Account is a British national who has been fighting in Mariupol. They lasted way longer than anyone thought they would.

We're putting this out after direct consultation with his family. Until we're told otherwise we'll continue working on sharing the facts of the war. Hope for a prisoner exchange.

— COSSACKGUNDI (@cossackgundi) April 12, 2022

NEW: Russia is disguising some troops in civilian clothes and hiding military units in apartment complexes, on farms, and in energy facilities to avoid being targeted by Ukrainian troops - likely in contravention of international law: Ukrainian general staff update pic.twitter.com/YUBOlTfU3C

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 12, 2022

NEW: Ukraine’s besieged Mariupol may see death toll rise above 20,000 in coming weeks, the port city’s mayor tells the AP.

10,000 civilians have died in Mariupol from Russian attacks since the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Mariupol has been besieged for 43 days.

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 12, 2022

Railway bridge in Shebekinsky District, Belgorod Oblast, has been heavily damaged by what looks like a saboteur attack.

The bridge is located at 50.388086,36.831113, about 6.5 km away from the Ukrainian Border. pic.twitter.com/kZ1aL8eLkz

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) April 12, 2022

Finally some more info on the alleged chemical attack.

Azov has put out a video with details of the alleged chemical attack in Mariupol, with details of the symptoms from the attack. https://t.co/UAXqUcqo8M pic.twitter.com/bSBYNUXSTR

— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) April 12, 2022

People in the video also describe the presence of a white smoke or fog, and feeling the effects immediately, leading to some people to collapse. pic.twitter.com/RP5stZvCjO

— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) April 12, 2022

If the site is still accessible then they should be able to go back there and find the munition remains, which would be the most solid evidence they could hope to produce.

— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) April 12, 2022

The most valuable thing that could be done at the moment is recovering remains of the munition used. If it is a chemical weapon then there should be a significant amount of debris left.

— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) April 12, 2022

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer met Putin in Moscow on Monday, becoming the first Western leader since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine to visit the Kremlin

The meeting lasted 75 minutes and "was not a friendly one" Nehammer said in a statement. No handshakes between them

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 12, 2022

The aftermath of that strike. 2/https://t.co/MaLxJ8fLpN pic.twitter.com/NtT7NqAq9W

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 12, 2022

Russia using weapons smuggled from Iran based militias in Iraq.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/12/russia-using-weapons-smuggled-by-iran-from-iraq-against-ukraine

AlaskanAg99 said:

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If Russia deploys nukes against Ukraine, no country will ever do business again with them. Russia may win the battle with Ukraine, but the entire developed world will shun them forever.

And that's not just doing business, but preventing trade. That's the death.

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This will force them to steal the lives and resources from others again.

Long thread from Dan Kaszeta on why the chemical weapon accusation is still very much unconfirmed: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513798406849933313.html
Until we see the munitions and/or can do medical or environmental testing, we really don't know. Some highlights:

Let's look at the place. It's a steelworks. There's lots of scope in an industrial setting for conventional or incendiary weapons to cause chemical problems because of fires and explosions.

— Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦 (@DanKaszeta) April 12, 2022

By the way, I'm not accusing anyone on the scene of lying. It's just that chemical attacks are, in fact, a rare thing, and people might not know what to expect or look for or what smart questions to ask on the spot.

— Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦 (@DanKaszeta) April 12, 2022

Fentanyl fogger?

MouthBQ98 said:

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Fentanyl fogger?

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As far as I know these are the guys holed up in the massive steel plant, and there's probably a whole bunch of stuff in there that doesn't react well to bullets (or explosions). The most likely scenario is that something on site got hit and caused these reactions. We will have to wait and see if there's any more evidence either way. I'm not very familiar with what chemicals go into the steel production process so just a guess.

True, it was probably something already there. Steels don't require a lot of odd chemicals or additives in the process. The high temperatures alone mean anything volatile or organic isn't involved, but it could be something got some sort of secondary process.

JFABNRGR said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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If Russia deploys nukes against Ukraine, no country will ever do business again with them. Russia may win the battle with Ukraine, but the entire developed world will shun them forever.

And that's not just doing business, but preventing trade. That's the death.

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This will force them to steal the lives and resources from others again.

