AgLA06 said:

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Yah, the point of that tweet thread seems pointless.

It's not like Poland would be fighting Russia without the losses to Russia already inflicted by Ukraine or without NATO allies.

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I thought that it was interesting, not solely from the standpoint of a hypothetical 1 on 1 between Poland and Russia, but the comparison it provides between Ukraine's performance thus far and the potential of one of Europe's stronger militaries.

quick summary of putin's press conference that just concluded pic.twitter.com/DhXULgNE4d

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 12, 2022

What is a "triune nation"??

***WARNING GRAPHIC***

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513870745855840258.html

Rossticus said:

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***WARNING GRAPHIC***

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513870745855840258.html

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Those are 30mm cannon hits from a bmp, BRm, or BTR.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Why would China go to war over it when they could buy rights to it on the cheap, then gradually occupy it, then just declare it a separatist state and then occupy it with zero resistance over the next 2-3 decades?

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Agree.

China is playing a longer game. The longer Russia bleeds, the more dependent it will become. China wants to turn Russia into its vassal- use Russia as the second lobster/ ice breaker/pick your metaphor.

When things settle down in Ukraine, we should provoke them against one another.

Rossticus said:

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aggiehawg said:

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What is a "triune nation"??

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Some sort of made up Putin BS that means "Belarus and Ukraine are Russia. We own them. They have no independent identity, will, or sovereignty".

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Triune "All-Russian" nation is an Russian Imperial concept that hasn't been around for more than a century (or taken as simply a matter of course during the Soviet era), ie dating from the Tsars. Basically that Great Russians, Little Russians, and White Russians are one nation.

Great or Greater Russia=Russia/Moscow
Little or Lesser Russia=Ukraine
White Russia=Belarus

So, imperialist Russian bull**** that means "Belarus and Ukraine are Russia. We own them. Neither they nor their people have independent identity, will, or sovereignty". Got it.

Excellent discussion of the initial impromptu allied military aid to Ukraine and the best way forward in recognition that the battle is changing. Recommended.

LONG WAR

Several posts on this thread have been in the theme of "look how bad Ukraine is beating them, Poland would do even better". I think this highlights that might not be true.

Jock 07 said:

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I don't want to clutter this board rehashing the nuke discussions but I'll leave with this… then what happens when we start climbing the escalation ladder and start lobbing nukes back and forth. Do you think the soviets will back down when we/NATO respond with nuke employment? The risk for miscalculation in these scenarios are hugely consequential.

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For starters, let's talk target equivalency ... not weapon equivalency. A reciprocal response isn't trading nukes ... particularly if Russian tactical nukes aren't targeting NATO. We have a lot of tools in our non-nuclear toolbox that haven't been deployed/used ... particularly long range precision guided weapons capable of hitting hard targets in the rear like bridges, depots, ports, etc. Soft targets are another level of escalation. And so forth. .

Anastasiia Lapatina
@lapatina_

2h
I really thought I've seen the worst of it. But I just heard an intercepted call of a Russian woman telling her partner to rape Ukrainian women, just not tell her about it. "I allow it, just use protection".

I cut the profanity out of her post.

HTownAg98 said:

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Lots of words to say “I screwed the pooch” https://t.co/jDlrhOWiuz

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) April 12, 2022

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Are those putins comments or those of all the people/countries providing aid to Ukraine?

aggiehawg said:

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What is a "triune nation"??

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You must recall that when Ukraine withdrew from the USSR, the USSR collapsed within 2 (?) weeks. For Russians, there can be no conception of a reformed USSR without Ukraine. If they don't take over Ukraine and win, the dream of USSR dies. Hence the existential battle to win in Ukraine. And also why the West cannot allow it to happen, IMO.

wangus12 said:

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Had an conversation with a patient of mine from Bulgaria speaking on Russia in Ukraine. He said the one big thing he's noticed in his country is that people seem to no longer fear Russia. He grew up under communist Bulgaria and they've always worried about Russia taking back Eastern Europe. Watching Russia struggle in as much as they have in Ukraine has given them the belief that with Western support, Russia no where near what all of eastern Europe feared they were.

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I have a friend who lives in the states, but grew up in Bulgaria. She says many people in Bulgaria (her friends on social media) support Russia in this war. Disappointing to her. This was near the beginning of the war. Maybe things are changing.

