade.
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EMY92
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In reply to 74OA • 1:37p, 4/12/22
AG
74OA said:
MeatDr said:
Javelins, yes. Stingers, no. The US hasn't bought Stingers in decades and the production line services only one international customer which itself sources the obsolescent parts needed to build its orders.

STINGER
The Stinger is approaching obsolescence.

The Army is looking for a replacement.

https://www.navytimes.com/land/2022/04/07/us-army-initiates-plan-to-replace-stingers-with-next-gen-interceptor/
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DCPD158
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2:02p, 4/12/22
AG
Missile to target cost ratio is excellent, especially the Stinger
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
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PJYoung
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In reply to wangus12 • 2:08p, 4/12/22
AG
wangus12 said:
Had an conversation with a patient of mine from Bulgaria speaking on Russia in Ukraine. He said the one big thing he's noticed in his country is that people seem to no longer fear Russia. He grew up under communist Bulgaria and they've always worried about Russia taking back Eastern Europe. Watching Russia struggle in as much as they have in Ukraine has given them the belief that with Western support, Russia no where near what all of eastern Europe feared they were.
This falls right in line with the excellent article aggiehawg posted yesterday.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/breakup-will-russia-splinter-over-war-ukraine-201728

One small snippet:

Quote:
Precedents of Independence Movements in the Russian Empire

It is not unprecedented for Russia's constituent republics to demand independence when Moscow is weak.

The 1917 Russian Revolution was one such moment. Several constituent republics declared their independence at that time, and some stayed independent for years. Among them were Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Tatarstan, and the North Caucasus republics.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, several USSR republics became independent countries: Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

The breakup process might have gone even further since several other Russian regionsincluding Siberia, Ural, Karelia and Tatarstandeclared their "sovereignty" at the time. To prevent more territorial losses, President Boris Yeltsin suggested a federation, promised the republics as much "sovereignty as [they] could swallow," and negotiated deals with restive regions.

What Fuels Independence Claims in Today's Russia?

The Russian Federation consists of eighty-five "federal subjects," or constituent parts, of which twenty-two are republics named after non-Russian ethnicities. Russia has over190 ethnicities, and many of them live in remote locations like Siberia and the Caucasus region.

Why would they secede? For two main reasons: economic and cultural.


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txaggie02
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In reply to FriscoKid • 2:18p, 4/12/22
AG
FriscoKid said:
That really sucks. Can't be much worse than having the will and determination to fight, but having nothing to fight with other than an empty rifle. That has to be an extremely hopeless and frustrating feeling. Hopefully they get some ammunition very quickly.
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DCPD158
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In reply to txaggie02 • 2:24p, 4/12/22
AG
txaggie02 said:
FriscoKid said:
That really sucks. Can't be much worse than having the will and determination to fight, but having nothing to fight with other than an empty rifle. That has to be an extremely hopeless and frustrating feeling. Hopefully they get some ammunition very quickly.
Probably the only way now is off dead Russians. May be some supplies getting in, but not enough to sustain them in this fight as it is
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
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spikingag
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2:27p, 4/12/22
AG
Found this interesting. Sorry if already posted
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Rossticus
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2:40p, 4/12/22
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Rossticus
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2:44p, 4/12/22
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Rossticus
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2:45p, 4/12/22




Assumed ID (correct if mistaken)

M577 (US)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/M577_Command_Post_Carrier

M109 Self propelled 155mm (US)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/M109_howitzer
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AgBQ-00
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:46p, 4/12/22
AG
Rossticus said:


This really is going to happen isn't it?
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
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Rossticus
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2:47p, 4/12/22


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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:49p, 4/12/22
AG
Didn't realize we still had Harriers in service.
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Rossticus
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 2:50p, 4/12/22
Whether it does or doesn't is 100% up to Putin. Ball still in his court. We're just preparing in case he colors outside the lines, IMO.

That said, the rhetoric emanating from Russia recently hasn't been encouraging. The fact that the Russians stopped answering the deescalation line isn't encouraging.
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:51p, 4/12/22
aggiehawg said:
Didn't realize we still had Harriers in service.


Marine Corps. Less than 100 IIRC.
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pocketrockets06
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In reply to txaggie02 • 2:52p, 4/12/22
AG
Yep, this was the point I was making when some of the "surrender" videos started going around last week. There comes a point where you are out of ammo/food and the choices are surrender or suicide. There is zero shame in picking surrender at that point and we should be grateful they held as long as they have. All the will and fighting spirit in the world doesn't put bullets in empty magazines.
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Rossticus
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3:03p, 4/12/22
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Rossticus
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3:10p, 4/12/22
They're not all done yet! Whoop!

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74OA
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In reply to Rossticus • 3:19p, 4/12/22
AG
Rossticus said:
They're not all done yet! Whoop!