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Which they won't be able to achieve at the rate their military is declining and the inability to replace equipment.

WesMaroon&White said:

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🔺 NEW: A “Stalinist” mass purge of Russian secret intelligence is under way after more than 100 agents were removed from their jobs and the head of the department responsible for Ukraine was sent to prison https://t.co/QgfENfjgkN

— The Times (@thetimes) April 11, 2022

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Further down.

The service’s former chief, Sergei Beseda, 68, has been sent to Lefortovo prison in Moscow after he was placed under house arrest last month.

The prison was used by the NKVD for interrogation and torture during Stalin’s Great Purge of the 1930s https://t.co/LgS8ZMbHUc

— The Times (@thetimes) April 11, 2022

benchmark said:

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Rossticus said:

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The nuance is that Russian doctrine dictates they use theater level tactical nukes if they're at irrevocable risk of losing but feel that they can, via employment, tip the scales and force the other side to back down. Escalation to force deescalation.

That doesn't mean you acquiesce to ensure that Russia never loses. Weakness increases the likelihood that Russia will escalate, not the inverse.

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Bingo! There has to be a credible NATO threat of reciprocity and equivalency. This means Russia's use of either tactical nukes or a conventional attack on a NATO country will trigger a tit-for-tat response. Russia has to understand ... escalation will not force NATO de-escalation.

If NATO blinks ... be assured, China is watching and taking notes.

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I don't want to clutter this board rehashing the nuke discussions but I'll leave with this… then what happens when we start climbing the escalation ladder and start lobbing nukes back and forth. Do you think the soviets will back down when we/NATO respond with nuke employment? The risk for miscalculation in these scenarios are hugely consequential.

MeatDr said:

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The aftermath of that strike. 2/https://t.co/MaLxJ8fLpN pic.twitter.com/NtT7NqAq9W

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 12, 2022

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Those are cratering charges. It appears that they are trying to destroy buried underground utility infrastructure.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Fentanyl fogger?

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Fentanyl wouldn't cause those symptoms. You would lapse into a very comfortable state of unconsciousness

Waffledynamics said:

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wangus12 said:

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benchmark said:

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Rossticus said:

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The nuance is that Russian doctrine dictates they use theater level tactical nukes if they're at irrevocable risk of losing but feel that they can, via employment, tip the scales and force the other side to back down. Escalation to force deescalation.

That doesn't mean you acquiesce to ensure that Russia never loses. Weakness increases the likelihood that Russia will escalate, not the inverse.

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Bingo! There has to be a credible NATO threat of reciprocity and equivalency. This means Russia's use of either tactical nukes or a conventional attack on a NATO country will trigger a tit-for-tat response. Russia has to understand ... escalation will not force NATO de-escalation.

If NATO blinks ... be assured, China is watching and taking notes.

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I still think China makes a move on Eastern Russia when the Ukrainian conflict ends and Russia has been substantially depleted.

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China will not invade Eastern Russia. Too much risk with little reward compared to exploiting the depleted Russia economically.

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I don't know about that. Those O&G fields in eastern Russia may be too tempting. The Westerners that were running those operations have left. Never to return most likely as long as those fields are in Russian hands but would they if the Chinese controlled them?

IDK.

Waffledynamics said:

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wangus12 said:

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benchmark said:

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Rossticus said:

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The nuance is that Russian doctrine dictates they use theater level tactical nukes if they're at irrevocable risk of losing but feel that they can, via employment, tip the scales and force the other side to back down. Escalation to force deescalation.

That doesn't mean you acquiesce to ensure that Russia never loses. Weakness increases the likelihood that Russia will escalate, not the inverse.

---

Bingo! There has to be a credible NATO threat of reciprocity and equivalency. This means Russia's use of either tactical nukes or a conventional attack on a NATO country will trigger a tit-for-tat response. Russia has to understand ... escalation will not force NATO de-escalation.

If NATO blinks ... be assured, China is watching and taking notes.

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I still think China makes a move on Eastern Russia when the Ukrainian conflict ends and Russia has been substantially depleted.

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China will not invade Eastern Russia. Too much risk with little reward compared to exploiting the depleted Russia economically.