But let's face it, the appeal of a strong man and someone to take care of you has always been a powerful draw. Along with the appeal of greatness and empire. There are a lot of people who support Putin and Russia in the west.

Of course Putin hasn't articulated what these supposed "agreements" were. Because they were none. But when you need to continue to justify your perpetual unwillingness to negotiate in good faith…

Putin claims Ukraine has deviated from agreements achieved at the talks in Istanbul — IFX

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) April 12, 2022

NEW: U.S. "does not object" to the provision of fixed-wing fighters to Ukraine, such as Soviet-era MiG-29 jets after Slovakia floated a transfer: senior U.S. defense official

The U.S. nixed a Polish deal to give MiGs to Ukraine through American military base in Germany in March

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 12, 2022

Mr Putin ! Are you paying attention ? #Anonymous incoming ! #ukraine - We cannot forgive you of your actions and the recent atrocity in #Mariupol Pay Attention ! pic.twitter.com/qJ2tgxTFmw

— Anonymous (@AnonymousUK2022) April 12, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Of course Putin hasn't articulated what these supposed "agreements" were. Because they were none. But when you need to continue to justify your perpetual unwillingness to negotiate in good faith…

Putin claims Ukraine has deviated from agreements achieved at the talks in Istanbul — IFX

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) April 12, 2022

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I was listening to Burn Bag podcast, interview of James Clapper. He says you can't trust anything that Russia says re: negotiations. Long history of deception and lying. Every announcement by Russia should be considered a lie until proven otherwise.

russia must be stopped.

warning I could not watch through, without taking a break and reminding myself it must be seen and I hope our decision makers and those around the world are also seeing it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/u1v8dk/terrible_video_with_the_consequences_of_the_cruel/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

These Naval Groups are planning to Conduct Security Assurance Operations along with Allies and Joint Partners in the Region until further notice, while also being a Forward Deployed part of the NATO Very High Readiness Joint Task Force ready to conduct Naval Missions if need be.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 12, 2022

Ross? Can our missiles from the ships in the Baltic reach targets in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia near the border? Hit supply depots? What's the range? (I'm excluding submarines in the area.)

aggiehawg said:

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Ross? Can our missiles from the ships in the Baltic reach targets in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia near the border? Hit supply depots? What's the range? (I'm excluding submarines in the area.)

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looks like tomahawks can reach out to 800-1000+ miles depending on the variant. so with the latest models our ships could tuck into the gulf of riga and hit any location in pre-2014 Ukraine. or well past Moscow or any target in Balarus

aggiehawg said:

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Ross? Can our missiles from the ships in the Baltic reach targets in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia near the border? Hit supply depots? What's the range? (I'm excluding submarines in the area.)

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Absolutely, All of Belarus, all of UKR (including crimea), and even deep into western russia. Generally 2500 KM range and very accurate.

Thats a lot of ground to fly by low though, better would be out of the black sea, air launched, or off the ground in neighboring country.

The U.S. has given #Ukraine 7,000 Javelin ATGMs in recent months -- which is 1/3 of the entire American stock & will take 1+yr to replace.

Also 2,000 Stingers -- 1/4 of the U.S. inventory, which'll take 5yrs to replace.

Is this supply sustainable?https://t.co/ZA3c2958Ir pic.twitter.com/zePo0sbIEH

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) April 12, 2022

MeatDr said:

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The U.S. has given #Ukraine 7,000 Javelin ATGMs in recent months -- which is 1/3 of the entire American stock & will take 1+yr to replace.

Also 2,000 Stingers -- 1/4 of the U.S. inventory, which'll take 5yrs to replace.

Is this supply sustainable?https://t.co/ZA3c2958Ir pic.twitter.com/zePo0sbIEH

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) April 12, 2022

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Javelins, yes. Stingers, no. The US hasn't bought Stingers in decades and the production line services only one international customer which itself sources the obsolescent parts needed to build its orders.

STINGER

aggiehawg said:

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Ross? Can our missiles from the ships in the Baltic reach targets in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia near the border? Hit supply depots? What's the range? (I'm excluding submarines in the area.)

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If I told you I knew specific ranges offhand I'd be lying. I'll need to do a bit of self education after work.

Source: Mariupol city council

— Asami Terajima (@AsamiTerajima) April 12, 2022