Gotta hold to keep Putin from owning the coast all the way from Russia to Crimea and from shifting his southern forces up to the fighting in the Donbas.
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to 74OA • 3:25p, 4/12/22
AG
74OA said:
Rossticus said:
They're not all done yet! Whoop!

Gotta hold to keep Putin from owning the coast all the way from Russia to Crimea and from shifting his southern forces up to the fighting in the Donbas.
Would be huge if there was a way to reinforce these brave Mariupol fighters.
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CS78
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3:34p, 4/12/22
Keep thinking the Ukes will try hard to get relief to Mariupol any day. If control falls, they'll never get it back.
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74OA
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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 3:36p, 4/12/22
AG
AGS-R-TUFF said:
74OA said:
Rossticus said:
They're not all done yet! Whoop!

Gotta hold to keep Putin from owning the coast all the way from Russia to Crimea and from shifting his southern forces up to the fighting in the Donbas.
Would be huge if there was a way to reinforce these brave Mariupol fighters.
Ukraine is pressing hard to encircle or liberate Kherson further west.

If it can get that done, it can then go for the nearby LOCs coming out of Crimea, which are essential to maintain Russian forces in the south.

That threat might compel Russia to shift forces away from Mariupol to protect its supply lines.
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MouthBQ98
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3:38p, 4/12/22
AG
They need to drone in some supplies and food. I wonder if a drug runner type powerboat doing 90 mph could make a run in there.
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Rossticus
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In reply to 74OA • 3:39p, 4/12/22
Ukrainian forces are finding success clearing Russian elements from west of the Dnipro near Kherson. Once that effort is complete then it's on to take back Kherson. Interested to see how much luck the Russians will have digging in there in an unfriendly city.
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Rossticus
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3:40p, 4/12/22
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74OA
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In reply to Rossticus • 3:45p, 4/12/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Ukrainian forces are finding success clearing Russian elements from west of the Dnipro near Kherson. Once that effort is complete then it's on to take back Kherson. Interested to see how much luck the Russians will have digging in there in an unfriendly city.
Instead of tying forces up in an urban grinder, slide south to threaten the Crimea LOCs and the Russians will likely have to abandon Kherson. If the Ukrainians can separate Russian forces from those key roads to Crimea, it might break open the entire fight in the south.
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aggiehawg
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4:16p, 4/12/22
AG
Quote:
One in five Russian soldiers killed are OFFICERS as Putin's army is forced to send commanders into the field to oversee chaotic invasion
  • An investigation has identified 1,083 named Russian servicemen casualties
  • Of these, 31 were majors and 155 were ranked between captain and Second Lt.
  • Officers have been sent to the battlefield to carry out Kremlin tactical decisions
Quote:
A fifth of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine are officers who were sent to the battlefield to oversee Putin's chaotic invasion, analysis has shown.

An investigation found that of 1,083 Russian servicemen killed whose identity has been verified, more than 20 per cent were officers.

BBC Russian Service counted 31 majors and 155 servicemen ranked between captain and second lieutenant among the dead.
Quote:
Their bodies were returned to their homeland up to a month after their death, suggesting their could be many more high profile casualties still in Ukraine.

The high death toll betrays baffling Kremlin tactics which have seen officers being sent to the battlefield to make their tactical decisions, putting them in danger.

In the West, these roles are delegated to non-commissioned officers.
Quote:
An extra 15 per cent of the identified fatalities were elite paratroopers and 25 per cent were special forces personnel.

They were likely killed in the battle for Hostomel airport near Kyiv, where Russian paratroopers (VDV) were deployed by helicopter on the first day of the brutal invasion.

They were sent with unarmoured light vehicles and when infantry was halted in the convoy towards Kyiv, more paratroopers were airlifted in.

Oleksiy Melnyk, a retired colonel and director at the Razumkov centre, told The Times: 'VDV are considered to be the most combat ready, effective, but at the same time they are not usually equipped with infantry fighting vehicles.
Link
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BlackGoldAg2011
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:23p, 4/12/22
AG
Rossticus said:




Assumed ID (correct if mistaken)

M577 (US)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/M577_Command_Post_Carrier

M109 Self propelled 155mm (US)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/M109_howitzer
That's what I see too, plus some M992 artillery support vehicles there at the end paired up with some of the last M109s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M992_Field_Artillery_Ammunition_Support_Vehicle
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bonfarr
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In reply to 74OA • 4:26p, 4/12/22
AG
74OA said:
MeatDr said:
Javelins, yes. Stingers, no. The US hasn't bought Stingers in decades and the production line services only one international customer which itself sources the obsolescent parts needed to build its orders.

STINGER


Sounds like we need to invite Elon Musk into a meeting to help accelerate manufacturing for these weapons. I'm not sure how he would respond to manufacturing weapons of war but he is clearly sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause so maybe he would get involved.

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