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China doesn't need Siberia right now. They need food. There is zero incentive to do this compared to the massive risk of immediate nuclear escalation. This isn't Clancy's The Bear and The Dragon. The bottom line is that the Chinese have been very strategic with escalations, provocations and actions. Invading the Far East district isn't any of that, yet.

So they targeted utilities that service the apartment building or more likely missed the true target of the apartment building itself?

MouthBQ98 said:

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True, it was probably something already there. Steels don't require a lot of odd chemicals or additives in the process. The high temperatures alone mean anything volatile or organic isn't involved, but it could be something got some sort of secondary process.

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Could have been galvanized steel (zinc coating). If zinc is heated, the fumes are toxic. A quick internet search shows the following symptoms: nausea, headaches, high fever, shivers and thirst.

I would expect a steel plant to have a hot dip galvanize plant.

Could be. I know you have to avoid the fumes welding zinc coated/galvanized steel.

Rossticus said:

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Interesting thread.

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513692863216816128.html

To establish a quantitative baseline, see this article and this video. From them we can see that prewar Ukraine had 51 maneuver brigades - 33 regular army and 18 national guard paramilitary.https://t.co/V7WmMtLLMN

https://t.co/Irvk142iau

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) April 12, 2022

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From an American perspective, this is one of the most significant posts on this thread. The US and DoD are doing everything they can to quietly and hastily remedy this issue. Everything is on the table and boots are already on the ground with more en route and more staged for deployment. There have been several posts noting increases in flight activity and volume. These are pertinent as well.

Jock 07 said:

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agsalaska said:

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GarryowenAg said:

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agsalaska said:

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GarryowenAg said:

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I participated in a round table discussion with some state dept folks today at Fort Leavenworth. Can't go into much details on a public forum, but they basically said the US and NATO are deterred from escalating too much due to a legit fear Putin will use nukes. I've been on the skeptical side that nukes were out of the question until today.

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Actually It seems inevitable to me.

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I won't say you're wrong. The biggest point I'll drive home tonight is, are we be willing to save Kyiv if it meant losing Norfolk?

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Yea I think A lot of people who accuse people of being 'pro Russian' don't seem to grasp this point.

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Concur. The flippant dismissal of the idea of nuclear weapon employment is foolish. I think too many folks automatically think of strategic nukes weapon systems while not grasping the fact that there are nuances to nuclear weapons usage within a broader conflict.

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That's because most people look at that and analyze the situation very differently than you. If they are actually willing to use nuclear weapons the last thing we want them doing is invading and gaining more territory to get close to us and other allied countries.

Pacification doesn't work. WW2 happens the same way regardless if Hitler had nuclear weapons. The reality is there's no way that Britton tries pacification as long as they did and allow those nukes instead of V2 get across the channel. Your argument to me means even more reason to stop them where they are and limit the ability of the nuclear threat.

To us, dooms day doesn't justify cowering. Dooms day justifies an even more extreme reaction to do everything possible to ensure it doesn't / can't happen.

This is no different than the 3 types of people in any event regarding aggression. Except geographically countries can't hide or flight away from aggressors in war. And yet you still want to apply these principles.

• Fight
• Flight
• Hide

The last thing I'll say is that I only mention this because we need the prayer of the entire Aggie Network to guide our decision makers to ensure the safety of our boys. As we all know, Eastern Europe is a tinder box that we don't need to explode any more than it already has.

On that Armchair Warlord thread...

I guess I'm not sure I've seen many folks predicting that Poland, left alone to fight Russia, would wipe them out. I think I've seen folks saying (1) Russia has shown they probably wouldn't easily wipe Poland out and (2) Russia's armed forces are going to be so spent from this war in Ukraine they won't be able to effectively fight another large war or theater of war any time soon.

Poland with NATO fighting alongside...that thread doesn't really say anything on that point, but I don't think Russia has shown anything in Ukraine to think they could successfully prosecute a war against NATO, the nuclear issue aside.

NATO could cause so much disruption that a Russian military which has already shown to be disorganized and unable to conduct effective joint forces warfare would never get going.

Yah, the point of that tweet thread seems pointless.

It's not like Poland would be fighting Russia without the losses to Russia already inflicted by Ukraine or without NATO allies.

Lots of words to say “I screwed the pooch” https://t.co/jDlrhOWiuz

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) April 12, 2022